« Democrats Debate Tonight In Philly | Home | Obama Ad In Pennsylvania: He Doesn't Take Money From "Oil Company PACs Or Lobbyists" »

Poll Gives Obama Narrow Lead In Pennsylvania

The new survey of Pennsylvania from Public Policy Polling (D) gives Barack Obama a narrow lead over Hillary Clinton. Here are the numbers, compared to a week ago:

Obama 45% (+2)
Clinton 42% (-4)

Obama leads 77%-12% among African-American voters, while Clinton is ahead 49%-37% with whites. The poll was conducted Monday and Tuesday, entirely after the "small town" flap first broke out.

One caveat: PPP has been the only pollster to show Obama ahead in Pennsylvania, making this something of an outlier.


54 Comments

| Leave a comment

This is EXCELLENT NEWS!!! FOR HILLARY!!!

No "Yets" -- thanks guys

Yes, it was changed to 'one caveat'!

The story is that "bittergate" has not been a benefit to Hillary, and has cost her 4 days of campaigning.

Yeah, but it also shows more realistic AA support (or lack thereof) for Hillary. Also, while it would be surprising if Obama were actually ahead, it does give more reason to believe the polls that show him just behind by a few, rather than those few outliers (which I don't recall you calling those) that show him behind by 18%.

So 18% behind is okay, 3% ahead is an outlier.

K

I think it's pretty obvious that Hillary's ad featuring "ordinary Pennsylvania residents" (from New Jersey) is making people bitter.

IT'S ALL OVER!

BOOM_BOOM_BOOM_BOOM_BOOM!

Owwww. when two of the most accurate pollsters in the whole cycle (SUSA and PPP) have such completely different results, it really makes my head hurt.

user-pic

Pollster commenter Mike_in_CA had what sounds like a sound theory to explain Obama's numbers here.

You are somewhat correct in that the polls are showing a large spread, but one thing that they are all consistent on is Obama's "support" which hovers in and around 40 in all these polls. It's Clinton's support that appears volatile, ranging from mid 40s to high 50s. What Obama needs to do is find a way to convince some of Clinton's soft support to come over to his side by next Tuesday. It will be interesting to see the approach.

Unless Obama picks up some significant momentum heading into 4/22, it's almost certain that Clinton will win a large portion of PPP's 13% undecided voters. In prior contests, late deciders have gone for Clinton by margins of 70/30 or better. The recent polls seem to suggest Obama is within striking distance, he just needs to prove his ability to close this race.

Another way of considering the undecideds is that they may be low motivation voters and perhaps less inclined to make the effort to vote when it counts. This would, in effect, remove some undecideds and increase the weight of the respective decideds. But, after NH, there seems to be the attitude that undecideds break for the known/familiar quantity, HRC.

Actually, who gets the late undecideds seems correlate with the level of economic distress in the state. In states where things are going better economically, the late breakers went for Obama.

My sense is that if people already have all the risk they can stand in their day to day lives, and very little rational reason for hope, they're not going to be able to bring themselves to take the big risk of voting for Obama. Risk aversion is just built too strongly into their lives.

Correlate is, of course, the wrong word as this is based on absolutely no statistical analysis. If I had actual data and was runing actual statistics, I'd also be testing to see whether my "economic distress" theory held up when I controlled for the educational level of the late undecideds.

The only thing we can tell for sure form these numbers is that Bittergate is going to leave a bitter taste in Hillary's mouth.
I think Obama just proved he could handle any controversy in a general election.

I agree, what is exciting about Obama is that he seems to come back with all the arguments Democrats should make but never do. Like how did they never blast George Bush pretending that he was some down home cowboy from the Texan desert when he was the son of a president with blood the color of cobalt. I think Obama will flip McCain belly up, show the underside, the Republican hypocricy.

Uh oh, are we going to have raised expectations again so a 6 pt Clinton win is a "devastating" blow to Obama?

Nope. I'm still with gotalife, predicting a huge 20-point blowout for Hillary. She will win going away, as all of the Big Talking Heads seem to prefer.

Yup. It'll be an epochal humiliation, a springboard for the revitalization of one of the worst campaigns in history.

Not even close.

(expectations are funny things.)

user-pic

Ed Rendell said, somewhere in the neighborhood of two weeks ago, that Clinton would probably win by single digits.

It was on Morning Joe, I think. In any event, I was really surprised, but then realized that he was working on the expectations game.

No doubt so that when Clinton wins by, say, 8 points, they can claim the expectations victory.

And the media will say, about Obama, "He just can't close the deal, in spite of spending all that money". And, the Clintons will parrot this to the superdelegates.

Fascinating.

The deparity in all these polls makes me think that either polls mean nothing or that there is much craziness in PA.

After covering local PA politics for 17 years (I once spent several hours at a school board meeting hearing them fiercely debate the most cost-efficient size of trash cans), let me tell you, without a doubt, there is much craziness in PA.

There is a reason, after all, why this state is called "two big cities with Alabama in the middle."

Hey, stop making fun of Pennsyltucky!

user-pic

The polls have been all over the place, haven't they?

So, who gets the first question in tonight's debate, and what will the question be?

My guess, thanks to Hillary making an issue out of the fact that she gets called on to answer first (you know, the "I just wanted to point that out" from the last debate) is that Obama gets asked first about his comments.

Hillary? You probably blew another opportunity with that comment in the last debate.

Funny stuff.

I heard they actually flipped a coin at the Compassion Forum to determine order. Hillary won and chose to go first. Go figure.

Of course she chose to go first...anything else contributes to the facts of her being second place.

Obama go FIRST??? Heck no, in Hill's mind that would foster the belief that he is the frontrunner.

Besides she is a woman and she'll be damned if she will come second to any man.

Since Bill Clinton is now over sixty, and by his own admission, subject to becoming tired and forgetful, I though that I would help him out by putting this helpful reminder in print for him:

The Boston Globe
NATIONAL PERSPECTIVE
Clinton finds his surrogate family
Growing friendship with Bush clan pays political dividend to all

By Peter S. Canellos | April 12, 2005

WASHINGTON -- Born after his father's death, Bill Clinton has spent his life searching for connection. His need for approval was, arguably, the yearning that propelled him all the way to the White House.

Now it appears Clinton has found his surrogate family. He is part of a sprawling clan, legendary for its warmth and unity. It is a clan that is so accustomed to acquiring surrogate sons and daughters that adoption has become a part of its strength.

Clinton has become a member of the Bush clan.

Last week in Rome for the pope's funeral, the clan sat lined up in a pew: Laura, W., Dad, surrogate daughter Condoleezza, and Bill, all seeming more at ease than most families on Christmas Eve. Clinton may have looked a little out of place, like a Great Dane who thinks he belongs to a family of dachshunds, but his contented expression suggested he was exactly where he wanted to be.

Like many relationships in public life, the friendship between Bill Clinton and the Bush family is both genuine and opportunistic. At the highest levels of power, personal and political desires tend to merge: The person and the job become one.

Clinton's need to be accepted led him to speak movingly to all segments of society. Skeptics insisted that it was a ruse, intended to convince people he was someone he was not: a pure liberal to liberals, a moderate to moderates, a budget-balancing conservative to conservatives. And, politically, he was all of those things and none of them. But he was true to himself: He genuinely wanted to be respected by everyone.

Likewise, the two Bush presidents replayed their family roles on the national stage. George H. W. Bush was the genial patriarch and polite host, inviting celebrities from all walks of life to join him at the White House, at Kennebunkport, on his cigarette boat. If his friendliness seemed artificial at times, more a function of noblesse oblige than true empathy, it was all genuine to Bush: The good manners his mother taught him proved to be more deeply embedded than his politics.

George W. Bush, the family enforcer in his father's administration, relies more on loyalty than charm. He offers uncommon backing to his underlings: Bush recently draped a Presidential Medal of Freedom on the shoulders of a smiling George Tenet, the former CIA director whose overhyped intelligence briefings led the president astray. In return, Bush's underlings stay loyal to him: No presidential team has stayed as free of damaging leaks as the current one.

The with-us-or-against-us ethos carries down to the current president's supporters, a rock-solid base that lifted him to reelection in a difficult year.

Clinton's friendship with the Bushes connects with all their personal and political desires. The friendship began with Clinton and the elder Bush, two famously nice guys who happened to have been at odds in the 1992 election. Clinton's need to be forgiven for ousting the older man, and Bush's classy urge to let bygones be bygones, led them each to be very considerate of the other. Their friendship blossomed on their trip last winter to raise funds for Asian tsunami relief. They became so close that former president Bush suggested to the Houston Chronicle that ''maybe I'm the father he never had."

The current President Bush won over Clinton with demonstrations of his loyalty to the presidential club, praising his predecessor effusively while unveiling his White House portrait and helping dedicate Clinton's presidential library. Clinton repaid the debt by telling people how much he liked the president, even while many Democrats were trying to demonize him.

Now, as tends to happen in politics, the personal friendship is paying political dividends for all parties. President Bush's failure to express immediate concern for tsunami victims and his modest initial offer of aid could have been devastating to his image. But Clinton, who remains deeply popular around the world, stepped in to defend Bush and join the relief effort.

Since last year's election, Bush has made a concerted effort to woo European allies. Having Clinton in his pew at the pope's funeral in Rome did more to boost Bush's reputation overseas than a hundred bows to Jacques Chirac.

Clinton, who may be seeking to return to the White House as the president's spouse, probably senses that any viable Democrat must distance himself or herself from the Bush-hating left. What better way to demonstrate that distance than by embracing those very same Bushes?

The hug is sincere, but so is the ambition.

Peter S. Canellos is the Globe's Washington bureau chief. National Perspective is his weekly analysis of events in the capital and beyond.

user-pic

Could you just link to articles in the future?

user-pic

I agree, although I've been guilty of posting an entire article as well. I just didn't think it was that long. Imagine my horror when I clicked "Send" and saw my post take over THE ENTIRE PAGE. :o)

user-pic

These polls are BULLSHIT!!! Obama is elitist, sexist, unpatriotic, married to Michelle, flag burner, Hussein, inexperienced, Barry, elitist, stupid, lier, not his turn, won't ware flag pin, won't sing to flag, and NOT HIS TURRRRRRRNNNNN!!!!!!

Hillary has climbed the mountain. She is polished gold. God bless Hillary CLINTOOONNNNNN!!!!

user-pic

You missed "Muslim", and you didn't mention Jeremiah Wright. Your game's slippin', homie.

As an Afro-American male, I have to ask the 12% of black Pennsylvanians that still support the Clintons:

What more do they have to do to show you that they could care less about you?

user-pic

You ever see that infamous Dave Chappelle bit about the guy trying to have fish on the plane instead of chicken? I hate to be so cynical, but I sincerely believe there's some of that going on in PA--some people definitely wrestling with their inner pixies.

http://www.comedycentral.com/videos/index.jhtml?videoId=71772

i have asked myself that same question.

here's how i think about it: when the slaves were freed, there were a few who still wanted to remain on the plantations. they had grown to love their masters and had become comfortable with their condition of servitude.

now i'm not saying that's what going in this situation. i'm just saying it's something you might want to think about...

Ask Robert Johnson, or Geraldine Ferraro.

Eric, stop spinning for Hillary! Stop with your bullshit caveats. This poll was taken the last two days so it should have bittergate in there, so just shut the hell up already with your stupid caveats.

His caveat had nothing to do with bittergate. Stop seeing bias where none exists.

Um, he said it was conducted after the small town remarks meaning that it should've shown an effect but it didn't.

Calm down sir.

Did Rush Limbaugh's operation chaos go bust?

or is this part of the plan. Trick these polls into raising optimism about Obama's Pennsylvania chances.

Then surprise on primary night in defeat.

I'm not buying this poll as much as I by the poll that shows Hillary in double digit lead.

call me crazy, but i don't think Rush had as much influence as others (and myself!) previously thought.

Case in point: McCain is the Republican nominee!

Lots of "caveats" today, Eric. On this poll AND on the Gallup showing him 13 point ahead.

Can anyone else hear the frustration that Obama is not only surviving through each "campaign ending scandal" but thriving?

30 Helens agree:

When you lead in the polls, you are unelectable.

(Remember, gotalife, bad news for Obama is just around the corner... just like prosperity in Iraq!)

Points for the Kids in the Hall reference!

O my.

Polls like this make Hillary go BALLISTIC

What is left in that sink of hers to throw at Obama?

We are approaching the REDZONE..the 48 hour weekend prior to the vote where Hillary has consistently thrown out some red herring to blast Obama and generally it is lies that he will not have time or media coverage to rebut or dispute.

Hopefully, Obama throws the nuclearradioactive ball this time FIRST so Hillary has to scramble to clean up.

"Shame on you Obama!" Enough of the speeches and the BIG rallys and tatics that are right out of Carl Rove's playbook"

"Meet in PA and we'll settle this."

Your KITH reference just made my day. Only a dominating Obama debate performance tonight could bring a bigger smile to my face...

Well, it's well within any margin of error so they're effectively tied, but I have no clue what this poll really means in the context of the race except that there are still a significant number of undecided voters out there still. And polls like this make keeping expectations at a realistic level much tougher for Obama supporters.

There's no way Obama will win PA. He needs to avoid a blowout. If he keeps her victory within 10, it will be a good day.

"We are approaching the REDZONE..the 48 hour weekend prior to the vote where Hillary has consistently thrown out some red herring to blast Obama and generally it is lies that he will not have time or media coverage to rebut or dispute."

That's a good point.

It's the predictable moment coming up later this week, especially the 72 hours prior, when Hillary throws her kitchen sink of garbage and lies.

Watch the MSM pretty boys like Jake Tapper and Ben Smith lap it up like the lapdogs they are.

My hope is that this trend continues, and the bottom drops out from Hillary's campaign. That way we can all move on, lick our wounds, and turn our righteous anger where it belongs: preventing 4 more years of Bush.

Owwww. when two of the most accurate pollsters in the whole cycle (SUSA and PPP) have such completely different results, it really makes my head hurt.

If you look at the details of each poll, the discrepancies become (possibly) a little more understandable.

If you go to each polling outfit's site and look at the details, you see that PPP conducted their poll more recently than SUSA (4/14 - 4/15 vs 4/12 - 4/14) and that PPP actually surveyed over 70% more likely Dem primary voters than SUSA (1095 vs 638).

Now, I'm not a poll-reading expert, but to me this would suggest that PPP has the upper hand. Any experts care to correct me?

Ain't it over yet.....can't he finish her off yet?
No it ain't and no he can't. She will win in Pa/Id/Wv/Ky/PR maybe a few more and seeya at the convention. BTW.....more shit will emerge about your guy and no one will want him as dog catcher. This is the parties fault, no one wanted to do the job of vetting. They wanted to force him down the throats of the nation. Like I said months ago.....vet him then or vet him now, they choose the wrong time. Too frickin bad. This is what the party is really thinking.

http://www.nysun.com/editorials/miracle-philadelphia

My parrot won't shit if I line his cage with the NY Sun. He says, "That's redundant."

Kefa, she certainly will win those states, but it will be too late. And "BTW"....more "shit" will emerge about your girl. How do I know? Because like you, I just know it! I just KNOW IT!

Hey genious, that Idaho election you list in your post is a REPUBLICAN primary. Given that Hillary has attaked Barack with the republican play book, I guess it only makes sense that she runs in their primary too.
If you were living in reality, you might have noticed that on Super Tuesday Barack won 83% of the vote in Idaho. Hillary almost didn't make viability.
Also, Pennsylvania is NOT a sure thing for her; otherwise, she wouldn't have gone 100% negative like she is doing in most of the state. Her peeps know that they have screwed up with this bitter bs, but they can not back her out of it now and look like they have no message control.
Congrats! You deserve her.

As has been pointed out before, Obama was leading in the polls going into NH. I suggest taking a really deep breath and sticking with Obama's own prediction of holding Clinton to 10%. Even if he blows her away tonight (which he no doubt will), there are too many undecideds in PA who have lately been moving toward Clinton at the end. Given her major lead going into this round and the depth of her base, I'm keeping the champagne in the fridge and the stogies in the humidor for now.

user-pic

As I've said several times, there's so much noise in these polls that they mean -- bupkes. We'll know on the 22nd, not before.

My PA prediction: a tie. But what do I know? Bupkes.

Peace,
Paul

And 5 endorsements today for our future president senator Obama, a pretty good day...

2 Super Delegates from North Carolina
1 Super Delegate from Indiana
and Bruce Springsteen and the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette PA

Leave a comment

Recommended Reader Posts

  • Unwritten...
    by stillidealistic
  • BABIES, RACCOONS AND HEALTH CARE
    by dickday
  • Two Dreamers, by Dorothea Lange
    by Rutabaga Ridgepole
  • Tsunami Wave: Will Wipe Out Republican Party
    by coonsey
  • OBVIOUSLY, YOU AREN'T A HUNTER.....
    by wvbiker
  • The Stupack Amendment played politics with women's lives and won.
    by J. Clarence
  • wooden projects
    by kubaser
  • holly colorado
    by blumun
  • boxes generator
    by boluwel
  • short stories
    by lumacer



  • Resources

    The Palin Effect

    GOP Map Of Sleaze

    Tire Swinging

    The Final Debate

    World of Sleaze

    All About Sarah

    The Presidential Debates: Round 2

    The Vice-Presidential Debates: Biden v. Palin

    Critic or Cheerleader The Definitive McCain Iraq Timeline

    The John McCain John Hagee Timeline

    Masthead

    Editor-in-Chief
    Josh Marshall

    Reporter-Bloggers
    Elana Schor
    Eric Kleefeld



    Subscribe to this blog's feed.

    Advertise Liberally
    Share
    Close Social Web Email

    "To" Email Address

    Your Name

    Your Email Address