Clinton by 20.

Obama's meltdowns continue.

Supers go to Clinton to win the nomination then destroy mcwar in the general.

President Hillary Clinton and the Clintons stay undefeated to give us three victories.

Run Obama, lose three in a row.

The choice is clear.

So, we're still waiting for those FEC filings....2 minutes and counting...

I read somewhere that Obama picks up 3.75points for every day he campaigns in a state, while Clinton picks up 2.5 - which leaves a net of 1.25 for Obama when they both campaign. I have no idea where/how they came up with those #'s but assuming it is true (a big assumption) he should close about 5 points from Thurs polls by the election.
Sadly, I think PA is a really tough state for him. Lots of Nash McCabe's out there looking for excuses not to vote for him.

I really think Obama's biggest problem in PA is the perception that he hasn't 'earned his way to the Presidency'. They see him coming out of nowhere and not paying his dues and to blue collar people with a high school (if that) edu, that is very personal. I think they see HRC work her whole life and put up with a lot of crap and now something good is happening to her - a bit of a metaphor for their lives (or what they would hope to be a metaphor). With Obama coming a long and stealing HRC's dreams without putting in HIS time, it is almost like he is stealing their own.

Not very rational, but I think voting is rarely that sadly.

Well, that makes sense.

A week ago, the arg poll had Clinton ahead by 20, so the same poll taken 7 days later---after the wall to wall idiocy about sf, and then Stephanococcus on abc, etc. that poll now has him down by 13 instead of 20---probably statistical noise. With the normal margin of error, and the late breakers going for Clinton, anything less than 62 percent for Hillary (say 52percent?) will be a huge disappointment for her. But the superdelegates will be duly impressed and will nominate her anyway.

If colored people don't like it, Hillary has an old campaign slogan ready---"screw em".

Zogby breaking late to Clinton is the equivalent of SUSA predicting a 10 point win on the eve of the primary.

The Clinton-Obama photoshop challenge. My personal favorite is #11, but I liked #28 a lot, too.

What has been the history of this polling company with regard to their previous polls and real time outcomes?

I'm predicting a 15 point Hillary win. So about 57-42 is where I'm predicting it will end up being. And we'll all keep on being subjected to this travelling show until June, when Hillary will be behind in all measures and the superdelegates will finally come and go for the necessary amount for Obama.

And in the meantime, like in these PA polls, the Dems will be losing ground to McSame.

Not that I'm bitter about this. Not at all. I'm resilient and happy.

Clearly PA is Hillary's to lose. We shouldn't disillusion ourselves differently. Obama will lose, barring Divine Intervention. That said, if he keeps it below 10 points, he can spin this as a victory. Particularly since he was down by twenty points three weeks ago.

Frankly, I'm looking forward to the IN contest. That should be the tie-breaker.