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Poll: Clinton Leads By 10 Points In Pennsylvania
The new InsiderAdvantage poll of Pennsylvania gives Hillary Clinton a ten-point lead here, not significantly changed from their last poll on April 9:
Clinton 49% (+1)
Obama 39% (+1)
From the internals: Clinton leads 46%-40% among men, and 51%-39% among women. She also leads 54%-33% with white voters, while Obama is ahead 71%-25% among African-Americans.
This poll gives Clinton a wider lead than many others, but it's not wildly out of the ballpark.
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My guess: Clinton wins by 8.
And doesn't make an appreciable dent in popular vote or delegats.
April 21, 2008 4:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
Good guess - I don't have a clue, so I'll go with you.
April 21, 2008 4:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
An interesting analysis today at the Kos. The conclusion is that SE PA is systematically underrepresented by the polls. Ttujo predicts HRC by 2 points.
Highly recommended for the numerically inclined:
http://ttujoe.dailykos.com/
April 21, 2008 4:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
I am guessing 6, but it comes to the same thing. Even the 10 pt win which this poll predicts is not enough.
April 21, 2008 4:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
In an earlier post, I figured it to be somewhere from 8 - 11 points.
Never mind that she had to win by 26 to even have a shot to close the gap; if she hits double digits it will be spun by the media and Hillbots as some kind of huge victory that proves only she can win in November.
Sometimes, I just wish for a huge asteroid to end all our misery.
April 21, 2008 4:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
I hear what you are saying, but don't you think that it will be good to have PA over and done, quite regardless of the outcome. This interim between elections has been unbelievably nasty and I agree with Josh Marshall that this is largely a function of no voting to force each side back away from its own spin. Once PA votes tomorrow, we will be back in the thick of voting and pretty soon it will all be over and we can end this interminable primary.
April 21, 2008 4:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
O my god - I can't wait for this to be over.
I am so ready for the damn general election.
April 21, 2008 4:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
I hear you.
April 21, 2008 4:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
Interesting post at The American Prospect, predicting an Obama win. I have no idea. But the reasoning is interesting, and a nice read if you've got the jitters about tomorrow.
http://www.prospect.org/cs/articles?article=why_obama_will_win_pennsylvania
April 21, 2008 11:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sometimes, I just wish for a huge asteroid to end all our misery
I feel your pain.
April 21, 2008 5:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
My guess is Hillary needs to win by about 15% to 20% to make any material pickup in delegates, and she needs to do that for pretty much all of the remaining cotests.
I don't see it happening.
April 21, 2008 4:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
Eric, this poll has Clinton and Obama essentially tied among 18-29 year-old voters.
Yes, that's wildly out of the ballpark.
April 21, 2008 4:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
closer to her "supposed" internal polling that was "supposedly" leaked to Drudge.
e x p e c t a t i o n s!
April 21, 2008 4:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
I just said this below - but I can't believe any one believes Drudge for any reason.
April 21, 2008 4:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
Indeed. Drudge simply has no credibility.
April 21, 2008 4:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
BHO will do better than this with African-Americans and men.
April 21, 2008 4:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
"Obama breaks promise to have positive campaign;
degrades into putdowns and jabs against Clinton
UPDATE #3 | With one day to go before a crucial U.S. presidential vote, Democrats Barack Obama has stepped-up his
attacks against Hillary Clinton after promising to run a positive and upbeat campaign."
Clinton by 20.
April 21, 2008 4:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
I love that you can attack Obama for not being positive (when he hasn't been negative), when your own candidate is the queen of negative. What hypocrites, apparently you get that from your queen.
April 21, 2008 4:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
No No No! You said 30. I'm holding you to that and that you'll go away if you don't beat your spread.
April 21, 2008 4:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
Typo, I meant 20.
Sorry, I am not perfect like your hero.
I admit mistakes like Clinton.
April 21, 2008 4:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
you had expanded your previous 20 point prediction to 30. now you're walking it back. care to flip-flop some more?
April 21, 2008 5:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
you lie as good as her too
April 21, 2008 5:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, we nailed down the bet at 20 percentage points for Hillary. The rest of us are confident that this is enough of an error to avoid wiggling out of... "oh, well, if Obama hadn't gone negative the last day, then I would've been right..." Although, that 10 point shift is telling.
I believe the terms of the agreement were to 'go away' from TPM and to never, ever make another prediction on this site.
April 21, 2008 5:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
So what's he supposed to do? Just stand there while she tosses the kitchen sink at him. I say good for Obama. Who's the pussy now, Imus?
April 21, 2008 5:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
Don't forget Suffolk poll which gives her a 10 point lead....and ARG which gives her a 13 point lead....however it is true, that most polls show her winning between 5 points to 9 points....either way, they all agree that she is going to win....just how big, is up for debate.
April 21, 2008 4:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
To be nigglingly accurate, they do not all agree that she is going to win. PPP (one of the most accurate firms all year) predicts a narrow win for Obama. That said, I agree that she is going to win tomorrow and the only real question is by how much. I am predicting a 6 pt Clinton victory - an outcome that I would find very satsifying as an Obama supporter.
April 21, 2008 4:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
But you told us a few days ago that it was SUSA that was the only one worth anything, and they're showing the Shrillary lead down to 6 points.
So are you *now* saying ignore SUSA polling?
The Hillbots mimic their candidate in the what's-today's-spin game.
You were in favor of the SUSA poll before you were against it?
April 21, 2008 5:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
Can we just have a poll blackout? We are getting nowhere with this. Let's just see what happens tomorrow.
April 21, 2008 4:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
And people, if you're sick and tired of this primary (and some of the comments), go to "Inspired by Hillary in da' House...." and share your nominations for worst songs of all time.
(You can thank A Missouri Voter for this).
It's a chance to torment people. Make them have bits of the worst songs in the world running through their brains for the rest of the afternoon.
It sure beats working!
April 21, 2008 4:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
only 71% from African-Americans?
has there been any primary or caucus where that was the final exit poll data?
and the same question for the under 30s?
April 21, 2008 4:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Was just about to post the same thing. If he wins less than 80 percent of the black vote in any remaining state, I'll eat my hat.
April 21, 2008 4:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
Doesn't Obama poll nationally around 88% of the African American vote?
April 21, 2008 4:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
just because other blacks voted for obama in other states, don't mean same in pennsylvania.... don't forget all those black people who endorsed her and is working hard for her to win....maybe the poll is right:)
GO HILLARY!!!!!!!!!!
however, i would like to see atleast a 15 point win:)
April 21, 2008 4:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
You know, I get why you're excited, but I hate to see the fall that's on the way.
And there are probably more middle aged women working for Obama than Clinton has AA voters -
Not that I give a shit, really. That's so picky I think I may puke.
It was originally about the credibility of this poll, where it did have some relevance.
April 21, 2008 4:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, but Rendell and Nutter have the fix on in Philly, so 71% in PA...
April 21, 2008 4:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
Reporter: And what do you call your campaign?
Hillary: The Aristocrats!!!!!
Sorry bout that, I couldn't stop thinking about it.
April 21, 2008 4:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
ROFLMAO!!!!!
O my god - that's perfect and I hate myself for not thinking of it.
April 21, 2008 5:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
so many polls coming out today has caused my head to hurt. I get it, HRC will win...
April 21, 2008 4:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
Figure Senator Clinton for an 8.9 point victory.
I'll be happy with anything less, thrilled with analysis of the undecided PA voters a few days ago, and it would seem to possibly present a much rosier picture for Senator Obama, but I am uncomfortable with whatever weights were used.
April 21, 2008 4:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
Shoot - my stupid post got mangled. Bottom line summary...
Some of the polling data actually looks quite good for Senator Obama, and here's to hoping! Sadly, I'm calling PA for Senator Clinton at 8.9%
April 21, 2008 4:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
HillaryClinton08: I've been canvassing in Philly for the last three weeks and believe me,Obama has a total lock on the AA vote. There is no Nutter effect. I believe there will be record AA turnout.
April 21, 2008 4:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
I see you folks are cracking under the pressure.
If you can't stand the heat ........
April 21, 2008 4:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
LOLOLOLOLOL!!!!!
lame.
April 21, 2008 5:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
"I see you folks are cracking under the pressure."
What pressure? Our candidate has the popular vote lead, pledged delegate lead, most states won - you have the weight of the world on your shoulders right now. lol
April 21, 2008 5:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
Never ever forget that our candidate also has $51 million in his warchest and Hillary-Joe has none - she has a warchest full of IOUs.
I couldn't be happier.
April 21, 2008 5:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
For the most part, we believe gotalife to be a troll and a provocateur. I guess the person spends their day trolling through various blogs and with motives unknown to us. Thus, any communication with the person either meaningless or a distraction. For myself, its the former. My advice, don't go for the bait.
I believe in "good-faith participation." Gotalife's comments on TPM have been anything but.
Sincerely
April 21, 2008 5:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
You should read Otto F's comments, or Kefa's, or MarkSimmons.
Gotalife looks damn reasonable by comparison.
April 21, 2008 5:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
No amount of money, favorable press, AA votes is going to save Barack Obama. A front runner near the finishline cannot play expectations game. The bottomline is he should WIN period.
Like, I have been saying previously, Barack is going to loose bigtime tomorrow by 67 to 33%. His AA vote percentage and AA turnout is going to decline for the first time even in Philadelphia. That will be the big story tomorrow night. He never led in any polls. All the polls which showed some movement for him in the last few weeks are all pollsters' expectations game not real movement.
Exit polls are going to show even more shocking results. Approximately ~50% of Hillary voters are NOT going to vote for Obama in the GE. Half of them will sit out and half of them will vote for McCain.
April 21, 2008 5:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
Can I have some of whatever you appear to be on?
April 21, 2008 5:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
So you get to decide all by yourself?
LOLOLOL!!!!
Here's an objective measure - Obama is still bringing in donations. Clinton has maxed out her donors. Which one is the winner here? The one who is perceived as a good bet to put your money on.
That ain't Clinton.
and if you don't think the SDs aren't watching that money thing - think again.
April 21, 2008 5:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, I agree that if tomorrow's vote played out as you expect, that would be the big story tomorrow night. I am not really expecting reality to shape up as you predict, but I certainly agree that if that happened it would be big news.
April 21, 2008 5:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
So if Hillary doesn't get the nomination (which she's already lost, btw), her supporters will sit it out?
I kind of doubt this. Even a person as apparently witless as Hillary will realize that she has no political future unless she does everything she can to ensure an Obama victory. If Obama loses, she'll be out of politics after her current term expires; maybe sooner.
April 21, 2008 8:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
A Pennsylvania Polling Question:
Does anyone have any information about the first time registered democrats, such as young people. Independents and Republicans who have switched their registrations this year. Do the polls include those voters in their sampling. If not, those hundreds of thousands of newcomers could be an unmeasured wild card. Can any of you shed some light on this question?
April 21, 2008 5:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
liam - I don't know. Why don't you go check one of the polling sites and see if they have breakdowns?
April 21, 2008 5:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm disappointed by the Clinton campaign. They usually take their dirtiest shot on the Friday before a primary so they can try to dominate the weekend- this time they waited til Monday. They're off their game.
If they win by 6 points or less, the MSM is not going to spin their way this time!
April 21, 2008 5:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
It also has Obama winning only 75% of the black vote with Clinton getting 25%.
Does anyone really think those numbers are accurate? I sure don't.
April 21, 2008 5:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
Is it a psychological term for how Hillacrats be behaving. I find it remarkable how they will set their dignity so low just to get a rise out of someone. Even if they were serious, common sense does not sink in with them. It would seem like they hate these candidates on a personal level outside the election
April 21, 2008 5:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
Did anyone else notice that this poll has 12% undecideds?!
That's enough to swing the race to Obama or lead to a total Clinton domination. This poll is worthless with such a high undecided number!
April 21, 2008 5:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
All right, since we're playing predictions, I'll predict an Obama win by 10 points.
Of course, I'll be wrong. But close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades, so I might just as well engage in wildly optimistic imaginings.
April 21, 2008 5:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
LOL!!!
I am constantly looking for that red dress - I love your comments.
April 21, 2008 5:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
declare her dead! declare her the worst thing this side of the devil! declare her untrustworthy! declare her a republican!
you and your young tech saavy friends in the media just keep declaring away.
and just like the tortoise racing against the hare, hrc and her supporters will just keep nibbling, and nibbling and nibbling away at the "mathematically insurmountable obama lead" all the way through the remaining 12m votes and 10 state primaries and caucuses yet to be held and we'll see where things stand.
maybe we get it done. maybe we come up short. i can't predict. what i can predict is that if hrc goes on a run where she takes 7 of the last 10 (or 10 of the last 14 contests), makes for a pretty compelling case that she's got the demonstrated momentum and key state support to win in november (versus the guy who's demonstrated the ability to raise and spend records amounts of money in the nomination but who just can't seem to close the deal, and who's bloom may have fallen from the rose).
getting hrc-friendly media narratives is virtually impossible in this obama-biased media atmosphere, but certain narratives just can't be denied no matter what obstructionist efforts are waged.
unlike you obama-ites, i'm looking forward to the remaining contests in this race. i actually feel optimistic and confident.
how about you kids? :)
April 21, 2008 5:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
Maybe, but that justification presupposes that she will take 7 of the last 10, which seems rather a touch unlikely. Of the remaining 10 (PA, Guam, NC, IN, WV, OR, KY, PR, SD & MT) she is only favored to win 4. Four of the remaining six are heavily favored to go to Obama (NC, OR, SD & MT), leaving only Guam and IN are in much doubt, which means that she would take 6 of the last ten at most and (much more probably) 4 of the last ten at the least. Is "4 of the last 10" a "pretty compelling case that she's got the demonstrated momentum," especially when one of those four is Puerto Rico?
April 21, 2008 6:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
Momentum don't mean shit--delegates do. Obama has this wrapped up. He has NC and OR and MT and SD and Guam nailed shut. He will probably win IN. He'll win NC by enough to offset any conceivable Clinton win in PA, delegate-wise. Hillary will win KY and WV and PR. He's leading by 166 pledged delegates now. She my cut that to 146 by the end. Maybe.
Why should the superdelegates flock to her after all this? Momentum means squat. His win in WI means as much as hers in KY. Most of the remaining superdelegates favor him anyway. Everyone is just waiting for a good enough reason to kiss her off. Hillary, especially after her absurd self-admitted lies about Bosnia, hasn't a ghost of a chance of defeating McCain.
April 21, 2008 9:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
My prediction: if HRC doesnt win big tomorrow night, and the polls show BO lead increasing in Indiana, she will drop out before the Indiana primary...
April 21, 2008 6:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
THIS IS GREAT NEWS FOR OBAMA. I HOPE IT REACHES ABOUT 15% BEFORE THE PRIMARY
April 21, 2008 6:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
Cant we just say we won the Iraq war and go home?
Conversely, can't we just "say" Hillary is a fighter and end this?
April 21, 2008 6:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
But undecideds usually break to Clinton, so if I used this poll, I'd put her ahead by 12.
I think if Obama manages to somehow get less than a 10 point loss, which is not something I am actually predicting btw, than it will be a win for him.
Frankly I think that anything less than the 19-26 points he was behind by March 17th there, depending on which poll you were looking at, will be a victory. That being said, a single digit loss for Obama wold be huge. Anything bigger will be heralded by our oh-so intelligent MSM as being a really Big Deal for Hillary. Ignoring that she needs a blow out of gotalife proportions, say 20-30 points, for it to really matter. And then repeat that in just about every other state left. Barring that? Even a 15 point victory won't matter too much in the long run. Which please, let this race sooner, than later. So tired of this.
April 21, 2008 6:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
SurveyUSA shows a tighter race (6 points) and only 2% undecided.
Frankly, I want to discount this poll entirely by virtue of the high undecided number. Coupled with the margin of error, the actual results could be as much as 15 points removed from this poll. That's too much potential for difference. I don't think this poll tells us anything with so many undecideds.
April 21, 2008 6:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
After reading most of the posts on this site, I'm more convinced than ever that Obama will represent a complete disaster for the Democratic party.
By the time November comes around, all he'll have supporting him will be the die-hard Obamanians that populate the blogsphere and few else.
Most of Hillary's support tends to be much more moderate if not a little to the right. I think by the time of the general election, fully 1/3 to 1/2 of her support will move to McCain.
Please explain how Obama is going to win if he can't win states like Ohio, Pennsylvania or Florida? (Yes, I'm counting Florida, because those voters who cast ballots in January and who apparently don't exist as far as Obama is concerned, will have their vote count in November)
And don't try to say that he can make it up with states like Kansas or Mississippi.
April 21, 2008 7:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'll give you Florida, but why can't he win OH and PA?
Do you mean in the primary? If so I'd say that primary results have exactly zero relation to general election results.
April 21, 2008 7:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
What?!
No drastic change b/c of Obama's "McCain will be better than Bush" gaffe?
April 21, 2008 7:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
AA vote of 25%? LOL. Yeah, right.
April 21, 2008 7:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
I want to be one of the first to congratulate Hillary Clinton on running a great campaign, and to wish her the best of luck in her continuing career as one of the most valuable members of the United States Senate.
April 21, 2008 8:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm guessing that she wins by between 6 and 16 points, but that the difference between the two figures simply don't matter, AT ALL, in the greater scheme of things, other than to put Obama closer to the number of electoral votes he needs to win than he was beforehand.
I'm also guessing that anyone foolish enough to believe that voters in Indiana or North Carolina are going to base their votes on what people in Pennsylvania think should consider getting themselves spayed and/or neutered to try and keep that kind of stupid from spreading.
April 21, 2008 9:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
Still say LOTSOFLUCKLOTSOFLUCKLOTSOFLUCK
If she gets 25% of the black vote, there are gonna be some mad folks at church next Sunday.
Hussein's back
April 21, 2008 9:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
Are you guys getting the "classmates.com" ad at the top of this page? If so, are the two photographs jiggling and bouncing around?
On my screen, it looks for all the world like masturbating teens.
Obama loses Pennsylvania. He wins the nomination, wins the the general election and assumes the presidency with a Democratic majority in the House and in the Senate.
As a result, small town Pennsylvanians experience a marked improvement in the quality of their lives. They become less embittered. Guns are not outlawed.
Their religious lives proceed unimpeded.
April 21, 2008 10:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
You're whistling past the grave yard!
April 21, 2008 10:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
sorry
the teens are gone.
Chance to win millions of dollars instead
April 21, 2008 10:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
aphoenix
was the whistling crack about the election or teen masturbation?
April 21, 2008 10:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
My reply was to CR1992.
Sorry - I have 2 teenagers and I do believe teens still DO masturbate!
This web sight needs more GIGS! Or whatever!
April 21, 2008 10:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
I find it funny that the media dismiss the AA vote. Saying thats the only reason he wins elections. But never mention that the fact women vote for Hillary because she is a woman. Why not dismiss the female vote? Also, she is getting votes because of her last name alone. Double Standards I guess.
April 22, 2008 5:08 AM | Reply | Permalink
And the AA population is a small percentage, so of course their % of votes for Obama will be big.
Its like having 2/3 voting for him as compared to 2/6
April 22, 2008 5:11 AM | Reply | Permalink