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Poll: Clinton Ahead By Ten Points In Pennsylvania
A new InsiderAdvantage poll in Pennsylvania gives Hillary Clinton a ten-point lead, up from a two-point lead last week:
Clinton 48% (+3)
Obama 38% (-5)
From the internals: Clinton leads 54%-33% among whites, and Obama is ahead 62%-22% with blacks. Clinton leads 55%-30% among women, while Obama has a 47%-42% edge with men.
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The verdict is clear: Pennsylvania is a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma.
I think we should postpone our primary until July so that more polling can be done.
April 9, 2008 11:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
That made me laugh out loud, which is quite an accomplishment for you, what with my iron lung and all.
April 10, 2008 12:10 AM | Reply | Permalink
Obama's only getting 62 percent of the black vote, with 16 percent undecided? I would be willing to bet a week's salary that number is way off.
April 9, 2008 11:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
16 Black PEOPLE might be undecided, but 16 percent? No way on this earth.
Quick anecdote: Kerry spoke at my church in Philly before the service last Sunday and I kid you not, he had 300 Black people cheering, and when Hillary was mentioned, there was dead silence. Obama pins on suits and jackets all throughout the church; only two or three Hillary buttons. I know it's anecdotal evidence, but it was really striking.
April 9, 2008 11:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
I can see how this could happen, actually. First, Hillary has the back of the young, popular African-American mayor of Philadelphia. Second, Obama's reassurances to the nation about Reverend Wright were bound to piss some black people off (which was precisely what the divide-and-conquer Clintons had hoped would happen). So I can see it.
April 10, 2008 8:42 AM | Reply | Permalink
Enough fucking polls. My goodness. Can't you guys at TPM just make a page with all the polls on them and update them daily for those actually interested in them?
(And I only clicked on this to make this comment. I'm not interested.)
April 9, 2008 11:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
OMG, give it a break with the polling.
April 9, 2008 11:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
The bad thing for Obama supporters is this is the 3rd poll out in the last few days that show a trend back towards HRC.
April 9, 2008 11:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
Uh huh. Those three only interrupted by two that showed it within the margin of error, two more that showed him ahead nationally by double digits, and national GE polls that show her falling outside the MOE behind McCain.
Obama is clearly doomed.
But seriously, the vote will be what the vote will be. Enough freakin' polling. Get to work fixing this freaking nightmare of a commenting system.
Jeebus H. Christmas!!!
April 9, 2008 11:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's the Elton John effect, newfa. We're just praying that Billy Joel stays neutral.
April 9, 2008 11:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's the Elton John effect, newfa. We're just praying that Billy Joel stays neutral.
Very funny :)
April 10, 2008 12:06 AM | Reply | Permalink
Throw in a caucus like Texas, so everyone can claim victory.
April 9, 2008 11:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
And Insider Advantage came out really early today, so it begs the question, why is it posted so late as if this is news?
April 9, 2008 11:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
Scientific : 16 Black PEOPLE might be undecided, but 16 percent?
That is a really funny tremark. I love it.
April 9, 2008 11:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks for the kind words!
April 10, 2008 12:04 AM | Reply | Permalink
If this poll is right, Hillary better get to work. She needs to double this lead to have any shot at the nomination.
April 9, 2008 11:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
Next breaking news: Barry Manilow concert will net 10 million for HRC.......
April 10, 2008 12:07 AM | Reply | Permalink
Look, man, when I started using the line at bars that I "would really like to non-stop poll you on my stimulus package," I must confess that tracking polls was not what I had in mind.
April 10, 2008 12:08 AM | Reply | Permalink
Now THAT is a funny line.
April 10, 2008 4:09 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yesterday's news is tomorrow's fish n' chip paper. Everything will play out. The outcome is inevitable. So take a deep breath and live in the moment, the present. Nothing else matters.
April 10, 2008 12:22 AM | Reply | Permalink
http://blog.washingtonpost.com/sleuth/2008/04/karl_roves_awkward_moment.html
Congrats Josh!
April 10, 2008 12:59 AM | Reply | Permalink
For a full trend of the PA polls and some discussion on the recent Survey USA poll which showed Hillary with an 18-point advantage, click on this text!
April 10, 2008 1:17 AM | Reply | Permalink
aaack! Poling. Up to eyeballs.
I'm thinking of assigning a polling company to each of my 16 cats. That way, I can produce a poll every 2 hours.
April 10, 2008 1:41 AM | Reply | Permalink
Wow, you have 16 cats? I have one cat and she makes a nuisance of herself when I'm trying to work. How do you get anything done?
April 10, 2008 4:11 AM | Reply | Permalink
Well, they're not mine, precisely. They are the neighborhood cats who like to hang out in my yard. I have a bird feeder and all kinds of critters converge around it.
I've counted 16 cats, all belonging to my neighbors, and when I'm outside, they show up for some purring and petting. I have told them that if they all insist on receiving cat treats that they will be put to work. Cat treats are not cheap, ya know. A polling company sounds purrfect.
April 10, 2008 12:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Insider Advantage polls should be removed from the site, since Matt Towery is a maxed out donator for Clinton. His last poll was already unbelievable with Obama 2 % behind Clinton. This one is at least nearer at the reality, but still I can't see anything from IA as objective or neutral.
April 10, 2008 3:05 AM | Reply | Permalink
Interesting but implausible to see Obama ahead 62%-22% with blacks in Penn, another just released poll n Penn from Time, puts Hillary ahead by seven points. 48%-41%.
I find Rasmussen polls more accurate.
I think Penn's primary is going to surprise many people.
April 10, 2008 7:52 AM | Reply | Permalink
Dammit, the PA polls are all over the place. We may need an election to figure this all out!
And here I was hoping it wouldn't come to that.
April 10, 2008 8:05 AM | Reply | Permalink
Interesting but implausible to see Obama ahead 62%-22% with blacks in Penn, another just released poll n Penn from Time, puts Hillary ahead by seven points. 48%-41%.
I find Rasmussen polls more accurate.
I think Penn's primary is going to surprise many people.
April 10, 2008 8:08 AM | Reply | Permalink
How the hell does it move from 2 points to 10 like this?
I can't believe the way these polls are going back and forth. It's crazy.
April 10, 2008 8:26 AM | Reply | Permalink
I agree that we pay way too much attention to each dip and bump in polls. Having said that, though, I find the idea that Obama has only 62 percent support among blacks to be completely implausible. It would defy every single election held so far this year. There are a lot of unknowns out there, but I think it's pretty safe to assume that Obama will get at least 75 percent of the black vote in every state here on in.
April 10, 2008 8:27 AM | Reply | Permalink
Ok, as a PA resident, I want to point out something these polls continue to ignore, the issue is not what demographic is supporting which candidate, it is where th support is coming from regionally. Whoever wins Philly and its suburbs will win the nomination. This is what happen when Casey went up against Rendell in the state's primary. Casey won 47 districts, yet lost the 10 around Philly. As such, Casey lost the nomination since the 10 Philly districts dwarf the rest of PA's democratic electorate.
Rendell is loved in Philly. Nutter is an unknown in relation to his ability to get people to the polls. So the issue is will these Philly districts support Obama or support Hillary.
I think in the end, PA will be a squeaker like Missouri. Hillary may win a lot of districts, yet I feel she will lose the state due to the lose of Philly.
April 10, 2008 8:28 AM | Reply | Permalink
New Time poll is +5 for Hillary in PA
April 10, 2008 8:35 AM | Reply | Permalink
oh man, a few facts for you losers. Obama is a big supporter of bio-fuels, mostly because of Illinois and Iowa farm interests, but it is increasingly clear that ethanol and other bio-fuels are net-net carbon emitters. In other words, they're harmful to the environment and contribute to global warming, as well as costing a lot of budget funds for subsidies (8$ billion annually) and it is driving up grain prices, contributing to global poverty and hunger.
Obama is bad mouthing pharma and biog oil. I guess he has to, to placate you losers. But these are the nice people who provide you with essential services and products. And you want to destroy them, out of spite. idiots.
And AA? Once again, most Americans are incredibly ignorant, and I'm glad to see the USD hitting new lows because it keeps you morons at home, but man oh man, Africa-Americans really are the bottom of the barrel, although you're not supposed to admte this obvious fact, obvious if you look at just about any statistic on educational or intellectual achievement. But I'll let you in on one simple fact. Attend any string theory conference. Know how many black people you'll see. Zero. That's because in fields where "diversity" isn't a ticket in the door, AAs simply cannot compete. Why should they when HLS offers scholarships just to sit in class wearing a FUBU sweatshirt and blathering on every so often about "400 years blah blahblah"
April 10, 2008 8:47 AM | Reply | Permalink
Sieg Heil!!
April 10, 2008 8:58 AM | Reply | Permalink
THIS IS GREAT NEWS! FOR OBAMA!!!!!
April 10, 2008 9:06 AM | Reply | Permalink
MiloB - take off that hood for a minute - I can't quite hear ya. And don't bring that burning cross in the house - leave it outside.
April 10, 2008 9:13 AM | Reply | Permalink
actually, I stand for progress. The problem with the left wing of the Dem party is that you people want programs that are often useless and even harmful, but leave you feeling good about yourselves. NAFTA. WTO. Hugely beneficial to both the US and to the rest of the world. And man oh man, I recall asking the anti-trade people if they could explain exactly how WTO works. Not one ever had a clue. As for the anti-trade werkers in PA? Fucking losers who are afraid and unwilling to compete on an even playing field.
AA? A patently ridiculous idea. We should, for example, admit unqualified, or at least less qualified, people to law skool because there is some undefinable "benefit" to having black students qua black students. And undeniably their consistently lower LSAT scores and bar pass rates demonstrate that they are less qualified. Result? Less qualified lawyers. And less incentive for African-Americans to excell academically. why bother if the bar is set much lower for you?
Well, I am happy as a clam, in three hours I will be banging my GF, a girl (almost) inappropriately younger, and a real firecracker to boot.
April 10, 2008 9:22 AM | Reply | Permalink
You know exactly what time you'll be with your "GF"? is that when her shift starts at the local bordello?
Actually this makes me happy, we won't have to see any new hate filled & ignorant postings from you for 3 or 4 minutes.
April 10, 2008 10:38 AM | Reply | Permalink
Milo B's order tracking number shows that UPS will be delivering his inflatable girlfriend in a few hours time.
April 10, 2008 11:12 AM | Reply | Permalink
Stuck in a Tier 3 law school and angry about it, Milo B?
Maybe you should've practiced the self-reliance you preach & studied harder for the LSAT...
April 10, 2008 11:42 AM | Reply | Permalink
ahhh
Read em & weep, obamamites. Your guy's clay feet are being shown, little by little. Survey USA is right! It'll be AT LEAST 18 % !
He's an inexperienced, left wing radical LIBERAL like Ted Kennedy and John Kerry and William AYERS.
This country will never put that FAKE, climbing, ambitious, anti white, anti JEW, racist in our beloved White House. Especially with a wife like "For the first time in my life I am proud of my country" and "America is a mean country" hate-filled, chip-on-the-shoulder wife.
Forgettaboutit !
Hillary, YOU'RE IN!! We love you Hillary. Sock it to em!
Rae
April 10, 2008 5:45 PM | Reply | Permalink