O come on!

Obviously these polls are meaningless now - down 2, up 10 down 5 up 6.

Jeez.

I think we can safely say that he is somewhere between tied and maybe 6 or 7 behind.

The SUSA definitely seems to be an outlier. And if Obama is within 10 of her two weeks out, she is screwed (not that she isn't screwed anyway, seeing as she needs to pull out 20% wins in all states from here on out)

oh man, a few facts for you losers. Obama is a big supporter of bio-fuels, mostly because of Illinois and Iowa farm interests, but it is increasingly clear that ethanol and other bio-fuels are net-net carbon emitters. In other words, they're harmful to the environment and contribute to global warming, as well as costing a lot of budget funds for subsidies (8$ billion annually) and it is driving up grain prices, contributing to global poverty and hunger.

Obama is bad mouthing pharma and big oil. I guess he has to, to placate you losers. But these are the nice people who provide you with essential services and products. And you want to destroy them, out of spite. idiots.

And AA? Once again, most Americans are incredibly ignorant, and I'm glad to see the USD hitting new lows because it keeps you morons at home, but man oh man, Africa-Americans really are the bottom of the barrel, although you're not supposed to admte this obvious fact, obvious if you look at just about any statistic on educational or intellectual achievement. But I'll let you in on one simple fact. Attend any string theory conference. Know how many black people you'll see. Zero. That's because in fields where "diversity" isn't a ticket in the door, AAs simply cannot compete. Why should they when HLS offers scholarships just to sit in class wearing a FUBU sweatshirt and blathering on every so often about "400 years blah blahblah"

the issue is, how many of the clinton supporters who would vote for mccain if obama is the nominee plan to also vote for mccain even if clinton is the nominee, they prefer her to obama but mccain to her did the survey ask that question, i.e., where are the reagan democrats headed

Okay, before we get ourselves all upset and foodfighty over the 26 and 16 percent figures, let's remember that that translates into (very roughly) 13% and 8% respectively of total Democratic primary voters. I don't think either of those fitures are terribly out of line with the number of Democrats that typically cross over and vote Republican in the general.

That said, it's easy for those of us on both sides to say we don't blame the people on our side for crossing over but do blame the ones on the others because, well, our brains are toxed out on partisanship hormones (there has to be such a thing as partisanship hormones, right?). That doesn't mean I have some Olympian detachment about it--I do blame the Hillary supporters threatening to jump more than the Obama jumpers because many of them know she only gets the nomination if she steals it--but it does mean I acknowledge that my view of the world may be uncontrollably biased.

And that last acknowledgement is one, I think, we all need to be doing all the time as this thing drags on and on and on.

So, honestly, I don't blame the DLC'ers among Hillary's supporters for threatening to jump because, well, McCain is their hero and we always new it. I also don't really blame the one's who say that for reasons of racism. They're just ignorant, and mostly old, morons and we can't change their whole view of the Universe before November so why get mad about it?

There is, however, one particular slice of Hillary supporters threating to jump that with whom I do have a problem. Specfically, I'm referring to that subset of her female supporters who are voting primarily on the basis of identify who've worked themselves into a state of complete fury over the fact that Obama is beating her. I'm talking about the women who have convinced themselves that Barack Obama is personally responsible for every stupid or offensive or sexist thing that's been said in a blog comment by some dumbass with a computer and an ISP (while simultaneously absolving Hillary of responsibility for offensive things said by even her top surrogates.) The ones who've come to hate Obama and refer to him as "smug" and "arrogant" because they're projecting every slight or injury they ever suffered in their life that they attribute (rightly or wrongly) to sexism onto Obama.

I'm talking about people like the woman who called into Talk of the Nation yesterday to say that she was so mad about the things she's read people saying about Hillary on blogs that she's going to vote for McCain if Obama wins.

John McCain has vowed to keep us in Iraq indefinitely, vowed to continue the process of having sons and daughters shipped back in a metal box in the dead of night until some unachievable goal has been accomplished. John McCain has a "health care plan" that basically adds up to nothing more than more tax breaks for rich people. John McCain has vowed to appoint more people like Roberts and Alito to the Court--people, that is to say, who are eager to reverse Roe v. Wade. People who buy into the ultimate goal of the "pro-life" movement about which they are increasingly frank: the reversal of Griswold v. Connecticut--the decision that said the Constitution grants people a zone of privacy in private matters such as, specifically, birth control, into which the state may not interfere.

That's the guy you'll have to vote fore if that awful, awful man Barack Obama beats your Hillary? Are you kidding me?

I don't know what part of the 26% of the jumpers for Hillary is made up of women who feel this way. I do know that I'm seeing and hearing more and more comments from them here and elsewhere. And, frankly, I rather doubt that being lectured on logic by a man is going to change their opinions but I do hope that some of their sisters on my side of the debate can talk them out of this folly.

The sooner the better, because the truth is that Hillary's chances of getting the nomination are down to about 1 in 10.

Dudes; stop the infighting. This thing is over, and Barack is going to be the nominee. Time to come together and support him. Forget the primary polls. Time to focus on Obama-McCain.

One would assume that since you insist on posting such obvious drivel that you would at least make a stab at offering proof.

Obama has never made any statements which could be interpreted---by a sane person---as calling Hillary's character "bad."

The quality of her character is evident in her campaign.

They are asking the wrong question. They should be asking Hillary supporters how many of them will vote for McCain if Hillary is the nominee of the Democrats. You might get some very interesting results. I would not be very surprised to find that many of that same 25% who say the will not vote for Obama, will also not vote for Hillary.

Given a choice between a black man, and a white woman, they will opt for the white woman, but then given a choice between the white woman and white man, they will opt for the man.

Do not be surprised if there is not a lot of that going on.
Reagan Democrats are probably a great part of it. There is a segment of registered democrats that are not willing to elect a black president, or a female president. Many of them will vote to stop the black candidate from getting the nomination, and then vote to stop the woman candidate in the general election.

Does anyone know of a serious poll that has asked those Hillary supporters what percentage of them will abandon her in the general election in favor of McCain?

oh how ridiculous, ever since Casey v PP Roe has been dead. In those states that wish to outlaw abortion, they have already effectively done so, as is their right in a democratic federal state. Note: I am pro-choice, but Roe is bad law and should be overturned just as a matter of law, but in effect it already has.

I think Colin Powell did an excellent job of addressing this charge against Obama in the recently posted interview on TPM's main page.