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Pennsylvania Polls Don't Show Any Major "Small Town" Effect

The Pennsylvania polls are coming fast and furious today -- and while most show a slight uptick in support for Hillary, they all appear to indicate that Obama's "small town" comments are not yet causing any big movement.

The new CNN poll of polls shows a slight uptick in Hillary Clinton's Pennsylvania lead from late last week, but only from a four-point lead to a six-point lead. The new figure: Clinton 49%, Obama 43%.

Meanwhile, the new Rasmussen poll has Clinton leading Barack Obama by nine points, not significantly changed since a week ago:

Clinton 50% (+2)
Obama 41% (-2)

As for primary voters' reactions to the "small town" comments, 51% disagree with the remarks, but on the other hand only 37% of respondents said it represented an elitist view, versus 48% who did not think so.

A SurveyUSA poll finds that a majority of people in the Harrisburg area -- the just the sort of blue-collar place we might concern ourselves with -- were not offended by the remarks, with Democrats not offended by a 62%-33% margin.

And a new Susquehanna poll has the race narrowing since a month ago, but with a very high undecided number:

Clinton 40% (-5)
Obama 37% (+6)

Late Update: The Susquehanna poll came out yesterday, but the interviews actually predate the "small town" comments.

Late Late Update: The SurveyUSA poll was just of the Harrisburg region, not the state as a whole.


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O she's killing him.


Way to go Clinton - you have tromped all over your own party, pissed off thousands of loyal Democrats and this is all you got for it.

Good going, sweetheart. Yah, you'd make a crackerjack president.

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If these numbers hold, the bitterness of the Clinton campaign will increase exponentially.

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I guess all those Pennsylvanians didn't buy the crap that a whole bunch of elitist talking hairdoes have been trying to shove down their throat.

Funny.

But, but, but...

... Howard Wolfson told me that these comments raised serious issues that matter to PA voters.

You don't mean to suggest that Mr Wolfson is full of hot air, do you? Perish the very thought...

May I just say that I have been so proud not only to see my candidate treat the American electorate as if it were composed of adults but then also to see the voters respond in a way that indicates that they are. The last few weeks have gone a long way to reassure me about our chances for turning things around in this country.

NEW OBAMA AD ATTACKS CLINTON ON LOBBYIST TIES!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jS2UkRSUoPo

Ouch. And He's got enough $$$ from REAL people to put on a full, ONE MINUTE ad.

Is that actually an Obama ad? It doesn't have his name on it or an "I approve this message" voiceover or anything.

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Funny.

You almost do have to laugh - it's been one of the most amazing spectacles since the Republicans tried to shove Terry Schiavo's corpse down the country's throat.


What do you expect for a overblown statement driven by the news media to help Clinton.

weak bait.
weak story.
HRC failed.

Could you please remove that HUGE picture of HRC on your front page, just downsize a little, too early in the day to stomach that much "Hillary", a person I once respected and now loathe. Thank you.

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CT Voter - I wouldn't be Bill Clinton for all the money on earth. He's real apt to get waken up some 2AM by a pillow on his face, with Hillary laying on top of it for all she's worth.

Bitter ain't in it - she's going to have many a sleepless night over a bottle of Wild Turkey asking herself: why did I do those shots in public? Why did I decide to tell people I'd shot a duck? WHAT THE HELL WAS HE THINKING TELLING PEOPLE I'M 60 YEARS OLD FORGETS THINGS?????

And it's about then that Bill needs to wake up and slip out the window as fast as he can.

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Eric, you have it wrong when you say,
"A SurveyUSA poll finds that a majority of Pennsylvanians were not offended by the remarks, with Democrats not offended by a 62%-33% margin."

That SurveyUSA poll only polled the Harrisburg, PA area. Check it out and do a correction, please. Thanks.

BTW, can we get a link to the actual SurveyUSA poll cited which shows Hillary ahead by 14 points? Your link only goes to a media site, which offers only summaries. Thanks.

The SurveyUSA poll is two posts down, Donna.

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Yes, I know it is two posts down, flufferwink. That is the link which only takes a reader to a media site, but not to the actual poll data. I put my request in that post, also, asking for a link to the poll itself. [maybe Eric is too busy with upcoming posts to ever read these comments and respond.....who knows?]

This analysis or polls taken right as this brouhaha broke in PA presents a useful baseline, to wit that people are not spontaneously all that bothered by the reports of these garbled remarks of Obama's. But keep in mind: public opinion, as political scientists well understand, is not just a natural fact. It can be massaged and moved by "outrage" artifically ginned up in the media and by political ads like those HRC is running. Her campaign knows this and it is cynically trying to produce movement that would not otherwise occur. She will partially succeed in this, and TPM readers, as smart political analysts, should be prepared for that: polls will soon show increased "concern." Obama could well end up losing in the teens in PA because of this manufactured "outrage." HRC's campaign has done this because, before this broke, they were headed for a very narrow victory in PA that would not have allowed her to stay in the race until the convention.

Obvious thing for Obama to say in tomorrow's debate: "If I thought it was within bounds in a Democratic primary, I could easily create an ad showing the four times Senator Clinton starkly misrepresented her experience at Tuzla, and quote citizens expressing disgust at the lies about sniper fire and the slights on the performance of our military in providing full protection for the First Lady. I could produce citizens saying they cannot trust someone who lies or makes up fantasies like that. Should Senator Clinton get the nomination, make no doubt about it, ads like that will be ready to go from the Republicans and conservative groups -- and there are lots of TV clips to use!

But I am not going to take the contributions sent to me by many people of good will and use them this way in a Democratic Party primary. I will hit hard when I have to in the general election, but there have to be some bounds of decency and proportion, above all in an intra-family political discussion. Fellow Democratic candidates should not gin up fake controversies, or do the other party's work for it. People are tired of the "gotcha" politics of ginned up outrage and I am very sorry Senator Clinton has turned to it in this primary."

Theda Skocpol, Cambridge, MA

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Theda, from your lips to the Obama campaign's ears.

That would be outstanding, if he did that.

Damn. I might have to watch the debate now, just to see if he does.

Indeed. It would be worth watching just to see that line delivered.

Thanks so much for that. Are you in touch with the Obama campaign? You would make a good advisor.

Well said! I really enjoy your thoughtful TPM posts and hope you'll continue speaking out here. I also think your advice is a good way to turn the tables on Hillary and appeal to Democratic base voters who don't like the idea of one of their candidates helping the Republican win the general election.

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Theda - please get an avatar so I can easily identify your future posts. That was good.

I think there possibly already has been an effect. He's not losing much ground for sure, and that's good, but his upward momentum, which was a bit erratic, but would still tend up in a graph, seems to be dead in the water. The Clintons are too good by half at this game. But on the bright side, this comes a bit earlier than the NAFTA flap did before Ohio and Texas. They may have gotten ahead of themselves.

Hillary has pissed in my Cherios one time too many.

Leave, already.

But, but, but, this is a very important issue, vital, critical to the fate of the nation. He's an elitist. He went to a fancy school and talks like a big smarty pants, so he must be an elitist. How can those dumb hicks not see that? How many ads of actors pretending to be outraged voters does Hillary have to run to make them understand how critical this is?

And come on, it must be true because all the good, down to Earth, ordinary joes at Politico and ABC and Fox say so. Everyone knows all these reporters are really just blue collar working stiffs made good. They have their finger on the pulse of America's heartland. Plus, a bunch of Beltway political consultants said this was a big, big deal.

Guess Hillary will just have to keep hammering away at it til the dumb rednecks figure out that she knows what they should be thinking.

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Very well put, paDem and Theda.

Now ... paging Idiotic!

I'm curious to see what the polls would've looked like had Clinton not jumpstarted herself into retardo-pander mode.

Dan Abrams (whoda thunk it?)nailed the media obssession and faux outrage with this story on Verdict last night.
Shrillary is beyond the point of no return.
Now half the people in the Democratic Party have absolutely no use for her anymore.

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I once taught in a small town. Just north of the PA border. These people were poor! And very frustrated. Bitter would fit. And that was the 70's. As a teacher, I was the closest thing they had to a member of the "establishment" to whom they could complain. These people gave a lot of grief, I'm telling you! Yes, many hunted. But that was to supplement their meat! And yes they might have been upset had they known how I analyzed what was going on.... how I understood why they needed to complain to me, even though I was not responsible for their problems. But a politician needs to analyze, needs to tell the truth. For a long time the black community leaders have been saying the same kind of things, urging people to hope, understanding their bitterness. No reason to shoot the messenger though!

Hillary has just gotten unhinged here. She will pay for this dearly down the road.

I have this image of a Hillary "retreat" where folks are invited to bring their guns and shoot clay pigeons with the words of the 10 commandments stamped on them! Including the commandment to carry arms! (yes, snark!)

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Theda - one of the things I love about Obama and his campaign is that he invariably says the right thing at the right time. Arguably, what caused this stupid flap belies that, but as with Wright, I think he can recover and gain ground just like you said.

God I hope he does. That's all it takes, IMO.


This is all very useful - Kerry kept ignoring the attacks which helped to destroy his credibility.

Obama answers things calmly as a rule and makes sense. At the moment, Hillary is right on the verge of being hysterical - which is an unforgivable sexist stereotype on my part, but since I'm a woman too, I find her hysteria unforgivable. She is not helping women with this performance. Dammit.

I hope Obama can lay this whole thing down. I think he can if he will.

Echoing Jon Stewart last night, I WANT someone as President who is head and shoulders better, smarter and more informed than the rest of us. If the comment section on most blogs is any indication, we are in desperate need of someone who's an elite!

My god, elite used to mean "good".

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I think Al Franken nailed this theme in his Liars book a few years ago. That is, the media doesn't have a *liberal* bias, they have a *sensationalist* bias. Anything that sells papers or brings ratings is gold. And Colbert picked up on this theme at his wonderful White House correspondents dinner speech 2 years ago, telling the reporters there they were a bunch of glorified stenographers (THAT is why the silence to his talk, they were expecting Bush bashing, not reporter bashing).

Hillary knows she can play the press like a fiddle on issues like this, and distract from the damage the Bosnia story did to her Pennsylvania chances, because the press will just pass along whatever she says. But the voters are waking up that they don't like being manipulated like this.

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My god, elite used to mean "good".

Next thing ya know, they're going to be telling us that "intellectual" doesn't equate with Satan.


I know why Hillary supporters are excited about this stuff, and I know why McCain supporters are. I know why cablenews is. I know why some (many less that "predicted") Penn voters are interested in this.

But why is TPM reporting it blow by slow blow? I just don't get how it behooves a progressive site to coddle this kind of "San Francisco" "Elitist" "Limosine Liberal" stuff.

Here's a question: if, in the general election, McCain grabs an issue like this, will TPM report every mention of it, thus propagating it? Would TPM have mentioned it every time someone mentioned that "Al Gore invented the internet" even though that's exactly the kind of thing that cost Al Gore a lot of votes?

I know many will say Eric and Greg are biased to Hillary, but this site isn't run by them. So help me understand the thinking here. Is this truly "news"? And more specifically, is it "news" that helps a progressive candidate win in November, considering if Hillary gets nomination, it's the same crap McCain will say about her, note for note.

I am not sure that all of it is "news," but I confess that I am obliged to Mssrs Sargent and Kleefeld for bringing all of these items together into one clearinghouse. For instance, I am interested to know what sorts of ads each candidate is running in PA (or whatever state is voting at the time) and I would not be able to find these things out were it not for blogs like this.

THIS IS EXCELLENT NEWS!! FOR HILLARY!!!

Has there been any poll that assesses whether the "cling to religion/guns" remarks have had an effect on Obama v. McCain?

Poor Richmond:

Desperately Clinging to Hillary's Little Cling Clown Act!

Yes, we want someone who is head and shoulders better, smarter, more informed than the rest of us to be President. I don't think that is Obmama. He is someone who has not learned life's lessons yet and he wants us to sit around and watch while he and his crowd learn them at our expense. We ALL KNEW we had the answers when we were young. And Obama and his supporters will learn that they don't have all the answers just as we did.

They will also learn don't have any secret knowledge or magic power that is going to change the world. And if he wanted to learn this while our country is relatively stable while bringing some new ideas to the mix, I would be fine with that. But we are at war! We are in a recession! I for one do not want a presidency that will implode ala Jimmy Carter.

I have been talking to voters in PA and thank GOD!! most of them understand that. Obama can go find a good price on his arrugula and make sure his 12/13 year daughter has options if she "makes a mistake" and gets pregnant. He has no business running this country.

Oh please, Obama is clearly better, smarter and more informed. Of that there is really little doubt. The country is absolutely fed up with settling for lowered expectations...which is what brought us the "war!" and the "recession!" (gee, those exclamation points really helped made your point...not). Obama is a candidate (and will be a president) who can actually think on his feet, for a positive change. Indeed, he is head and shoulders above Senator Clinton in all regards. The last thing (aside from McCain) this country needs right now is someone as divisive as Senator Clinton. She will get little accomplished with her polarizing track record.

As much as I agree with him, I'm afraid this flap is more serious than the others. This is not some abstract "hate America" or "love NAFTA" concept that people can't quite take seriously. This hits the bedrock antipathy Americans have to anybody who thinks or acts like they're "better" than them. This is at the core of the rampant anti-intellectualism infecting the country. This is the "My kid just beat up your honor student" bumpersticker.

I really and truly hope that I do sound elitist by saying this, but my great fear is that the poor and uneducated in PA, IN, and KY will finally get to break out the term "uppity," which they've been waiting to do for a long time now.

In reality, I don't think this hurts too much, the people who aren't bright enough to parse his remarks and put them into context were probably concerned about voting for a secret-Muslim who doesn't say the pledge of allegiance in the first place.

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Maybe because the small towners are paying attention to the real problem. Obama in his speech yesterday to the AP:

John McCain is an American hero and a worthy opponent, but he's proven time and time again that he just doesn't understand this. It took him three tries in seven days just to figure out that the home foreclosure crisis was an actual problem. He's had a front row seat to the last eight years of disastrous policies that have widened the income gap and saddled our children with debt, and now he's promising four more years of the very same thing.

He's promising to make permanent the Bush tax breaks for the wealthiest few who didn't need them and didn't ask for them - tax breaks that are so irresponsible that John McCain himself once said they offended his conscience.

He's promising four more years of trade deals that don't have a single safeguard for American workers - that don't help American workers compete and win in a global economy.

He's promising four more years of an Administration that will push for the privatization of Social Security - a plan that would gamble away people's retirement on the stock market; a plan that was already rejected by Democrats and Republicans under George Bush.

He's promising four more years of policies that won't guarantee health insurance for working Americans; that won't bring down the rising cost of college tuition; that won't do a thing for the Americans who are living in those communities where the jobs have left and the factories have shut their doors.

I so wish the rest of the Democrats could stay on message like this.

I just cannot believe that the major media are still so laser-focused on BitterJuiceBowlGate. Good effin' grief, is this all that they're capable of? It sure seems like it.

It is just so thoroughly disgusting, and it makes me depressed for the future of this country, when they can't even sustain a dialogue on anything actually meaningful to the majority of people here. For some reason this matters intensely to them - I guess that's a reflection on how 'elitist' and 'out-of-touch' our media masters are. God help us all for the disaster these assholes are hoping to visit upon us.

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A SurveyUSA poll finds that a majority of Pennsylvanians were not offended by the remarks, with Democrats not offended by a 62%-33% margin.

Interesting. A recent poll said that 26% of Hillary's supporters wouldn't vote for Obama if he got the nomination. Now we learn that 33% of Pennsylvanians were offended by Obama's comment. Could it be they were already offended by his candidacy?

Just sayin'...

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(Everyone's ganging up on Obama because he said people were bitter because of the bad economy and were turning to guns and God. Memo to Obama: you should have said people are bitter because the damn Democratic Party, just like the Republican Party, is a friend to the rich and hostile to the poor and middle class.)

Sure I'm bitter...bitter about Clinton's millions, McCain's beer heiress trophy wife, Obama's boyish good looks and gift of gab.

Then there's the bitterness I have about the billions CEO's have accumulated and spend on crazy luxuries life Lear jets, and 400 million dollar yachts, and Bush's insane war which will cost 3-5 trillion and, yes, I'm bitter because I can just about afford my cat food diet and now I worry that Purina might be bought out by some hedge fund. But, please,don't mourn for me, organize.

Heck, I'm bitterness incarnate. But, I decided to move on. I started a group supporting Obama for president. It's called "Bitter People for Obama." Bitter as I am, I think he would be the best president ever.

So we'll now see a big apology from all the pundits like GOP-tool Ben Smith and ABC troll Jake Tapper, who practically wet their pants claiming "this is gonna be big!!"

Yeah, right!

But isn't Hillary's goal to make sure that if Barack does get the nomination that McCain wins? That way she gets another shot. I like reading about things like this at www.barackswhitelies.com. great blog.

You know I wasn't even going to respond to this at first, but thought better of it. When you read these emails, who do you think is polarizing? This is a case of the pot calling the kettle black. He is not better or smarter than everyone on the planet and he has only managed to divide his party, not unite it. And I'm happy to see my punctuation helped you understand my concept. When people seem so out of touch, it's nice to know they are actually participating in the human race.

You know I wasn't even going to respond to this at first, but thought better of it. When you read these emails, who do you think is polarizing? This is a case of the pot calling the kettle black. He is not better or smarter than everyone on the planet and he has only managed to divide his party, not unite it. And I'm happy to see my punctuation helped you understand my concept. When people seem so out of touch, it's nice to know they are actually participating in the human race.

And the reason for the delay in answering you is the comment wouldn't go through right away due to volume. Of course I'm sure you will pooh, pooh that as well, but thought I'd throw it in anyway.

How does running for the nomination divide the party? Isn't that his right to do? Or do you believe this nomination was Hillary Clinton's by right?

B.O. is off the hook unless he makes it to the GE. God Forbid.

Democralypse Now.

And the above comment thread is a perfect illustration of how McCain can win in November. A media-stoked Democratic Party implosion. There's your bitterness right there.

Un-freakin-believable. It's as if the past 7 years has taught Democrats nothing. Thanks Dems! Only your party is capable of fucking up what should be a sure win like this. No wonder I'm an independent.

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As a Pennsylvanian, my reaction to Obama's "bitter" quote is framed by his ads here. He's been on TV a lot, talking about ending tax breaks for companies that ship jobs overseas, and signing trade deals that are good for the American worker.

Sounds like hokum to me-- I've never heard Obama, or any politician, adequately explain how they intended to stem the tide of globalization.

I don't mind this minor bit of pandering. I do, however, find the juxtaposition of his condescencion to "bitter" Pennsylvania workers and his willingness to suck up to them a little galling.

No, I don't believe the nomination was Hillary's by right. I'm from Iowa and I caucused for Biden. I think someone who has an inkling of what the job is about is who should get it.

When I say he has divided the party, I'm referring to some remarks he has made such as "It is time for this generation to step aside" and his attitude that he is the only one who has any judgement. That everyone who has been working and trying to make things better are of no value. They all should be sent off to the retirement home and let him run things. He has, on the whole, made this a generational fight. And I have talked to a lot of older people who say if they can't beat him in the primary, they will vote for McCain so they can beat him in the GE. THEY DO NOT WANT HIM AS THEIR PRESIDENT! And neither do I.

TPM has a much smaller audience of political news wonks. Reporting it here, even if it was ad nauseum (which I don't think it is, and I'll get to why not, in a sec) doesn't propagate the meme like it would if this was CNN.

I'm interested in the development of this so-called story, because I can see that it has legs in the MSM. Just spot-check the number of hits google news has for it, that shows it has legs for a day or two more. What I really want to know is whether or not common sense (and people's trust in their own experience) can prevail over an army of talking heads and some woman stepping through the traditional swilling of beer for the benefit of cameras.

In this instance, yes they can. I find that very reassuring.

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