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Obama To Pick Up Endorsement Of Super-Del Bruce Braley Today
The Obama campaign confirms that he will get the endorsement of Rep. Bruce Braley of Iowa today.
It's a key super-del get for Obama, because Braley's from a rural swing district and is a former Edwards backer, which could help defuse the talk that Obama is struggling with white working class voters.
Sources also confirm to me that Obama will roll out a second super-del -- and perhaps more on top of that -- later today.
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Greg, may I be the first to thank you for the timely post about an Obama super-delegate. This is good news, especially given McCaskill's statements and Georgie-boy's reporting on Obama's rolling out "multiple" endorsements. Looks like the supers are listening to Howard Dean after all, huh? ;)
April 30, 2008 9:24 AM | Reply | Permalink
OOPS! I GOT STONED AND I MISSED IT!
Rumor has it that of the 3 people in USofKKKa who missed the Wright Mental Breakdown Rep Barry was among them. Two we're trapped in an abondened freezer and one was stoned.
VOTER YOUR CONSCIENCE
NOT YOUR WHITE GUILTY CONSCIENCE
April 30, 2008 10:08 AM | Reply | Permalink
which could help defuse the talk that Obama is struggling with white working class voters
The only talk about Obama's alleged white working class voter problems are by amnesic reporters repeating Hillary campaign talking points without remembering primaries and caucuses that took place just weeks ago which prove quite the contrary and such talk the argument ridiculous.
April 30, 2008 9:24 AM | Reply | Permalink
oops
and such talk ridiculous.
April 30, 2008 9:26 AM | Reply | Permalink
Exactly!
April 30, 2008 9:35 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yep.
And there are people working overtime to make their assumptions into reality.
People in the media, mainly.
April 30, 2008 9:39 AM | Reply | Permalink
Pollster.com is a good anti-dote for those of you with an aversion to reality.
I seem to remember your like maintaining that Bittergate had not impacted Pennsylvania because it had no impact. Utten nonsense -- with more than triple her advertising Obama was failing to gain traction.
Look, if Obama can't figure out who Rev. Wright is in two decades how can he possible be an effective President?
His puported objections to the Iraq War were really very similar to McCain's position -- Obama said it is a bad idea to go to war now because you haven't done x, y and z and McCain said now that you have gone to war you should do x,y and z.
April 30, 2008 10:30 AM | Reply | Permalink
Obama reduced a thirty point lead to a nine point one in a state whose demographics strongly favored Hillary. 'nuff said.
April 30, 2008 11:06 AM | Reply | Permalink
And another one later this afternoon.
1 and 2 a day since PA. So much for that turning tide.
April 30, 2008 9:27 AM | Reply | Permalink
The tied is turning, it is just turning against Hillary.
April 30, 2008 9:28 AM | Reply | Permalink
Right. BHO is +3 since PA on superdelegates (7 vs. 4), and that is NOT counting the 2 today. Politico has the Superdel gap only 18 apart.
April 30, 2008 10:58 AM | Reply | Permalink
Her SD lead is now, what, 20?
April 30, 2008 9:29 AM | Reply | Permalink
19, actually.
April 30, 2008 9:38 AM | Reply | Permalink
Beautiful.
April 30, 2008 9:42 AM | Reply | Permalink
where are you getting the number 19. Real Clear Politics has it at 20 now after this mornings.
April 30, 2008 9:59 AM | Reply | Permalink
19 after this afternoon?
April 30, 2008 10:08 AM | Reply | Permalink
So what is the magic number that Obama needs? Based off the estimates of the remaining states, is it 80 more supers, 70 more supers, 60 more supers, 50 more supers? Surprised no one is tracking this countdown statistic.
April 30, 2008 9:29 AM | Reply | Permalink
With the Slate delegate counter, I get Obama to ~1700 pledged delegates when all is said and done. With, what, 240 SDs now, that puts him at 1940. So, he'll need only 84 more SDs to get to 2025.
April 30, 2008 9:33 AM | Reply | Permalink
Based off my estimates, the magic number is in the 90s.
April 30, 2008 9:34 AM | Reply | Permalink
roughly 2025(total)
- 1490 (current pledged)
- 200 (future pledged)
- 35 (future add-ons)
- 240 (current declared supers)
- 5 (pelosi)
=55
April 30, 2008 9:37 AM | Reply | Permalink
By the DemConWatch numbers, I figure 24 more Superdelegates for Obama by May 20 will enable him to hit 2024 on that date, adding what he has now, a reasonable guesstimate at the primaries between now and then, and likely add-ons gained in that time.
April 30, 2008 9:55 AM | Reply | Permalink
You have his magic SD number at 24? That seems awfully low. Can you do a breakdown?
April 30, 2008 10:09 AM | Reply | Permalink
There's another angle to this:
How many Supers does Hillary need to win?
According to http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/02/29/delegate.counter/index.html
if you assume 50/50 splits in remaining contests (which actually favors Hillary), she'll still need 232 Supers to endorse.
That means once Obama gets 71 Supers, it becomes impossible for Hillary to win.
Of course, if Hillary starts winning states like NC, then this all goes out the window.
But if Hillary loses NC, then she'll actually need more Supers to overcome the loss. And frankly, the odds of Supers going to Hillary 3 to 1 are very, very long.
April 30, 2008 10:48 AM | Reply | Permalink
Well, if 90 or 100 supers came out and backed Obama, then it might become clear after May 6 that she cannot win. Which would be awesome. Obama could still graciously campaign in the remaining primaries, stressing the importance of their votes. She would probably still win KY/WV and maybe another. But the attacking from the Clinton camp would end. That's what's important for now. We really need to stop fighting the two-front war. We need to stop fighting a war, period. It's an election. We could run it like one, if certain members of our party would let us.
April 30, 2008 10:58 AM | Reply | Permalink
Hope the multiple endorsement story pans out. Two is nice, nonetheless.
April 30, 2008 9:29 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yes Greg, I'm sure the jobless factory worker in Indiana is thinking to himself "Bruce Braley endorsed Barack Obama, maybe this guy isn't so bad after all."
April 30, 2008 9:32 AM | Reply | Permalink
You're right, that factory worker probably isn't paying attention to this endorsement, or any other superdels outside of his area, for that matter. But this does impact the discourse around Obama as someone who can't connect with non-metropolitan whites... like all the working class whites who voted for him in Iowa, Wisconsin, Virginia, etc. It's more a message to other SDs.
April 30, 2008 9:42 AM | Reply | Permalink
Heym=, we all said that Clinton needed the supers to break at a 2:1 rate. Too bad for her they are breaking the other way!
April 30, 2008 9:41 AM | Reply | Permalink
2:1 is an absolute best-case minimum for Hillary -- if she holds NC to a tie, wins Indiana handily and sweeps through the rest of the primaries, THEN she needs just under 70% of the uncommitted supers (not counting add-ons). If you start applying more reasonable primary results -- Obama wins NC by 10-12, Indiana basically splits, Obama wins Oregon marginally, then that number goes up closer to 4:1.
April 30, 2008 9:57 AM | Reply | Permalink
Good news for Obama from an excellent Representative who I was pleased to vote for in '06. (I am relatively new to the Cheese state) Actually, this is a noteworthy day for Braley on a second count. He eviscerated Doan during her testimony during the GAO hearings in the house. He showed how excellent questions can be asked! Go Obama and Braley.
April 30, 2008 9:44 AM | Reply | Permalink
I hope he does announce "several" today because I just heard on MSNBC that Hillary is going to pick up a Superdelegate today....Bill George, the president of the Pennsylvania AFL-CIO. I guess he's comfortable with Bill and Mark Penn taking money from the Colombians to support a trade deal that Hillary is "supposed" to be against.
April 30, 2008 9:58 AM | Reply | Permalink
All these superdelegate endorsements signal the beginning of the end for Obama!
LOL...
April 30, 2008 10:02 AM | Reply | Permalink
Clinton got a super:
http://thepage.time.com/2008/04/30/clinton-adds-pennsylvania-super/
Dammit.
Well, at least the numbers are dwindling. If they continue at the same pace it is essentially over.
April 30, 2008 10:16 AM | Reply | Permalink
It seems to me that your throw away line at the end is more important than you make out. Clinton's continued claim to viability rests on the idea that the supers could still throw the nomination to her. A super declaring for her is better for her than a super declaring for Obama, but it is still bad news for her. She needs undeclared supers and lots of them. The fewer undeclared remaining, the more thin her fig leaf of viability becomes. That is why Bayh was asking supers not to come off the bench.
April 30, 2008 10:39 AM | Reply | Permalink
Unless her campaign hopes the Tonya Harding strategy so destroys Obama that even Obama's declared superdelegates will jump boat.
April 30, 2008 11:12 AM | Reply | Permalink
Your comments remind me that the early coverage of the Cananian / NAFTA story indicated that the wink/wink came from the Clinton camp and somehow flipped to Obama's camp. Did Bill / Mark Penn have the influence to make that happen?
April 30, 2008 10:23 AM | Reply | Permalink
Can anyone remember when the last day was that Clinton picked up more supers than Obama? She needs more of them than he does and she is getting fewer than he is.
Remind me again why it is that we are supposed to be worried that she is going to beat him?
April 30, 2008 10:36 AM | Reply | Permalink
Exactly. By my calculations, she needs to be gaining Supers at a Ratio of three to Obama's one.
Every time a delegate decides and moves us closer to a conclusion, it's a good thing!
(With the caveat that Supers can change their mind... but if they were going to change their mind, why endorse in the first place? Why not just wait?)
April 30, 2008 10:52 AM | Reply | Permalink
Most of Edwards former supers who've (re-)endorsed have gone to Obama, haven't they? I mean, I know Mike Easley (tool) is a notable exception, but he's the only one I can think of right now.
Some key Edwards backers that moved to the Obama camp: WI Rep. David Obey, Appropriations Committee Chair. NC Reps. Mel Watt and David Price, both extremely popular in their districts. Watt is well-known in NC for having run Harvey Gantt's heartbreaking campaign against Jesse Helms. He's also a former chair of the Congressional Black Caucus (109th). Price is a leader on ethics and campaign reform (he wrote the "stand by your ad" provision into national law). He's also, ironically enough, one of the folks responsible for giving us the current superdelegate system, because he served as the staff director on the Hunt Commission. But, you know, I'm sure it made sense at the time. :-) These three guys - Obey, Watt, Price - are all progressive voters, all people that I would want on my team if I were collecting supers. There is something to be said for quality of endorsements as well as quantity.
But just in terms of sheer numbers, I feel like there's something noteworthy in the fact that Edwards's former backers have moved overwhelmingly in support of Obama.
April 30, 2008 10:51 AM | Reply | Permalink
Since Super Tuesday, otherwise he has been catching up since.
And to add to the discussion, I believe no previous democrate running for office managed to win the blue collar vote. This issue was manufactured by Clinton, and the media as usual bought the argument because it is a way to manipulate the people...
This is sad, but reality. However the good news I think is that the SD are not buying it...
They will endorse more after he wins NC. And if he does win Indiana then that will be over. The Sds are just waiting to endorse him, they just need him to win Indiana.
April 30, 2008 10:55 AM | Reply | Permalink
I love it, because it completely ignores the fact that the Democratic candidate DOES need the African-American vote to win...
something Hillary has had problems getting.
She needs to win a large % of the African-American vote in NC to prove she can win in November. That's a fact.
Supers know this as well.
April 30, 2008 11:00 AM | Reply | Permalink
Here's number two for Obama today - Barron Hill (IN-9)
From the Bloomington Herald-Times (subscription)
April 30, 2008 10:59 AM | Reply | Permalink
The Obama tide isn't turning, it is still rising...
Beware the ides of May, though, as the MSM and MCFlounder and Ms. Clinton realize their Wright torpedoe only made a dent, they will find new trash to sort, and they are all working together on the project.
Curious, how Clinton and Mccain both are pandering to the oil industry, together again, as if they are working in unison.
Could it be possible that Hillary and McCain have made some sort of deal? Like "Lets take this Obama upstart out, then we'll have a nice beltway family campaign."
It may be too late for that, Obama might well prove to be the stealth candidate no one saw coming. They were all so determined to take Edwards out of the spotlight, they disregarded Obama.
Or am I just paranoid?
April 30, 2008 11:53 AM | Reply | Permalink
PS. if anyone from Braley's staff reads this, PLEASE, tell him "THANK YOU" from all of us fellow former Edwards supporters who have joined the Obama movement.
Hope lives!
April 30, 2008 11:55 AM | Reply | Permalink
Not to nit-pick...but I grew up in Iowa's First District and it's far from "rural". Davenport and Dubuque make up the bulk of the district's population, and both cities are heavily working-class, with their economies dependent upon meatpacking, concrete, farm implements, etc.
April 30, 2008 12:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
The most important thing about this individual endorsement has been missed:
Braley is potentially vulnerable in November. He's a first-termer and the Republicans think they can pick up his seat this year. Braley obviously agrees with the opinion (popular on this site) that an Obama nomination increases the likelihood of down-ticket success.
He could have waited for this decision to be made for him--like some supers are trying to do--to avoid alienating some Dems in his district. But instead he endorsed Obama. I think that is very telling.
April 30, 2008 4:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
This has been the case with many, many of the folks endorsing Obama. Look at the Kentucky Reps, Chandler and Yarmuth. I mean, one would think that they would endorse Clinton, given her projected win in the state as a whole. But it's clear that in their individual districts (the two major Democratic strongholds in the state), they can see the advantages of an Obama fronted ticket.
Similarly, all of the folks who need to be elected in NC have endorsed Obama. I don't think Clinton has a single endorser who is up for election this cycle.
May 1, 2008 12:02 AM | Reply | Permalink