Obama Campaign: Exit Polls Show "Significant Improvements" Over Our Performance In Ohio
Obama spokesperson Bill Burton argues, via instant messaging, that the exit polls show already that in Pennsylvania Obama is doing better among key groups than he did in Ohio, a state with similar demographic advantages for Hillary:
Significant improvements over Ohio, especially among white men and seniors overall.With voters over 60 in OH, Clinton won 69%, Obama got 28%. In PA, Obama earned 41% of the vote among voters over 60, and Clinton won 59%. The gap among seniors was cut by more than half, from 41 to 19.
Among white men, in Ohio, Obama got 39%, in PA, 46%. Clinton was at 58% in OH and dropped to 53% in PA. The gap narrowed from 19% to 7%.
It's worth keeping in mind that for various reasons Pennsylvania is actually more demographically advantageous to Hillary than Ohio was -- a fact that could either redound to her benefit or to her disadvantage, depending on what happens tonight.
Both the first and last paragraphs are comparing the breakdown among white men in PA and OH...but the numbers are different.
What gives?
April 22, 2008 8:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
One graf is meant to reflect the vote of white women... I don't know which is which... perhaps first para is white women and last is white men or the reverse.
April 22, 2008 8:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Good news for our candidate, Obama!
April 22, 2008 8:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oh, and by the way...
Yes. We apparently can.
April 22, 2008 8:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
I switched over to CNN just now and there coverage is just flat out boring!
April 22, 2008 8:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
If Obama really did get 45% of the White Vote, he may have won this thing.
Pre-election polls were suggesting AA's would be 15% of the vote. If we ignore Asian and Latino voters, and give Obama 45% of the remaining 85% 'White' vote, he would total 52% overall.
As for actual numbers, with about 3,000 votes in so far Hillary has 65% - but those are obviously VERY early numbers/
April 22, 2008 8:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
If Obama is within 6 points at then end of the night I'll show my bum in the supermarket
April 22, 2008 8:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Please don't.
April 22, 2008 8:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
An "O-BUM-a-thon"?
April 22, 2008 8:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is math thread. I don't belong here.
:)
April 22, 2008 8:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
here, here!!
April 22, 2008 8:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
kudos for the nice usage of "redound", Greg.
April 22, 2008 8:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
MSNBC finally called it for Clinton.
April 22, 2008 8:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
MSNBC called it for HIllary
April 22, 2008 8:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
I switched from MSNBC to Fox News. Fox lays it to you straight and that's what i want to hear. MSNBC was first saying it was too close to call, then its too early to call. Fox News immediately projected Hillary Clinton is the winner. Which we all knew and now we're just watching the number trickle in to see what the actual count is.
April 22, 2008 8:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, Obama is not the preferred candidate on Fox News.
Tweety went off again on Clinton.
They should fire him.
April 22, 2008 8:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
That's the best news I've heard all night.
April 22, 2008 9:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
Except he's right. Keep him!
April 22, 2008 9:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
I could have called for Hillary last week. It's the spread that is the story.
April 22, 2008 8:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, an Obama win would have been nice but really was a long shot. Now the big question is the margin. So far as per the Obama memo, exit polls look promising but-- they are exit polls.
April 22, 2008 8:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
What a bunch of bull Obama cannot win crucial democratic states. All he can win are red states that dems are going to lose anyway. If democrats ran elections winner take all the same as the republicans and the electoral college, Clinton would have won this a long time ago. I think the super delegates want to win in November and I'm sorry but Obama cannot win a general election if he is the nominee I just hope he doesn't drag the whole party down with him.
April 22, 2008 9:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
You're suggesting these blue states will opt for McCain over Obama in what is sure to be a big Democratic year? If so, I respectfully disagree.
April 22, 2008 9:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
A) There's no correlation between winning states in the primary and winning states in the general.
B) If democrats ran winner take all races, then Obama would have campaigned differently. But they don't. Obama looked at the rules, and he campaigned accordingly, and he won more delegates, which is what the rules require. Within a few weeks, he'll have enough delegates to end this damned thing.
C) Obama runs better against McCain than Clinton does. Once he actually can start campaigning against McCain, he will blow the old fart out of the water.
D) I don't know why I bother responding to people like you who just spout nonsense and are going to completely ignore the facts.
April 22, 2008 9:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
Fairy tales may come true but not yours.
April 22, 2008 10:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm betting 53-47 at this point. Maybe she'll get up to 54. Whatever. It's not near enough to impress the supers or the donors.
April 22, 2008 9:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ya, the significant improvement is that messiah Obama is a LOSER!
CLINTON WINS!!! PENNSYLVANIA GOES FOR CLINTON!!
HEY messiah OBAMA...BYE...BYE
April 22, 2008 9:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
Barhack H Obama spent about 100.00 per vote in Pennsylvania. Dang. What a waste Barhack H Obama, you could have spent that money on the needy of Pennsylvania and gotten alot more return. What a waste.
April 22, 2008 9:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
Um, the figures I've seen is that he spent $11M, and he is going to end up with about a million votes. Maybe my math is wrong, but I believe that works out to $11 per vote.
April 22, 2008 10:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wow. The wormwood is thick tonight.
Imagine if the trolls spent as much time actually thinking about the candidates, instead of hurling the same crappy talking points as if they were divine logic!
Clinton winngin Pa is a 'no shit' outcome, Obama "winning" is the upset story of the primary season; bit as a few enlightened folks already mentioned, it's the margins (i.e., the resultant number if dels acquired} that matters.
Unless Clinton scores a percentage well into the double-digits, it's yet another entry to the coda of the eventual nomination of Obama,
Further more, it's no surprise the stor of Clinton supporters defecting to McCain. Both he and she are in a race to appeal to the center.
Take a moment and consider how much the majority, less than the top five income households (regardless of party affiliation, or ignorance of logic for that matter) in America has benefited from this strategy.
It's a sobering thought if you allow yourself to engage it.
April 22, 2008 10:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama was stomped tonight! I'm laughing at Obama's superior intellect.
April 23, 2008 1:43 AM | Reply | Permalink
Technically, the margin of victory (according to the NYT numbers this morning) is 9.4 % (C 54.7% vs. O's 45.3%). That should be rounded to 9%, which is technically a single diget victory. It is amazing what you can do with numbers. ;-)
April 23, 2008 7:12 AM | Reply | Permalink
...but spelling is another matter...it is 'digit'
April 23, 2008 7:17 AM | Reply | Permalink
PA Board of Elections site says 54.3/45.7 with over 50 Philly area precincts still not counted. It will probably close to 54/46 when all is said and done.
http://www.electionreturns.state.pa.us/ElectionsInformation.aspx?FunctionID=12&ElectionID=27
April 23, 2008 9:01 AM | Reply | Permalink
Single-digit! Ten delegates! Whatta win!
April 23, 2008 9:31 AM | Reply | Permalink
AP says 9.4% and the PA Secretary of State says 8.5%.
April 23, 2008 10:19 AM | Reply | Permalink