Just don't go bowling again, please!

I'm glad to hear that they're aware a shift in political outreach is necessary. It's clear to me that their economic message towards potential voters have been muddled. I think the television ads need a reworking with more personal stories--voter stories, especially.

Greg,

I'm not inclined to harass you for your write-ups, but I read the Times piece early this morning and got no sense that there was an "intense debate erupting" in Obama's campaign about this issue. In fact, I just searched the article again, and the words "intense" and "debate" are never used in the context of campaign strategy. (I believe the piece says they are putting an intense effort into Indiana, and they have chosen not to debate Clinton.)

Your write-up suggests that there is some internal division in Obama's campaign (as has frequently been reported about Clinton), but that just isn't true. Unless you have other information you want to report, the Times piece does not support the notion that Camp Obama is a volcano waiting to explode (as your eruption metaphor suggests.)

I'm sure your intentions are honorable, but I think your language is creating a controversy where none exists.

Yup. He needs to fight the perception of him as an "elitist" and lay out specific economic policies, beyond the calls for "change". By showing an understanding of the tough economic times they are facing, Obama can make inroads with these voters. He may face a certain percentage (like our friend upthread) who just can't vote for the black guy, but I'm hopeful that percentage won't be signigicant enough to make the difference.

Why aren't the various strengths and weaknesses of the two candidates in various demographics treated the same way by the media? It seems to me that Obama's "weakness" with blue collar voters can largely be explained by Hillary's overwhelming support among low income older white women. Factor that part out of the blue collar demographic and I'll bet the deficit closes quickly. So, older white women and black voters are both pretty core demographics for the Democratic Party, and each candidate has a natural strength with one of the constituencies. However, Hillary's strength is treated by the media as an Obama weakness. Yet, the same concern does not seem to be expressed regarding Hillary and the demographics in which Obama is strong. If it were expressed, there would be a media conniption about "injcting race".

Perhaps the explanation is that Hillary has gone so negative that there is a fear that her strength will in fact turn into an Obama weakness in November. However, I believe that those older female voters will not vote for another 4 years of Bush policies any more than black voters would if Hillary were the nominee. I certainly don't see them wanting another couple of anti-choice judges. Moreover, I fully expect Hillary to show some class and campaign for Obama with these groups once the nomination is secured. The delicate part is not forcing her out before she's accepted fate because that will make her and her supporters more bitter. This has been a long, tough primary. It's wearing on us all. Democrats need to unite sooner rather than later. If Obama wins NC by a wide margin and improves in IN compared to OH and PA, I think it will be time to put the country and the party first. I just hope Hillary sees that.

Its too bad that Obama is "bored" with the primary.

Tell this to the voters in Indiana -- Sen. Obama is "bored" with the primary, and does not want to even bother with a debate focusing on issues important to the State.

Obama advisers realize Obama needs to win blue collar voters. Great! Next thing they'll realize that he needs to get 270 electoral votes in November.

And at that moment they'll understand just how "effed" they are. B/c his chance of getting to 270 is about the same as Michael Dukakis's was. In fact, I bet if we ran Dukakis this term, he'd get more electoral votes than Obama.

I find this trend, if it actually exists in the campaign's thinking, somewhat disturbing. Obama should not let her set his agenda. The "elitism" leitmotif so beloved by Hillary and the media is a canard. The new Newsweek poll in fact says that more working-class voters feel that Hillary "speaks down" to them than feel Obama does. The "elitism" label is a cover for another objection that a working-class core of Hillary support has to Obama. It's not his arugula-eating, white-wine-sipping, Niebuhr-quoting lifestyle. It's his being an African American man.

These are people who (as he implied in SF) are afraid of or despise "the other." It's not just blacks. It's foreigners, Muslims, intellectuals, gays. And Hillary has catered to all those prejudices in one way or another. (It has been widely noted that, despite cultivating gay groups for their massive donations, she never utters the word "gay" in public.) Those guys in the bar whom she is throwing back the Crown Royal with have a lot more serious problems with Obama (and his supporters) than their poor bowling.

Yeah, no kidding? Nothing gets by that crafty David Axelrod.

Axelrove is good, I give him that. And I bet he's working overtime on damage control to spin Capt Crazy comments at the Nat'l Press Club.

Poll Shows Erosion Of Trust In Clinton
PHILADELPHIA, April 16, 2008(Washingtonpost.com) This story was written by Anne E. Kornblut and Jon Cohen.
Lost in the Hillary Rodham Clinton campaign's aggressive attacks on Barack Obama in recent days is a deep and enduring problem that threatens to undercut any inroads Clinton has made in her struggle to overtake him in the Democratic presidential race: She has lost trust among voters, a majority of whom now view her as dishonest.

Her advisers' efforts to deal with the problem -- by having her acknowledge her mistakes and crack self-deprecating jokes -- do not seem to have succeeded. Privately, the aides admit that the recent controversy over her claim to have ducked sniper fire on a trip to Bosnia probably made things worse.

Clinton is viewed as "honest and trustworthy" by just 39 percent of Americans, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll, compared with 52 percent in May 2006. Nearly six in 10 said in the new poll that she is not honest and trustworthy. And now, compared with Obama, Clinton has a deep trust deficit among Democrats, trailing him by 23 points as the more honest, an area on which she once led both Obama and John Edwards.

Here's the internals on the Indiana poll where Clinton is 9% ahead.

Interestingly, it's identical to a month ago.

No Clear Trend in Indiana -- Clinton Ends April Just As She Started: In a Democratic Primary in Indiana today, 04/28/08, 8 days until votes are counted, Hillary Clinton finishes ahead of Barack Obama, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for WHAS-TV in Louisville and WCPO-TV in Cincinnati. The results are identical to a SurveyUSA TV poll released 4 weeks ago, on 04/01/08. Clinton led then 52% to 43%, leads now 52% to 43%. Other polls show the contest closer; some polls show Obama ahead. SurveyUSA tracking graphs show movement toward Clinton in the middle of April but offsetting movement to Obama at the end of April. This back-and-forth can be seen clearly on the interactive tracking graphs for males, for Democrats, for pro-choice voters, and for residents of greater Indianapolis. Clinton's advantage is steady among women, steady among voters age 50+, and steady in Southern Indiana, which borders Kentucky. Obama is gaining ground among voters under 50, where he leads for the first time; among liberals, where he leads for the first time; in Northern Indiana, where he is tied for the first time; and in Central Indiana, where he has cut Clinton's lead in half. Clinton, by contrast, is making steady inroads among Independent voters.

Come on.

No one has done more for Blue Collar workers than Barack Obama.

To fix a problem, you have to correctly identify it. Obama can't fix his message to lower income white voters, because it's not his message to them that's turning them off. It's his message to his own base they find insulting. Until Obama communicates with his base in a way that doesn't offend lower income white voters, his performance with them won't improve. As a Clinton supporter, I hope he does make a major speech on the issue. The more our base sees and hears of him, the less they like him.