"the lead doesn't indicate she's going to win by a large enough margin to make a serious impact on Obama's overall delegate lead."

If the results bear this out, Obama has been successful.

Great News. This means with the late independents swinging her way just like Ohio, it will be at least a 15%-20% victory. Obama seems to be crumbling after his lackluster debate. I think people are getting really sick of Obama and Obama supporters doing continuace whining,
Whiny Obama and the whiny bunch, good name for a new band.

44% tastes great.
44% less filling.

"a significant impact in delegate lead" - let's see how PA and NC together impact that delegate lead, currently at around PLUS 170 for Sen. Obama.

Ha ha ha, excellent. Single digits, one way or the other.

See all you DLC chumps in NC for your Great North State A$$ Whooping. They drink real whisky down there, not that Canuck blend s#!t. Esse Quam Videri, y'all.

Anything under 10% is a win for Obama.

I'm still using the 10 point difference as the measuring stick. I don't think it's going to be nearly as close as many of the polls are indicating. I think a realistic best-case-scenario for Obama is losing by 7-points, and given the recent polls lowering expectations for Clinton, I think she would have certain grounds to claim that as a moderate win for her. If it's 10+, it's a big win for her and probably means she'll win Indiana and that the race will continue until the last primary in the very least and possibly the convention.

"the lead doesn't indicate she's going to win by a large enough margin to make a serious impact on Obama's overall delegate lead."

I hope the Mason-Dixon people are better at polling than they are at analyzing their results. A five-point win would probably not net her more than 2 or 3 delegates. And I don't believe this takes into account the big advantage in delegate allocation that Obama already gets in Philly and burbs. To make "a serious impact on Obama's overall delegate lead" would require a wholesale slaughter in the districts he's about to walk away with.

10 point+ margin of victory for hrc, take it to the bank.

the obama-loving media continues to want to cite any and every poll under the sun and spin those poll results as being dispositively positive for obama, i.e., "if he's behind, well he's behind by what he was 2 months ago"...or "if he's ahead, well, he's maintaining his general support despite recent controversies of [you fill in the blanks] rev. wright...ayers and the weathermen...bitter voters clinging to guns, religion and bigotry."

what the media never does is give equal favorable coverage to clinton's narrowing of poll gaps, or more importantly, cite the huge percentages of undecideds in these polls, the same undecideds that broke decidely for clinton in ohio and texas and new hampshire and california.

so juice yourself up, tpm and obama-loving media everywhere, on your poll coverage. i'm focused on 1 poll and 1 poll only -- the poll from pennsylvania voters on tuesday night.

undecideds will again break for clinton and propel her to the 10+ point margin of victory.

Thank God that My Girl Hil is still ahead after 3 weeks of being outspent 3 to 1 by the Holy One, the Savior.

10 point win.....after being out spent 4 to 1....why can't he finish her off. Why won't she just quit. Why won't she just leave him alone. Why, why, why.

Predicting a 10-point win for Clinton in PA is not too difficult. I don't think she'll go over that, though.

As for those asking about Obama's outspending her, well, it's pretty easy to explain why.

(1) He had NO endorsements coming into the state, while the state Democratic Party chairman, the governor, the mayors of the two largest cities, and one of the most powerful reps in Congress (Murtha) all endorsed Clinton. PA is also senior-heavy and Catholic-heavy, both Clinton demographics. If he'd spent equally to her, he'd lose by 20-25. It's worth the millions to try and limit the loss to 5-10 points.

(2) He is spending more because he has more to spend - due to better fundraising and more intelligent spending for the last 4 months. That's not an indictment of his campaign by any means.

(3) The spending here will help for the general election, should he become the nominee. He'll already be well known in a swing state.

It's impossible for Obama to waste money in PA. Even a 15-point win for Clinton won't dent the delegate lead much, thanks to proportional representation. She'll be fortunate to net 10-15 delegates out of the state.

She's kicking ass in other polls by double digits. This thing is not over regardless of what MSNBC and TPM have to say. Remember these polls have always been wrong on clinton's numbers. She has done better than polls indicate.

Hillary 08

At the risk of becoming tedious:

The polls are still all over the place. One says HRC by 12 points, another by 5 points, another says they're tied. Most of the polls are going to be wrong. Maybe all of them. So what do they mean?

You know the answer.

Bupkes.

The election's on Tuesday. Sometime Tuesday night we'll get the first numbers that mean anything out of Pennsylvania. Until then, it's all just bupkes.

Peace,
Paul

I predict that it will be Clinton by 15 pts. I've stayed with that despite the narrowing poll numbers, and the varying poll numbers.

I hope I'm wrong.

Not paying street money was an absolute blunder.

Hillary absolutely needs a 65/35 split to make any headway in the delegate apportionment. Most of the polls are seeing a 55/45 win for her, but if it's only a 10-12 point win she isn't going to pick up enough delegates to offset Obama's gains in NC.

Whether she wins by 1% or 20%, you can guarantee that the MSM will play up her victory as "the greatest comeback in political history" for the next 2 weeks until Barack puts her out of business by winning Indiana and North Carolina.

The next 2 weeks will be very unpleasant to say the least.

The party leaders will deliver Obama the superdelegates to prevent Hillary from taking it to the convention. They cannot afford to lose any House and Senate seats in November, not to mention state level offices. If she steals the election through back room deals the party is ripped apart, too many people will stay home in November, and the Republicans will win the White House and regain the majority in Congress.

They have a bunch of polls listed on the main page. They range from 5pts to 14. The biggest difference among the polls seems to be forcing undecideds to pick a candidate and they lean pretty heavily towards Clinton. I am still crossing my fingers for massive Obama turn out in Philly but not holding my breath. It looks like a 10-15pt win for HRC. Not enough to change the race but enough to keep her in it.
Also, need to keep an eye on the popular vote. While it is a delegate race, the supers are the wildcard and could give it to the popular vote winner.

I have a gut feeling that Pennsylvania will turn out to be a closer contest that most are predicting.

I sense a toss up here and I give Obama a 1 in 5 chance of actually winning it.