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In Final Zogby Tracking Poll, Hillary Leads By 10 In Pennsylvania

Zogby's final tracking poll numbers in Pennsylvania find Hillary expanding her lead to beyond the margin of error:

Hillary 51% (yesterday 48%)

Obama 41% (yesterday 42%)

The poll finds Hillary edging over 50% and into a double-digit lead. She's up five points from two days ago and six from five days ago. The latest expansion of three points is larger than other recent gains, suggesting the possibility (if Zogby is right) that the late-breakers are turning her way.

Still, six percent remain undecided. So Obama could still make the outcome much closer than the decisive victory she needs, something that would significantly ratchet up pressure on her to drop out of the race.


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10 %, not surprising and the number I've been expecting since Ohio as the best possible outcome for Obama.

Zogby - the Kiss of Death pollster!

Too funny!

Getting a lead with a Zogby Poll is like making the cover of Sports Illustrated before the big game.

Indeedy. Polling poorly with Zogby is actually a pre-election blessing.

Yes, and Hillary wins this big game.

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If the poll is a true reflection of opinion in Pennsylvania, there are some very very gullable people there, fooled by Hillary's pandering and chameleon campaign. There is not one honest word or authentic action from her.

We get what we deserve (and ask for).

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Thanks for nothing, ABC.
~

1. As of today, there is NO second amendment right to individual gun ownership, and as Ivy educated lawyers Clinton and Obama should know that, but both probably are suckered in by NRA rhetoric that creates the illusion that such as right really exists.

2. Turning back the Columbia trade deal is a shameful political sell-out.

3. Clinton's Iran rhetoric sounds crazy. And unlike you morons, I actually plan a trip to Iran soon, and have been to Syria recently for vacation.

4. Obama is a former law prof who never wrote a single scholarly article, a requisite for any non-AA aspiring academic. If he wasa law prof who couldn't produce any scholarship, it makes me wonder how good he'll be as President.

5. The problem with AA: setting the bar so low that the beneficiaries have no opportunity or incentive to show they can truly compete and excel.

6. Sad to say, 99% of of African-american scholarship is shoddy.

7. 80% of scholarship produced by women is shoddy too.

8. I am brilliant beyond description.

you went to Iran and Syria.... TERRORIST AHHHHHHHHHHHHH IAM CALLING HOME LAND SECURITY RIGHT NOW!!!!

Had you gotten a better education, you'd know the country is spelled "Colombia." So much for your Aryan intellect, Mark Nuckols. Perhaps your brain's just full of hufu.

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I was going to point out the same thing; but I've been suckered before into wasting time replying to this racist idiot.

That shows she was leading by five points yesterday. You should take that into account, and I think Sunday's poll was totally off since they only polled in the morning and early afternoon, and didn't do any evening polling.

Zogby has been wrong before and will this time again.

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1. They weren't "suckered in" to anything. It's called pandering. They don't really believe it.

2. The free trade rhetoric is also pandering. What do you expect from Democratic candidates, man? A lecture on comparative advantage?

3. [sarcastic applause] Good for you, you walked around Damascus and bought a rug. Maybe you even learned how to say "marhaban". That makes you a middle east expert.

4. When Obama was a law professor he was also a friggin state senator. How many scholarly articles has Madeline Albright produced? And yet, she's a star professor at Georgetown. She must really suck.

5. AA talk is racist. Obama is intelligent and was the editor of the law review at Harvard. The AA talk makes it seem like you think he's a backwater hick...it makes you sound like a stupid racist. Maybe you are though. Still, I'll give you a heads up just in case.

6. Not true

7. Now you're just being an a**hole

8. You're an idiot

Seems right to me, and goof news for Obama. if this happens. 55-45 Clinton leave PA broke, bleeding and kind of like napoleon in Moscow.

Has everyone forgotten that Zogby confidently predicted a Kerry win, a BIG win?

shrivti1, don't feed the troll. And vacationing in Iran and Syria doesn't make you informed. I've been to Cuba and I didn't buy the sociolist clap trap there. Milorad should live up to his last name and bugger off. Go sell your crazy on some other board.

Make that "socialist". Darn keyboard!

One constant in this silly season has been the complete failure of Zogby to predict anything. He could probably predict that his polls acually mean something and would be wrong again.. Final polling to be completed tonight.

Stay tuned.......

Zogby's record in this primary has been terrible; they've been wrong about 90% of the time!

Zogby have been so bad. Have you noticed that CSpan stopped featuring them.

I would view this poll with deep hesitiation. Zogby's one day numbers were all over the place all weekend. The one day numbers were:

For Friday: C+ 9
Saturday: O +3
Sunday: C: +15
Monday: C +5

There is no pattern here, just movement. Todays number is high (as everyone should have predicted) because Saturdays very good day for Obama dropped out, but Sundays very good day for Clinton remained.

Had the race gone one more day, Zogbys numbers would have dropped down. Ironically, while the poll seems to show movement to Clinton, the one day internal result (Monday) actually showed movement to Obama. (From Clinton +15 to Clinton +5)

Does Zogby suddenly count, gotalife?

well, having traveled to some 50 countries, many more than once, and having read about their history, economies, culture, etc extensively, having worked in five countries, and speaking four languages, I'd say I know the world quite well.

And Albright doesn't impress me as a scholar either. But she's a "star" primarily as a function of being famous. That's all. And Obama's failure to produce does say something.

As for being President of the HLR, that also is an empty accomplishment, he didn't grade on, and the President is not even an editorial position.

And of the "scholarship" by AAs produced at my law skool, all of it was crap. Non-sense critical race studies. And nothing that was not afro-centric.

I AM OFF TO VOTE. DON'T KNOW WHO THEY ARE POLLING, AS I'VE SAID REPEATEDLY. NO POLLS HERE IN THE 6 WEEKS LEADING UP TO TODAY. IN OUR HOME IT'S 3-1 OBAMA. I PREDICT AN UPSET.

I predict a great victory today.

Zogby poll showed Kerry to win in the last Presidential.

'Nuff said!

I hope that Obama can keep the margin down to 5 or 6% or so.

Even though he has done a fine job eating into her lead in PA; it is clear once again that FUD wins out in political campaigns. The combination of the ABC debates and Billary's "Bin Laden and other Boogeymen" ad have worked the same magic that 9/11, Cheney,Rumsfeld, and GW did in getting people (including Billary) to believe we were occupying Iraq because they were responsible for 9/11.

Listen to GWs speech the night before we attacked Iraq and he mentions 9/11 eight different times.

Billary is in the same mode of operation. Win at all costs, divide and conquer, and scare the pantsuits off everyone so they vote for you and you big-money pharma, hedge fund, insurance company, and financial industry interests.

Well. I'm mad as hell and I am not going to take it anymore. If we don't have a forward thinking, progressive candidate on the ballot for President this Fall I'm not voting for the office of president. Supreme Court is already lost anyway...

Billary can ride off into the slimeset together!

Obama 2008!!

This, and other late polls showing Clinton's lead growing are very good for Obama. I predict that Clinton will win PA, but that the margin will be closer to 5-6%-- and having these late polls showing Clinton with a double digit lead make it easier for Obama to manage expectations while making it more difficult for Clinton to manage expectations.

Regardless of what happens tonight, this should all be over after Indiana and North Carolina.

Let's remember that there are hundreds of colleges in PA. College students are underrepresented in traditional polls because they don't have land lines. So my guess is that these polls are missing a few points for Obama.

Not just college kids, but the 18-35 demographic, I'd say, is far less likely to have a landline these days.

Good point. I don't live in PA, but most of my family is there. Large Irish Catholic family scattered from Philly to Reading area. Of all of them, none has been called by a pollster the entire time, so you have to wonder with all the polls, how this can be. And, they all have land lines. I wonder, too, whether pollsters have some formula to account for the fraction of people who will deliberately lie, or is that in the margin of error? I have only been called once, and it was a survey about condiments. I told them I hate mayonnaise, which is patently false. Let's hope PA voters have some sense today, but I'm not hopeful. It's that vast territory between Philly and Pittsburgh that is still very much The Deer Hunter land.

Have your 5-point win fun today, Hillary. That's your consolation prize.

(As we all know, the only way Hillary gets the nomination is by being a condescending out-of-touch elitist and seeking a superdelegate coup at the convention.)

Suspend your campaign, and endorse Barack Obama for President. The Bush nightmare needs to end, and for that to happen, it needs to *begin* to end. As long as you continue your vanity campaign, you enable the sycophant media even more to suck up to John McCain.

END IT TONIGHT!

If Zogby says big win for Hillary, I'm a happy man.

That is mostly my thought as well. As an Obama supporter, I am delighted to see her open a late lead in Zoghby's polls.

Is there a site that runs scorecards on these pollsters? Because from what I recall, Zogby ought to be working at Starbucks at this point.

Zogby - the Kiss of Death pollster!

Too funny!

Getting a lead with a Zogby Poll is like making the cover of Sports Illustrated before the big game.

51-41 with 8% undecided, and that will break heavily towards Clinton. It's going to be 14-15 point win, and that's going to ensure we're going all the way to the convention.

I don't have a good feeling about the final outcome today as an Obama supporter.

Is there a logical explanation as why Senator Obama is extending his lead nationally. For example he is up 3 points on the Rasmussen poll, and up 3 points on the Gallup poll, but according to Zogby in PA he is down 3 points...

It is very confusing...

How many of those college kids are from out-of-state? Wouldn't they be registered to vote in their hometowns, not PA?


Thank God!

Zogby has been terrible this whole election season.

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What's with all the publicity about Zogby's polls? It looks like his extensive marketing efforts pay off, even with politically astute websites like TPM. He gets people talking even when his track record is indifferent or worse. His skills are in public relations and NOT in polling.

PA has a great public university system, so many of the students are PA residents--lower tuition for in staters. Probably half of the private liberal arts colleges students are from PA. So, a good number of students there are probably PA residents.

According to Washington Post and ABC News, among independents Clinton has a 39% favorable rating.


The most recent Washington Post-ABC News poll charts Clinton's decline from a high point just after her victory in New Hampshire to a new low point this spring. In that time, her favorable rating underwent a 40-point swing among independents. In mid-January, 59 percent of independents said they had a favorable impression of her, compared to 39 percent unfavorable. Last week, it was the reverse: 39 percent favorable and 58 percent unfavorable.

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We need Hillary in the White House because she has the experience to know where the bathrooms are FROM DAY ONE. She's been shot at by imaginary snipers, she tried to push a failed health care bill through Congress and learned a lot from the experience, and she didn't just stay home and bake cookies like a lot of you gals. That's the kind of experience we need. Barack Obama? He's got a speech. And his years as a U.S. Senator. And his years as an Illinois State Senator. But that's it. He's never been shot at by imaginary snipers. He never tried to push a failed health care bill through Congress, and he didn't learn anything. And he'll need to have someone show him where the bathrooms are.

NOT READY FOR DAY ONE.

Had Obama been a white man - I think the polls would have been quite different. Apparently a woman- even- Hillary is preferable to Pennsylvanians than a Black.

Greg, it appeared that you were one of the few competent commentators left on this website but your last paragraph betrays you. You state that it appears from the most recent polls that late breakers are breaking her way. This has been the track record of previous primaries. Yet you cling to the hope that the remaining undecideds will break for Obama bringing a close to Hillary's campaign. Fat chance of that happening.
To paraphrase George Bush Sr., you are taking this Hope thing too seriously.

For some reason I do think that PA will be about on par with OH, maybe a bit more. So yeah, I could totally see a 10-11 point Clinton victory.

Insider Advantage Polling Monday night sees a potential trend for undecideds breaking for Obama:

The undecided vote moved slowly downward between our Sunday night survey and our Monday night round of polling. Since both samples had virtually the same number of respondents, it is fair to conclude that the last minute voters were moving more in Obama’s direction. That said, from my experience, if a voter is still undecided the day before a race, they likely are not voting. If I had to guess, and it would be a guess, I would see this as a 53% or 54% Clinton win. The only way this could be much closer is if this race has been so intense that the undecideds in the poll truly are undecided and they continue to break for Obama. Were that the case, Clinton would win by a much smaller margin, perhaps as little as two or three percent. Obama’s team is betting on this scenario, while Clinton’s folks are hoping that, as far as the undecideds that remain, they will behave as usual and not vote. We shall see.”

On Sunday I was out canvassing in PA for Obama and we noticed the high number of undecides leaning towards Obama as well.

Never mind. When I went back to the home page it loaded like it should. Sorry.
jim

IF Zogby is calling it 10 points for Hillary, don't be surprised if it ends up being more. Zogby has clearly exhibited an Obama bias of late in his polling. Look at Ohio and Texas.

In Josh's front-page post (not a thread) Prof. Franklin speculates on the effect of the undecideds, with the conclusion that if they break Clinton's way, her win could be big. But the good professor does not speculate on the effect of a large turnout and how that would affect the candidates. Clearly a large turnout could affect both equally, or could affect one candidate more than the other, depending on what counties the large turnouts occur in. In the big cities they would help Obama, elsewhere Clinton.

Not to disagree with the professor, but turnout could be as significant a factor as the undecideds, and the professor does not address that at all.

I give him a B+ for ignoring a huge factor in the election.

Blacks 4 Barack
(A Multi-Racial Org.)

Announces:
The 'WE WILL NOT BE CHEATED'
Phone Campaign To DNC !


Realistically speaking, it is a fact that even if Hillary wins Pennsylvania there is absolutely no way she can get enough delegate votes to defeat Obama and win the Democratic nomination. WE CAN'T LET HAPPEN IN PA.....AS DID IN OHIO !

In Ohio's election, 15 of the polling locations in Cleveland ran short of ballots. It just so happened that all 15 of these locations were in the black community. Once the shortage was 'discovered' (at 7:15 pm....after polling locations had closed) it was ordered by a regional judge to keep polling places open longer....actually until 9pm. Problem was that the workers at the locations had already closed up and gone home.....so the locations were not re-opened. Although there is a supposed investigation taking place, we want everyone to take note that these cheating tactics will not be tolerated ! If ANY cheating occurs in this Pa. election, we must DEMAND that legal actions be taken and the facts (culprits) revealed.

Hillary Clinton's coniving tactics will end up ruining the Democratic Party. Now is the time to let Howard Dean, Donna Brazil, Harold Ickes (both members of the DNC Laws & Bylaws Committee)and the entire DNC know that if Hillary wins through ANY methods deemed trickery (which is the only way she can win the nomination) WE....THE PEOPLE WILL NOT SUPPORT HER IN THE GENERAL ELECTION !
We are asking EVERYONE to call the DNC at 202-863-8000 to let them know 'We Will Not Support A Cheater !

We need 50 thousand Americans of all ages, races and creeds to FLOOD THE PHONES !!! Call Today !!!! 202-863-8000. Say It Loud....WE WILL NOT SUPPORT A CHEATER.....PERIOD!!! Tell everyone you know to make this call. The Time Is NOW....for the Re-Birth of America !!!!

NOTE: The Media refuses to inform America that OBAMA WON TEXAS.....Pitiful !!!!!

Visit: www.Blacks4Barack.org
(A Multi-Racial Organization....Dedicated To Truth !)

http://www.nytimes.com/
Great little delegate number cruncher just posted on NYT. Maybe somebody should send the link to HRC...

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