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Dems Poised To Defy History With Big Gains In House

Yesterday we brought you our roundup of the Senate races, showing that the Democrats are poised to expand their majority in that chamber. Now we've taken a look at the overall picture for the House.

The verdict? More or less the same — Dems are poised for major gains.

Democrats have only 17-27 House seats at any real risk.

By contrast, the GOP is going to have to defend between 25-33 seats.

Just as we did yesterday, we examined the ratings compiled by non-partisan sources, such as Larry Sabato, Charlie Cook and CQ.

Viewed as a whole, the outlook is pretty amazing. While history has taught us that a party that wins a "wave" election (as the Dems did in 2006) is poised for some losses two years later, we judge that Dems are in a position to expand their majority by anywhere from five to 20 seats.

First of all, the year is turning out to be a generally poor environment for Republicans as a whole, even if the presidential race might end up close. Recent polling shows the president's approval rating is only 32% — and even though Congress' rating is lower as an institution, Democrats still have a lead on the generic Congressional ballot of over ten points.

A good measurement of party confidence is the number of retirements a party has. Many older members might want to retire rather than struggle in a powerless minority, and relatively younger members might see private law and/or lobbying practices as a better use of their time.

Thanks mostly to the fact that far more Republicans than Dems are retiring from the House, only eight Democratic House seats have opened up, compared to 26 GOP seats.

That's more than 10% of the GOP's total party conference.

Many of those same retirements can trigger competitive races, creating new dangers for the party trying to hang onto the seats in question. Indeed, many of those open GOP seats are in Northeastern and Midwestern districts that have voted Democratic for president in the past or have gone only narrowly Republican.

The Republicans have also had the same generally poor run of luck as their Senate counterparts in the crucial area of candidate recruitment. After all, the perception that the GOP will continue to be in the minority is hardly an incentive for ambitious Republicans to run — if they win, their "reward" would be to serve in a powerless minority caucus.

This is perhaps best illustrated in the open seat of Rep. Jerry Weller (R-IL), where local mayor Tim Baldermann actually dropped out of the race shortly after he'd won the Republican primary, causing the GOP to have to seek out an unknown businessman to be the replacement candidate.

And in Alabama, the GOP failed at the last minute to recruit a conservative Democrat to switch parties and be their man for an open Democratic-held seat. This speaks to another problem the GOP has: Even in those deep-red seats held by Dems that could otherwise be put in play, the GOP has been chronically unable to recruit candidates to take on the tough assignment of swimming against the overall Dem tide.

The Democrats are also in better shape organizationally and financially. The most recent filings give the DCCC a cash-on-hand figure of $38 million, compared to a paltry $5.1 million for the NRCC. As such, the Democrats will be much better-positioned to fight across the various districts, and also to entice potential candidates with the promise of support — and the opposite holds true for the GOP.

If the normal dynamic after a wave election is that the winning party loses seats next time around, the Dems are poised to make history this fall, thanks to a favorable playing field, a GOP opposition unable to get its act together, and a strong organizational effort that they can bring to bear. The only question right now is how resounding the Democrats' coming defeat of conventional wisdom — and historical precedent — will be.


22 Comments

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This is going to be sooooo much fun! I almost can't stand it. I almost exploded here in '06 on election night and the next morning when I found out we had gone totally Democratic - just about every race - I really did just dance for sheer joy!

I can't wait!!!!!!

This has all the potential to be one of the most awesome election cycles for Democrats ever.

My feelings exactly. From Eric Kleefeld's lips to God's own ears...

Obama/Sebelius, please.

Two identity politics picks=media orgy the likes of which not seen since St. Ronnie. The Democrats just run a bunch of flashback, "Had Enough?" ads and Voila! Total landslide and progressive realignment.

Come on, Barack! Put Governor Sebelius on the ticket!

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Somewhere, Howard Dean is smiling.

That 50 state strategy doesn't sound so nutty, does it?

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Total landslide and progressive realignment.

I like the sound of that!

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That 50 state strategy doesn't sound so nutty, does it?


I love Howard Dean. The DNC called me night before last for money and I told the guy I just didn't have it - I'd gone broke on matching day - March31. But I ended pledging $200 and told him it was because of Howard Dean. Told him we were electing Democrats down here now because of Dean.

And the DLC fought putting Dean in charge up one side and down the other.

One of the main reasons I don't like Sen. Clinton.

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I think it could safely be said that Howard Dean is no Terry McAuliffe.

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When I get a call from the DNC, I always make a point of saying, yes, I will donate and it is because of Howard Dean's leadership.

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CT Voter - I liked that a lot - very dry and very funny.


Terry McAuliffe is the political equivalent of a dementor - he breathes on a candidate and they're doomed.

That explains the picture of him with the Obama sign. He's trying to jinx him!

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The "approval rating for Congress" is such a canard; comparing it to presidential approval ratings is apples and oranges. (I'm not faulting Eric for that; unfortunately, we don't have anything better.) But just for reference, the reasons why the comparison doesn't make sense are:

1. It's easier to hate a group than an individual, which is why the unpopularity of Congress is always higher than the unpopularity of nearly every individual congressman.

2. People don't vote for Congress, they vote for their congresscritter.

3. The rating is for all of Congress, no matter how often Republicans and our braindead political media describe it as the rating for "the Democratic Congress." In the one poll we've had in the past year that asked about congressional Democrats and Republicans separately, congressional Democrats rated well above the president, and the overall rating was dragged down by congressional Republicans having even lower approval than the president.

4. Anti-government conservatives can and do drive down overall congressional ratings by blocking action for purely political purposes, and then claiming it's evidence that "government doesn't work."

I wish we could have a simultaneous approval poll of each individual congressperson, and then slice and dice those results to get some meaningful comparisons. But it would be expensive and there's probably no one who would see it as worth their while to pay for it.

Or simply put: People have a low opinion of Congress as a whole, while feeling that their particular rep is doing a fine job.

It's always those "others", isn't it?

Me? My rep is fine by me, she can stay as long as she likes. And I like one of my Senators too. The other one is Slimy Norman (Quimby) Coleman. Votes a lot with Bush, when he can be bothered to take time away from skirt-chasing.

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I think we have a better chance of picking up thirty in 2008 than we did in 2006. I won't be surprised if the net gain is closer to 40.

The difference between the national committees' bank accounts and the number of Gooper retirements is just the beginning. That's going to spread the R's thinner than they will be able to cover. They won't be able to financially support all of their open seats and they won't be able to help vulnerable incumbents. The money advantage will give the Dems the ability to press the Republicans on both fronts. The NRCC will be forced to choose between a new candidate in a safe state who has no money, and helping an incumbent in Maryland or Illinois fend off a strong, well-financed challenger. They are very unlikely to actually triage a lot of races, so they'll spread what they have across dozens of contests, reducing the effectiveness of what resources they do have.

The economy is going to make a lot of Republican incumbents who are safe now a lot vulnerable in the fall. South Florida, SoCal, metro areas of Texas, Ohio, Illinois, Missouri, New York, and the mid-Atlantic region are going to be in play for Dems this November.

Coattails will also be a big factor. McCain's economic policies will be a boat anchor for downticket Republicans even in areas that still strongly support the Iraq war. Don't forget that the Republican voter base is going to be hit first and hardest by this recession. A competent Dem who makes the economy the first issue can seriously challenge any incumbent Republican, anywhere.

Obama will have much better coattails in purple states and districts, but the coup de grace will be if his local organizations go to work in congressional races. Ground game is everything in a House race, and Republicans have never seen anything like what we will be able to mobilize for canvasing and phone banking.

If the Dems make this that kind of coordinated fight, net thirty will be a low estimate.

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While we may see net gains this year, there's one thing that will differentiate 2008 from 2006: losses.

In 2006, for what I believe may have been the first time in history, the Democratic Party didn't lose a single seat it held going into election day--not in the House, the Senate, or any Governor's mansion. We had a perfect retention rate.

In 2008, we're bound to lose some incumbent, somewhere. That part of the wave simply has to roll back. We can't dodge that bullet a second time.

This is as important as electing the President, if not more so.

The first thing to remember is that the GOP is the party of money. In the current environment, wealthy people have been pulling their money out of the market. When the stock market goes up a few hundred points due to Fed rate cuts or bailouts, these people take advantage of the tide coming in to float their boats off the reef and set sail for other economies.

In other words, the market is "pricing in" President Obama - and at the same time attempting to limit his opportunity to make any changes during his term. This is the essence of Republican "borrow and spend" policies. The idea is to encumber the government with so much debt that no social policies, such as health care or legal reform, can be successfully implemented or funded.

Only a "war government", with a President and a veto-proof majority in both houses, can expect to pass the Rooseveltian kind of legislation that the American people need. The interests of American investors and entrepreneurs, and the interests of the rest of the American people, have become separated - partly because of cheap Chinese labor, partly because our entrepreneurs no longer aspire to build a greater nation.

So it will only be in 2010 or 2012 that the American people, rocked by gas prices, falling home prices, unemployment, and global unrest, will have to swallow hard and line up with President Obama and his Congress against the party of big business.

In this battle, it is likely that the MSM will begin as an enemy.

The US government will have to try to tax corporations on their overseas assets, and prevent wealth from leaving the country. The government and the bulk of the people will have to stand together in a crisis situation far more severe than 9/11.

This conflict will pit the poor against the rich. The rich will holler for law and order, and recommend repression, more police, more prisons, and so on. They will try to set the middle class against the poor classes, as usual; but the middle class should be able to see that what they're being offered isn't as tempting as it once was.

Therefore the attempt of the government to gain leverage over the financial system and to raise revenues that will be sufficient to feed and care for the people as a whole - this will be resisted fiercely. It might be necessary, for example, for the government to nationalize major industries (oil industry, drug industry, etc.) and set prices. It might be necessary for the government not only to lay the foundations of a socialized medicine, but actually to demand that licensed professionals contribute more pro bono publico than they do now.

I realize this sounds unlikely now; but I think it's probably pretty conservative.

If things play out like this, then Obama stands a pretty good chance of being, if not the father of his country, perhaps its savior. And the Democrats stand a good chance of ending up the only party that matters. The two-party system translated a period of time during which America could have done pretty much anything it wanted to. As we enter a period of time during which America will have to scramble to survive, either the American people will develop a completely new feeling of ownership of their own government - or it will fail, and the United States will be sold by its own investor class to the people who are already holding the whip hand in the global economy.

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obambam - I love that "Obama Your Face"! Is there a hi-res version of that somewhere I could use??

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Sorry, I should have said GREAT COMMENT as well!

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TPM!

Thank you for running this story and its sibling about the Senate yesterday. I truly appreciate the discussion of real news and the break from on-going hissy-fits between the two Republican-lites running for the DEM nomination.

Please . . . Pretty please with sugar on it . . . continue providing detailed news and analysis of the Congressional and Senate races.

Now if we can just get Nancy Pelosi to shut up we might even pick up a few more. This is the time for Dems to unite. Nancy Pelosi and leaky Leahy are not helping this cause by putting their foot in their mouths.

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Obambam=

that was prob. the finest, most well laid-out argument of what our future looks like...than I have ever seen. Bravo

Hearken, all of you. That was pure gold truth.

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Please remember that the republican party has been the party of endless money. PR dirty tricks work, but it sometimes can be counterd by enough public outrage. Every dirty trick the republicans pull in campaigns WORKS to some extent. Sometimes it just isn't enough. That is what I hope this election cycle. BUT the repubs, and the money parties in this country ALWAYS make things worse than they should be. Progress gets jilted, laws get reversed, loopholes are created. You can count on republican money to make every race more competitive than it should be. We will win less seats than we should. Less seats than voter sentiment allows. With their money, dirty tricks, election fraud, and a pliant corporate media....all the money in the world, all the ground game, all the voter sentiment is not going to make it easier for the dems. The repubs will pervert the systemand the will of the voters, and the elections will not truly reflect the mood of the country. It may go shockingly dem, but no matter what the dem wins will be less than they should.

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I'm not trying to be a wet blanket but it is only April and there's a saying about not counting your chickens before they hatch.

I get excited when I read an article like this in late October.

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