Gallup: Obama's "Small Town" Remarks Haven't Hurt Among Key Contituencies

Gallup is just out with the most fine-grained polling analysis I've seen yet on whether Obama's "small town" comments have hurt him, and it finds that the answer for now is No.

Gallup looked at the support Obama has among the constituencies he was referring to in his remarks, and found that his backing has dropped among them slightly, but by statistically insignificant amounts. Gallup found:

* Among Democratic voters who make $24,000 or less, Obama's support has dropped three points, from 47%-44%.

* Among Democratic voters with no college education, his support has dropped one point, from 41%-40%.

* Among Democratic voters who say they are worried about money, his support has dropped two points, from 55%-53%.

* Among Democratic voters who say religion is an important part of their lives, his support dropped one point, from 49%-48%.

Gallup's conclusion: "It certainly appears that, as of April 14 interviewing, Obama's remarks have not hurt him -- either among the Democratic electorate as a whole or among the Democratic constituencies Obama was referring to."

One caveat: Hillary is likely to continue running her ad hitting Obama over the comments between now and next Tuesday. It would certainly count for something if the Hillary campaign succeeds in swinging some three percent of the vote with the comments.

But the above polling suggests this might not happen. Either way, we won't know for certain until the votes are counted -- and the exit polls are in.

Late Update: Today's Gallup tracking poll shows a slight contraction in Obama's national lead, from 11 points down to eight. We'll find out over the next few days whether this was just noise and Obama's lead expands again, or whether Clinton can make real inroads thanks to the "small town" comments.


Comments (66)

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'For now" very foreboding and ominous sounding.

They found that it had no affect, but be very very scared.

Space Aliens have not invaded the Earth;

"For Now" OOOH, Be Very Very Scared.

right, more proof of anti-obama bias -- two words in a whole post about how this hasn't hurt him

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damn you and your secret hidden hillary bias, greg sargent! DAMN YOU!!!

seriously, keep up the good work.

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I'd second that.

In particular, I want to applaud Greg and the ElectionCentral crew for their new approach to polling posts, on display this week. The posts used to trumpet the topline numbers, offer a line of analysis, and a link to the release. More and more, the posts look like this one - offering bullet-pointed breakouts of the key findings, drawn from the cross-tabs and internals. That's a wonderful change. It takes hard work, and I, for one, appreciate it.

Totally agree. Nice work guys.

Eric and team,
I agree it has made it much easier to quickly understand the significance, if any in the latest polls.
Thanks for the great work.

I would just point out that a 3% swing means extremely little in reality. She can't pick up enough delegates to change the race on those terms. Hillary needs to convince supers that she's the more electable candidate and give them the political cover to do so, winning PA by 7% versus 10% isn't going to do it.

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One caveat: Hillary is likely to continue running her ad hitting Obama over the comments between now and next Tuesday.

The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results.

I've heard that, but I've always thought that was really the defintion of stupidity.

It's not the two words in this piece. It's the fact that every post about the polls since bittergate broke has two ingredients:

Evidence that the numbers haven't budged, followed by a writer for TPM saying inevitably "not yet".

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That "yet" caveat is silly. It makes them look like they're hoping that Obama will be harmed in the polls or something like that.

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Greg - here's an easy way not to be accused of anti-Obama bias: how about posting the fact that Obama got THREE Congressional super delegate endorsements today?

Three? I heard about only one. Who are the other two? I can't find anything in the news about it. (Surprise.)

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Two Congressmen from NC, via The Page

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Honestly, Greg. Only "two words"? You mean the "two words" in the lead paragrpah that caveat the entire story? What about the ACTUAL "caveat" a few paragraphs down? Or the non-contextualized reference to a "contraction" in the Gallup poll from an 11 to 8 point lead, despite the fact that the lead (in a poll of questionable credibility either way, in my mind, given that it is conducted daily) was 7 points immediately before the "bitter" controversy?

I'm disappointed in your response.

Greg Sargent is part of Hillary's own personal COINTELPRO, infiltrating Talking Points Memo to slip caveats into polling data! How despicable!

j/k

Late Update: Today's Gallup tracking poll shows a slight contraction in Obama's national lead, from 11 points down to eight. We'll find out over the next few days whether this was just noise and Obama's lead expands again, or whether Clinton can make real inroads thanks to the "small town" comments.


The difference is not statistically significant. Thus you cannot say that 8 percent is "real or noise" no matter how many times it replicates


Both 8 and 11 are statistically significant leads.

only thing you fear is fear itself.
stop hitting my head with "ooooh, be very scared".

Her lead will grow.

Good read in the New York Times:

"Mr. Obama is not a hapless victim. His comments made for just the sort of rookie error that the Illinois senator is prone to make, and they have reinforced a feeling that he can be too aloof, or, yes, elitist. His attempts to explain himself have fallen flat, as have his insulting Annie Oakley jokes and demands to see pictures of Mrs. Clinton in a duck blind. Sexist jabs are as offensive as racist jabs."

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/16/opinion/16wed1.html?_r=1&hp&oref=slogin

Time for Clinton to go for the knockout.

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New York Times speaks for small town America.

Maureen Dowd, in particular, has keen insight into small town America.

Not.

"Her lead will grow."

What lead is that? She has no chance for a knockout, only a TKO at the convention. Snce everybody seems to think it will be wrapped up before then, the odds don't look good for Hillary.

Calling her Annie Oakly was sexist?

Utter dellusion.

time for Clintons go for the knock out?!

What happened to "kitchen sink"?

I know you want this to be true... but alas, all the evidence shows it isn't. But I do agree with one thing: Obama "is not a hapless victim." That is certainly true. He's too strong and smart to be a victim...every time Clinton throws a wild punch, he is able to turn it with skill and class. Moreover, every "rookie mistake" he makes has been an opportunity to clarify his positions, leading eventually to greater support and popularity (cf. the latest Gallop polls showing him with a 10-11% national lead).

Really, I know you want Hillary to benefit from her twisting of his words...but in the end, her parroting of GOP tactics and messages will continue to undermine her. The only thing that will really be hurt by her will be her own long term reputation.

It looks like she's shadow boxing by pushing this after so little resonance with the electorate.

Forget the kitchen sink or the Tonya Harding approach. She's throwing a Poison Pill into the electoral cocktail. She brings BHO down using any reason, no matter how ridiculous, and prays that she gets the nomination. If BHO gets it, then the republicans have Clinton scripted talking points to finish what she couldn't. She then presumes McCain will win the 2008 GE, when in 2012 she runs again. By then Obama will be damaged goods, a la Kerry, and she'll be the party standard bearer. Tested.

If she can knocks out BHO now, then she thinks she beats McCain this cycle (and she probably would).

Either way, I bet the Clinton's think they win. The flaw in our (my) thinking may be that she's always got 2012 in four years. She's waited this long, what's four more years in her estimation? To make history, it's a flash in the pan.

This is Little Fish, and I approve this theory.

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I agree with your analysis but cannot for the life of me imagine that the Dems will give Clinton another chance in 2012 after she alienated so many Dems this time around.

In general, presidential candidates only seem to get one chance these days. I think that's a big reason Edwards didn't get very far this time, he was tagged as a loser from 2004.

I don't miss Mitt the Flip (aside from the humor factor), but I gotta hand it to him -- he got out of the race relatively early when he could see the writing on the wall so as not to dim his chances 4 years out, a lesson Clinton does not seem to have learned...

Once again, Gotalife shows his support for Obama with extreme subtlety and mathematical proof.

Gotalife makes the statement, "Her lead will grow," but he knows as well as we, that Hillary does not have the lead and has NEVER had the lead during this primary season. She has been behind Obama since Day One.

Her lead does not exist. If we plug her lead into a mathematical formula, we can get something that could power a spaceship in a Douglas Adams novel! Gotalife, once again, I am wildly impressed with the depth and intricacy of your arguments in favor of Obama.

Think it's gonna continue to grow after this gets out????

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/04/16/hillary-clinton-on-workin_n_97017.html

Screw Working class white people Bill! - Hillary Clinton

3 super delegates endorsed Obama today, 1 from IN 2 from NC.

He also picked up three more PA newspaper endorsements, including the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette.

Only out-of-touch elitists read newspapers.

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"One caveat: Hillary is likely to continue running her ad hitting Obama over the comments between now and next Tuesday."

Right, since it obviously has been so effective so far.

She doesn't have enough money to maker new ads or hire ad writers and actors. Or her internal polling tells her it's working, the same polling that told her it would be over February 5. Or she finally listened to Penn who recently recommended that she start going negative.

Or maybe she's not a good campaigner.

Take a look at the trendlines:
http://www.pollster.com/08-PA-Dem-Pres-Primary.php

They still show Obama gaining support, albeit more slowly. Clinton, by contrast, has been losing support.

Thank you for this link! Trending is the only thing that matters in these daily poll news releases. It's hard to know what is happening unless you put it into context with historical data.

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A large number of people still think that the main issue that came out of Obama's remarks in San Francisco is whether or not Pennslyvanians are "bitter". Hillary's job is to make them think about the implications of Obama saying that they cling to faith and guns out of bitterness. What does that say about Obama's attitude toward them? What does that say about Obama's attutude toward faith? And when they start to think about Obama's attiutude toward religion, they will think about his mentor Jeremiah Wright. What did Obama find so attractive about Wright? Did he cling to Wright out of bitterness? Was it racial bitterness? There are a lot more troubling questions that arise out of Obama's words than just the choice of the word "bitter", which is why Obama has been working so hard to re-frame the argument to just the question about whether or not people are angry. Sure, a lot of people are angry. But Obama thinks they cling to their faith out of bitterness. What does that say about Obama?

Shorter Otto: WRIGHT WRIGHT WRIGHT WRIGHT.

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Shorter Otto: whisper, whisper, whisper

I just realized that Otto is a teenage female..no one can hold a candle to a junior high school girl for whom whispers are her raison d'etre.

It says he possesses a base level of decent human respect in that he refuses to throw people under the bus just to get ahead.

Neither Clinton has this trait, and it has made them both pathological liars. The are accountable to no one.

There is truth in the words of both men for those who have ears to hear it. It's your responsibility to interpret it, not waste our time complaining about your own fears.

Pax,
M.

There's a long history of Catholics disagreeing with their popes, who often say controversial things, particularly the new one. Pope Benedict has said some things people find downright hateful. Why do Catholics cling to their popes and religion? What do they find so attractive? It's amazing how focused everyone and the media can become on one small church in Chicago when the pope/Catholic church have been in this position on a global scale for as long as anyone can remember. Maybe we're just used to it. Or ..?

OttoF, check this out. Tell gotalife and Louisville about it, too.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=exsmFDYyK4U

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It would certainly count for something if the Hillary campaign succeeds in swinging some three percent of the vote with the comments.

yet, not enough to make a difference where it counts, in winning the nomination.

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I guess "for now" means Hillary is intent on bludgeoning the bitter, gun-toting, bible-thumping rednecks with this "gaffe" until, dammit, they understand that Obama is an elitist who is looking down his nose at them (and Hillary isn't.)

One caveat: for the next week, every post written at Election Central must include at least one (1) caveat.

Forget my Reposado Gold, I want what gotalife is swillin'. That must be some good isht. Puts hair on yer arse and a fire in yer belly! Wooo!

And fer cripes sake people, enough with the OH NOES GREG CAN HAS BIAS! nonsense. It's really tiresome.

Greg, you're threading the needle as best you can. When all this is over, I'm getting YOU a bottle of Reposado for your troubles and we'll have a barbecue. Good work to you and the whole crew.

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Seconded (the kudos, not the offer of Reposado :-} ).

kin I have some of that isht?

I'm not bitter about this outcome.

I must be an elitist.

Uppity, in fact.

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If it isn't sticking as an issue and Hillary keeps hammering on it, who is it going to hurt? Is it suddenly going to dawn on people that they should be offended? Or are people going ot become bitter about someone telling them that they should be offended?

how could this be! the talking heads on tv were so sure this would dooom obama's candidacy...

but even now they're still not willing to concede they were wrong. now the argument has changed to, "It won't hurt him inthe primary but it'll definitelhy hurt him in the general" even tho there is NO EVIDENCE AT ALL TO SUPPORT THAT CLAIM!

One caveat: Hillary is likely to continue running her ad hitting Obama over the comments between now and next Tuesday.

ahem, correction: Hillary is likely to continue running her ads hitting Obama over the comments between now and the end of the primary season. After that she will loan her ads to McCain.

Correction: After that she will SELL her ads to McCain . . . still gotta pay the bills from Penn, small-town high schools and Dunkin' Donuts

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Today's Gallup tracking poll shows a slight contraction in Obama's national lead, from 11 points down to eight. We'll find out over the next few days whether this was just noise and Obama's lead expands again, or whether Clinton can make real inroads thanks to the "small town" comments.

The surge is working!

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Gallup themselves says there's no discernable trend in the polling over the past four days. And the numbers bear that out: 50, 50, 51, and 50 for Obama. Hillary's numbers over the same span: 41, 40, 40, 42.

LOL.

Too funny.

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Okay so here's where the whole thing's at, right?

Obama said it. We, here at TPM, all know about it. Hillary's using it. New polls are out and justly reviewed. It looks like it hasn't hurt. For now. But we won't know for sure for a week or so though.

So does that mean we can we let it go until then? I mean, until next week?

Or maybe for one day. Tomorrow, let's go for it. If nothing "new" burst onto the scene (Bill and Hillary continuing to bring it up is not "new".), then I bet we can, if we really set our minds to it. We can call it John McCain Thursday and spend the day attacking the Republicans.

What do you think? Could tomorrow be small town free? Oh hell, the debate. Never mind.

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it is interesting to observe that Obama polls lower in the middle of the week in both Gallup and Rasmussen daily tracking. Wonder why.

Crazy theory: people take Mondays and Fridays off from work at times, give themselves a three-day weekend. They're back at work during the middle of the week, but older retired folks are home.

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I said several times that this won't be that big a deal in the nomination fight. If Clinton goes too negative on it, it may backfire because a large part of the democratic constituency shares this prejuidice about small town/rural residents.

The repugs will use it in the general election, though, because it fits in with their strategy to position/frame whomever the democrats chose.

What does that say about Obama?

That he is RIGHT RIGHT RIGHT

"Well I was born in a small town...And that's probably where they'll bury me," and I am on balance okay with the propagation of the "Democrats=Urban Elitists" meme a little longer because:

(1) We Democrats need, finally, to answer it;

(2) Hillary Clinton is the poster child of the problem; and

(3) In Barack Obama we have an individual with the intellectual and communication skills to address the charge.

In the mean time (while Barack Obama is performing another of his amazing acts of political judo) I hereby nominate Senator Hillary Clinton for the 2008 Robert Taft Award, for service to the Republican Party. She is entitled to this award not for vigorous competition with her rival, which is her right and duty, but for placing her stamp of approval of the last remaining plank in the Republican campaign platform.

Oh, and as a once-upon-a-time resident of the City by the Bay, I hereby decree that Senator Clinton is banned from accepting any campaign contributions from my old zipcodes there. 94109, 94115, 94118, and 94133 are now off limits since they contain too many urban elitists. In exchange Senator Clinton may try her luck in 95971, 96118 and 96122. Since she is a Defender of the Small Towns and all.

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Well said, Marc.

I've been somewhat disappointed that more Dems in leadership positions haven't come out to help dispel the elitist tag. There couldn't have been an easier time to do it, but unfortunately, one of those flinging the arrows is another Dem. Makes it a bit uncomfortable, I guess.

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If this is the worst that can be expected from "Bittergate," it would seem that minds are pretty well made up now and very little changes that. Note the trend in the Gallup tracking poll. Except for one day (April 11 - before Bittergate), Obama has been at or above 50% since April 6 - a span of two weeks in terms of the three-day track. In that period Clinton has not been above 43% Thus, for almost two weeks support for Obama nationally has been outside the margin of error.
Of course, we all know that Pa. is not entirely reflective of the nation for purposes of the primary election. It will be more inclined toward Clinton, but probably not into double digits. Also, one interesting item in the internals of the Pa. polls is that they consitently show Obama getting about 75% of the black vote, which is way below his aveerage elsewhere. Is this the Nutter factor, or failure of polls to be able to get accurate data in the black community?

Eric and team,
I agree it has made it much easier to quickly understand the significance, if any in the latest polls.
thanks for the great work.

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