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Gallup: Obama Leads Hillary By Ten Points, Narrowly Edging McCain
Today's Gallup tracking poll gives Barack Obama a ten-point advantage over Hillary Clinton, matching his previous record lead. The numbers, compared to yesterday:
Obama 51% (+0)
Clinton 41% (-2)
In the general election match-ups, Barack Obama has taken a statistically insignificant lead over John McCain, while Hillary Clinton is tying McCain exactly:
Obama (D) 46%, McCain (R) 44%
McCain (R) 46%, Clinton (D) 46%
Obama took a one-point lead against McCain yesterday, his first edge of any kind in Gallup since the Jeremiah Wright story became a real controversy for him — a sign that he might have dealt with it successfully, or at least that it's been overshadowed by other issues for now.
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And underscores why Lanny Davis and the Clinton campaign are working overtime to re-inject into the political narrative.
April 9, 2008 1:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Why does Lanny Davis still have influence in this world? Why?
(If you can answer that, you can then tell me why Dana Milbank still has a job with the Washington Post).
(And then you can tell me why some people think Barack Obama is Tiger Woods....)
April 9, 2008 2:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wasn't that Tiger Woods comment just one of the most blatant of the campaign so far? Yet it got almost no play. Maybe the media thinks McCain's senior moments are contagious and his supporters have caught it.
April 9, 2008 4:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks for these! I hope someone has answers. I'd just like to add Chris Cillizza to the WaPo question.
April 9, 2008 4:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
Or in other words, Hillary has totally failed in a lame attempt to drag the Wright issue back into the public consciousness, and in fact, it has been totally overshadowed by her self-destructing campaign.
April 9, 2008 1:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
That thing that is so retarded to me is how people drag this "Obama has a Wright problem" out every time they mention his poll numbers as if he is the only person that has had controversy in his campaign.
Of course what they are really saying is "It seems like White folks aren't afraid to death that Obama is a Black man because we're so afraid of his scary BLACK ex-pastor and are refusing to vote for him YET".
I would like to see an analysis of every poll that ends with "We haven't seen if Hillary being exposed as a pathological liar in Tuzla-Gate has had an effect YET" or "We haven't seen if people will hold it against Hillary that she lied about supporting NAFTA YET". Or better yet "we haven't seen if people are holding it against John McCain that he calls his wife a c*nt in public YET".
April 9, 2008 2:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama will win. McCain is truly losing this election, along with his mind. Who calls your wife a c**t IN PUBLIC and gets away with it?!
April 9, 2008 1:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
Is that story for real? If so, that is pretty nasty, and probably deserves some airtime. The issue of McCain's temper should be a key one in the general election. I think Americans really prefer some degree of inner peace and serenity in their President...I think it will make people uneasy when they consider turning the nuclear launch codes over to a guy who writes his apology notes ahead of time, because he knows he is going to explode and call somebody a "Fuckin Jerk" at some point....Dear Mr. Ahmadennijad, Sorry for the tactical nuke strike, but your Quds brigades were REALLY PISSIN ME OFF!
April 9, 2008 1:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
The story is for real, it happened in front of several reporters. And truly, who uses the word trollop anymore? You just don't make that stuff up. Yes, McCain thinks his wife is a trollop and a c**t, his words SAID IN PUBLIC. His excuse, long day.
April 9, 2008 1:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't want to be the one to defend McCain, but the story doesn't source the reporters. It's gossip to be sold in a book slamming McCain. It's about as accurate as all those Hillary Power Hungry books and the sure-to-come Obama's Muslim Secret books.
It's odd that a lot of Obama supporters on this site don't feel badly about spreading viscious smears so long as they benefit their candidate.
April 9, 2008 1:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
I am sure the reporters would go on record; besides, who makes up the word trollop? Get real, it is right up his alley.
April 9, 2008 2:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
You get real. The story is funny and the word "trollop" is awesome, but it's obviously a ploy to sell a book.
"The Real McCain by Cliff Schecter, which will arrive in bookstores next month, reports an angry exchange between McCain and his wife that happened in full view of aides and reporters during a 1992 campaign stop. An advance copy of the book was obtained by RAW STORY."
"Three reporters from Arizona, on the condition of anonymity, also let me in on another incident involving McCain's intemperateness."
That starts the story. Until this is confirmed by another source or two, spreading it around the way you do makes you seem extremely petty and immature.
One thing I've realized during this campaign is that the far left has just as many idiots as the far right. And you always ruin things for the rest of us.
April 9, 2008 2:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
anonymity.........isn't that how Watergate started? Go to your Rush radio and be among friends.
April 9, 2008 2:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
anonymity...isn't that how the Obama Muslim e-mails got started? Go back to your middle school lunchroom and be among your gossipy friends.
April 9, 2008 2:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
another_reader, I just knew you started those Obama email rumors.
April 9, 2008 2:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
If the story is true, the three reporters hiding behind anonymity are even bigger douchebags than McCain.
April 9, 2008 2:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'd love to see this story proved true, but as of right now it seems like pure gossip. See above for my reasoning.
April 9, 2008 2:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
No author would print anything so vile unless he had the proof to back up his story. Lawsuit time otherwise. I believe it, I lived in Arizona with McCain lies for years. His affairs, his Keating 5 debacle, his offensive name calling on many levels, his wife's (Cindy) violation of Federal drug charges with a walk given to her, etc. He was a war hero, now he just wants to drop the hero part, too bad.
April 9, 2008 2:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
Any links to this story? I've seen people talking about it, but have yet to find a story.
April 9, 2008 2:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
http://rawstory.com/news/2008/McCain_temper_boiled_over_in_92_0407.html
Link for McCain story.
April 9, 2008 2:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thenk you very much!
April 10, 2008 1:23 AM | Reply | Permalink
Here's some more good news:
APWU endorses Obama
http://apwu.org/news/forthepress/pressrel080409_obama.htm
The Portland Tribune endorses Obama
http://www.portlandtribune.com/opinion/print_story.php?story_id=120760314372978000
April 9, 2008 1:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
Beware, Clinton fans. I wouldn't mess around with the American Postal Workers Union.
April 9, 2008 3:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
Come on gotalife, this is right up your alley! Grab your Race Cards and we will play a quick game!
April 9, 2008 1:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
Survey USA is the only credible poll.
Poll bias is another story this cycle.
April 9, 2008 1:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
Come on, you can troll better than that.
April 9, 2008 1:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
gotalife: here in Mexico, in the past presidential elections here was a candidate (from the left party) who started the race 10 points ahead of everyone in the polls. Three months before the elections the polls marked that the candidate of the conservative party took the lead. To the left party candidate all the polls where wrong and tricked, hat only HIS poll where correct and in that one he still had 10 points of advantage.
You must know who won the election.
April 9, 2008 1:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
The con won but tossed ballots since they had video of it.
April 9, 2008 3:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
Not according to Survey USA. According to their survey report card, Gallup is quite reliable.
http://www.surveyusa.com/index.php/2008/02/06/2008-pollster-report-card-through-super-tuesday-includes-all-pollsters/
April 9, 2008 2:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
Nice try.
#12.
You are not credible.
April 9, 2008 3:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
you are thick.
Survey USA ranks itself #9, with an average error of 4.5. Gallup is ranked #12 with an average error of 4.6. The statistical test wasn't done, but I'm going to go out on a limb and say that those two values are not significantly different.
April 9, 2008 4:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
What a dumbass. There's a tenth of a point difference between Survey USA and Gallup. Learn how to read.
April 9, 2008 4:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
Here--here's their report card, rated by median error. I know you Hillary supporters have simple minds, so don't be confused by the fact that Survey USA gives both themselves and Gallup the top ranking. It's called a "tie."
http://www.surveyusa.com/index.php/surveyusa-report-cards/
April 9, 2008 4:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
How is saying one poll's the only credible one NOT POLL BIAS in and of itself?
April 9, 2008 3:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReportPopup.aspx?g=c79e5bab-a424-49f6-86d6-50c61cf729b7&q=45558
Nuff said.
April 9, 2008 1:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
Gotalife, here's an easy one for you. Please answer: Why is Hillary Clinton scoring lower than Ron Paul on Intrade?
April 9, 2008 7:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ooops, wrong link:
http://www.mydd.com/story/2008/4/8/173948/8327
April 9, 2008 1:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wrong link because you seem to be a missing link.
April 9, 2008 1:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
The links you provide never support your claims.
That article just says that 3 current polls have the margins at 5, 6 and 18 points and that there is no conclusion whatsoever to be made about which one is correct.
April 9, 2008 2:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
The credible one.
Survey USA.
April 9, 2008 3:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
Humorous.
There are 7 pollsters that have done PA primary polls since April 1. Six of the seven put the spread between even and Clinton+6 inclusive.
And SUSA says Clinton+18.
Hey, it's not impossible they're right, but I'll put my money on the other 6 any day of the week. No outlier like this has outperformed the pack consensus yet in this cycle that I know of, no matter who they are.
April 9, 2008 3:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
Why did you post that link? It completely fails to support what you're saying.
April 9, 2008 4:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Definitely not good for Hillary. I've been expecting to see it turn around again in the last few days, but so far it hasn't.
As for the Wright controversy, I believe Obama handled it brilliantly, as far as the Democrats are concerned. About half of them were already his supporters, and most of the Hillary supporters aren't willing to make an open issue of Wright to any great extent. Behind the scenes, yes indeed, but not openly. But it will be a big issue in the Fall match up with the GOP if Obama gets the nod, and his approach to it will not have the same effect it had on Democrats. Plus Obama's race problems go beyond his pastor. I've noted a sense that Obama "may have put the issue behind him". I believe that to be a very dangerous illusion. We're in the calm before the storm as far as that issue is concerned.
April 9, 2008 1:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
If the public is offended by Pastor Wright, a friend, then they have to be offended by a presidential candidate calling his wife a c**t. Fair is fair.
April 9, 2008 1:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
"Plus Obama's race problems go beyond his pastor."
Translation....this country will never vote for a Black man.
Well that remains to be seen...I think it is more fun for people to sit around and speculate on impending doom that the boogeymen Republicans are going to destroy Obama with an issue that he was already addressed and dealt with. This has been the problem with weak and pathetic Democrats all along...sooooo afraid of Republicans.
If it wasn't Wright, it would have been and would be something else...because the funny little thing about racists is that they don't really need much of an excuse.
Wright will not be the downfall of Obama although it will just be the excuse that racists will use. The entire world is watching and the entire world knows better...the only question is does this country know better?
April 9, 2008 2:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
#9 race card.
April 9, 2008 3:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
I've already addressed your stupidity and ignorance in another post to which you had NO REPLY. You're too dimwitted to actually have a real debate on the issues. I hope your real life isn't as pathetic as your virtual one is.
April 9, 2008 4:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm thinking, more now than when the surge was "working," that Iraq will be a much bigger issue than Wright when fall comes around. And it will be a much more negative issue for McCain.
People aren't going to care that much about a few rants from an old preacher when compared with continuing quagmire.
April 9, 2008 3:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
Exactly.
April 9, 2008 3:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
The Wright controversy is not going to make the slightest bit of difference. In the past week, I've seen more than one financial expert on places like CNN and MSNBC talking seriously about how we could actually be facing not just a recession, but a depression. Americans are already suffering the effects of Bush's idiotic economic policies, and are genuinely worried about the future. McCain's support for Bush's policies will doom his campaign.
Anyone who thinks Americans are going to vote for four more years of war and economic crisis simply because of something Obama's preacher said is seriously nuts.
April 9, 2008 5:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
"If the public is offended by Pastor Wright, a friend, then they have to be offended by a presidential candidate calling his wife a c**t. Fair is fair."
Is there a link for this?
More McCain fun facts:
- Famously cheated on his new wife Cindy with Vicki Iseman, who has probably been smuggled out of the country until November.
- Cheated on his exwife Carol with new trophy wife Cindy
- Used the word g**k for Vietnamese unapologetically in 2000
April 9, 2008 1:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
http://rawstory.com/news/2008/McCain_temper_boiled_over_in_92_0407.html
Link for McCain story.
April 9, 2008 2:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Let's not forget the REAL Cindy McCain news:
Salon Article
One of the first links in a simple Google search. It's not just a matter of her being a bit of an addict - it's the minor technicality of setting up a non-profit so she could obtain her candy for free.
For all the Bias crap Goatlife likes the spew, this is an indicator of the true bias we're running against this year.
April 9, 2008 2:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
The public doesn't care about Wright. They care about how candidates handle challenges. Obama shined in the Wright challenge.
The only thing the Wright issue is good for is helping talk-radio sell commercials. The rest of the nation shrugged it off.
April 9, 2008 2:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
Eric, I hate to be picking on you again, but why is Obama's two-point lead "statistically insignificant" while Clinton's tie with McCain is "exact"?
And why, after reminding us that Obama's two-point lead is statistically *insignificant*, do you choose to speculate that his one-point lead as of yesterday could be a *sign* about anything?
Either the lead is significant (a sign of something) or its not, but you appear to be trying to have it both ways.
Either respect the margin of error across the board or don't, but *please* don't pick and choose whether do so based on whether or not it gives you an opportunity to inject spin one way or another.
April 9, 2008 2:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
- Famously rested his straight-talking head on President Bush's chest as he hugged the President tightly.
April 9, 2008 2:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
Side note, the enthusiastic Portland Tribune endorsement that just came out (this is a small, 2x weekly paper that does a pretty good job in local reporting, albeit is funded by a rightie evangelical millionaire) I think is pretty meaningful given the general right-ish leanings of this paper. Our main paper, the Oregonian, endorsed Obama quite a while ago.
April 9, 2008 2:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm gratified to see that in today's PPP poll Hillary leads Obama by three points. In their last poll a week ago she trailed him by two points.
April 9, 2008 2:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
Woops, sorry, my comment was supposed to be in reply to an earlier comment about the Tribune endorsment.
On topic, the trendlines in the Gallup poll are looking really, really good. This is a 3-day rolling average, correct? So that would indicate that Hillary's most recent numbers are getting really low. I hope that this augurs an acceleration toward the inevitable conclusion of this endless primary season....
And no Hillary folks, as an Oregonian I don't care if this contest wraps up any time between now and May 6th-ish and thus our May 20 primary "doesn't count"--it never has before and yet life has always gone on just fine.
April 9, 2008 3:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
The interesting part of the Gallop trend lines are that Obama is staying relatively flat at about 51% and Clinton is slowly slipping although not by any large margin.
April 9, 2008 3:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
On his Report last night, Stephen Colbert presented some elementary school drawings of the candidates. My favorite was a drawing of Barack Obama, misspelled "Brock." I love that. That's what I'm going to call him from now on: Brock. (Unless, of course, it turns out that the drawings were done by his writing staff. Then I'm going to feel stupid.) And, what's this? Brock's up by ten points nationwide! See how well that works?
April 9, 2008 3:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
"If Senator Obama is not able to win Pennsylvania with all the resources he has thrown at the state... it will again demonstrate that he has serious problems winning the large states and closing the deal with voters," said Clinton's spokesman Howard Wolfson.
Ugh. Saw this coming. Goalpost moving, ahoy.
April 9, 2008 4:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think it's time for another Pennsylvania bus tour. If he loses, big frickin deal. He'll come close, just like Texas, Ohio, and California.
No biggie.
April 9, 2008 4:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
Uh, Obama won Texas, actually. Contrary to what CNN and the Clintonistas tell you, the Texas caucuses DO count.
April 9, 2008 5:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
It actually isn't a big deal.
Big states don't count more than small states.
All that matters is the Delegate count, which Obama is winning (Thanks, in part, to Texas, as hrebendorf mentions).
April 9, 2008 5:30 PM | Reply | Permalink