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Gallup: Hillary's Pennsylvania Win Boosts Her National Support
Today's Gallup tracking poll shows that Hillary Clinton is definitely enjoying a bounce in the wake of her Pennsylvania primary win. The numbers, compared to yesterday:
Obama 48% (-1)
Clinton 47% (+3)
From Gallup's analysis:
The latest results, based on Gallup Poll Daily tracking from April 22-24, include two days of interviews conducted entirely after Tuesday's Pennsylvania Democratic primary. Support for Clinton is significantly higher in these post-primary interviews than it was just prior to her Pennsylvania victory, clearly suggesting that Clinton's win there is the catalyst for her increased national support.
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Rasmussen shows the opposite, Eric. You should post that for fairness.
April 25, 2008 1:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
Actually for fairness Eric should explain how meaningless these national polls are since the primary is a state-by-state process and 43 states have already voted.
April 25, 2008 1:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't really post on Rasmussen's tracker because they use a four-day tracking sample, much less precise than Gallup's three-day period. And even this Gallup poll has some pre-primary data in there.
April 25, 2008 1:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
3-day tracking is much more precise than 4-day tracking....shouldn't you say "somewhat" more precise?
April 25, 2008 1:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
Rasmussen did have pre-primary data in its poll today.
April 25, 2008 1:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
I still think the information should at least be given with the gallup results, in the interest of fairness.
April 25, 2008 1:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
I agree.
April 25, 2008 1:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
That doesn't make any sense. A four day average isn't "less precise," it just smooths the data a bit more.
April 25, 2008 2:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
"However, the percentage of Democrats supporting Obama has changed little (declining from 50% in April 19-21 polling to 48% today). Most of Clinton's increased support (from 40% to 47%) has come from previously undecided voters." I love how you leave this part out.
April 25, 2008 2:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
So, once again, in the interest of journalistic fairness, that second paragraph should be included.
April 25, 2008 2:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
But that would go against the message that Hillary is "coming back", so it is all about how great Hillary is doing, see last post.
April 25, 2008 1:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
Exactly. It's just horse-race coverage. Most intelligent people know this thing is locked-up, but that's not interesting... so they sorta have to report how they are. Keep us riled up.
April 25, 2008 1:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
We've already seen this movie - I wonder where the polls will be come Monday.
April 25, 2008 1:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
And yet Rasmussen shows no such bounce. Thanks for pointing that out to provide context.
April 25, 2008 1:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Where's Lanny Davis when you need him? I want to see him write an op-ed about how this shows that Hillary is more electable, only to be proven wrong when Obama regains a significant lead next week.
Cause that kind of hilarity is what is needed right now.
April 25, 2008 1:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
I swear EVERY week you post these stupid tracking polls as evidence of 'x' or 'y', only to have it reverse itself in the next few days.
This poll is IRRELEVANT.
April 25, 2008 1:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
True. Greg. Just post the figures, they'll speak for themselves. I've made it a habit to skip the last paragraph of these poll 'summaries.'
Sincerely.
April 25, 2008 1:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
Except this was posted by Eric, but the larger point of the TPM editorial bias is valid.
April 25, 2008 3:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
It also said:
Both Clinton and Obama have experienced surges in support for their candidacies at various times since the start of the primary season -- several of them linked with primary wins and other high profile events -- only to see the race revert back to a near tie position. The last time Clinton moved into a significant lead over Obama was over a month ago, in mid-March, and that was only briefly. It remains to be seen whether Clinton will pull ahead of Obama in the next few days, or if she is able to sustain her current competitive positioning through and beyond the next round of primaries on May 6.
April 25, 2008 1:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
oops, that last paragraph was part of the quote too.
April 25, 2008 1:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't how Kleefeld can use the word "definitely" in connection to any poll in this election -- particularly a freaking tracking poll.
Everyone seems to have a hard time getting a grip these days.
April 25, 2008 1:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
She got 1 super.
The deck is stacked against her but she will still win.
The supers need to do the right thing because folks are starting to get pissed they did not reward her after the thumpin in PA.
They rewarded Obama for losing.
It stinks to high heaven.
April 25, 2008 1:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
Quit your whining. Hillary Clinton's Zombie campaign is a lost cause.
April 25, 2008 1:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
"The deck is stacked against her but"
That's really hillarious goatlife.
April 25, 2008 1:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm sorry folks. I'm really having a childish day today.
April 25, 2008 1:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
You've come to the right place, the sandbox is open!
April 25, 2008 1:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
"This is for me a no-brainer," Gov. Strickland said. "If we're going to plan to win in November, we need to choose the candidate that has the greatest strength in the states that are necessary to get us the electoral votes we need." He added: "I hope the superdelegates are paying attention."
The supers gave her 1.
It bs and they want to lose three in a row.
They should do the right thing and reward for winning.
Is that how you want to win trolls?
April 25, 2008 2:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Whiner!
And you calling anybody a troll is Hill-areous.
April 25, 2008 2:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
They should do the right thing and reward for winning?
Agreed. The superdelegates should support the leader in elected delegates.
April 25, 2008 3:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
By your idiotic standard, ALL the supers should have announced for Obama after he won 11 in a row.
Oh, wait. They didn't count.
LOL.
Such a putz.
April 25, 2008 1:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
A little off topic, but who are these delegates pledged for Obama?! I just read No Quarter that Rozita E. Swinton, the alledged hoax caller with the FLDS ranch in Texas is actually a pledged delegate for Obama in Colorado! Aside from this hoax call, she's got quite a sorid history. Is this the norm for Obama's delegates?!
Check out the links from this blog post for more details.
Matthew
http://www.TheIndependentView.com
April 25, 2008 1:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hillary would throw all of Pennsylvania under the bus to get some mountain state support. Sadly for her, that will never happen.
Keep up with those six-degrees-of-separation guilt-by-association arguments. They are such winners.
April 25, 2008 1:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
A "little off topic".....never stopped you before.
April 25, 2008 1:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ahh, Noquarter - a website so dedicated in smearing Obama that I'm convinced, that if any harm is ever inflicted on Mr Obama(lord forbid) - that the culprit would turn out being one of that sites frequent visitors.
April 25, 2008 2:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
Change your avatar back, and free the wombat!
April 25, 2008 3:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
Americans learned that his former pastor gave angry anti-American speeches, that Obama was friends with a former terrorist, and that he seemed to think small-town voters "cling" to God and gun-ownership because they're bitter about the economy. Obama supporters blame Clinton for negative and nasty campaigning, but she didn't pick his church, his friends or his words for him.
Clinton was always more appealing to ordinary, working-class Americans than Obama. While he based his campaign on the promise of 'hope' and 'change,' she offered a catalogue of policies and programs to address concrete concerns.
The economy was the number one issue in Pennsylvania, just as it is nationwide, and voters worried about it voted for her, by a clear margin. But beyond the less affluent, less educated base she has attracted all through the campaign, race mattered more in Pennsylvania too. Nearly two-thirds of all whites cast their ballots for her. Clinton has argued consistently that she should win the Democratic nomination because she'd be more likely to defeat the Republicans and win the White House.
She is Wright. Obama needs to drop out and drop out quickly.
April 25, 2008 1:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
less than two weeks away from Obama Indiana victory. :D
Now that this race has come closer to home I'm not paying the press any attention.
I never thought this race would still be going on by the time it came to the Indiana primary.
April 25, 2008 1:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
[...]Thanks for the weather report Marcy, next up we have Eric Kleefeld with breaking news that is too little too late; Take it way, Eric!
April 25, 2008 1:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
Are they polling different people each day or the same pool? Cuz this poll fluctuates a LOT. I don't think its credible.
Rae
April 25, 2008 1:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
Is this the same RaeK???
Where's the invective, the racial hatred?
Where's the FUN Raek?
April 25, 2008 2:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
You said it. Someone call the FBI, we may have a kidnapping on our hands.
April 25, 2008 3:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
i am so pleased to see that the above information shows that more people in america are starting to once again, believe that Hillary Clinton should win and become our President.... I believe more of the national polls, state primary polls and general election polls, will begin to show that hillary clinton is stronger & more experienced then Barack Obama.
Polls show her winning Indiana according to ARG & SurveyUSA offical websites.
Polls show the race in North Carolina is tight, with Barack Obama winning by single digits according to SurveyUSA offical website.
GO HILLARY!@!!!!!!!!!
April 25, 2008 1:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
SurveyUSA has Obama with a 9% lead in NC. He's been hovering between 8-10% in their poll since February and he's never topped 10%. So the latest poll shows absolutely no trend either way. Now, back in November of 2007, Hillary had a 24% lead over Obama in that state...but that was a lifetime ago.
April 25, 2008 2:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
She is going to win North Carloina. After the Wright speeches coming and the Fox News appearence by Obama, the numbers will grow in her favor.
His media is starting to turn on him because they see what is coming.
A train wreck.
April 25, 2008 2:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
Another prediction from Gottalife? How cool is that?
Let's see, first he said Clinton would win PA by 30. Then he said 20. Then she won by 9 and he said he didn't mean 20, he meant 10.
Trust noghting the ironically named Gottalife says, he is an idiot.
April 25, 2008 2:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
Typical. Survey USA gets quoted when it's "favorable" to Clinton, and gets dissed by Ms. Addicted to Exclamations when it isn't.
Which, come to think of it, is pretty consistent with how the Clinton campaign actually behaves. It's delegates that count. Until they don't. Then it's the popular vote. Until it isn't. Carry on!
April 25, 2008 2:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
I knew there would be a momentary bounce in the polls. Who didn;t see that coming? It'll settle back in the 7 to 10 pt range for Obama by Monday.
April 25, 2008 2:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hillary overtook Obama for an entire two days after the debate. Her biggest campaign flaw is her focus entirely on fickle media narrative, expecting that ever elusive momentum.
April 25, 2008 2:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
In the only national polls that matter, after 87.5% of the precincts reporting (pledged delegates), Senator Obama is leading 52.5% to 46.9%.
To overcome that deficit, Senator Clinton needs 70%-30% wins in ALL remaining contests.
Daily tracking polls are meaningless.
April 25, 2008 2:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
I like the framing of your comment. Report the delegate count as precincts reporting and the spread, and it certainly throws into sharp relief how over the contest for the nomination really is mathematically.
April 25, 2008 3:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Gallup seems very sensitive to brief shifts.
Before the Pennsylvania debate, Obama had about a 10 point lead. A couple of days after the debate, Clinton actually had a lead.
Then Obama's lead crept back up to near 10, until a couple of days after the primary where Clinton closed the gap to 1.
These bounces seem temporary. In the absence of events, Obama seems to have a significant lead. It'll probably get back up there soon.
April 25, 2008 2:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
His media is starting to turn on him
careful don't hurt your neck with all those contortions
April 25, 2008 2:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
Reality Check:
On April 18th, won week ago from today, Gallup had Senator Clinton within one point of Senator Obama. That was before the Pennsylvania Primary.
Not very long ago; TPM made a big case about how the Gallup poll may have a sampling flaw because of the way that Senator Obama's Lead keeps shrinking and expanding in a regular day by day pattern. Remember that; guys?
Click on the Gallup link and take a look at their chart for the past couple of weeks. It shows that this Friday is no different than last Friday, as far as Obama's margin goes.
TPM were the first to point out that on going pattern.
Suddenly, this week, TPM has developed amnesia about their own previous reporting on the Gallup pattern, and now pretends that they have discovered some thing new in the Gallup poll that they had not seen before; except TPM actually made a big deal out of how it has been happening in that pattern for several previous weeks.
Hillary is not the only one that keeps moving the goal posts. TPM is lending a big hand.
April 25, 2008 2:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
I came here specifically to make that point, liam. Well done. You did it more clearly that I was going to ;)
April 25, 2008 2:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
The goal posts have been moved so far back that they're sitting in Eric's front lawn.
April 25, 2008 2:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sen. Barack Obama continued accepting donations from oil company executives and employees last month even as he aired ads in which he stated he took no oil company money, his campaign finance reports show. The hits keep coming in the media meltdown at the Barack Obama campaign. As local police, the Texas Rangers and the FBI investigate the hoax phone call that lead to the massive raid on the Texas polygamist compound, word emerges that the woman arrested for the hoax is … a pledged delegate to the Obama campaign.
The hater Rev Wright is back and bringing the awful attention to the Democratic party. Wright confirms that Oilbama agrees with what he says but says Oilbama lies like a politician. This Wright idea that Aids was put in the African community is Whackadoo Nutjobish. Oilbama needs to drop out quickly before he puts McCain in the Whitehouse by himself.
April 25, 2008 2:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
Aryan Nation Troll(ANT) Alert!!
Dembillc has crawled out of his compound sewer.
April 25, 2008 2:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oh yes and lunitic whackjobs like Liam think that anyone who does not drink the bitter Oilbama koolaid is a racist. Or maybe I am black and an Uncle Tom? Or maybe I have a brain and see wright thru Oilbama's bullshit.
April 25, 2008 2:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
Your comments reveal quite an ugly side to you.
April 25, 2008 2:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oilbama refuses to debate, Oilbama refuses revotes in Michigan. Oilbama bowls a 37. Oilbama's preacher says that Oilbama agrees with him but spins like a politician to disassociate himself with Wright.
Time for this limpwristed chickenshit Oilbama
to drop out.
April 25, 2008 2:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
LOL... your post is unintentional self-parody at it's finest. I really like the "limpwristed" (sic) bit. Classic of asshattery on your part. What next, Obama sucks dick?
April 25, 2008 3:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
Here's a pretty good rant that says what many of us are thinking. Give it a read:
http://www.commondreams.org/archive/2008/04/25/8526/
-- ARG
April 25, 2008 2:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think he's over the top in his dmeonization of Hillary, but his main point is 100% true: If Obama was in Hillary's position in this primary, he would be treated as a pariah and/or laughingstock by the entire Democratic establishment. I don't understand the vice grip the Clintons have on a large segment of the establishment Dems. In any event, they should have gotten behind the clear winner weeks ago, and drummed her out of the race for the good of the party.
April 25, 2008 4:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
ROFL
This is less than statistical noise Eric.
April 25, 2008 3:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
Come on.
No one has done more for Pennsylvania than Barack Obama.
April 25, 2008 6:31 PM | Reply | Permalink