Bitter, bitter.

Totally meaningless numbers, Greg. As much as I currently think Hillary is a destructive force for the Democratic Party, Supreme Court Justices mean too much. Iraq means too much. The economy means too much. Ditto the EPA, FDA, FEMA, the DoJ, and on and on. The party will rally around the nominee.

Why is it startling? People are incredibly supportive of their candidate and aren't going to say they'll support the other at this point in the campaign, especially on the day of the friggin primary!!

This is a stupid poll.

These numbers obviously reflect the passions of the moment... [but] this is inarguably a pretty grim starting point for either Dem in a state that will be so crucial to Dem hopes of retaking the White House this fall.

No kidding. Both Clinton and Obama partisans had best hope that these numbers are totally bogus, because otherwise we are in real trouble. Those percentages are so steep that it really does not matter that more Clinton voters than Obama voters would be willing to bolt; both represent a percentage of defection so steep that McCain would win.

I hope that this puts to rest the claim that the extended primary season is good for the party. This was true up until around Ohio, but we are past that point and it is only getting worse from here on out.

Does anyone seriously believe that Hillary won't campaign on Obama's behalf if/when she loses the nomination. With or without the VP slot, she's gonna do it, because it's in her best interest. This support delta will fade substantially.

DanF, we control those things through Congress, not the Presidency. Get out there and work for a Congress with a spine.

Also, there's all make of blather on MSNBC about the *dream ticket* but what they're forgetting is the Obama CAN'T have HRC on his ticket because of Bill. I can just see Bill out there running with all his foundation buddies creating havoc every which way but loose for the Prez. No way.

The supers need to grow a spine and end this thing. There is no point at all to continuing it especially since the Clintons are out of money and vowing to continue *drawing contrasts* (read negative tabloid ads) that will do nothing but tear the party to shreds.

If the supers let it go on, they deserve to lose the WH AND all the down ticket pluses they would have had with Obama.

Good lord, this is an 8% win at this point. Could get higher, yes, but could get lower. And it could remain the same. Hillary Clinton began with over a 20% lead. Obama's campaign at that point called it that anything within 10% is a victory. Just wait. Wait and see. so far this is a nonevent.

Of course they'd vote for McCain. A good chunk of Clinton's support comes from Limbaugh ditto-heads looking to make mess of the Dem primary. Ya think the ditto heads would vote for Obama or Hillary in the general?

If Hillary is running strong with Reagan Democrats, i.e., registered Democrats who have been voting Republican, there's no guarantee they won't vote for McCain anyway. The DLC strategy has been to win back those OLD and I mean they are really OLD voters. Obama has been bringing in different voters. Hard to say who defects in the fall, but I would be surprised if a super negative Clinton/McCain race excites young people and if I have to listen to two neocons competing for months on how many nations they can turn into green glass at 3 am, I guarantee you will find me hiding under the covers on election day.

Considering Hillary needed to win PA (and Ohio and Texas) by 20 points, she is well and truly fucked. The media may be willing to play by her rules but she's out of cash and almost out of pledged delegated to win. As Chuck Todd said, the race for pledged delegates is over.

Zell, hoping for anything from the egregiously misnamed 'gotalife' other than desperate Clinton spin is a waste of time.
~

A good chunk of Clinton's support comes from Limbaugh ditto-heads looking to make mess of the Dem primary.

And a good chunk are longtime Democrats who have been convinced that Obama is an elitist Muslim Black Panther. These numbers point to one thing only: Hillary's scorched earth campaign.

OMG, Chris Matthews, is on something tonight...this dude is craby, and obviously irked...

Hillary is in full clap, clap, point, point mode :D

First it was "Yes She Can", now its "Yes We Will".

the imitations of Change.

hilarious.

Less than 10%. Yawn. This is over. Obama is the nominee.

"Nonetheless, this is inarguably a pretty grim starting point for either Dem in a state that will be so crucial to Dem hopes of retaking the White House this fall."

Yep, thanks to that asshole Hillary for her slash and burn strategy. She can't win but she wants to sabotage.

To paraphrase what Hillary just said, 'Its time to stop talking about our problems and starting solving them and that's what my campaign has been all about.'

Excuse me but her campaign has done nothing but create problems and made existing problems worse.

Thank you.

Obama will gain more delegates on May 6th then she does tonight.

HRC doesn't seem too happy. Maybe she's just tired but she's sort of walking through her speech. I don't think she's delusional. She knows she needed more than 10% to turn this thing. Terry McA can say this was a romp as much as he wants but it just wasn't. It wasn't what she needed.

This is crap, I'm tired of these stupid polls, they are meaningless.

All they say is she needs to quit being bitter and quit demonizing Obama amongst her supporters.

Exactly. Hillary supporters will say this because, for one thing, she's not so different from McCain... and because it's one more way to help her bully her way into the White House. Vote for Hillary -- or else!

I just hope Obama gets back on message and starts campaigning for himself and against McCain. Ignore the sh*t-slinging from the Hillary camp, and let her be the cause of her own demise.

The only thing which could get me to vote for McCain is if the "Super Delegates" overrode the will of the Democratic majority and installed Clinton as their choice as the Democratic presidential nominee. That would tell me that the "Super Delegates" are not concerned with democracy, only with getting another Clinton in the White House.

TPM love to put Chris Matthews' quotes, why not this one that speaks the truth: ""This contest is essentially over," he proclaims to Keith. "Barack Obama is going to win the most elected delegates."

He went on to say of the media, "Trying to keep this game going, we've created the delusion that somehow this race is still open.""

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/04/22/chris-matthews-the-media_n_98086.html

There's another factor at work here though it is difficult to quantify: crossover voting. I read recently that something like 10% of the people voting for Democrats today were Republicans who for one reason or another switched their party affiliation in order to do so (yes, it was another poll someone did...)

Surely some of these are disaffected Republicans, but I don't think there's any denying that many of these crossover voters are simply trying to throw the race to Hillary because in their view, she will be easier to beat due to her higher negatives. They are never going to vote for either one in the general.

Even if this is only 2-3% of the voting, it serves their purpose to monkey-wrench the Democratic nomination process as it stands now. If Clinton's margin were 5% margin instead of 8% it would be less supportive of her 'comeback' claims, given polling trends.

For example, see http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/03/21/rush-limbaughs-involveme_n_92722.html?page=7.

I don't know of any similarly 'coordinated' effort by crossover voters to inflate Obama's numbers.

So...just another reason to pay no attention to this particular poll.

First, these poll numbers are largely meaningless since they were taken in the middle of a heated, "bitter" primary.

Second, a significant portion of Hillary's support comes from "Reagan Democrats"--i.e., Neo-Dixiecrats. That group's lack of enthusiasm for Obama isn't exactly surprising.

You people call yourself Democrats? I'd sooner cut off my arm than vote for Grandpa Simpson.
If McCain wins neocons win... it's unbearable.

While I would like to believe that Hillary supporters will come around in the Fall and support Obama, I think there are substantial indicators that that is simply wishful thinking. A tremendous block of Hillary's support comes from "Reagan Democrats" and right leaning independents, not to mention conservative older white voters. I highly doubt a group like that is going to break for the liberal black candidate. I expect 70-80% of Hillary's support will break for Obama, the rest will merrily back the old rich white guy...no sense breaking tradition...and march off the cliff, potentially taking the rest of us with them.

It is really the tone of the Obama campaign that is to blame. When you post fundraisers on your Obama for President website that consist of watching Obama supporters cheering madly while an Obama media shill screams that Hillary is a F*cking Wh*re you kind of lose the respect of the other candidates supporters. Funny thing about that.

It is really the tone of the Obama campaign that is to blame. When you post fundraisers on your Obama for President website that consist of watching Obama supporters cheering madly while an Obama media shill screams that Hillary is a F*cking Wh*re you kind of lose the respect of the other candidates supporters. Funny thing about that.

Yeah, I am one of those Hillary supporters who will not vote for Obama over McCain. Part of it has to do with my belief that experience of any kind is better than NO experience. But a significant reason why me and many of my acquaintances won't vote for Obama is because of the extreme obnoxious rhetoric of Obama supporters. Their strident, insulting screeching and bullying has turned me off the Democratic Party.
I mean, look at this site. The sort of screaming filth that gets blogged here is an insult to any decent human being on this planet. It would require me to crush any vestige of humanity in myself to vote with these people. Not in this lifetime.

So, despite being called divisive throughout the campaign, maybe Hillary isn't as divisive as Obama. I certainly grew to dislike him intensely over the course of the campaign. Apparently a lot of Pennsylvanians feel the same way.

This has nothing to do with Obama's divisiveness, and everything to do with antiquated sensibilities, to put it nicely. While there are plenty of people who might pick Clinton over Obama for a variety of reasons, the cross-section of Democrats that is so anti-Obama that they won't be able to vote for him (even after a few months to cool down) are the old, pre-civil rights crowd. Check out the NYT article posted on TPM today about how age is the most reliable predictor in the Clinton/Obama contest, containing the following quote, among other choice tidbits:

John Peterman, 85, a former Navy engineer, said he supported Mrs. Clinton because “the world is not ready for a black president.” His wife, Mary, 81, agreed with him.

Please don't misunderstand me to mean that only racists vote for Hillary. I just find it hard to imagine any Democrat among the "vote for her because she has more experience" or even "vote for her because she is a woman" crowd actually being so closed-minded as to sabotage Obama in the general.

Like it or not, we have no shortage of evidence that backward racial and cultural attitudes are present in today's Democratic party. Even in those voters for which racism alone does not disuade their vote, it can easily open the door for the nonsensical muslim and patriotism smears to be taken seriously.

well, I finally watched the phil.i.am Obama video. But I didn't come in my pants. Nothin'. Nada. Zilch. Not even a stirring of an erection, not even a little squirt : (

Given how Clinton has already thrown *me* to the lions (because I am not one of the elite who lives in an "important" state like California or Pennsylvania), I am perfectly content to let her rot on the vine in the general if it comes to that. And if you are still laboring under the illusion that she is somehow more 'vetted' than Obama for the general, boy, are you in for a shock.

Somehow, I should have guessed that Hillary Clinton would find a way to sink the hopes of the Democratic Party. It's so sad, because this election should have been a total and complete gimme for the Dems. But her vanity and her belief in her divine right to power is ruining the country, and will give us President McSame and the disaster to follow. Well done, Hills.

To think I used to defend the Clintons. Sigh.

Obama would NEVER get my vote.

Why? He isn't what you people think he is, he doesn't have presidential credentials.

He doesn't inspire ME. I see through all that nonsense because I have kept my head and look beyond the speeches... unlike you Obamamites.

If you really knew how little this guy knows and how inexperienced he is and how that fact could really get this country in deeper doo doo than it already is, you'd be abandoning him like rats off a sinking ship.

If Hillary does not win nomination, McCain will get my vote.

Rae

Heck, he thinks he's so great, he couldn't even finish out ONE (1) term in the Senate. He's much too big for his britches! Arrogant SOB oops I meant sNob.

Rae