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Dean: Super-Delegates Don't Have To Follow The Voters

In an endorsement of the Clinton campaign's position on super-delegates, Howard Dean affirmed that supers do not have to follow either the pledged delegates or the aggregate popular vote in making their decisions.

"They should use whatever yardstick they want," Dean said. "That's what the rules provide for."

The Clinton campaign will in all likelihood have to rely on supers to get the nomination, with Barack Obama widely expected to get a majority of pledged delegates — and they'll need to have people reminded that the rules provide for this in order to maintain their legitimacy.


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Super-delegates may be free to overturn the verdict of the voters, but they do know what the consequences of that will be in November. And that should be the one and only guide - as well as the future of the party. Think they want to see just how many new dems they can turn away over a period of a few weeks, and harm the party for years to come? Note that Sen. Clinton STARTED the race with about 100 "super" delegates in her pocket. (McAuliffe stated, in the plane from IA to NH, "let's not forget who's getting the nomination - we have the super-delegates" - seriously - from DAY ONE!). And now Sen. Obama has a slight lead among currently elected officials - Sen. Clinton's entire lead is made up of DNC members. Loyalty should be to the party and the issues it stand for, not to the Clintons, no matter what they promise (you know what we can do for our friends) or threaten with (political suicide, off the president's list, etc etc....). Enough already - please stop the madness! (I am convinced the Clintons would rather see a McCain win, leaving them at thee top of the dem. pecking order, than see Sen. Obama in office - total shake-up of party power base, gone are the chances for HRC, and Bill is worried he will be eclipsed by a "real" transformational democrat.

"In an endorsement of the Clinton campaign's position on super-delegates" -- um, no-- in a confirmation of the technicalities of the DNC rules that he is charged with enforcing.

The *political* reality (as Dean well knows, and the media and bloggers should point out) is that as electeds and political animals (though, it must be said, fearful ones it appears) supers are very, very, very unlikely to overturn the leader in pledged delegates. Dean, Pelosi et al. IMO in making these statements that affirm the technical fact that supers are free to use their judgment are being careful to avoid giving Clinton's camp a hook on which to hang their "those mean party leaders are ganging up on poor Hillary" schtick.

Spot on. I was thinking exactly the same thing. Nothing Dean said here can be construed as an "endorsement" of anything. He's simply saying that the rule say that the supers can vote any way they want. Kleefeld needs to pull up his journalistic pants.

I had the same take. I think this could just as easily be read as a "response" to Bill's invective against/around the CA superdelegates this weekend. In other words, just because the "big states" went for Hillary, that doesn't mean all of their superdelegates have to. And just because NM (narrowly) went for Hillary, that doesn't make Bill Richardson a "judas."

This is not a pro-Hillary statement. It's a pro-superdelegates-doing-what's-best-for-party-unity statement.

"just because the "big states" went for Hillary, that doesn't mean all of their superdelegates have to."

Check out Donna Brazille & others on this - (pretty depressing reading for Obama supporters)

On the face of it, it seems as though they've actually bought the specious Clinton camp argument that primary elections are valid indicators of general election success.viz:

`Much more pertinent to a candidate's resume, as Brazille and others noted, would be the ability of the candidate to "make a good president, but also beat [Sen. John] McCain." And on this count, Clinton may in fact have a stronger case to make. As pointed out by more than one superdelegate, Clinton has triumphed in many of the traditional swing states on the electoral map, a potentially persuasive fact for those trying to map out a path to November success.

"What if you have it down to 100 delegates?" Nathan Smith, superdelegate and Kentucky Democratic Party vice chairman, asked. "Does the popular vote then have an effect? Sure it does. But I look at it in terms of states. Who is winning the states we need this fall. That has the most effect on me... Who is going to make the case to me that they are going to be the strongest candidate this fall? I want to see the grid. I want to see what states you can carry."

Another uncommitted superdelegate from the northwest who asked not to be identified iterated much the same argument.

"The popular vote, if you are talking nationwide, in my mind is maybe a factor," he said. "But none of these are black and white. I'm developing a formula where I give weight to certain pieces of the pie. I would give greater weight to the outcome of my state's primary then the national vote. After that electability plays into it.... Between the primary and convention floor something happens where it appears he can't be elected that would change my vote."

(From Sam Stein in The Huffington Post -
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/04/02/clintons-push-for-popula_n_94563.html


As pointed out by more than one superdelegate, Clinton has triumphed in many of the traditional swing states on the electoral map,

That's a deceptive argument. "Triumphing" in swing-states against other Democratic candidates is apples and oranges when compared to against the republican opposition.

Reminds me of an LSAT question: True or false: if all bleegs are blorgs and all blergs are blorgs then all bleegs are definitely blergs.

(btw the answer is "false" )

Though I am committed to Obama, I hope I'm not being over-sensitive to note that the last paragraph above reads like a Clinton press release. Would it not be more proper to use the conditional, instead of stating the events as something that WILL happen? And is it not wildly understating facts to say that Obama is "widely expected" to exceed Clinton in pledged delegates? Thus:

"The Clinton campaign WOULD in all likelihood have to rely on supers to get the nomination, with Barack Obama MATHEMATICALLY CERTAIN to get a majority of pledged delegates — and they WOULD need to have people reminded that the rules provide for this in order to maintain their legitimacy."

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He's not "mathematically certain" to get the pledged delegate lead, just very, very likely. Hillary would need to win by an average of 60% in each remaining state in order to pull that out :P

And how is it even in the realm of possibility that that will happen?

THERE ARE PRIMARIES YET TO BE HELD.

"Hillary would need to win by an average of 60% in each remaining state in order to pull that out :P"

Actually it's tougher than that. She has to win by that margin in every district of the remaining states.

what in the world is mathematically certain about the outcome of the remaining primaries?? sheesh.

(disregard that ALL CAPS post, it didn't thread where i though i was putting it.)

This is just stating the obvious.

Yeah, that was my reaction also. I don't think it should be read as a confirmation of Hillary's slash and burn strategy.

However, this is not an endorsement of Clinton's position on elected delegates.

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How about the yardstick of the tallest candidate? That's a very simple metric. And indisputable.

So that's why Clinton is trying to cut Obama down to size?

OR

Well cut my legs and call me shorty.

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There you go! ♪♪♪

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Career politicans and party fanatics get to vote with yardsticks? Hopefully pledged delegates will come armed for a knife or a gun fight.

Viva la people!

How does this possibly endorse Clinton's position. Dean says use whatever yardstick you want. Clinton says the "yardstick" should be big states that voted for her, or the fact the the GOP will tear apart a candidate with a scary black minister. Obama says the "yardstick" should be the leader in delegates and popular vote. Dean isn't saying which yardstick is right. He's stating the obvious point that supers are free to choose.

Not sure how this helps Hillary. Why does this article read like a Hillary presser?

"In an endorsement of the Clinton campaign's position on super-delegates"

Really Eric ? We know that you are a proud HRC shill but do you have to your breasts about it ?

Dean was endorsing the party rules, not Hillary.

Get a grip man. We know your girl is losing "it" and do you ahve to too ?

All the big wigs are giving Hillary lots of space. After dominating the weekend talk shows, Pelosi, Dean, Reid have stopped arguing about super delegates, when to get out of the election, how to unify the party, etc. Maybe they've been scared by the political blowback they've caused and are trying to backpeddle for some damage control. Or, do they sense that Hillary's end is imminent (this steady stream of endorsements) and they want to take the high road as she leaves the race?

Seeing as Obama leads in every metric except whiteness, this isn't worrisome to his camp.

And you NEVER hear it, but the guy is as white as not.

Rules won't matter, voters, especially the young, will be bitter and rightly so, millions of voters will be lost to belief that elections are about the people.

Dean has always said his goal is to ensure that the supporters of whoever loses this race feel as though they were treated fairly.

All this quotation does is further that end. It's obvious but important for Dean to say ... for the perception of a fair process to all parties. It doesn't change the fact that supers are politicians and understand the implications of overturning the voter's choice.

Funny how Team Hillary demands that certain rules be followed but other rules can be layed by the side of the road because they are too inconvinent to be followed.
Just keep on stating the rules Howard!

everything on obamatalkingpointsmemo.com sounds like an obama press release.

go hillary!

now cue the trolls.

"The Clinton campaign will in all likelihood have to rely on supers to get the nomination," -- as will the Obama campaign. It has been clear for some time now that neither candidate will win enough pledged delegates to gain the nomination. Both candidates have been jockeying for superdelegates all along. However Obama has been pushing the idea that the superdelegates should reflect the popular vote. Later he pushed the idea that they should reflect the pledged delegates. Pelosi said the same thing, and specifically said that even if a candidate won the popular vote, the superdelegates should go to the candidate with the most pledged delegates. Of course both Pelosi and Obama want Obama to win. But both Obama and Pelosi were wrong. I'm glad John Dean has once again set the record strait and reminded everyone of the rules which state that the superdelegates are free to choose whomever they want. That is why superdelegates were created in the first place.

Why on earth does John Dean have any say in this?

What Hillary Rambo Clinton, The Heroine of Tuzla, is urging the Super Delegates to do, is to overthrow the majority of elected delegates. The Clintons are calling for a Coup to install Hillary. Think about the irony in that. It is called The Democratic Party, but Hillary wants to be installed as it's leader by means of Coup.

I'm an Obama supporter.

I don't have any problem with the SD's voting according to their "best judgement" or their conscience. I'm confident they will make the best decision when the time comes.

What I find amusing/disturbing is how Clinton supporters automatically assume that SD's will vote for Clinton based on their "judgement". I think that SD's will look at the state of the race at the end of the primaries and make a decision - and I'm confident that decision will be for Obama.

Why? Let's remember there are two kinds of SD's - elected officials and party officials.

Elected officials will go for Obama because they want coattails. They don't want to be perceived as "going against the voters". And they have already seen how Obama's grass roots organizing can help them on the ground - See Bill Foster in Illinois (Denny Hastert's seat) and Donna Edwards in MD (beating out incumbent Al Wynn) - so they will look at that as helping them in November. (not to mention the recent press about the Clinton supporter who would be "stunned" if Obama isn't the nominee and the next president)

Party officials will go for Obama because they want to build the party for the long term. This means young people. Think of the incredible energy that college students and even some high schoolers (like Casey Knowles) are showing on behalf of Obama. Think of the high turnout, the voter registration drives, the party switching going on. This are the metrics that the party looks at.

I've never had a problem with the super delegates. After all, they will make their decision based on self interest. And, I think they will see that their interests are best served by Obama as the nominee.

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Um, yes, they will make their decision based upon self interest, but for some, that self interest may reflect that they have already hung themselves on the Clinton money/power connection tree.

I agree DonnaG.

What Obama supporters need to do is to start finding out who the SD's are that gave Hillary their pledge at the START of the primaries.

Those are the people who are hardcore partyline and who in all likelihood were appointed by Bill Clinton.

It is this core group which needs to be target. Individuals who want Obama to get those SD's votes need to identify and start a campaign the ANTI-Icke campaign to persuade those SD's to support Obama.

Clinton will win the popular vote to win the nomination and will crush McCain in the general.

Deal with it trolls.

It is better for Obama to lose in the general then for the Democratic Party to lose a generation of voters.

Of course, Obama won't lose the general, so the point is moot.

;)


Another reading: Put this in the context of the shifting narrative of the last couple days. Clinton is starting to suggest now that SDs moving to Obama are "trying to shut down the election," "silence the voice of the people."

Conventional wisdom says these comments by Dean support Clinton's endgame, but if more and more SDs keep moving to Obama and Clinton keeps trying to paint those endorsements as the party insiders trying to force her out, this statement by Dean sets up more clearly the contradiction in her position. It could pre-empt Clinton's apparent plans to attack the motives of the SDs who are backing Obama.

If you follow the links to the LA Times article that is the source, you'll find support for bdh's analyis:

Dean expressed confidence that the nomination would be settled well before the party convention opens Aug. 25, saying the only way Democrats could fail to win the White House in November "is if we can't heal this party."

"The unpledged delegates . . . got their status because they were leaders of the party," Dean said. "They have an obligation to lead, and that obligation means letting people know who you're for well before the convention."


This is exactly how I read Dean's and Pelosi's latest statements.

The party is already reaching out to the inevitable: disappointed Hillary supporters who will need to support Obama in November.

Eric, I hate to pile on, but Ruth in OR and DirkVA are right:

First, Dean is simply stating the rules, not making an "endorsement" of Clinton's "position". The implication that Dean is somehow on board with her position (which is, simply put, that the supers should vote for her - that they *can* vote for her, if they want to, is a given, just like they can vote for anyone, even, say, Mike Gravel) is pure spin.

Second, like Dirk, I take issue with your choice of "will" - I read that paragraph three or four times trying to figure out if you were being sloppy or if you are living in an alternate reality. You're a professional writer so I discounted the possiblitiy that you don't know the difference between "will" and "would".

A little critical distance would be much appreciated. Thanks.

Dean's just trying not to piss off the Hillary people by seeming to prejudge it, while he, Reid, and Pelosi push SD's toward decisions. If he announces the decisionrule is pledged and then pushes hard for a decision, then we alienate more of our base. We all know Obama's getting it, barring nearly impossible events. Every time the meme of leaders pushing HRC hits the media, she gets energized. They're just trying to do this more quietly, which is smart.

There's nothing here to react negatively to.

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No one, I repeat no one has argued that they cannot. What has been argued is that they should not.

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Speaking of SD balls, check out Richardson's riposte to Carville from yesterday's Washington Post. Excellent.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/04/01/AR2008040100885_pf.html

I should clarify. Clinton hasn't been specifically tying recent Obama SD pickups to her comments about "Obama's supporters" wanting to "end this." I realize now my post suggests that.

I just think that's the direction her strategy is headed. If SDs are for Clinton, it's because she's more electable and the better candidate. If they're for Obama, it's all part of the great left-wing conpiracy (?!) to force her out. As with so many other things this election, she's trying to have it both ways.

So, Dean's statements could also be seen as creating some space for Clinton's own logic to work against her, if that's how it plays out.

Superdelegates should vote however working class abuelitas in big primary states vote. That should be the rule, starting today. I'M IN TO WIN IT, MUTHAF***AS!

ohh please give it a rest with the threats that millions of new voters will turn away ...ohh well they didn't vote before anyway and democracy survived. it's their choice. we survived the election being given to geaorge bush in 2000 as well as the voting machines being tampered with we will survive the kiddies disappointment in OBAMA losing. if blacks allow the hispanic vote to marginalize their importance infutute elections well...their problem.

Wow...you really don't get it do you?? Hundreds of thousands of people are going to descend on Denver if Hillary uses the supers to get her way. And yes, millions of new voters will turn away. It will be ugly and McCain skates in to the Whitehouse. Yes, we will survive - whatever that means. But it's not anything I would ever advocate for my country. This is a movement - not just some little game people are playing.

Another Super Delegate goes into the Obama column:

Wed Apr 2, 8:50 AM ET

PHILADELPHIA (Reuters) - Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama on Wednesday won the endorsement of Lee Hamilton, a former Indiana congressman who is a leading U.S. authority on foreign relations and national security.
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The support of Hamilton, who co-chaired two blue-ribbon commissions that investigated the September 11 attacks and advised President George W. Bush on the war in Iraq, could boost the Illinois senator in his May 6 Indiana primary contest against New York Sen. Hillary Clinton.

Hamilton said Obama offers American voters the best chance to create a new sense of national unity and transcend division.

"He champions the politics of consensus, not of partisan division," the longtime Democratic Party figure said in a statement. "He is driven by the search for the common good."

Hamilton, also backed Obama on foreign relations, an area where the White House hopeful has been criticized for inexperience.

"His foreign policy is pragmatic, visionary and tough," said Hamilton, former Democratic chairman of the U.S. House of Representatives committees on foreign affairs and intelligence.

"He will work with our friends and allies. He will strengthen our ability to use all tools of American power and relentlessly promote the American values of freedom and justice for all people."

It was the latest key Democratic endorsement for Obama in his race against Clinton for the Democratic Party's presidential nomination. The two face hard-fought primary election battles in both Indiana and Pennsylvania in the next several weeks.

Obama also has picked up other endorsements recently from New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson and Pennsylvania Sen. Bob Casey.

Hamilton represented Indiana in the House from 1965 through 1999. He now is president and director of the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars

Great post Jocelyn;
If you have the time I recommedn that you expand it a little and write a "blog" here so that more people will see it.

Job well done.
Go Obama 2008!

(BTW-I am a middle aged attorney, not a young supporter)

I am thinking about it - maybe when I get home from work.

Wyoming Gov. Dave Freudenthal is endorsing Obama:


http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080402/ap_on_el_pr/obama_endorsement

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ohh please give it a rest with the threats that millions of new voters will turn away ...ohh well they didn't vote before anyway and democracy survived

O really? So the last 8 years and 4000 dead Americans and the constitution in tatters is no big deal. The speech Al Gore gave in '05, where he said basically - we've been here before, we've always pulled out of it before, but this time I'm not so sure..." meant nothing?

The fascist takeover of our government meant nothing? O no big deal we survived - while becoming the world's major torturer? No big deal? New Orleans - 2000 people drowned in their homes NO BIG DEAL?

You really think we can survive just on the old coalition? How do you figure that when all we do is lose? Look at the statistics.


Good for you, Tena!

The SDs probably know Obama can't win genereal election.

Hillary will get Fla. & Michigan - if delegates are seated and she'll have popular vote and she wins.

Just so you know ReaK, and won't be disappointed later:

They can seat the DELEGATES from FL and MI, and Obama still wins.

I don't think any Superdelegate will vote for Hillary based on the "popular vote" of two beauty contests.

Much less the 75% of Supers that need to go to Hillary in order for her to win.

But, good luck to you and Hillary. You guys need it.

The last paragraph should be re-written. It's a bit scary coming from TPM.

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Politicians "using whatever yardstick they want" is absolutely Fxxxx up. That is why we are in such a mess in so many ways to begin with.

With each passing day virtually everything that comes out of our nations capitol looks dumber and dumber.

George Bush, our very favorite village idiot, has a lot of company.

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