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CBS/NYT Poll: Obama Still Leads Hillary, But Doesn't Do As Well Against McCain
The latest CBS/New York Times poll has some good news and some bad news for Barack Obama. The good news is that despite the recent headaches of his Pennsylvania loss and the reemergence of Jeremiah Wright, he's actually leading Hillary Clinton by a little more than he was four weeks ago:
Obama 46% (+0)
Clinton 38% (-5)
On the other hand, he now doesn't do as well against John McCain as Clinton does:
Obama (D) 45%, McCain (R) 45%
Clinton (D) 48%, McCain (R) 43%
Another danger sign for Obama: In the last poll his personal rating was 43% favorable to only 24% unfavorable. Now it's 39% favorable and 34% unfavorable, a ten-point increase in his negatives. On the other hand, this is still better than Hillary's 36%-42% rating, and McCain's 33%-34% rating.
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Another Eric post with an obvious Clinton slant. You really should be ashamed of yourself for your lack of journalistic impartiality. Greg, to his credit, has kept to it when we've pressed him to do so.
April 30, 2008 7:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
Tell you what, Erik - let Hillary and the independents hold their election then, on Alice's unbirthday.
How can you think that she has one hope in hell? Seriously.
April 30, 2008 7:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oh, and this one?
From NBC News/WSJ poll:
Obama 46, Clinton 43.
Obama is at 46%, McCain 43%;
Clinton 45%, McCain 44%
April 30, 2008 7:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
No the supers will really start falling off the Obama bandwagon now!
LOL.
April 30, 2008 7:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well Indiana isn't going to shore the SD's up for Barack.
If Wright hasn't pushed her over the top, then Rush Limbaugh certainly will.
http://www.howeypolitics.com/2008/04/29/howey-gauge-poll-clinton-obama-tossup-jlt-forges-big-lead/
It's extraordinary the way in which the media's ignoring his impact: Rush Limbaugh is turning this election into banana republic stuff!
May 1, 2008 4:30 AM | Reply | Permalink
Another way this could have been headlined:
"After another month of campaigning and a win in Pennsylvania, Hillary Clinton loses ground."
April 30, 2008 7:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
I post this again. Zogby today. With Nader and Barr
Obama 45, McCain 42, Barr 3, Nader 1
McCain 44, Clinton 34, Barr 4, Nader 3
April 30, 2008 7:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
neck lady
you move around fast
didn't i have you on a test?
please get a shave and a shower
thanks
April 30, 2008 7:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
Pretty juvenile man.
April 30, 2008 9:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
Damn it!
How the hell are the superdels going to overturn the pledge delegate count with numbers like these?
How will gotnolife survive reality smacking upside it's face?
2+2=4.
April 30, 2008 7:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sheesh. The real story here is that Clinton is cratering. Her only chance is to convince the SDs to overturn the pledged delegates and risk alienating huge segments of the base. Numbers like this aren't going to help her "make her case."
April 30, 2008 7:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
Remarkable! Obama's resiliency under the worst conditions!
April 30, 2008 7:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
Exactly what I was thinking. He's being swiftboated constantly on cable news and all the other media, and we're still in there.
April 30, 2008 8:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
(CBS) Barack Obama leads Hillary Clinton by eight points among Democratic primary voters nationwide, according to a new CBS News/New York Times poll. But fewer expect Obama to be the Democratic nominee than did one month ago, and fewer see him as the Democrat with the best chance of beating presumptive GOP nominee John McCain in November.
Obama leads Clinton 46 percent to 38 percent among Democrats who have either already voted in a primary contest or still plan to, with 14 percent saying they are undecided or don't know whom they support. The eight-point margin marks an increase from April 3rd, when Obama led Clinton by three points.
But a smaller percentage of Democratic primary voters now see Obama, who has been on the defensive following revelations of his controversial former pastor's statements and his leaked comments that some voters had become "bitter," as their party's likely nominee. Fifty-one percent now say they expect Obama to win the nomination, down from 69 percent on April 3rd, while thirty-four percent now expect Clinton to be the nominee, up from 21 percent a month ago.
And while Obama continues to have an advantage over Clinton when it comes to which candidate is seen as more electable, the gap has narrowed there as well. Today, 48 percent of Democratic primary voters think Obama has the best chance of defeating McCain in November, down 8 points from a month ago. Thirty-seven percent say Clinton is more likely to beat McCain.
Complete CBS News Polls:
The General Election
The Democratic Race
General Election Battle:
In a head-to-head match-up with McCain, Clinton fared better than her rival: The New York senator led McCain 48 percent to 43 percent among all registered voters, while Obama and McCain were tied at 45 percent.
Four weeks ago, Obama held a five point lead over McCain. Since then, Obama has lost support among women, particularly white women, while Clinton has maintained her five-point edge.
McCain leads Obama 47 percent to 44 percent among all female registered voters. That marks a 16 point swing from a month ago, when Obama led McCain 51 percent to 38 percent among the group. Among white women, McCain has extended his edge over Obama from four points to seventeen. He leads Obama 55 percent to 38 percent among the group.
Women favor Clinton over McCain 53 percent to 40 percent.
Obama's unfavorable rating has risen over the past month. On April 3rd, he was viewed favorably by 43 percent of registered voters and unfavorably by 24 percent. Now he is viewed favorably by 39 percent and unfavorably by 34 percent - a ten point increase in unfavorable rating.
Fifty percent of Clinton supporters say they would be dissatisfied if Obama becomes the party's nominee. Fewer Obama backers would be unhappy if Clinton got the nod, with 35 percent saying they would be dissatisfied.
Thirty-five percent of Clinton voters say they would vote for McCain in the fall if Obama is the Democratic nominee. Twenty-three percent of Obama supporters say they would crossover if Clinton heads the ticket.
More than two in three Democratic primary voters say their nominee will not be clear until the party's convention in late August. Forty-three percent say that if the nomination race continues through the summer it will hurt the eventual nominee’s chances in the general election.
April 30, 2008 7:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
Man oh man, Obama is getting stronger and stronger!!! I has been a week or two from HELL for him, and he leads both Clinton and McCain! In Both polls, CBS and NBC's!!!
Obama is extremely strong folks, he is going to destroy McSame in November!
April 30, 2008 7:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
Feels good doesn't it? All those smug Clinton supporters have got to be getting frustrated. Bad karma but I do want to see them squirm.
April 30, 2008 9:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well there goes Hillary's argument about how she can beat McCain. One third of her support in the Primaries is coming from McCain supporters who are trying to weaken Obama. Hillary would lose most of those voters to McCain in a general election. McCain would beat Hillary in a landslide, and the Clintons would destroy the Democrats in Congress again.
It Takes A Clinton To Raze Our Party.
They did it once, and they want to do it again.
April 30, 2008 7:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
Great slogan!
May 1, 2008 8:39 AM | Reply | Permalink
THe number against McCain will improve as he goes head to head against him. Unreal that Barack is doing this well - after getting hammered daily for weeks by two other candidates!! Amazing!!!
April 30, 2008 8:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
One has to wonder how much better Obama's approval ratings would be if the media (including bloggers) would focus on real issues. Instead, it's all Wright/Ayers/Flag pins all the time. I agree that it's amazing that Obama's performing so well with the media onslaught that's been underway against him since the end of February.
April 30, 2008 9:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
Exactly. At least we don't have to ever hear that the media is soft on Obama again.
I still can't believe that Russert, in one of his earliest interviews with Obama, asked him about what Sidney Pointier had said -- when he of course never asked any white candidates the same thing. I think the media is going to look back on this time in shame.
Oh wait, I'm assuming they "look back" and "have shame".
April 30, 2008 9:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
Maybe their own polling will give them a clue. They might take the message that people don't give a good gdamerica about Reverend Wright anymore, and start covering something like, I don't know, gas prices? That's always pretty popular heading into the summer months. Oh, and shark attacks coverage usually ramps up in my part of the country (S.East Atlantic). I can't believe I'm saying this, but I could really do with some good, solid shark attacks reporting right about now.
May 1, 2008 12:47 AM | Reply | Permalink
And on Intrade, Hillary's numbers are worse than Bush's very low approval rating.
April 30, 2008 9:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
http://www.biz.uiowa.edu/iem/
May 1, 2008 1:46 AM | Reply | Permalink
These polls must drive Clinton and her tribe nuts. All those hours and bad food. All the crap they've thrown at Obama and nothing.
April 30, 2008 9:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
Eric, I loved the way you hammocked Hillary's numbers in there between Obama's and McCain's. The first and the last in a series always are the most prominent. Why didn't you just put them in real tiny font while you were at it?
April 30, 2008 10:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama's lead over Hillary grows from 3 points to 8, and the Times Web site manages to hang this headline on the story: Loss and Ex-Pastor Hurt Obama in Poll.
Talk about cherry-picking facts to fit a narrative. For days, people have been hearing talking heads say the PA loss and Wright are hurting Obama. So they THINK the race has gotten tighter; that's all the Times poll shows. But this media-driven PERCEPTION that the race has gotten tighter is enough for the Times to say that the PA loss and Wright have hurt Obama -- even though Obama has actually gained ground.
April 30, 2008 11:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
Actually, with a +/- 3% sampling error, I believe he does exactly the same well against John McCain as Clinton does...
April 30, 2008 11:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Or with +/- 3% it could be:
Obama 42 McCain 48
Clinton 51 McCain 40
That sounds about right. Yup.
May 1, 2008 12:05 AM | Reply | Permalink
shark attack
May 1, 2008 12:49 AM | Reply | Permalink
Obama: takes a lickin' and keeps on tickin'.
April 30, 2008 11:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
dear talking points,
1 swiftboat michele not proud swiftboat
2 swiftboat farrakhan
3 swiftboat goolsbee
4 swiftboat plagiarist
5 swiftboat wright
6 swiftboat typical white woman
7 swiftboat bowling
8 swiftboat orange juice
9 swiftboat bitter
10 swiftboat weatherman
11 swiftboat flag pin
12 swiftboat 9.2 double digit
13 swiftboat wright2
breaking news...from msm...obama's negatives are up. hillary has made a comeback.
May 1, 2008 12:58 AM | Reply | Permalink
Put the polls in the context of this info:
GOP GIVES CLINTON THE SILENT TREATMENT
http://news.yahoo.com/s/politico/20080430/pl_politico/9964
May 1, 2008 1:34 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yup. She's out of it.
May 1, 2008 1:41 AM | Reply | Permalink
Gee, I can't imagine why. Who's he running against again? The Clintons, McCain, the RNC, the NRCC, Republican AND Democratic 527's? Maybe that has something to do with it. Ya think?
May 1, 2008 1:41 AM | Reply | Permalink
Maybe because the rhetoric of his "new politics" has not matched the reality of his campaign's negative tone. Maybe because he gives speeches about bridging racial divides and then his campaign plays upon them for political gain. Maybe because people eventually get tired of just speeched and start to judge a candidate by his actions (or lack thereof). Maybe because when you play a defensive campaign (trying to run out the clock and claim victory because you are currently ahead mathmatically), your campaign loses sight of inspiration and the importance of reaching out to voters who are not already on your side (it's so much more important to have Obamabot rallies than to have a substantive unmoderated debate on the issues with questions from real voters on economy, health plans etc.)
Face it your candidate has lost his mojo and is in danger of losing the primary nomination. The voters are already sensing he's lost his inevitability even though the MEDIA tells them day after day that Hillary has no chance. I already believe he has no shot at the general, but hopefully he won't get there because I want to see a Democrat in the White House.
Not like I want to be giving advice to the opponent, BUT if I were him I would take EVERY opportunity to turn the focus back on real issues - including a debate. I would be much more specific, even Hillary-ish in my speeches laying my economic plans out in specifics rather than just generalities and check out my website (which might I add is still far less spelled out than Hillary's).
But my prediction is that his campaign will continue to do him a disservice by running a defensive campaign rather than the go-getter campaign that earned him the frontrunner status.
But I am confident that the Obama campaign won't take my advice because they want to play it safe and need give Hillary an opportunity to woo away potential Obama supporters who have an opportunity to listen to both candidates on substantive plans. Either way - debate or no debate helps Hillary - if they do debate, she has the better plans. If they don't he looks like a coward and is unable to turn the page on the Wright issue. That's what I call a win-win for Hillary. Which exactly what I am hooping for in NC & IN - win-win for Hillary :)
May 1, 2008 10:55 AM | Reply | Permalink
It's now time for the media to start telling us daily how "tough and resilient" Obama is.
We've been hearing it for months about Clinton, and she's essentially been ignored by the opposition.
Obama has been smeared for 2 months.
I'll wait for it.
May 1, 2008 7:48 AM | Reply | Permalink