Come on.

No one has done more for Independents than Barack Obama.

Clinton will win the Independents and win the general easily.

Jesus Christ. Is this TPM or The Hillary Hub?

Of course, this could simply be an outlier, since other polls have shown him stronger among indys.

Do they? Funny, I don't remember seeing those polls flogged on the homepage in extralarge type.

Can we stop with the endless conjecture about what will or won't sway the super dels already? It is irrelevant becuase the super dels will never overturn Obama's 100+ pledged delegate lead. It would destroy the party, and they know that.

OMG already. Enough with the misleading and ever changing polls!

I have poll fatigue.
I have primary fatigue.
I have Clinton fatigue.
I have blog fatigue.
I have outrage fatigue.

It's time to get away from it all.

a little under 200 Inds in that poll. that's about a 7-point MOE using the standard calculation.

definitely not headline worthy unless more polls start showing a similar difference.

Go look at pollster.com and look poll by poll, state by state. Obama clearly has the edge to beat McCain on a state by state basis... the aggregate national number does not tell the story. Hillary's negatives are too high and she doesn't have the 50 State organization on the ground to beat McCain, like Obama does.

This is the same poll showing Hillary beating McCain by 9?

Seems a bit odd.

SEVEN articles from TPM on polls today alone???? What the fuck is this shit?

Hey Greg, et al: don't ever complain about the MSM - you're outdoing them by a mile.

He didn't read the fine print: Independent white women over 65 with 10th grade educations who never left philandering husbands who hunt with bows and arrows and favor bowling with square balls.

Obama needs to stand and fight. If he can't fight he will lose. If he has lost his stomach for the fight, he should step aside. This is a nonstop death match until November. He needs to finish off HRC and get on with dismantling McCain.

If he cannot do this, he should think about throwing his support Hillary. Clinbamacans Unite!

Clinton winning amongst Indies? Huh uh. Sure. With approval ratings which rival the chimp's for the race down the shitter. Fighting Bill has it about right concerning those polled.

Another meaningless poll. An outlier at that.

Obama won this race in February and now we are just running out the clock -- painfully so. If he wins North Carolina he win's the nomination. If he wins NC and Indiana, he might have enough superdelegates by the end of May.

The same two questions remain for Hillabee:
1) When, not if, will she concede the nomination to Obama?
2) How low will she go in the meantime?

Should he be more agressive right now? Yes. Does he need to in order to win? No.

HILLMENTUM (R)

blech...

It's clear Obama's vetting is taking a toll. But Hillary is skirting by. She tries to convince us that Bill's vetting means she has no surprise baggage. This is ridiculous. The right wing dug into his life; they went after her only when it hurt him. If people think Obama looks bad for Ayres/Wright, just wait until the GOP unleashes on her. Hillary's numbers right now are artificially inflated because the GOP is doing it's best to tear down Obama and prop her up. If we ever reach a point where Clinton appears to be on the verge of getting the nomination, the right will turn on her with a ferocity and alacrity that will be breathtaking. And then both Democratic candidates will be wounded. The only hope for the party is for Obama to win Indiana, which would turn the media narrative on a dime, and lead to real calls for Hillary to get out. Otherwise, the whole party is screwed.

unfavorable ratings at an all time high....for Hillary.

http://blog.washingtonpost.com/behind-the-numbers/2008/04/unfavorables_on_the_rise_1.html

That and the delegate math would argue against your proposition. But what good are facts, anyway?

Obama's the front-runner and as such is the focus of all of the Republican attacks, not Hillary. She's not being actively vetted at all...yet he's the one winning. Whoops.

I support the Clintons.Period.

She will be the next President.Period.
Posted by gotalife
April 28, 2008 7:05 PM

Gotalife, you ignorant sexist pig! As her husband recently reminded us, Hillary is Sixty years old and forgetful. That means she no longer has a "Period"

Shame on you Gotalife, you ignorant sexist pig; for playing the menstruation card!!!

Obama has older white women too.

This is short, sweet, and VERY refreshing after all the polls, shmolls, and trolls.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/04/28/obama-asks-supporter-will_n_99078.html

This is the same AP whose owner called Obama Osama at their convention? This is the same AP that used to employ John Solomon (currently of the WashTimes), that still employs Nedra Pickler? It's not that I don't believe any good polls for Hillary, for instance I believed all the polls that said she'd win PA.

It's not the poll; it's the source. I didn't believe them when they were artificially propping up Bush's numbers through 2004, 2005, 2006. I just think the failure of the Clinton slime machine to crush the Obama campaign has the Republicans really worried. 24-Hour slime has a half-life in voters minds, and the fact that he will have loads of cash and, as a consequence of the extended primary, millions of newly registered Democratic voters (and a very old opponent) has to give the Rethuglicans heartburn of a most persistent variety.

What if the candidate linked to Obama in MS goes on to win the Special Election, what will that mean? It'll mean the GOP better get a new bag of tricks; that old shit is played out.

This is such a blistering, bruising affair. How does one unite the Dem Party? Obama/Clinton do not share a ticket. I just don't see it, after all that has transpired. Not least of which is her odious strategy of moving towards and pandering to the Right. ClintonInc is counting on Dem voters to have short memories, forget how scurrilous she is, and come around in August. It's a big happy tent, y'all. Join us!

I'm not buying it. Just the thought of the two of them marching triumphantly out onto the stage, holding hands high and smiling and trying to sell that bullshit is too distasteful for words. Kum Ba Ya, my ass. Obama desparately needs a win in Indiana or we are screwed, brothers and sisters, we are screwed.

Jeez.

I go away for the weekend and I come back to find that Taylor Marsh has purchased TPM.

Some of the topics headlined in the past 48 hours would make Terry McAuliffe blush.

I support Obama, but I want to win. If Hillary is more likely to do that, nominate her.

Let's see how these numbers continue to change now that Wright is out there confirming the worst of what everyone has previously said about him. Worse, he's now spouting BS about Blacks needing different standards, possibly even separate schools. There goes 50 years of integration and progress--at the hands of a hate and racist-filled preacher.

It is priceless that even today Wright is again saying that Obama is lying as a politician to distance himself. It won't be enough, but Obama needs to be clear and explicit on what he agrees with and does not agree with and why he spent 20 years with this guy. Wright didn't just adopt these views in the past couple of months. Obama is simply not credible saying he didn't hear or didn't know. He needs to give an explicit apology and not blame everyone else. Wright calls him a liar, now what does Obama say? And, too, what about the Dear Leader's supporters? What do you agree and disagree with from Wright? Do you still defend him?!

Dana Milbank at the post offers good commentary on Wright and Obama at http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalradar/2008/04/obama-on-wright.html.

Matthew
http://www.TheProblemWithObama.com

I left this blog when it became unsafe for Clinton supporters but given today's events, I want to ask you to join us in support of Hillary Rodham Clinton. She can win in November and she will be a fine President. I don't always agree with her but she does her homework and she works harder and is simply tireless.

For months, many of us have been pleading with you telling you that Obama was a train wreck waiting to happen. That train wreck is now here. I won't dispute the math for the nomination is your favour but the odds for a win in November are not. Though I am a Democrat and last voted for Republican John Anderson in 1980, I'll vote for McCain over Obama. Better the devil I know than one I don't and who is too inexperience for words. You fell in love, he spoke eloquently, he won your hearts but there few specifics on your life together past that wedding and now the engagement is falling apart. Vote with your heads, not your hearts. I know today is hard but I didn't start a Clinton supporter. In fact in 2007 I was an ABC voter Anybody But Clinton and I came to support Edwards. When faced with a choice between Obama and Clinton, the more I learned about Obama the less I like him but the more I learned about Clinton the more I like her. Look past the AUMF vote and think about who can actually deal with the situation on the ground, who has the support of the former military professionals and the expertise to get the job done. Hillary Clinton can amaze you if you let her.

The problem with Hillary Clinton is she is pandering her ass off.

First she talks about umbrella determent in the Middle East.

Then she talks says U.S. could totally obliterate Iran. Even though most experts say it is at least 10 years before Iran could make a nuclear weapon at its current pace.

Then she hops on this idea of a gas tax holiday. That would only save a person 25-30 bucks.

Don't even get me started on McCain. He puts out an economic policy where there isn't a tax he doesn’t want to cut, passing on huge debt to on kids and grandchildren.

He says he doesn’t know if we should build the ninth ward in New Orleans.

He doesn’t even know that 401 k plans and pensions don't pay capital gain taxes.

If this was an election about real issues, people would be discussing the lunacy of these statements by Clinton and McCain. Instead people are up in arms because he went on Fox news. People are up in arms for what a pastor said.

America this is your test and you are failing.

NO ONE HAS DONE MORE FOR DOOMSDAY NUCLEAR OBLITERATORS THAN DR. HILLARY STRANGELOVE CLINTON!!!

Mike;
I agree -the next Presidency is more important that either candidate. But when this primary started going negative I was reminded viscerally of the Swift Boaters.
As much as I find it disgusting, but both candidates will provide very big targets for them in the fall. What will be our defense if they trot out weeks of endless loops about Monica L? Enough to remind the voters how sucky that period was. If they do this-and make people actually FEEL that horrible era again-then say something like, "Do you want Bill Clinton back in the White House," what would be the defense against that?
I am afraid that there might be none.

Either way, we are going to have our work cut out for us in the general. I have mentioned many times, I think it will be up to us to defend either candidate because the Dem Party does not seem to be able to handle the Swift Boaters!

Well, I can only speak for the polling results of this independent, but currently Hillary is polling well-short-off-piss-poor.

I doubt other independents are far from my own sentiments, at least in my neck of the woods.

I agree adamchaz...and I would laugh my ass off at her defeat except for the tragedies downticket that it will lead to.

It won't be the first time a Clinton squandered a Democratic majority in the House and Senate.

But luckily, Barack Obama is going to be the next Democratic nominee for President and the next President of the United States.

Bit by bit the evidence is coming in. Obama likely cannot win in November. People are desperate to vote for a democrat. But they will be reluctant to vote for Obama b/c he has no established political identity. He has tried (pretty well) to create one during this campaign. Change is scary to most Americans. Clinton offers a known quantity. Sad to day, so does the awful McCain. If you don't want McCain to be president, you better think about Hillary soon. If you think Hillary is worse than any alternative, then why aren't you voting for Nader? B/c it is basically the same stance--which got us Bush and, if you keep it up, McCain. I'm not saying Hillary is perfect. She is better than McCain and she can beat him.

I proudly support the new frontrunner, Hillary Clinton. Now, with that out out of the way: I watched the entire Q&A with Rev. Wright at the Nat'l Press Club today on C-SPAN. With an open mind.

HE IS THE SMARMIEST, COCKIEST, MOST PREENING, MOST LOATHESOME NARCISSIST IMAGINABLE. His treatment of the moderator, borne from his intense anti-white and anti-woman feelings, says all you need to know about him. Like the Obama supporters on here he is a bully, a liar, and a charlatan. A deeply sick individual. He is 100%, exactly like his "WHITE DEVIL" counterparts, the Falwells and the Robertsons. Demagogue is too kind. Fraud is too kind. Sociopath is too kind. Delusional mental patient is too kind. I watched with an open mind, kind of half paying attention... and I was shocked. He sunk Barack's battleship this morning, but good.

Good riddance to them both. Oh, and you know what else? Take your lame, months-old and therefore superannuated "math" and shove it up your ass. Math doesn't win the day. Character does. Hillary has it, Barack and his scumbag preacher don't.

By the time the Republicans get through with Obama, even his white grandmother won't vote for him, let alone independents.

I think we are past the silly season and into the bloody season with punches coming from two sides, and the media. I can't watch it anymore. McCain and Clinton are two peas in a pod, trying to destroy Obama because they are scared of him and his grassroots organization. It's like watching "Mr. Smith Goes to Washington," when they smear James Stewart's character to make him look as dirty as they are. McCain and Clinton--won't vote for either one because they are both souless by the corruption in Washington.

TPM is now officially Hillaryis44 and Taylor Marsh combined. Thanks to Greg and Eric.

This is Excellent News for Josh, I guess.

General Elections polls this far out, when both nominees have not been selected, are meaningless. HRC has, for the past several weeks, not received much negative publicity. Obama is going easy on her becasue he wants to unite the party, and wants HRC and her supporters to find it easier to back him, which will be the case if he's not been tearing her to shreds. McCain and the freak show are after Obama becasue they know he'll be the nominee. The MSM has been after Obama, and has been giving Clinton a free ride. If HRC were some how to emerge as the nominee, McCain, the freak show, and the MSM would immediately switch gears and take out all the negative stuff they have on HRC. Her poll numbers would tumble quickly. Finally, AP/IPOS, is an outlier in the dubious world of general election polls.

It's obviously impossible to count the votes of people who didn't vote, but that doesn't mean that you should refuse to count the votes of people who did vote. There were also other issues on the ballot in those states that they should have come out to vote for, and their failure to do their duty as citizens should not be taken out on voters who did their duty and voted.