I don't give any single poll much credence. But taken all together and when they all show the same trend, that's very telling and credible, I think.

no, they're not tied. clinton is still leading! but it's nice for you guys to cling on to some hope!

It would be overly optimistic to expect Obama to win PA, but the polls are clearly indicating that he will do well there. It's consistent with his overall momentum since he quickly recovered from the Wright controversy. He showed that he can weather PR storms. He's a man of substance. He's Presidential material. I see him taking the nomination handily. Hillary needs to come up with an exit strategy that will preserve her dignity. Obama needs start thinking about McCain and November, and I've no doubt he is.

The more folk hear from Hillary . . . The more folk vote for the other Republican running for the DEM nomination.

McCain-Clinton '08

Yes they are. The poll says so.

Last I heard, Obama is outspending Hillary 5 to 1 in television ads in Pennsylvania, and we all know how effective television ads are. That is why Obama will be in trouble over Jeremiah Wright, his refusal to wear the American Flag, and Michelle's comments. McCain supporters will flood the airwaves with swift boat ads, and they will be effective.

Have other folks looked at the actual numbers in the ARG website write-up of this? If not, I encourage you to do so. The interesting fact that leapt out at me is that the number of folks claiming that they plan to vote for "someone else" has been growing quickly. Is it possible that voters are becoming tired of both of these two? Or is it possible that they are simply growing tired of Clinton (after all, the tie result is not only a function of Obama gaining, but also of Clinton losing support in PA rather drastically according to ARG's numbers)?

This IS great news for Hillary. Now they'll dial down expectations and when she wins by 8 the media will proclaim her, for the 100th time, the Comeback Kid. I lived in Pittsburgh for several years. Despite the awesome endorsements of the Bus and Franco Harris, it's Clinton country.

If Obama ties or wins in Pa, it's over.

Can I say that? Would Clinton graciously concede?

Or am I just falling into a dastardly trap, where Obama loses by a couple points and Clintonianites crow, "See?!? Yet again the Golden Boy doesn't meet expectations! UNELECTABLE!"

When I engaged in GOTV in 2004, I went to Pennsylvania because I had a free bed with my mother and I figured it was a true swing state where my efforts would make a difference. All the GOTV was organized through unions that have a laser focus on free trade agreements, so I think that the CAFTA incident might have been fairly damaging. It puts the lie to her working class cred. The tax returns probably would not hurt but for the CAFTA issue. I don't know that firing Penn helps.

Also, if you look at the internals, what the ARG poll really seems to show is how embedded HRC's support is with older white women and how malleable it is with other groups.

When Hillary caught that ball right before it hit the turf and ran it in for a touchdown, under heavy sniper fire I might add, she won the hearts and minds of Pittsburgh fans forever.

Beating expectations doesn't do her any good at this point, she has to start catching up in delegates.

Next thing you will be saying is that conceding the race is good for her because it ratchets down expectations.

Anecdotal evidence, I know, but I had to drive across much of Pennsyltucky yesterday and I was on the lookout for yard signs and bumper stickers. I say one Hillary yard sign, one Hillary bumper sticker, 12 Obama signs, and 10 Obama stickers. Excellent news for Hillary, I know.

Anecdotal evidence, I know, but I had to drive across much of Pennsyltucky yesterday and I was on the lookout for yard signs and bumper stickers. I say one Hillary yard sign, one Hillary bumper sticker, 12 Obama signs, and 10 Obama stickers. Excellent news for Hillary, I know.

Hillary will win PA just as she won Texas!

-5 delegates is a win, right?

Just a couple of comments on expectation managment.

First, ARG has had a built-in five to six point lead for Hillary in their likely voter model pretty much throughout their election. No way to know whether this poll represents the result of an effort by then to fix that, or, also possible, whether whatever was causing the model to over estimate Hillary's support before is now causing it to overestimate Obama's.

Second, IMHO, the most critical number in Pennsylvania is the undecided number. In states like Pa--older, whiter, rustier, unionier, states where there are a lot of people who already have all the risk in their lives they can stand--the undecideds have broken heavily for Hillary. If they haven't committed to take the risk before the election, they aren't going to do it in the voting booth. (The opposite has, of course, been true in states with different economic and demographic mixes. People in farm states, for example, seem to be able to accept the perceived risk of voting for Obamas with more equanimity than people in rusty industrial states, even if their economic situation is equally troubled. I guess it comes with a lifetime in an economy that depends on the weather.)

Bottom line, a 45-45 tie in the last polls before the election likely means a 7 - 9 point win for Hillary. Just be aware of that and you won't be demoralized when the innumerate imbeciles on MSNBC and CNN breathlessly talk about a "resiliant" Hillary's "stunning comeback" in a race that "was shown as tied" as recently as a day or two ago (while making broad generalizations about white people in general based on what happened in Pennsylvania). Obama only has a chance to win in Pennsylvania if he can get a majority of those undecideds into his pile before election day.

As I noted above, the number of respondants claiming that they will vote for "someone else" is growing. This made me curious - does anyone in PA know who else is on the ballot there? The Green Papers listing for PA only shows Clinton, Obama and "uncommitted." Is LaRouche, for instance, on the ballot in PA?

It will come down to popular vote. Anything less than 150,000 vote margin she's dead.

Good bet: Hillary wins with a margin between 150,000 - 200,000 votes.

Key for Obama: GOTV...

(although I think the Limbaugh effect was significant in Texas for Clinton).

That is the dumbest urban myth I've seen go around the internet since John fucking Titor - which at least was interesting.

I'm from Dallas - trust me - that is hooey.

Utter hooey.

This poll does not matter. Only polls where Hillary is leading witha huge margin matter. Since the margin here is small, this poll is even more worthless.

If you only count the states that Hillary won, you can see quite clearly that Hillary is winning! Isn't this enough reason for her to win the nomination? Why do we consider states that she did not win or is close in polls? I am a Hillary supporter and I don't understand this.

And don't say that I am uneducated or can't do math. I am a kindergarten graduate!

ondioline,

I would jump on a grenade for you after a comment like that. I'm still wiping the tears of laughter from my face.

Jump on a landmine...hah!

No offense to Lars. I am sure he simply misspoke.

One would hope that Lars would realize his verbal folly and correct himself if he and idiotic were in a real life situation wherein both a landmine and a grenade posed danger to them.

With this poll result, HRC can declare victory, cease campaigning and divert all remaining funds into finalizing a master plan to jick up the Convention in such a way as to dash the Democratic party unto smithereens.

This will allow the clearly superior candidate, Senator Obama, to return to the Senate and buzz around the head of President McCain like an angry bee, and for us to enjoy another four years of pure hell.

We won't be paying much attention, though, because we will be numb, and anyway we will be absorbed in following the lawsuits filed by Penn Wolfson and Ickes in an effort to collect the millions the Clinton campaign owes them and refuses to pay.

God bless you HRC for stopping all that awful Yes We Can nonsense. No we can't. Forget it. Go home, Jake, this is Hillarytown.