Against McCain, Obama Loses "Beer Track" — And Hillary Loses "Wine Track"
Does Obama have trouble among so called "beer-track" voters (a.k.a. blue collar whites) against McCain? Yes — but conversely, Hillary has just as much trouble against McCain with the "wine-track" crowd.
That's what a new Gallup poll released today finds.
McCain beats Barack Obama 46%-40% among voters with only a high school education or less, while Obama pulls ahead among voters with some college all the way up to a post-grad degree. Meanwhile, Hillary win the high school or less vote by a 48%-43% margin, then proceeds to lose the college-educated at all levels.
The interesting part is that Gallup has had very similar top-line results for the two Dems' trial heats against McCain, but it turns out they take remarkably different routes to get there.















Really, seriously, what does any of this "match-up" polling prove at this point? The identification of a true Democratic nominee will change the dynamics of the GE race to such an extent that these match-up polls will be instantly obsolete.
I find it extremely difficult to believe that any serious supporters of HRC over BHO (and vice versa) would vote McCain were the other nominated.
Why?
It simply would not be in their self-interest.
Of course, then again, "What's wrong with Kansas?"
April 10, 2008 4:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
With the nomination not even finalized, what's the point of these polls?
Clearly, things will change when there's a nominee.
April 10, 2008 4:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
You're kidding me, right? This means exactly what?
April 10, 2008 4:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
We just need to combine the two into one Super Candidate!
April 10, 2008 4:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
Maybe they can just join forces as Super Best Friends!!!
April 10, 2008 4:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
You do realize that every time anybody anywhere invokes one these asinine micro-categories, Mark Penn gets a nickel? It's true.
April 10, 2008 4:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thank you. Glad I am not the only one who finds it amazing how people are willing to give time to this micortrend polling bullshit.
April 10, 2008 4:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
it should be titled "mccain looses wine voters to obama, beer voters to clinton"
April 10, 2008 5:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
What about the "boxed-wine" track? Or the "specialty beer" track? Or the "Mountain Dew" track? Or the "Hawaiian Punch" track? Or the "Country Time Pink Lemonade" track? Or the "organic milk" track? Or the "Cobra 40 oz." track?
We need to know these things. Perhaps Mark Penn has already accurately polled these micro-groups.
April 10, 2008 4:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
LOL
April 11, 2008 9:23 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yes, but what about NASCAR dads and soccer moms?
April 10, 2008 4:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
Mark Penn microtrend polling becomes "news" worth reposting here it seems.
April 10, 2008 4:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
Chuck Todd on why these matchups are silly, and why as soon as we get a nominee, that Dem will get a big bounce against McCain:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/24016480
As always...the sooner this primary wraps up, the better for the Dems. Right now, Hillary prolonging things so as to keep raising money is not helping anyone but herself. Yes, it will take time and healing for Clinton folk to recover from this brutal experience. But I would hope that we can begin that healing and reconcilation process as soon as possible, with Obama as our nominee.
April 10, 2008 4:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
On a side note, anyone else out there drink both Wine and Beer?
(actually, I'll drink almost any alcoholic beverage save Jagermeister.
April 10, 2008 4:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm the same way, except pro-Jaegermeister and sans-whiskey.
What about the "whiskey-track" voter? White Castle Eater vote? Or the Deodorant Using crowd?
What about the "wife-beater" vote? Oh, that's a McCain constituency, duh.
April 10, 2008 4:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
Are you implying that the White Castle Eaters and the Deodorant Users are exclusive categories, sir? I demand that Obama DENOUNCE and REJECT this hate speech post haste!
April 10, 2008 4:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
yeah. wine or beer. GinT. Only on weekends.
NO Jaegermeister! EVER.
April 10, 2008 6:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
By November, a lot of people from both tracks are going to be on the one bourbon, one scotch and one beer track cause they ain't got no jobs.
April 10, 2008 6:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
Why can't we just say it for what it is? People with less education go toward Republicans and Hillary, and the most educated you are the more likely you are to go to Obama. All the polls have shown that, both with the Dem-Republican trends and the Obama-Hillary trends.
I, for one, am happy that I'm consistently on the more educated side. Call it, validation.
April 10, 2008 4:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
Since when did the inauguration turn into a national keger?
I actually drink both, long live unity.
April 10, 2008 4:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
Very Interesting. Just as I thought:
The Dumb and Dumber voters are breaking for The Warmonger and the Tuzla Chick Lit Heroine.
April 10, 2008 4:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's generally shown through - what else, polls - that the more educated you are, the more liberal you are.
So I see this to mean (if it has any meaning) just what wwjb said it means:
Hillary appeals to moderate===>conservative voters
Obama appeals to moderate====>progressive voters.
I thought I already knew this - in fact, I thought this was the actual crux of the difference of opinion on this board over candidates.
Maybe I just put that interpretation on it, but increasingly I think that is the divide.
April 10, 2008 4:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
Seriously, enough already. General election polling in April is meaningless, and it's even more meaningless when one party hasn't even chosen a candidate yet. If these matchups meant anything, we'd be talking right now about President Kerry running for a second term.
April 10, 2008 4:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
I am part of the Smirnoff Ice track.
April 10, 2008 4:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
I am part of the crypto-commie track... Stolychnaya and tonic for me.
April 10, 2008 4:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
McCain has the drug eating cunt vote locked up too I hear.
;-)
April 10, 2008 4:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
Trollopsicle?
April 10, 2008 4:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
Frigid trollop... kinda like fucking for virginity, no?
April 10, 2008 5:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
Masterful.
(-.-)(_ _)(-.-)
April 10, 2008 5:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'd laugh the polls off, but Bush got two terms. Sorry, but voters are notoriously stupid.
April 10, 2008 5:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well you are here representing that group at least.
April 10, 2008 5:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
So we've got the wine track, the beer track, the latte track, the soccer track, the Nascar track, the bluecollar track, the over-educated track, the black track, the Latino track, the white male track, the black male track, the women track, Reagan Democrat track, the Obamapublicans...the jagermeister, smirnoff, tequila, tangueray, and whiskey track (wine cooler drinkers shouldn't be allowed to vote, sorry), the college kids, the millenials....isn't this getting just a tad silly?
April 10, 2008 5:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
Are you a voter or not? You can't talk about "Americans" or "voters" as some sort of group outside yourself, unless you aren't American and/or don't vote.
Anyone who truly believes everyone else is stupid is proving a theory that proven some time back - that people who are the least informed are generally the most aggressive about thinking they know everything. How can a democracy be successful if the entire electorate is stupid? How can someone really call themselves and American and believe that people are too stupid to govern themselves?
Well, Repugs all believe that - obviously.
But I think the belief that everyone else is stupid is antithetic to our form of government.
April 10, 2008 5:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
They don't call it the Silly Season for nothing.
:)
My favorite line about this is something George Carlin said a couple of years ago on Mahr's show. He said: when you're born you get a ticket to the freak show. Those of us born in the US get a ticket for a front row seat.
April 10, 2008 5:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
Since supporters of John McCain think Barack Obama and Tiger Woods are essentially the same thing, I just have to say that "Silly season" is the term that is used to describe the stuff that goes on on the PGA between the last regular tournament of the year (used to be the Tour Championship) and the first tournament of the new year.
Money is made, but none of the wins actually count for anything. Silly season, indeed.
And I left out the deodorant user track, the white castle track, the commie track, and the feminist track from my comment above.
April 10, 2008 5:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
So, the better informed and well-educated a person is, the more likely that person is to vote for Barack Obama. That says something.
April 10, 2008 5:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
And this is solid analysis, how?
There are no benchmark numbers to cross-compare. Gallup gives numbers within the categories, but doesn't translate that into the national averages of each group.
These were the polling points:
Does anyone really think this is indicative of the national average between groups? Who knows, Gallup doesn't mention it. Neither does TPM. However, here's a link showing the breakdown of voters with varying degrees in 2004.
The sample had us think that 22% of Americans hold post-graduate degrees. However, based on the US Census Bureau, the average in the US is only 9.4%.
In addition, we're talking General Election numbers, right? The percentages of each category will also be different between states. For example, according to StateMaster , MN, WY, MT, NE, & UT have significantly higher high school graduates and above than CA, RI, NC, AR, and TX. That would significantly screw the actual numbers.
April 10, 2008 5:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Eric Stepp - I don't think anyone takes this exactly seriously.
At least I don't. The way numbers have been going up and down - it's all just a game anyway.
April 10, 2008 5:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
Iraqi Prime Minister Disagrees With Petraeus: US Forces Can Start Withdrawing.
Maybe somebody should ask McCain why he wants to stay in Iraq for 100 years when their leader said we can start wihdrwing?
April 10, 2008 5:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oops, withdrawing.
April 10, 2008 5:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
Actual Clinton supporter comment from HuffPo:
"I can tell you, as a Hillary suppoter, I have NO problem with her Colombian $$$$$$$. I don't care if that stupid rumor is true that they killed a lot of peoplebeginning with Foster. I don't care who they sleep with, who does their hair, or how priviledged they are now. She can do all the things this guy says she can. Restoring our good rep, our economy and narrowing the gap. She can do it, because she has the experience to do it. That's simply all I care about. I don't want to be united with anybody. I don't give a rat's ass about racism. I don't want unspecified change, just for the sake of change. All I want is the country/world the Clintons left us with in 2001."
Unfortunately, I still need to be convinced that the broad base of support for Sen. Clinton does not consist of people who think along these lines.
Bill will NOT be back in the White House. Neither he, nor his wife have any idea of what to do with a bad economy.
I'm so saddened by this...
April 10, 2008 5:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
But what about the Zima Track?!?
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/04/obama-zima-track-candidate.html
April 10, 2008 6:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
I hear that McCain's going to be campaigning in Appalachia and in the inner cities. Smart. Really. People like being asked for their vote.
As for Hillary losing the college-educated vote - this is hard for me to understand in my head while I have a understanding of it in my gut. It has to do with McCain’s approachability and ordinariness, the smiling grandfatherly mien. But McCain is callous about people in bad economic situations. He is callous about troops remaining in Iraq for a 100 years and never a mention in his rhetoric about the multitudes of Iraqis dead or the ones fleeing their homeland because of this lie based debacle this President and his party perpetrated. Surely the educated voter will not overlook these huge flaws. At least I hope not. On the other end of that poll – the HS educated, I hope they will be open to Obama’s charm and candor and will recognize his commonness.
We Dems don't have a nominee yet. Our nominee has not gone up against McCain't in a debate yet. So until people see the two facing off on the same teevee screen, McCain looks good.
April 10, 2008 6:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
America in Iraq, In A Nutshell:
If things get worse in Iraq we can not withdraw until things get much better.
If things get much better, we can not withdraw because Iraq may slide back into chaos.
Ah!, don't you see what has happened, Lads, and Lassies?
The Chicken Hawk Neo Cons have constructed a perfect Catch22 for the USA in Iraq.
We can never leave. It is the McCain Doctrine.
How do can we deconstruct the Chicken Hawks Catch22 in Iraq.
Why of course, there is only one solution; since we can never leave, we might as well let it into the Union.
You can thank me later, after you have bought all your new flags with all those extra stars for the Sunni, Kurd and Shiite states.
Next problem please.
April 10, 2008 6:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah. I drink alone....
April 10, 2008 7:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
As a cross-member of the White Castle-eating, Deodorant-using, Feminist micro-demo it's all too clear that none of the remaining candidates speak for me. Hence:
THIS IS EXCELLENT NEWS!!! FOR MIKE GRAVEL!!!
April 10, 2008 7:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
But these are just generic groups. We need more detail. For instance, who's ahead among the Wild Turkey crowd? Who's hot with the Mad Dog quaffers? We can safely assume the Southern Comfort crew are going for McCain but what about the Ripple drinkers? Got any metrics on them yet?
There's only 7 months until Election Day! Can't we get any better numbers than these for crying out loud?
April 10, 2008 8:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think we can safely assume that the Hennessey, Patron and at least 60% of the Gray Goose drinkers will vote for Obama.
April 10, 2008 9:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
And I guess I shouldn't say who I think will get the blunt, the phillie, the swishers vote.
;)
April 10, 2008 9:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
I imagine there are some sour grapes on both sides of this question coming from supporters of both candidates who would nevertheless come around by election day. But I'd also guess that the voters either candidate are likely to actually lose to McCain would tend to come more from the blue collar demographics in general. Barack Obama, to a much greater extent then Clinton, has fallen victim to the typical Democratic primary Catch 22 that to be nominated as the Democratic candidate, you basically have to come off ass too big a wuss to be elected president.
April 11, 2008 8:09 AM | Reply | Permalink