In a further indication that the Democrats are well-positioned to expand their House majority this November, Democrat Don Cazayoux has won a special election tonight for a Louisiana seat that has been in Republican hands for over 30 years.

With 99% of precincts reporting, Cazayoux leads with 49,371 votes, or 49% of the vote, followed by Republican Woody Jenkins at 46,554 votes, or 46%. In a district that voted 59% for President Bush in 2004, that is simply a stunning result.

This is on top of another big Democratic pick-up two months ago, when Bill Foster (D-IL) won the suburban Illinois seat of former GOP Speaker Dennis Hastert.

In short, this year isn't going very well so far for the NRCC.

Barack Obama is putting his financial advantages over Hillary Clinton to good use in Indiana and North Carolina, with two-minute ads set to air in each state to close out the primary campaigns there.

The ads are essentially the same for each state, talking about Obama's biography, concern with jobs and economic issues, and a commitment to telling people the truth -- with a particular focus on attacking Hillary Clinton's gas tax proposal, essentially saying that the plan is the opposite of straight talk.

Here's the Indiana version:

The North Carolina localized version is available after the jump.

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Barack Obama has officially won the Guam caucus, held yesterday local time, by a very narrow margin.

The numbers, with all votes now counted: Obama 2,264 votes, Clinton 2,257 votes, a margin of seven votes for Obama.

With only eight pledged delegates casting half a vote each, it looks like this race will be a wash at two full delegate votes apiece.

It's only mid-afternoon on a Saturday, but four super-delegates endorsements have already come out:

• In New Mexico, where Hillary Clinton very narrowly won the party-run primary on Super Tuesday, state party chair Brian Colón has endorsed Barack Obama.

• In South Carolina, former state superintendent Inez Tenenbaum, an Obama supporter, won the add-on slot in a state where he won the primary by a landslide.

• In Maryland, where Obama won the primary by a wide margin but the state party establishment has supported Clinton, the state party committee selected one Obama-supporter, former Gov. Parris Glendening, and one Hillary-backer, former Lt. Gov. Kathleen Kennedy Townsend, to fill their two add-on slots.

The opposite scenario -- a state where Clinton won, but many state party leaders back Obama and have it in their power to control the add-on seats -- will be coming up next Saturday in Massachusetts. It will be interesting to see what happens then.

The score so far: Obama +3, Clinton +1.

A new Rasmussen poll of Oregon give Barack Obama a double-digit lead in this May 20 contest:

Obama 51%
Clinton 39%

Sample size: 867 likely primary voters.
Margin of error: ±3%

The internals show a class divide here: Obama does best among upper-income voters, while Clinton does best among those earning less than $40,000 per year.

This morning's Zogby tracking polls show Barack Obama's lead in North Carolina slipping into the single digits, consistent with other polls, while also showing a tight race in Indiana. The numbers, compared to yesterday:

North Carolina
Obama 46% (-4)
Clinton 37% (+3)

Sample size: 627 likely primary voters, weighted for region, age, race and gender.
Margin of error: ±4%.

Indiana
Obama 43% (+1)
Clinton 42% (+0)

Sample size: 629 likely primary voters, weighted for region, age, race and gender.
Margin of error: ±4%.

Democrats have a big opportunity to expand their House majority today, and in a very unlikely place. The special election in Louisiana's Sixth District -- which gave 59% of its vote to President Bush in 2004 -- is being held today with Democrat Don Cazayoux favored to beat controversial Republican Woody Jenkins.

The GOP undertook an effort in the home stretch to tie Cazayoux, a social conservative, to the national party in general and Barack Obama in particular as an early experiment in using the Democratic frontrunner as a cudgel against down-ticket Democrats.

However, a Republican source tells TPM Election Central that while the ad has actually had some success, there isn't much optimism that it will be enough to pull Jenkins through: "Cazayoux's negatives have certainly gone up, but the question is whether or not it's been enough to make Woody Jenkins a viable alternative."

Polls close at 9 p.m. ET tonight.

A new InsiderAdvantage poll of Indiana gives Hillary Clinton a seven-point lead in this upcoming primary:

Clinton 47%
Obama 40%

Sample: 478 likely primary voters
Margin of error: ±4%

From the internals: Clinton is winning white voters 50%-35%, while Obama is ahead 88%-11% among African-Americans.

Hillary Clinton has a new ad in Oregon, a largely positive spot in which she re-introduces herself to a state that will vote May 20:

"It's going to take a fighter to meet these challenges," Clinton says, invoking her theme that she's the one who will get things done. "If you give me the chance, together we'll turn our country around."

Meanwhile, Clinton has picked up a new super-delegate, Jaime Gonzalez of Texas.

I've just obtained a copy of another ad hitting Obama on the gas tax that Hillary just started airing in Indiana.

The last-minute ad, which went up late on the Friday before election day, says Hillary's gas tax holiday would "save families $8 billion," and adds: "Barack Obama says that's just pennies."

"He'd make you keep paying that tax, instead of big oil," the ad continues.

The "just pennies" Obama quote comes from an Obama response ad that says that the gas tax holiday would save Indiana residents "just pennies a day."

As noted here before, Hillary chief strategist Geoff Garin has said the campaign's internal polling indicates that the gas tax holiday is persuading Hoosiers that she is in touch with their economic anxieties. This second ad suggests they're sticking with this all the way through election day.

The Obama campaign moved to engage Hillary more directly in the gas tax dispute today, issuing a second ad hitting back at her criticism of him on it. Now Hillary has hit back again.

Attack ads are common in politics, but it's not everyday that a spot ties a conservative candidate in a key race to forced abortions -- in this case involving TPMmuckraker "star" Bob Schaffer and the Marianas sweatshops.

This new third-party ad in the open Colorado Senate race was created by pro-campaign finance reform group Campaign Money Watch, and is set to air in the socially conservative Colorado Springs media market over the next two weeks. Its emphasis on the forced abortions in the Marianas seems clearly designed to alienate Schaffer from the GOP's Christian conservative base:

"Schaffer was supposed to be investigating sweatshops, where women workers were forced to have abortions," the voiceover says. "But he says, 'I did not observe a forced abortion.'"

"Did he look the other way?"

Here's a bit more evidence that Hillary's insistence that members of Congress declare whether they're "with us or against us" on her gas tax holiday proposal risks causing friction with them at a time when she's courting them as super-delegates.

Rep. Mark Udall, who's running for Senate in Colorado and is undecided in the presidential race, has just come out against the proposal in very strong terms indeed:

"Senator Clinton claimed yesterday that I either stand with her on this proposal or stand with the oil companies. To that I say: I stand with the families of Colorado, who aren't looking for bumper sticker fixes that don't fix anything, but for meaningful change that brings real relief and a new direction for our energy policy. We can't afford more Washington-style pandering while families keep getting squeezed.

"It is exactly the kind of short-sighted Washington game that keeps us from getting real results to our energy problem."

Coming from a key undecided super-delegate, that's some harsh language. And it bears a striking resemblance to Obama's criticism of her proposal, too.

Hillary spokesperson Howard Wolfson, on a conference call with reporters moments ago, confirmed that she'd be going forward with her plan to introduce the gas tax holiday legislation.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi opposes the proposal, so there's very little chance it will ever come to a vote, at least in the House. If it did, however, it could put members of Congress -- the same ones who are also super-delegates being courted by Hillary -- in a bit of a spot.

Anyway, she's going forward with it.

Late Update: Here's the audio from the call:

The Hillary campaign has hit back at former DNC chair Joe Andrew's surprise switch to Obama yesterday, releasing a letter from eight former DNC chairs that makes the "electability" case for Hillary.

Intriguingly, the letter states flatly that "Hillary can win our Party's nomination." But it doesn't say how this can happen, beyond saying that she's strong in Indiana and North Carolina, that her campaign is pumping at full capacity in remaining states, and that record turnout is expected in them.

In other words, the letter doesn't address whether she can catch Obama in the pledged del count or even in the popular vote.

A couple of the former DNC chairs are already known high-profile Hillary supporters, such as Terry McAuliffe and Ed Rendell. Full letter after the jump.

Late Update: It's actually seven former chairs and the family of the late Ron Brown.

Read more »

The big-money conservative third-party group Freedom's Watch is apparently desperate to hang on to a GOP House seat that is in danger despite being in a deep-red district.

In their latest gambit, Freedom's Watch didn't even try in their new attack ad to back up a key accusation against Don Cazayoux, the Dem candidate in tomorrow's closely-watched Louisiana special election for Congress. And in response, one local station pulled the ad from the air.

Here's the ad, which got taken off the air by Baton Rouge's CBS affiliate:

The Cazayoux campaign complained that there was no evidence at all that he supports benefits for illegal immigrants, and his true position is just the opposite -- indeed, they noted, the ad doesn't actually offer any sort of citation or other piece of evidence.

The battle between the two Dems over the "gas tax holiday" heated up on the trail today over Hillary's assertion that she was going to propose gas-tax-holiday legislation to see if members of Congress are "with us or against us" in battling the oil companies.

Obama claimed today that the "with us or against us" language had been borrowed from President Bush -- fightin' words indeed in a Dem primary.

Here's some audio of Hillary saying this on the trail last night...

Hillary, speaking of members of Congress, said: "I want them to tell us, are they with us or against us when it comes to taking on the oil companies?"

Hillary's throwing down of the gauntlet here could increase pressure on members of Congress -- who are also the super-delegates she's courting -- to take a position on the gas tax.

Obama has decided to engage Hillary more directly in the gas-tax-holiday fight, releasing a second ad today responding to her earlier ad hitting him for his refusal to embrace the idea. And on the trail this morning, Obama sought to ridicule her remarks.

"She even borrowed one of President Bush's favorite phrases, and said that every member of Congress had to tell her -- `are they with us or against us?' Obama said.

It's unclear as yet how the issue is cutting politically in Indiana. Obama's decision to engage the issue more forcefully is inconclusive on this question. It could either reflect a belief that she's got him on the defensive on the issue, or a belief that it makes it easier to cast her as a pandering politician, or a bit of both.

For their part, the Hillary campaign says that their internal polling shows that her gas-tax-holiday talk is persuading working people that she identifies with the economic strain they're suffering. Full transcript of Hillary's remarks after the jump.

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Yet another poll shows the North Carolina primary turning into a single-digit race. The latest numbers from Rasmussen, compared to their previous poll from three days ago:

Obama 49% (-2)
Clinton 40% (+3)

The internals show Obama winning black voters 74%-10%, while Clinton is ahead 58%-35% with whites. With Obama dogged by the Jeremiah Wright story, 43% believe he distanced himself from Wright out of genuine outrage, versus 40% who say he was politically motivated.

Meanwhile, a new Gallup national poll finds a 62%-30% majority of Democrats saying the long nomination battle is doing more harm than good for the party, contrary to the Clinton campaign' insistence that most Dems view it as a good thing.

Hillary, breaking with the time-honored (and unbearably hackneyed) tradition of depressing expectations in advance of elections, says on the trail today that she extremely bullish on her chances this coming Tuesday

"This primary election on Tuesday is a game changer. This is going to make a huge difference in what happens going forward. The entire country -- probably even a lot of the world -- is looking to see what North Carolina decides."

My understanding of the thinking inside Camp Hillary is that their best hope has been that Tuesday's voting in North Carolina and Indiana will end up effectively being a wash. In other words, Hillaryland insiders are hoping that keeping it close enough in North Carolina while winning Indiana would limit Obama's popular vote gains enough to make a popular vote win (counting Florida) still within the realm of possibility.

Keeping it close in North Carolina would also allow Hillary to argue that not only has she bested him in big industrial states, but she's also proven she can compete on his turf, too. That would allow her to further the "Obama keeps proving to be unexpectedly weak" storyline.

Predicting that Tuesday's voting will prove a "game-changer," however, would seem to be inflating expecations well beyond what I've understood to be Hillaryland's best case scenario for May 6th.

Rasmussen has just released a poll gauging public attitudes towards Obama's recent break with Reverend Wright:

A Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey found that just 30% of the nation's Likely Voters believe Barack Obama denounced his former Pastor, Jeremiah Wright, because he was outraged. Most -- 58% -- say he denounced the Pastor for political convenience.

Rasmussen also says that "Democrats are evenly divided as to whether or not Obama was surprised by Wright's comments on Monday." Rasmussen adds that "just 36% of Democrats believe outrage was the motivation," but doesn't supply a number for the percentage of Dems who believe he was outraged.

The rest here.

The Obama campaign goes up on the air in Indiana with an ad attacking Hillary over her earlier spot attacking him for opposing a so-called "gas tax holiday."...

Obama already released an earlier response ad on the gas tax dispute. The Hillary camp is still up with their spot in Indiana and North Carolina.

As I reported yesterday, Hillary senior adviser Geoff Garin claims that the Hillary campaign's internal polling shows that her attacks on Obama -- should we call them "gas attacks"? -- are working politically.

The fact that Obama has a second response ad up suggests either that there may be something to this -- or that Hillary's backing for the gas tax holiday are backfiring for Hillary and that the Obama campaign is looking to maximize this.

Indiana's largest newspaper, the Indianapolis Star, has endorsed Hillary Clinton in Tuesday's primary, saying that she "offers a clear-eyed view of the way things are," and "nuanced positions on how to address the war in Iraq, trade with China and economic expansion."

However, it's unclear if any newspaper endorsement has really had an effect in this cycle. For example, Barack Obama won practically all the major newspaper endorsements in California and Pennsylvania, but lost those primaries by substantial margins.

In a good sign for Democratic efforts to expand their Senate majority this year, a new Rasmussen poll of the New Hampshire Senate race finds former Democratic Gov. Jeanne Shaheen ahead of GOP Sen. John Sununu, who narrowly defeated her back in 2002.

The numbers, compared to the last poll from a month ago:

Shaheen 51% (+2)
Sununu 43% (+2)

Sample size: 500 likely voters
Margin of error: ±4%

Shaheen has consistently led in polls since even before she announced her candidacy, making Sununu the single most vulnerable incumbent Senator from either party this year.

This morning's Zogby tracking poll gives Barack Obama a double-digit lead in North Carolina, his widest of any current poll:

Obama 50%
Clinton 34%

Sample size: 668 likely primary voters, weighted for region, age, race and gender.
Margin of error: ±3.9%

And Zogby also has a close race for Indiana:

Clinton 42%
Obama 42%

Sample size: 680 likely primary voters, weighted for region, age, race and gender.
Margin of error: ±3.8%

A new SurveyUSA poll of Oregon shows Barack Obama ahead in this upcoming primary, but the result is within the margin of error. The numbers, compared to the previous poll from April 7:

Obama 50% (-2)
Clinton 44% (+4)

Sample size: 650 likely primary voters.
Margin of error: ±3.9%

The Oregon primary will be held on May 20, the same day as the Kentucky primary, which Obama looks likely to lose by a wide margin.

A new Research 2000 poll of North Carolina gives Barack Obama a seven-point lead here, with over 50% support but just inside the margin of error in a state where he needs a landslide:

Obama 51%
Clinton 44%

Sample size: 500 likely Democratic primary voters.
Margin of error: ±4.5%

Obama will need a big win in North Carolina, as he went in to the state as the undisputed frontrunner only to see HIllary Clinton make a major play for it, and most polls have seen the margin significantly narrow since the re-emergence of Jeremiah Wright.

The third-party-group spending is really flying in the presidential race today.

The Service Employees International Union, a major Big Labor ally of Obama, plunked down $500,000 on air time for the new pro-Obama Dem primary ad in Indiana that we reported on yesterday.

SEIU spokesperson Stephanie Mueller confirmed the half-million dollar buy, which isn't reflected in FEC filings yet.

This comes only hours after the American Leadership Project, the 527 put together by pro-Hillary unions and major donors, dropped another $200,000 on its ad hitting Obama on the economy, as we reported below. That brings ALP's total expenditure on the anti-Obama ad to $1.1 million.

All the outside cash flowing into the race is yet another sign of just how high the stakes in Indiana are seen to be by allies of both candidates.

Separately, SEIU also spent a startling $1.5 million on airtime today for an Ohio ad hitting John McCain over health care, FEC filings show -- meaning that the union's spending in the presidential race has hit $2 million for today alone.

Barack Obama is suffering a serious erosion in his support among white working class Dem primary voters, the new Pew Research poll finds.

A month ago, Hillary held a 50%-40% advantage among white Democratic voters with a high school degree or less. Today, after the Pennsylvania result and the latest flare-up by Jeremiah Wright, it's a 65%-25% win for Hillary among this same group.

Among white Dems making less than $50,000 per year, Hillary leads 58%-34%, up from a 47%-45% lead a month ago.

Pew still has Obama ahead in a statistical dead heat with a 47%-45% lead, but that's down from his 49%-39% lead last month. (Sample size: 651 Democratic voters and Dem-leaners. Margin of error: ±4.5%)

Read more »

The American Leadership Project -- the 527 put together by big Hillary-backing unions and major donors -- sank another $200,000 today into the ad they're running in Indiana attacking Obama on the economy, ALP spokesperson Jason Kinney just confirmed to me.

That brings the total spent on the ad to $1.1 million, Kinney says.

The initial buy on the ad was $700,000. The group dumped another $220,000 into the buy yesterday, and added the $200,000 more today.

Kinney says today's spending was designed to beef up the ad's rotation in the Indianapolis market.

The massive total expenditure -- by far the group's biggest buy yet -- underscores yet again the extent to which Hillary allies view Indiana as an absolute must-win.

A bit of an odd exchange on MSNBC just now: Howard Wolfson was asked by Andrea Mitchell to respond to former DNC chair Joe Andrew's switch to Obama.

Wolfson seemed to suggest that Andrew isn't really from Indiana, but Hillary is really from New York...

Wolfson: Well, I'm not sure by the way that he's actually from Indiana. I know he's originally from Indiana, but --

Mitchell: Well it's sort of like Hillary Clinton being from Illinois, or New York, or Scranton, or Arkansas --

Wolfson: No, she lives in New York, and so when she -- she's a senator from New York, so she's from New York.

Parsing this a bit, it would appear to mean that you're not actually from a state if you were born there, but you are from a state if you moved there in your early fifties to get elected Senator.

Late Update: Here's video...

Late Late Update: Andrew responds...

A new poll of Indiana from local firm TeleResearch further suggests that Jeremiah Wright has been hurting Barack Obama over the last few days. The top-line result is Hillary 48%, Obama 38%.

But it's in the internals that things get very interesting.

Read more »

Hillary just picked up four new super-dels -- so-called "add ons" that were selected by the New York state party today.

The four, according to her campaign, are: Andrew Cuomo, Thomas DiNapoli, C. Virginia Field and Carmen Arroyo.

Separately, the Obama camp announced a new super-del today: Texas DNC Member John Patrick.

Between these, an earlier Connecticut super-del for Hillary, the Joe Andrew switch to Obama, and the three Illinois add-ons for Obama announced earlier, that brings the daily tally to this:

Obama netted five super-dels; Hillary netted four.

Late Update: The Obama camp says he's 283 overall delegates from winning the nomination.

I've been meaning for some time to make a quick point about some of the real reasons that many super-delegates have been reluctant to choose sides in the Dem primary fight.

Some super-dels -- in particular, those who are also current candidates for office -- don't want to pick either Hillary or Obama yet partly because they're reluctant to alienate the major donors who have lined up with the candidate they don't pick. That's because these super-dels are themselves hoping to raise money from those donors for their own campaigns.

This sort of explanation has been largely absent from the discussion about the super-dels. Their reluctance to decide between the two Dems is almost always framed as an inability to decide based on the actual merits of each of the candidates.

In fact, as Dem donors who have privately discussed the situation with super-dels tell me, the super-dels are also largely driven by constraints on their local political situation -- constraints such as this fear of alienating big-money people in the party.

Just something worth being aware of as this bizarre and convoluted process continues to unfold.

Is Hillary gaining politically by her support for a so-called "gas tax holiday"?

On a conference call with reporters just now, Hillary chief strategist Geoff Garin claimed that the campaign's internal polling shows that it is.

"We're seeing in our polling that working people appreciate the fact that Senator Clinton understands the incredible economic strain they are facing," Garin said.

Also, Garin sought to spin one of the main arguments against the gas tax holiday -- the fact that it saves consumers a negligible amount on average -- as a further sign that Hillary's in touch with blue-collar workers.

"It may not seem like a lot to some people," Garin said, adding that "every penny counts."

The fact that Hillary supports the gas tax holiday because she understands that the meager average savings involved do matter to ordinary folks is likely to be core Hillary spin as the gas tax argument continues to unfold.

As for Garin's assertion that this dispute is helping her politically, we haven't seen this polled publicly yet, and it'll certainly be interesting to see what future polls show on this.

National Dems have just increased their chances at a major House pick-up this Fall, recruiting former Nevada state Senate minority leader and 2006 gubernatorial nominee Dina Titus to run against incumbent Republican Jon Porter in a key swing district.

It's yet another sign that national Dems are successfully using their advantages in fundraising to find more candidates and expand the playing field for the 2008 elections. Titus only narrowly lost her campaign for governor after starting out way behind, and the ethics scandals that have faced the new Governor Jim Gibbons could inspire some buyer's remorse in her favor.

The Obama campaign is working very hard today to maximize the impact of the big surprise endorsement they received today from former DNC chair Joe Andrew -- he's hitting no less than three Indiana media markets today.

Andrew, who is from Indiana himself, did a presser this morning in Indianapolis, and Obama aides tell me that he's doing in-person TV interviews this afternoon in both Evansville and Louisville. He'll be campaigning in the state for Obama tomorrow.

It's unclear what sort of impact Andrew can have here -- he briefly ran for governor in 2003 and is now a D.C. corporate lawyer. But the Andrew endorsement is no small thing, since it potentially demonstrates that the spate of bad news that's buffeted Obama of late hasn't stopped some establishment Dems from seeing him as the better nominee.

A new batch of polls from Quinnipiac University lends weight to Hillary Clinton's argument that she's more electable against McCain than Obama -- it finds that she handily beats McCain in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, while Obama only wins in one of the three:

Florida
Clinton (D) 49%, McCain (R) 41%
McCain (R) 44%, Obama (D) 43%

Sample: 1,411 Florida voters. Margin of error: ±2.6%.

Ohio
Clinton (D) 48%, McCain (R) 38%
McCain (R) 43%, Obama (D) 42%

Sample: 1,127 Ohio voters. Margin of error: ±2.9%.

Pennsylvania
Clinton (D) 51%, McCain (R) 37%
Obama (D) 47%, McCain (R) 38%

Sample: 1,494 Florida voters. Margin of error: ±2.5%.

On the bright side for Obama, his showings in Florida and Pennsylvania have improved since the last poll from a month ago. However, Hillary is still outperforming him in all three states.

A new Mason-Dixon poll of North Carolina confirms that this has state's primary has turned into a very close contest: Obama 49%, Clinton 42, a result within the five-point margin of error among 400 likely Dem primary voters.

As little as a week ago, before the re-emergence of Jeremiah Wright, Obama had double-digit leads in nearly every survey. Now, they nearly all show it to be a very close contest. Also, this poll further shows how racially-polarized the campaign is in this state: Obama has the support of 87% of blacks, while Hillary has 62% of whites.

Hillary's up in North Carolina with an uplifting new spot designed to maximize one of her key endorsements in the state -- Governor Mike Easley, who describes her as "resilient" and "determined" and destined to be a "great president."...

Due to some local political machinations in Illinois, Obama is set to pick up three more super-delegates in his home state this weekend.

With the switch of former DNC chair Joe Andrew from Hillary to Obama, he has now crept to within 20 super-dels of Hillary: She's got 267, while he's got 248.

The three he's going to get this weekend will bring him to 251.

The newest FEC filings show the extent to which the Congressional Democrats have been able to throw their financial advantage around this cycle and expand the playing field, with the DCCC now making a major investment in the nationally-watched Mississippi special election.

The DCCC put in over $700,000 yesterday on behalf of Democrat Travis Childers, bringing their total spending so far to about $1.1 million. By comparison, the NRCC has only been able to spend about $590,000 to play defense in a deep-red Southern district.

A new SurveyUSA poll in Louisiana shows Democrats on track to win this Saturday's special election to fill the vacancy of former Rep. Richard Baker (R), who resigned in February to become a lobbyist.

The poll shows conservative Democrat Don Cazayoux with 50% support, with 41% for GOP candidate Woody Jenkins, a longtime controversial fixture in Louisiana politics.

This seat has not been held by a Democrat since the 1970s, and the district voted 59% for President Bush in 2004, so a Dem win here would be big news indeed.

A new Rasmussen poll of Indiana gives Hillary Clinton a narrow lead here: Clinton 46%, Obama 41%, a result within the five-point margin of error.

The poll also further illustrates the degree to which the negative tone of the Democratic race has taken a toll on both candidates: Only about half of Clinton supporters have a favorable opinion of Obama, and the same goes for Obama supporters' views of Clinton.

Hillary Clinton has lost a super-delegate this morning in a defection over to Barack Obama, Joe Andrew of Indiana. And just to make it look worse for her, Andrew is a super-delegate by virtue of his service as DNC chairman during Bill's administration, but is now calling for the party to unite behind Obama.

"While I was hopeful that a long, contested primary season would invigorate our party, the polls show that the tone and temperature of the race is now hurting us," Andrew wrote in an open letter.

"John McCain, without doing much of anything, is now competitive against both of our remaining candidates. We are doing his work for him and distracting Americans from the issues that really affect all of our lives."

A new InsiderAdvantage poll of North Carolina is the first one yet to actually show Hillary Clinton ahead in the crucial primary, demonstrating just how badly the latest controversies have hurt Barack Obama. The numbers, compared to the firm's last poll from two weeks ago:

Clinton 44% (+8)
Obama 42% (-9)

The pollster's analysis has this caveat: "Our polling generally does not indicate the eventual compression of black voters that Obama usually enjoys just before Election Day. If that happens, my guess is that he will pull this out. However, this poll is clearly an indication of reaction to the latest statements by his former pastor; and it forces Sen. Obama to split resources between Indiana and North Carolina."

Hillary Clinton will reportedly pick up a new super-delegate endorsement Thursday, with the support of Connecticut DNC member and state AFL-CIO head John Olsen.

Barack Obama narrowly won the Connecticut primary, and has a substantial majority of declared super-delegates in the state.

The new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll finds that Obama has edged back into a national lead over Hillary.

Here are the numbers among Dem primary voters, compared to late and early March:

Obama 46% (45%) (43%)

Hillary 43% (45%) (47%)

Some other numbers in the poll gauge the impact of recent major stories on both candidates among registered voters:

* 36 percent have major concerns that Clinton seems to change her position on some issues (like driver's licenses for illegal immigrants and the North American Free Trade Agreement, which her husband signed but which she now opposes)

* 34 percent say they're bothered by Obama's "bitter" remarks

* 32 percent have a major problem with the Illinois senator's past associations with Wright and the 1960s radical William Ayers

* 27 percent have serious concerns that Bill Clinton would have too much influence on U.S. policy decisions if his wife is elected

Full poll here.

The latest CBS/New York Times poll has some good news and some bad news for Barack Obama. The good news is that despite the recent headaches of his Pennsylvania loss and the reemergence of Jeremiah Wright, he's actually leading Hillary Clinton by a little more than he was four weeks ago:

Obama 46% (+0)
Clinton 38% (-5)

On the other hand, he now doesn't do as well against John McCain as Clinton does:

Obama (D) 45%, McCain (R) 45%
Clinton (D) 48%, McCain (R) 43%

Another danger sign for Obama: In the last poll his personal rating was 43% favorable to only 24% unfavorable. Now it's 39% favorable and 34% unfavorable, a ten-point increase in his negatives. On the other hand, this is still better than Hillary's 36%-42% rating, and McCain's 33%-34% rating.

Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama have now reached parity in TV ads for the two upcoming primary states, an indication that Hillary's pre-Pennsylvania cash-flow problems have been fixed for the time being and she's able to compete on roughly equal terms.

A non-partisan analysis finds that Hillary and Obama have spent $100,000 per day each on TV ads in Indiana over the past week, the swing primary state that could very well determine whether Obama sews up the nomination or Hillary keeps the clock running. Meanwhile, Hillary is spending $135,000 per day in North Carolina, actually a little more than $120,000 per day by Obama.

However, Obama still has the total spending advantage here. Counting the time before Hillary's Pennsylvania win enabled her to rake in new cash, Obama has still outspent Clinton by about two-to-one in these states.

Here's Obama's ad in Indiana and North Carolina responding to Hillary's spot yesterday hitting him for not supporting a "gas tax holiday"...

Interestingly, Obama's response never mentions Hillary's spot. Instead, he points to the "gas tax holiday" as a way of furthering his familiar message that he intends to rise above Washington's typical way of throwing short-term bogus fixes at serious problems.

"That's what you need from a president," Obama says. "Somebody who's gonna tell you the truth."

This is an interesting little scuffle.

On the campaign trail today, Hillary repeated a tale she often tells on the stump: It concerns an American company in Indiana that laid off all its workers after it was sold to the Chinese government.

Listen to Hillary tell the story...

The kicker of the tale, as told here by Hillary, is that President Bush could have stopped the move, but he didn't. "The President has the authority to veto that kind of a move," Hillary said today.

Today, however, McClatchy reported that the sale was approved by the Clinton administration. McClatchy quoted several Indiana residents griping about the Clinton administration's role in letting these jobs get away. It's the sort of tale that could have resonance among struggling working class voters in the state.

But the Hillary campaign responds that the sale was approved by the Clinton administration "on the condition that the production and the technology to produce neo-magnets would stay in the U.S."

The Hillary camp also argues that the investors behind the deal backed out of that promise in 2003, after Bill left office, and that President Bush didn't enforce the deal -- their point being that while it's true that the Clinton administration approved the deal, it's not responsible for the job loss that ensued.

Late Update: Jake Tapper has a nuanced look at this whole affair, including this:

A memo prepared for Bayh by the non-partisan Congressional Research Service earlier this year stated that the Clinton administration could have objected to the sale under CFIUS, but it did not, and that the consortium promised to keep those Anderson, Ind., jobs in the U.S. only until 2005.

Those who predicted that Hillary would hit Reverend Wright during her appearance on Fox News' The O'Reilly Factor were right.

Fox just aired a promo of the interview, which has been recorded and is set to air tonight, and in it, O'Reilly pushes Hillary to attack Wright -- and she obliges. Take a look...

More of the interview as we get it. Full transcript of this snippet after the jump.

Read more »

A second national poll finds that Barack Obama's advantage among independents in general election match-ups may have disappeared, and Hillary Clinton is now performing better among them against John McCain.

The new Fox News poll finds John McCain winning independents against Hillary Clinton by a 42%-38% margin -- and doing even better against Obama, winning indys by 47%-37%.

For comparison the previous Fox poll in March had McCain winning independents 47%-31% against Clinton, and 45%-37% against Obama -- meaning that Hillary's standing has improved, while Obama's latest campaign travails may have caused his position to stagnate or even decline.

The difference between Hillary and Obama's indy support is not statistically significant, but the finding that Obama's advantage among them may have disappeared was also the finding in an Associated Press poll that came out on Monday.

American Leadership Project spokesman Jason Kinney has responded forcefully to Obama campaign chief counsel Bob Bauer's FEC complaint against the pro-Hillary 527 group.

The complaint alleges that the group is operating illegally as a campaign committee designed to circumvent reporting requirements, in order to fund their huge ad buys against Obama in Indiana and previous primary states -- something the Obama campaign wants to stop.

"He appears to have a gaping double standard for 527 committees that don't purport to benefit his candidate," Kinney says, pointing out that other 527 groups have helped Obama during this season, and Bauer has not filed any legal complaints against them.

And furthermore, Kinney says that before Bauer joined the Obama campaign, he argued that the law permits this kind of activity.

Kinney's closer: "Is it possible to quote me yawning?"

The Obama campaign's super-delegate offensive is continuing with their third Congressional endorsement of the day, Rep. Lois Capps (D-CA).

This endorsement is especially interesting because the Clintons were close to her late husband, Congressman Walter Capps, and helped raise money and campaigned for her when she ran for the seat.

Earlier today Obama received the endorsements of Reps. Bruce Braley (IA) and Baron Hill (IN), compared to one super so far for Hillary, DNC member William George of Pennsylvania. As of right now, Clinton's lead among super-delegates is only about 20 declared votes.

Late Update: Hillary has also picked up the support of Puerto Rico super-delegate Luisette Cabanas.

Here's a first look at a new ad the SEIU is going to run in Indiana on behalf of Barack Obama.

An SEIU spokesperson confirms the ad is running statewide.

The ad doesn't mention Hillary, but the narrator implicitly attacks her vote for the Iraq War: "Only one candidate opposed this war from the start -- Barack Obama."

The Obama campaign has just announced they've filed an FEC complaint against the American Leadership Project, the 527 group founded by some big Hillary Clinton donors and pro-Hillary unions, on the grounds that they have failed to properly register as a political committee and to obey spending and donation limits in their founding mission of spending on behalf of Hillary Clinton.

"The group isn't making any bones about their purpose here," said Obama campaign chief counsel Bob Bauer on a conference call with reporters, "which makes their legal position hopelessly defective."

As we've previously reported, the ALP has put down $700,000 to run a new attack ad against Barack Obama in the key Indiana primary.

Late Update: Here's the audio from the call:

This is fun. A Democratic National Committee spokesperson confirms to me that the DNC, somewhat puckishly, asked Fox News if the network would run its ad attacking McCain over his 100-years Iraq talk -- and that Fox has agreed.

The reason this is amusing is that the Republican National Committee has been claiming that the ad is misleading and constitutes illegal coordination with the Dem campaigns, and has demanded that networks refrain from running it.

But the RNC's argument is apparently so specious that not even Fox accepted it.

Hillary Clinton has a new one-minute ad in North Carolina starring Maya Angelou, a clear play for black voters in a state where Barack Obama is counting on African-Americans to deliver a big victory for him:

Recent polls have shown Hillary closing the gap here, though she still trails in even her best numbers. However, if she can win Indiana and deprive Obama of a North Carolina landslide, that would go a very long way in making her case to super-delegates that Obama is really a weak candidate.

The Obama campaign just confirmed to me that he's going to pick up the endorsement tonight of super-del and Indiana Rep. Baron Hill.

The endorsement was first reported moments ago in Bloomington's Herald-Times, and Obama spokesperson Josh Earnest confirmed the report.

That's a key get in a crucial state that's voting in less than a week. Obama's super-del total for today: Two.

Hillary picks up the support of super-del and Pennsylvania AFL-CIO president Bill George.

That leaves five undecided super-dels in Pennsylvania.

Separately, George Stephanopoulos reported this morning that the Obama camp will roll out a bunch of supers today.

Sources tell me that right now the Obama camp is on track to roll out one more today in addition to Bruce Braley, who was announced this morning, though the sources also say there could very well be more.

A new survey of Indiana from Public Policy Polling (D) gives Hillary Clinton a good-sized lead going into Tuesday's primary: Clinton 50%, Obama 42%.

From the internals: Hillary leads 54%-39% among women voters, while Obama has a statistically insignificant 46%-44% edge among men. Other polls have ranged between a similar-sized Hillary lead or a bare advantage for Obama.

From the pollster's analysis: "She may be able to win a strong enough margin Barack Obama is likely to win by in North Carolina. The question then becomes whether a tie on May 6th is enough to keep her in the race."

Al Franken is now working to undo a tax controversy that has caused him some damage in the polls paying $70,000 in back taxes to 17 states where he's done business over the years and where he neglected to pay -- a story that has chipped away at his credibility in making the transition from entertainer to politician in a top-tier Senate race.

"What happened is our accountant made a mistake, and all of these are repercussions of that same mistake," said Franken. "His mistake was not understanding the law, the obligation to pay these state taxes."

This has to be exactly the sort of front-page media coverage Hillary wants in North Carolina -- take a look at the front page this morning from the Fayetteville Observer:

Clinton is calling for a Congressional investigation of poor living conditions at the Fort Bragg Army base in North Carolina, a move that could boost her support among working-class voters and military families in the key primary next week. Meanwhile, the sub-heading is about Obama denouncing his pastor.

Clinton told the Observer: "We've asked these young soldiers to risk their lives and bear brutal living conditions ... and when they return home, the least we can do is offer them decent, clean living conditions."

The Obama campaign confirms that he will get the endorsement of Rep. Bruce Braley of Iowa today.

It's a key super-del get for Obama, because Braley's from a rural swing district and is a former Edwards backer, which could help defuse the talk that Obama is struggling with white working class voters.

Sources also confirm to me that Obama will roll out a second super-del -- and perhaps more on top of that -- later today.

The heated battle for Congressional super-delegate votes may be just about over, with Obama-backer Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-MO) saying this morning that most of the roughly 80 publicly-uncommitted members of Congress have already said where they stand in private.

"The majority of super-delegates I've talked to are committed, but it is a matter of timing," said McCaskill, predicting that her candidate would come out on top in the end.

Meanwhile, George Stephanopoulos reported this morning that the Obama campaign will roll out multiple super-delegate endorsements today, as part of a strategy to "try to get back on track" in the wake of the most recent Jeremiah Wright controversy.

Ads, ads, and still more ads: Here are two new spots from Obama that just went up in North Carolina.

The first features Obama offering his respect for values like "hard work, community, keeping your word," and showcasing his promises to fight special interests on behalf of the sort of working people that Camp Hillary has been insisting he's culturally out of touch with...

The second tries to showcase his respect for the military by highlighting his work on behalf of veterans. "As commander-in-chief, my job is to keep you safe," Obama says. "Part of keeping you safe is maintaining the finest military in the world."

No mention of Hillary in either spot.

Here's Hillary's first "contrast" ad in Indiana -- it's a spot that hits Obama for saying "No" to a suspension of the gas tax, an issue that's been propelled to the forefront of the campaign by rising gas prices and the new battle between Dems over the so-called "gas tax holiday" idea...

The ad, which also hits Obama for allegedly saying "No" to a freeze in foreclosures, seeks to paint Hillary as an aggressive problem solver on the economic issues that are causing anxiety among the struggling voters that she's been successful among thus far in the big states.

Here's a Washington Post fact check on the gas-tax-holiday issue. And here's the Obama campaign's response to criticism on the foreclosure issue.

Late Update: A decent rundown on the battle between the two Dems on the gas tax holiday is here.

Late Late Update: The Hillary campaign says the same ad is also running in North Carolina.

Barack Obama has a new ad up in Indiana, in which the candidate talks about his knowledge of problems throughout Indiana, making sure to mention that he's from right next door in Illinois:

Meanwhile, Hillary Clinton has this ad in Indiana about her own Midwestern roots:

Hillary Clinton has picked up a big super-delegate endorsement, with the campaign announcing the support of Rep. Ike Skelton (D-MO), chairman of the House Armed Services Committee and a key rural Democrat.

Skelton cited Hillary's strengths in rural areas as major reason for his support, plus her positions on national security. This further ties in with the efforts Hillary has made to overpower Obama among white rural voters in places like Pennsylvania and now North Carolina, and complements her endorsement this morning from North Carolina Gov. Mike Easley.

So why did Hillary agree to go on The O'Reilly Factor and will she be taking on O'Reilly in some way, as Obama was criticized for not doing during his interview with Fox's Chris Wallace?

I just posed these questions to Hillary spokesperson Howard Wolfson. He would only say:

"We've had a standing offer from them for a while -- Hillary obviously doesn't agree with Bill O'Reilly on many issues, but he has a large audience of politically engaged people."

They may be politically engaged, but are they persuadable in any way? Some 2004 polling suggested that Fox viewers supported Bush over Kerry by 88%-7% and gave Bush more votes than conservatives, white evangelicals, gun owners, and supporters of the Iraq War.

Meanwhile, a senior adviser to Hillary, asked whether she'd be taking on O'Reilly in some fashion, said, on condition of anonymity:

"That's not the plan."

Late Update: MoveOn, a major Obama supporter that hit the Illinois Senator over his Fox appearance and has led the charge against Fox, emails over this response, complete with hyperlink:

"With no plan to call out Fox's Republican agenda, Senator Clinton's appearance on 'The O'Reilly Factor' does nothing more than legitimize a network that will then use that credibility to smear Democrats and progressive ideas in 2008. She's pandering to a small audience that is not persuadable."

A new SurveyUSA poll of North Carolina shows the Democratic race seriously tightening here, with the result now within the margin of error. The numbers, compared to a week ago:

Obama 49% (-1)
Clinton 44% (+3)

Key internal numbers: Obama leads 87%-11% among African-American voters, but Clinton has taken a 61%-30% advantage among whites.

Other polls from Rasmussen and Public Policy Polling, have shown Hillary catching up, but with Obama still ahead by double digits.

North Carolina is widely seen as a state that Obama not only has to win, but has to win big. Otherwise, a narrow victory of even a Hillary upset victory would heavily persuade super-delegates of Clinton's case that Obama is really a weak candidate..

At a press conference today, Barack Obama took some of his most aggressive steps yet to distance himself from his controversial pastor, claiming that the pastor who appeared at yesterday's Q-and-A with reporters "was not the person that I met 20 years ago" and that he doesn't "know him as well as I thought."

Here's the key quote, which Obama delivered moments ago:

The person I saw yesterday was not the person that I met 20 years ago. His comments were not only divisive and destructive, but I believe that they end up giving comfort to those who prey on hate, and I believe that they do not portray accurately the perspective of the black church.

They certainly don't portray accurately my values and beliefs. And if Reverend Wright thinks that that's political posturing, as he put it, then he doesn't know me very well. And based on his remarks yesterday, well, I might not know him as well as I thought, either.

The comments -- combined with the fact that he's devoting today's presser to Wright damage control -- underscore the degree to which the Obama campaign recognizes that Wright's sudden reappearance in the campaign has the potential to do him serious harm at a moment when a confluence of events are buffeting his candidacy.

More in a bit.

Late Update: Here's video of Obama's opening statement:

Late Late Update: Here's the Q & A:

Hillary spokesperson Howard Wolfson confirms to me that she's going on Fox News' O'Reilly Factor tomorrow night.

This has the potential to infuriate the netroots more than Obama's interview with Chris Wallace, because O'Reilly is obviously an unrepentant Dem-sliming, Dem-despising hard-right ideologue, while Wallace at least tries to keep up the pretense that he's working for a legit news organization.

It will be interesting to see how Hillary justifies this -- whether she signals some sort of intention to "take on" O'Reilly, as the Obama adviser promised he'd do to Wallace, or whether she actually does challenge Fox in some way. If not, expect a major outpouring of criticism.

He just picked up the support of Iowa superdelegate and farmer Richard Machacek, reports the Des Moines Register.

That's two for Obama today. The latest super del tally (not including the above): Hillary, 265; Obama, 243.

If Obama were to pull even with Hillary by this metric, that would be a big story.

The new Rasmusssen poll finds that Obama's lead over Hillary in North Carolina has slipped by nine points, though he still leads her by double-digits.

Here are today's numbers, compared with earlier this month:

Obama 51% (56%)

Hillary 37% (33%)

This mirrors yesterday's Public Policy Polling survey, which also found Obama's lead shrinking but him still ahead by double-digits.

Hillary absolutely needs to make the North Carolina contest much closer than expected if she is to argue that she can compete on Obama's turf and if she is going to have any success furthering the "Obama is weak" narrative her campaign has been pushing.

While these polls show her gaining ground in the state, it's not at all clear yet whether she'll be able to cut deeply enough into his support to accomplish this.

Here's the new ad from the National Republican Congressional Committee for Mississippi special election, part of the new Republican media offensive against Barack Obama. The ad ties Democratic nominee Travis Childers, a social conservative, to such big-name liberals as John Kerry, Nancy Pelosi, and Obama, too:

The latest FEC filings show an ad buy of over $260,000 -- meaning that the cash-strapped NRCC sees both a real need to spend money in this deep-red district, and also some real potential for using Barack Obama's name to poison down-ticket Dem chances.

Late Update: Here's the newest ad over in the contested Louisiana special election, tying Dem nominee Don Cazayoux to "the Obama-Pelosi team":

Progressive Media U.S.A., the third-party pro-Dem group that has vowed to raise $40 million to target McCain in advance of the general election, is already feeling the influence of its new leader, Media Matters' David Brock.

The group has just launched a new McCain "fact check" site called McCainSource.com whose goal is to keep the press' coverage of McCain on the up and up.

Fact-check sites that are essentially appendages of campaigns have been all the rage in this election, but this one could prove a useful resource. Take a look.

Barack Obama is set to pick up a major endorsement in Kentucky today, with the campaign saying Congressman Ben Chandler will announce his support at a news conference this afternoon in Louisville.

Along with freshman Rep. John Yarmuth, who endorsed back in February, Obama now has the support of both of Kentucky's Democratic House members -- which is odd considering that Kentucky may well be his single worst state in the Union in both primary and general election polls, and thus it doesn't seem like he'd be much help to them at the top of the ticket.

Here's the new attack ad against Barack Obama coming from the American Leadership Project, the independent group set up by some big pro-Hillary Clinton donors and unions, hitting Barack Obama on jobs and the economy in the Indiana primary:

As we reported yesterday, a total of $700,000 is being put down on this ad, a sign that the Clinton campaign and its allies know that the Indiana primary will be make or break.

The Republicans have been sharpening their message against Barack Obama with $500,000 in new ads in the ongoing special House elections in Mississippi and Louisiana -- a stark contrast to the old days when Hillary Clinton was the boogeyman of Republican advertising.

Here's the NRCC's ad in the contested Louisiana special election:

"I think he's the weaker candidate, and I've thought that for over a year now," said NRCC Chairman Tom Cole. "He's very inexperienced. He is by any definition liberal and to the left of Hillary Clinton, and he will give us plenty of ideological divisions to work with."

John McCain has a new ad airing in Iowa, featuring the candidate speaking to the camera and pitching his health care plan to voters in a key swing state -- an indication that McCain is looking to shore up his standing on domestic issues:

Iowa voted narrowly for Al Gore in 2000, then narrowly for President Bush in 2004, and polls this year have mostly shown McCain trailing Barack Obama and beating Hillary Clinton here. So no matter who the Democratic nominee ends up being, expect this state to be very closely contested.

The Republican National Committee has developed a new method for rebutting attack ads against John McCain: Send threatening letters to any cable networks that might run them.

RNC chief counsel Sean Cairncross has notified NBC, CNN and MSNBC that he believes the new Democratic ad attacking John McCain's "maybe a hundred" years in Iraq line is illegal on two counts: 1) It is misleading, in that Cairncross says it distorts McCain's words, and 2) It constitutes collaboration between the Clinton and Obama camps and the DNC in fashioning a message against McCain.

During a conference call today with reporters, DNC chairman Howard Dean denied any collaboration with the Obama or Clinton camps in making the ad, and had this to say when asked whether he actually expected any real legal action on the RNC's part, beyond threatening letters: "Let them do it."

Hillary Clinton is set to pick up a major North Carolina endorsement tomorrow, with popular two-term Governor Mike Easley coming on board in a primary where she's run way behind in the polls.

It's unclear whether Easley's endorsement will have enough time to be effective -- after all, the election is only a week away, and there's been a competitive primary to succeed him as governor between two candidates who are both pro-Obama. That said, it certainly couldn't hurt.

This is a surprising nugget buried in the new Associated Press poll:

When pitted against McCain, Clinton now wins among independents, 50 percent to 34 percent, when just a few weeks ago she ran about even with him with this crucial group of voters. Clinton also now does better among independents than Obama does in a matchup with McCain.

Internals aren't yet available, and those will help in evaluating this.

Obama's appeal to independents is central to the argument for his electability, something that's key to super-dels. Of course, this poll could simply be an outlier, since many other polls have shown him stronger among indys.

The American Leadership Project -- the 527 that was put together by Hillary-supporting unions and major donors -- is spending $700,000 on a new ad in Indiana targeting Obama on the economy, the ALP's spokesperson just confirmed to me.

The spokesperson, Jason Kinney, says that the new ad will be "similar in content and tone" to a recent ALP spot hitting Obama hard on health care -- only this time, the ad "will be focused on jobs."

Kinney, who happens to be an Indiana native, says that this will be the "largest ad buy we've done to date," adding that this is something they had long expected, because Indiana has been hit so hard by job loss.

"Indiana has long been ground zero for economic anxiety," Kinney said.

Kinney confirms that the money will pay for the ad to be shown on "broadcast and cable in nearly every market" between tomorrow and next Monday or Tuesday.

Kinney confirms that the group is also likely to add more money to air a version of the health-care spot in Indiana, although the details of that buy aren't yet available. He also says that the group is thinking about funding ads in North Carolina.

Kinney declined to share details of the new spot on jobs. We'll bring it to you as soon as we can get it.

A new poll from the University of Wisconsin finds Barack Obama running stronger than Hillary Clinton for the general election in this battleground state:

Obama (D) 47%, McCain (R) 43%
McCain (R) 47%, Clinton (D) 41%

The Clinton campaign will often point to swing states where they have polled better than Obama, such as Pennsylvania. As this poll demonstrates, however, they both have their fair share of better states.

Barack Obama has now officially surpassed Hillary Clinton in securing support from their fellow Senators, with New Mexico's Jeff Bingaman announcing his endorsement in an Obama campaign press release.

By our count, Hillary has the endorsements and/or super-delegate votes of 14 other Senators, compared to 15 for Obama.

Adam Green, a spokesperson for MoveOn, a major Obama supporter, has just hit the Illinois Senator hard for his Fox appearance in a piece for The Huffington Post:

It was a mistake for Obama to go on FOX's Sunday show and treat the experience as if it was a real news interview. Democratic politicians need to understand that FOX is a Republican mouthpiece masquerading as a news outlet. When dealing with FOX, you either burn them or they will burn you...

FOX's power lies not in its audience size -- which is puny and consists mostly of unpersuadable voters. Instead, FOX's power comes from tricking politicians and real journalists into treating their "breaking stories" like real news, thereby propelling smears like the Swift Boats and Rev. Wright into the mainstream political dialogue. That's why progressives fought (successfully) last year to deprive FOX of the legitimacy that comes with hosting a Democratic presidential debate. And that's why Democratic politicians should never treat FOX like a real news outlet -- including FOX's Sunday show.

The MoveOn spokesperson also points to the Obama senior adviser's suggestion to this site that Obama was going on to "take Fox on":

Barack Obama's campaign made a promise before this weekend's appearance. They said he would "take Fox on" -- inspiring hope among those who watched Bill Clinton in 2006, Chris Dodd in 2007, and progressive activist Lee Camp in 2008 delegitimize FOX on the air. But Obama didn't do that, and he suffered as a result.

Hard to miss the mention of Bill's now-infamous episode, in which he took on the very same Fox anchor -- Chris Wallace -- that Obama was interviewed by yesterday.

Green just confirmed to me that this is MoveOn's official statement on this matter. The rest here.

Late Update: Markos agrees.

Look out, North Carolina: The anti-Obama ad created by the state GOP, centering around Jeremiah Wright, is set to run starting tomorrow, a spokesperson for the North Carolina party just confirmed to me.

State party communications director Brent Woodcox told Election Central that party chair Linda Daves was not discouraged by John McCain's pronouncements last week that the ad shouldn't run. "She just feels that she's going along two parallel roads," said Woodcox. "This is a state party issue, and this is the right judgment call for our state party."

The ad will be running on four stations: WECT, the NBC affiliate in Wilmington; WCTI, the ABC affiliate in Greenville; WLOS, the ABC affiliate in Asheville; and WXII, the NBC affiliate in Greensboro.

However, the ad will probably not be shown too extensively -- Woodcox said the ad buy will only be between $10,000 and $20,000.

In the wake of Jeremiah Wright's sudden reappearance in the presidential race today, Hillary chief strategist Geoff Garin was just asked on MSNBC whether Obama should do more to distance himself from the controversial pastor.

"Senator Obama has said what he has to say," Garin said, adding: "We respect the fact that Senator Obama has had his say on this and the campaign should move on."

Hillary, too, was asked about Wright today by reporters. While she took the opportunity to remind all of us of her earlier declaration that she would not have kept Wright as her pastor, she called on John McCain to get the North Carolina GOP not to run the ad hitting Obama over this:

"I have said that that that was a personal decision of his. I answered one question about it that made it clear I would not have stayed in that church under those circumstances," Clinton told reporters in Graham, NC.

"But, I regret the efforts by the Republicans to politicize this matter and I believe that if Senator McCain were serious he would do more than just send a letter he is the putative nominee I think he could very clearly tell the North Carolina party tell the Mississippi party that he would not tolerate those kinds of advertisements and I'm waiting to see if he does that."

Make no mistake about this. One thing that makes Wright's reappearance particularly dicey for Camp Obama is the fact that he's resurfaced totally on his own initiative.

Even if the Clinton camp were inclined to continue making a public issue of this -- as opposed to merely discussing Wright privately with super-dels -- the last day they'd want to do that is today, of all days, when he's happily plastered himself all over the news.

The new survey of North Carolina by Public Policy Polling (D) shows Barack Obama ahead for next Tuesday's primary -- but his lead has significantly decreased in a contest where the expectations game demands he win big.

The numbers, compared to a week ago:

Obama 51% (-6)
Clinton 39% (+7)

Hillary Clinton is hoping to make a it a close contest here, in order to demonstrate that she can compete on Obama's favorable turf and thus make her case stick that he is politically weak.

If the Indiana primary could end up being the tiebreaker in the Democratic race, a possibility that Barack Obama alluded to a few weeks ago, the latest SurveyUSA poll gives Hillary Clinton some good news with a nine-point lead -- but on the other hand, Obama is closing the gap.

The numbers, compared to two weeks ago:

Clinton 52% (-4)
Obama 43% (+4)

From the internals: Clinton leads 55%-41% with women voters, and edges Obama 48%-46% among men.

Other recent polls have shown this to be a closer race, or even put Obama narrowly ahead. The state votes next week, in a race that could determine whether Barack Obama sews up the nomination or Hillary Clinton keeps the clock running.

A new AP/Ipsos poll shows Hillary Clinton performing better than Barack Obama in a national match-up against John McCain:

Clinton (D) 50%, McCain (R) 41%
Obama (D) 46%, McCain (R) 44%

For comparison, here's the previous AP/Ipsos poll from April 10:

Clinton (D) 48%, McCain (R) 45%
Obama (D) 45%, McCain (R) 45%

While the movement for the individual candidates is not statistically significant, it nevertheless shows some potential bounce in Hillary's favor since her Pennsylvania win -- something that is likely to be touted by her campaign.

That's the finding of a new Rasmussen poll released today: It says that 34% of Dems nationwide think she should bail.

That's only up two points since earlier in April, but it's up 12 from March, so the number is clearly growing. Meanwhile, twenty-two percent of Dems think Obama should drop out.

Perhaps not surprisingly, a large majority of Obama supporters -- 65% -- think she should drop out, while only half of Hillary supporters say he should go.

Separately, another Rasmussen poll finds that Republicans are growing more confident about taking on Obama this fall -- only 37% think he'd be the tougher opponent, down sharply from 54% earlier this month. Thirty-five percent of GOPers think she'd be the tougher foe, up from 20%.

It seems likely that these numbers are the result of the constant media discussion of Obama's difficulties with blue-collar voters, as well as her large win in Pennsylvania. The reappearance of Jeremiah Wright in the news -- with no assist from the Hillary campaign -- probably won't help matters in this regard.

In the latest sign that the Dem primary is basically deadlocked -- in some polls, if not in the pledged del or popular vote count -- the latest Gallup tracking poll finds that Hillary and Obama have been dead even nationally for two days now.

They're tied at 47%. This finding represents the second set of numbers taken since the Pennsylvania primary, suggesting that her victory has for the moment resulted in Dems being divided right down the middle.

Meanwhile, the latest CNN "poll of polls", which was released Friday, finds the two deadlocked in Indiana, too. Both have 45% of likely Dem voters.

Late Update: Of course, Pollster.com's average of national polls puts Obama up by roughly nine points.

Late Late Update: Obama leads 49%-41% in today's Rasmussen tracking poll.

With the Hillary campaign portraying Obama almost daily as culturally out of touch with blue collar folks, a debate is unfolding inside Camp Obama as to how he can improve his efforts with those voters:

In strategy sessions last week, advisers concluded that Mr. Obama, of Illinois, needed to do a better job reminding voters of his biography, including his modest upbringing by a single mother and one of his first jobs as a community organizer helping displaced steel mill workers. He also has to sharpen his economic message, they said, to improve his appeal and connection with voters in hope of capitalizing on the sensibilities that served him well in Midwestern states.

Mr. Obama's advisers are also debating whether he should give another major speech intended to lay out themes of his candidacy -- particularly the change he would bring to Washington -- that they fear have been muddled in one of the toughest months of his campaign.

As a result, Obama advisers are viewing Indiana as crucial in not one, but two respects. A win there could trigger more super-del movement towards him. But perhaps more importantly, it could take the steam out of Hillary's efforts to use his difficulties with blue collar whites to paint him as borderline unelectable.

Howard Dean, on ABC this morning, makes it absolutely clear that he and all the other "party elders" want the race to end well in advance of the convention:

"The rules say [superdelegates] can make up their mind in August if they want to, but there are a lot of Democrats myself included, Senator Reid, Speaker Pelosi, and many many others who understand that we want the voters to have their say, that's over on June 3rd, and then the unpledged delegates really have got to make up their mind.

"None of the so-called party elders that I've talked to thought that this should go to the convention and I agree with that."

This is likely to provoke more anger from Hillary's major supporters, who have expressed fury at Dean for statements like this, which they characterize as meddling in the Dem primary.

Either way, Dean appears to be suggesting that it's likely that party elders will step in after the voting and try to engineer a movement of super-dels to the perceived winner.

Hillary, clearly, is hoping to be able to argue that by some metric or other she won the popular vote, in order to obscure perceptions of who won, hence turning the contest into a battle for super-del support. But if Obama wins the pledged del count, as expected, it doesn't appear likely that party elders will stand idly by while that happens, if these comments from Dean are any indication.

Late Update: Here's the video:

Although House GOPers lag behind by most traditional measurements in their effort to take back the House -- money, poll numbers, candidates recruitment, etc. -- they are taking some consolation in the divisive Democratic primary potentially discouraging Dem voters.

"One side is going to be sorely disappointed when the other side wins," House Minority Leader John Boehner (R-OH) told reporters at a breakfast this month. "The longer this goes on, the more disappointed voters there will be. Frankly, that's one cause for my optimism."

A new attack ad in the Mississippi special House election, which has become unexpectedly close, is an early GOP experiment in using Barack Obama as a negative name in red districts:

"Travis Childers: He took Obama's endorsement over our conservative values," the announcer says gravely. "Conservatives just can't trust Travis Childers."

Hitting Obama could be a safe bet in this district, even among Democratic-leaning voters -- even though Obama won the statewide Democratic primary in a landslide, he actually lost this area to Hillary Clinton in a racially-polarized result.

John McCain is reversing his previous view that he wouldn't make an issue of the Jeremiah Wright controversy -- and claiming the blessing of Barack Obama himself in calling it a real political issue.

"I have said that I will not ... have any comment on it and that's because I thought and I believe that Sen. Obama does not share those views," McCain said. "But Sen. Obama himself says it's a legitimate political issue, so I would imagine that many other people will share that view, and it'll be in the arena."

Here the full context of what Obama said on Fox News Sunday, via Nexis:

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

JEREMIAH WRIGHT: I felt it was unfair. I felt it was unjust. I felt it was untrue. I felt that those who were doing that were doing it for some devious reasons.

(END VIDEO CLIP) WALLACE: Question: Do you think that Reverend Wright is just the victim here?

OBAMA: No. I think that people were legitimately offended by some of the comments that he had made in the past. The fact he's my former pastor I think makes it a legitimate political issue. So I understand that.

I think that it is also true that to run a snippet of 30-second sound bites, selecting out of a 30-year career, simplified and caricatured him and caricatured the church.

The Democratic National Committee has announced a new ad against John McCain, set to air on national cable TV. Their previous ad took McCain on regarding the economy, while this one goes after him for Iraq -- specifically his comment about staying "maybe a hundred" years over there:

Meanwhile, the Republican National Committee said in a press release that not only is this ad false, but it constitutes coordination with Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama: "This morning we saw yet another advertisement being announced by the Democrat National Committee which is not only illegal, but a complete distortion of Senator McCain's comments and record."

The Fox News Sunday interview is over. And Obama didn't take on Fox at all in any meaningful sense.

On Friday, a senior Obama adviser responded to criticism of his decision to go on Fox with a bunch of tough talk, saying that Obama knew full well that Fox has been at the forefront of spreading "the most specious of rumors" (i.e., lies) about Obama and vowing that he would "take Fox on."

Well, it didn't happen. Obama definitely pushed back hard on some of Chris Wallace's questions, but at no point did he draw attention to Fox's spreading of lies about him or critique the network in a general sense.

Obama had a perfect opening to do this, too. Wallace pressed him repeatedly about Jeremiah Wright and the bogus "flag pin" nonsense -- a perfect set-up for Obama to point out that Fox had obsessed about both these issues to an obscene degree and that Fox had been at the forefront of spreading the Obama-is-a-Muslim lies.

To be clear, Obama wasn't obliged to go after Fox. But a senior adviser said Obama would, as a way of quieting criticism of him. And he didn't.

This will likely further dismay liberal bloggers who had worked very hard to get Dems to boycott Fox as a way of deligitimizing the network and who already criticized Obama for agreeing to appear in the first place.

Obama turned in a perfectly solid performance. He probably succeeded in making a positive impression on many voters he might otherwise not have reached. But the broadcast was clearly a big victory for Fox and Chris Wallace, too.

Indeed, at the very end of the interview, Wallace told Obama to not "be a stranger." Obama's response:

"I won't."

Late Update: Matt Stoller has some strong criticism of Obama's appearance.

Late Late Update: Several of you are arguing that there was something ambiguous about what the senior Obama adviser said on Friday. Here's what the adviser said:

"He is going on their Sunday show to take Fox on..."

Keep in mind that this adviser said this specifically to mollify critics who worried that Obama's decision to appear on Fox would help legitimize the network and hence hurt Dems overall. There's no ambiguity here to speak of: The adviser was telling these critics not to worry, that the reason Obama was going on was to "take Fox on."

And this just didn't happen in any meaningful sense. When Wallace brought up Wright and the flag-pin, for instance, Obama didn't point out that these bogus stories have been pushed relentlessly by Fox or that the network has pushed the Obama-is-a-Muslim lies. Again: Obama was not obliged to take on the network. But either way, the bottom line is that he didn't do it. Partly because of this, the interview -- which was a solid performance by Obama -- was also a victory for Fox.

In his interview with Fox News Sunday, which is airing right now, Obama said flatly that he didn't think there's been a deliberate effort by the Clintons to racialize the campaign.

Obama was asked by Fox's Chris Wallace whether he agreed with James Clyburn's recent criticism of Bill Clinton on this score, or whether he thinks there's been a deliberate effort by the Clintons in general to play the "race card" in the campaign.

"I don't think there's been a deliberate effort," Obama said, adding that he takes the former President "at his word."

Pressed by Wallace on whether Bill's South Carolina comparison of Obama to Jesse Jackson constituted racializing the campaign, the furthest Obama would go was to say that Bill was "somewhat dismissive."

Separately, recall that a senior Obama adviser promised that Obama would "take Fox on" in today's interview. It hasn't happened yet, but stay tuned.