In a further indication that the Democrats are well-positioned to expand their House majority this November, Democrat Don Cazayoux has won a special election tonight for a Louisiana seat that has been in Republican hands for over 30 years.
With 99% of precincts reporting, Cazayoux leads with 49,371 votes, or 49% of the vote, followed by Republican Woody Jenkins at 46,554 votes, or 46%. In a district that voted 59% for President Bush in 2004, that is simply a stunning result.
This is on top of another big Democratic pick-up two months ago, when Bill Foster (D-IL) won the suburban Illinois seat of former GOP Speaker Dennis Hastert.
In short, this year isn't going very well so far for the NRCC.
Barack Obama is putting his financial advantages over Hillary Clinton to good use in Indiana and North Carolina, with two-minute ads set to air in each state to close out the primary campaigns there.
The ads are essentially the same for each state, talking about Obama's biography, concern with jobs and economic issues, and a commitment to telling people the truth -- with a particular focus on attacking Hillary Clinton's gas tax proposal, essentially saying that the plan is the opposite of straight talk.
Here's the Indiana version:
The North Carolina localized version is available after the jump.
It's only mid-afternoon on a Saturday, but four super-delegates endorsements have already come out:
• In New Mexico, where Hillary Clinton very narrowly won the party-run primary on Super Tuesday, state party chair Brian Colón has endorsed Barack Obama.
• In South Carolina, former state superintendent Inez Tenenbaum, an Obama supporter, won the add-on slot in a state where he won the primary by a landslide.
• In Maryland, where Obama won the primary by a wide margin but the state party establishment has supported Clinton, the state party committee selected one Obama-supporter, former Gov. Parris Glendening, and one Hillary-backer, former Lt. Gov. Kathleen Kennedy Townsend, to fill their two add-on slots.
The opposite scenario -- a state where Clinton won, but many state party leaders back Obama and have it in their power to control the add-on seats -- will be coming up next Saturday in Massachusetts. It will be interesting to see what happens then.
A new Rasmussen poll of Oregon give Barack Obama a double-digit lead in this May 20 contest:
Obama 51%
Clinton 39%
Sample size: 867 likely primary voters.
Margin of error: ±3%
The internals show a class divide here: Obama does best among upper-income voters, while Clinton does best among those earning less than $40,000 per year.
This morning's Zogby tracking polls show Barack Obama's lead in North Carolina slipping into the single digits, consistent with other polls, while also showing a tight race in Indiana. The numbers, compared to yesterday:
North Carolina
Obama 46% (-4)
Clinton 37% (+3)
Sample size: 627 likely primary voters, weighted for region, age, race and gender.
Margin of error: ±4%.
Indiana
Obama 43% (+1)
Clinton 42% (+0)
Sample size: 629 likely primary voters, weighted for region, age, race and gender.
Margin of error: ±4%.
Democrats have a big opportunity to expand their House majority today, and in a very unlikely place. The special election in Louisiana's Sixth District -- which gave 59% of its vote to President Bush in 2004 -- is being held today with Democrat Don Cazayoux favored to beat controversial Republican Woody Jenkins.
The GOP undertook an effort in the home stretch to tie Cazayoux, a social conservative, to the national party in general and Barack Obama in particular as an early experiment in using the Democratic frontrunner as a cudgel against down-ticket Democrats.
However, a Republican source tells TPM Election Central that while the ad has actually had some success, there isn't much optimism that it will be enough to pull Jenkins through: "Cazayoux's negatives have certainly gone up, but the question is whether or not it's been enough to make Woody Jenkins a viable alternative."
Hillary Clinton has a new ad in Oregon, a largely positive spot in which she re-introduces herself to a state that will vote May 20:
"It's going to take a fighter to meet these challenges," Clinton says, invoking her theme that she's the one who will get things done. "If you give me the chance, together we'll turn our country around."
Meanwhile, Clinton has picked up a new super-delegate, Jaime Gonzalez of Texas.
I've just obtained a copy of another ad hitting Obama on the gas tax that Hillary just started airing in Indiana.
The last-minute ad, which went up late on the Friday before election day, says Hillary's gas tax holiday would "save families $8 billion," and adds: "Barack Obama says that's just pennies."
"He'd make you keep paying that tax, instead of big oil," the ad continues.
The "just pennies" Obama quote comes from an Obama response ad that says that the gas tax holiday would save Indiana residents "just pennies a day."
As noted here before, Hillary chief strategist Geoff Garin has said the campaign's internal polling indicates that the gas tax holiday is persuading Hoosiers that she is in touch with their economic anxieties. This second ad suggests they're sticking with this all the way through election day.
The Obama campaign moved to engage Hillary more directly in the gas tax dispute today, issuing a second ad hitting back at her criticism of him on it. Now Hillary has hit back again.
Attack ads are common in politics, but it's not everyday that a spot ties a conservative candidate in a key race to forced abortions -- in this case involving TPMmuckraker "star" Bob Schaffer and the Marianas sweatshops.
This new third-party ad in the open Colorado Senate race was created by pro-campaign finance reform group Campaign Money Watch, and is set to air in the socially conservative Colorado Springs media market over the next two weeks. Its emphasis on the forced abortions in the Marianas seems clearly designed to alienate Schaffer from the GOP's Christian conservative base:
"Schaffer was supposed to be investigating sweatshops, where women workers were forced to have abortions," the voiceover says. "But he says, 'I did not observe a forced abortion.'"
Here's a bit more evidence that Hillary's insistence that members of Congress declare whether they're "with us or against us" on her gas tax holiday proposal risks causing friction with them at a time when she's courting them as super-delegates.
Rep. Mark Udall, who's running for Senate in Colorado and is undecided in the presidential race, has just come out against the proposal in very strong terms indeed:
"Senator Clinton claimed yesterday that I either stand with her on this proposal or stand with the oil companies. To that I say: I stand with the families of Colorado, who aren't looking for bumper sticker fixes that don't fix anything, but for meaningful change that brings real relief and a new direction for our energy policy. We can't afford more Washington-style pandering while families keep getting squeezed.
"It is exactly the kind of short-sighted Washington game that keeps us from getting real results to our energy problem."
Coming from a key undecided super-delegate, that's some harsh language. And it bears a striking resemblance to Obama's criticism of her proposal, too.
Hillary spokesperson Howard Wolfson, on a conference call with reporters moments ago, confirmed that she'd be going forward with her plan to introduce the gas tax holiday legislation.
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi opposes the proposal, so there's very little chance it will ever come to a vote, at least in the House. If it did, however, it could put members of Congress -- the same ones who are also super-delegates being courted by Hillary -- in a bit of a spot.
The Hillary campaign has hit back at former DNC chair Joe Andrew's surprise switch to Obama yesterday, releasing a letter from eight former DNC chairs that makes the "electability" case for Hillary.
Intriguingly, the letter states flatly that "Hillary can win our Party's nomination." But it doesn't say how this can happen, beyond saying that she's strong in Indiana and North Carolina, that her campaign is pumping at full capacity in remaining states, and that record turnout is expected in them.
In other words, the letter doesn't address whether she can catch Obama in the pledged del count or even in the popular vote.
A couple of the former DNC chairs are already known high-profile Hillary supporters, such as Terry McAuliffe and Ed Rendell. Full letter after the jump.
Late Update: It's actually seven former chairs and the family of the late Ron Brown.
The big-money conservative third-party group Freedom's Watch is apparently desperate to hang on to a GOP House seat that is in danger despite being in a deep-red district.
In their latest gambit, Freedom's Watch didn't even try in their new attack ad to back up a key accusation against Don Cazayoux, the Dem candidate in tomorrow's closely-watched Louisiana special election for Congress. And in response, one local station pulled the ad from the air.
Here's the ad, which got taken off the air by Baton Rouge's CBS affiliate:
The Cazayoux campaign complained that there was no evidence at all that he supports benefits for illegal immigrants, and his true position is just the opposite -- indeed, they noted, the ad doesn't actually offer any sort of citation or other piece of evidence.
The battle between the two Dems over the "gas tax holiday" heated up on the trail today over Hillary's assertion that she was going to propose gas-tax-holiday legislation to see if members of Congress are "with us or against us" in battling the oil companies.
Obama claimed today that the "with us or against us" language had been borrowed from President Bush -- fightin' words indeed in a Dem primary.
Here's some audio of Hillary saying this on the trail last night...
Hillary, speaking of members of Congress, said: "I want them to tell us, are they with us or against us when it comes to taking on the oil companies?"
Hillary's throwing down of the gauntlet here could increase pressure on members of Congress -- who are also the super-delegates she's courting -- to take a position on the gas tax.
Obama has decided to engage Hillary more directly in the gas-tax-holiday fight, releasing a second ad today responding to her earlier ad hitting him for his refusal to embrace the idea. And on the trail this morning, Obama sought to ridicule her remarks.
"She even borrowed one of President Bush's favorite phrases, and said that every member of Congress had to tell her -- `are they with us or against us?' Obama said.
It's unclear as yet how the issue is cutting politically in Indiana. Obama's decision to engage the issue more forcefully is inconclusive on this question. It could either reflect a belief that she's got him on the defensive on the issue, or a belief that it makes it easier to cast her as a pandering politician, or a bit of both.
For their part, the Hillary campaign says that their internal polling shows that her gas-tax-holiday talk is persuading working people that she identifies with the economic strain they're suffering. Full transcript of Hillary's remarks after the jump.
Yet another poll shows the North Carolina primary turning into a single-digit race. The latest numbers from Rasmussen, compared to their previous poll from three days ago:
Obama 49% (-2) Clinton 40% (+3)
The internals show Obama winning black voters 74%-10%, while Clinton is ahead 58%-35% with whites. With Obama dogged by the Jeremiah Wright story, 43% believe he distanced himself from Wright out of genuine outrage, versus 40% who say he was politically motivated.
Meanwhile, a new Gallup national poll finds a 62%-30% majority of Democrats saying the long nomination battle is doing more harm than good for the party, contrary to the Clinton campaign' insistence that most Dems view it as a good thing.
Hillary, breaking with the time-honored (and unbearably hackneyed) tradition of depressing expectations in advance of elections, says on the trail today that she extremely bullish on her chances this coming Tuesday
"This primary election on Tuesday is a game changer. This is going to make a huge difference in what happens going forward. The entire country -- probably even a lot of the world -- is looking to see what North Carolina decides."
My understanding of the thinking inside Camp Hillary is that their best hope has been that Tuesday's voting in North Carolina and Indiana will end up effectively being a wash. In other words, Hillaryland insiders are hoping that keeping it close enough in North Carolina while winning Indiana would limit Obama's popular vote gains enough to make a popular vote win (counting Florida) still within the realm of possibility.
Keeping it close in North Carolina would also allow Hillary to argue that not only has she bested him in big industrial states, but she's also proven she can compete on his turf, too. That would allow her to further the "Obama keeps proving to be unexpectedly weak" storyline.
Predicting that Tuesday's voting will prove a "game-changer," however, would seem to be inflating expecations well beyond what I've understood to be Hillaryland's best case scenario for May 6th.
A Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey found that just 30% of the nation's Likely Voters believe Barack Obama denounced his former Pastor, Jeremiah Wright, because he was outraged. Most -- 58% -- say he denounced the Pastor for political convenience.
Rasmussen also says that "Democrats are evenly divided as to whether or not Obama was surprised by Wright's comments on Monday." Rasmussen adds that "just 36% of Democrats believe outrage was the motivation," but doesn't supply a number for the percentage of Dems who believe he was outraged.
The Obama campaign goes up on the air in Indiana with an ad attacking Hillary over her earlier spot attacking him for opposing a so-called "gas tax holiday."...
Obama already released an earlier response ad on the gas tax dispute. The Hillary camp is still up with their spot in Indiana and North Carolina.
As I reported yesterday, Hillary senior adviser Geoff Garin claims that the Hillary campaign's internal polling shows that her attacks on Obama -- should we call them "gas attacks"? -- are working politically.
The fact that Obama has a second response ad up suggests either that there may be something to this -- or that Hillary's backing for the gas tax holiday are backfiring for Hillary and that the Obama campaign is looking to maximize this.
Indiana's largest newspaper, the Indianapolis Star, has endorsed Hillary Clinton in Tuesday's primary, saying that she "offers a clear-eyed view of the way things are," and "nuanced positions on how to address the war in Iraq, trade with China and economic expansion."
However, it's unclear if any newspaper endorsement has really had an effect in this cycle. For example, Barack Obama won practically all the major newspaper endorsements in California and Pennsylvania, but lost those primaries by substantial margins.
In a good sign for Democratic efforts to expand their Senate majority this year, a new Rasmussen poll of the New Hampshire Senate race finds former Democratic Gov. Jeanne Shaheen ahead of GOP Sen. John Sununu, who narrowly defeated her back in 2002.
The numbers, compared to the last poll from a month ago:
Shaheen 51% (+2)
Sununu 43% (+2)
Sample size: 500 likely voters
Margin of error: ±4%
Shaheen has consistently led in polls since even before she announced her candidacy, making Sununu the single most vulnerable incumbent Senator from either party this year.
A new SurveyUSA poll of Oregon shows Barack Obama ahead in this upcoming primary, but the result is within the margin of error. The numbers, compared to the previous poll from April 7:
Obama 50% (-2)
Clinton 44% (+4)
Sample size: 650 likely primary voters.
Margin of error: ±3.9%
The Oregon primary will be held on May 20, the same day as the Kentucky primary, which Obama looks likely to lose by a wide margin.
A new Research 2000 poll of North Carolina gives Barack Obama a seven-point lead here, with over 50% support but just inside the margin of error in a state where he needs a landslide:
Obama will need a big win in North Carolina, as he went in to the state as the undisputed frontrunner only to see HIllary Clinton make a major play for it, and most polls have seen the margin significantly narrow since the re-emergence of Jeremiah Wright.
SEIU spokesperson Stephanie Mueller confirmed the half-million dollar buy, which isn't reflected in FEC filings yet.
This comes only hours after the American Leadership Project, the 527 put together by pro-Hillary unions and major donors, dropped another $200,000 on its ad hitting Obama on the economy, as we reported below. That brings ALP's total expenditure on the anti-Obama ad to $1.1 million.
All the outside cash flowing into the race is yet another sign of just how high the stakes in Indiana are seen to be by allies of both candidates.
Separately, SEIU also spent a startling $1.5 million on airtime today for an Ohio ad hitting John McCain over health care, FEC filings show -- meaning that the union's spending in the presidential race has hit $2 million for today alone.
Barack Obama is suffering a serious erosion in his support among white working class Dem primary voters, the new Pew Research poll finds.
A month ago, Hillary held a 50%-40% advantage among white Democratic voters with a high school degree or less. Today, after the Pennsylvania result and the latest flare-up by Jeremiah Wright, it's a 65%-25% win for Hillary among this same group.
Among white Dems making less than $50,000 per year, Hillary leads 58%-34%, up from a 47%-45% lead a month ago.
Pew still has Obama ahead in a statistical dead heat with a 47%-45% lead, but that's down from his 49%-39% lead last month. (Sample size: 651 Democratic voters and Dem-leaners. Margin of error: ±4.5%)
The American Leadership Project -- the 527 put together by big Hillary-backing unions and major donors -- sank another $200,000 today into the ad they're running in Indiana attacking Obama on the economy, ALP spokesperson Jason Kinney just confirmed to me.
That brings the total spent on the ad to $1.1 million, Kinney says.
The initial buy on the ad was $700,000. The group dumped another $220,000 into the buy yesterday, and added the $200,000 more today.
Kinney says today's spending was designed to beef up the ad's rotation in the Indianapolis market.
The massive total expenditure -- by far the group's biggest buy yet -- underscores yet again the extent to which Hillary allies view Indiana as an absolute must-win.
A bit of an odd exchange on MSNBC just now: Howard Wolfson was asked by Andrea Mitchell to respond to former DNC chair Joe Andrew's switch to Obama.
Wolfson seemed to suggest that Andrew isn't really from Indiana, but Hillary is really from New York...
Wolfson: Well, I'm not sure by the way that he's actually from Indiana. I know he's originally from Indiana, but --
Mitchell: Well it's sort of like Hillary Clinton being from Illinois, or New York, or Scranton, or Arkansas --
Wolfson: No, she lives in New York, and so when she -- she's a senator from New York, so she's from New York.
Parsing this a bit, it would appear to mean that you're not actually from a state if you were born there, but you are from a state if you moved there in your early fifties to get elected Senator.
A new poll of Indiana from local firm TeleResearch further suggests that Jeremiah Wright has been hurting Barack Obama over the last few days. The top-line result is Hillary 48%, Obama 38%.
But it's in the internals that things get very interesting.
Hillary just picked up four new super-dels -- so-called "add ons" that were selected by the New York state party today.
The four, according to her campaign, are: Andrew Cuomo, Thomas DiNapoli, C. Virginia Field and Carmen Arroyo.
Separately, the Obama camp announced a new super-del today: Texas DNC Member John Patrick.
Between these, an earlier Connecticut super-del for Hillary, the Joe Andrew switch to Obama, and the three Illinois add-ons for Obama announced earlier, that brings the daily tally to this:
Obama netted five super-dels; Hillary netted four.
Late Update: The Obama camp says he's 283 overall delegates from winning the nomination.
I've been meaning for some time to make a quick point about some of the real reasons that many super-delegates have been reluctant to choose sides in the Dem primary fight.
Some super-dels -- in particular, those who are also current candidates for office -- don't want to pick either Hillary or Obama yet partly because they're reluctant to alienate the major donors who have lined up with the candidate they don't pick. That's because these super-dels are themselves hoping to raise money from those donors for their own campaigns.
This sort of explanation has been largely absent from the discussion about the super-dels. Their reluctance to decide between the two Dems is almost always framed as an inability to decide based on the actual merits of each of the candidates.
In fact, as Dem donors who have privately discussed the situation with super-dels tell me, the super-dels are also largely driven by constraints on their local political situation -- constraints such as this fear of alienating big-money people in the party.
Just something worth being aware of as this bizarre and convoluted process continues to unfold.
Is Hillary gaining politically by her support for a so-called "gas tax holiday"?
On a conference call with reporters just now, Hillary chief strategist Geoff Garin claimed that the campaign's internal polling shows that it is.
"We're seeing in our polling that working people appreciate the fact that Senator Clinton understands the incredible economic strain they are facing," Garin said.
Also, Garin sought to spin one of the main arguments against the gas tax holiday -- the fact that it saves consumers a negligible amount on average -- as a further sign that Hillary's in touch with blue-collar workers.
"It may not seem like a lot to some people," Garin said, adding that "every penny counts."
The fact that Hillary supports the gas tax holiday because she understands that the meager average savings involved do matter to ordinary folks is likely to be core Hillary spin as the gas tax argument continues to unfold.
As for Garin's assertion that this dispute is helping her politically, we haven't seen this polled publicly yet, and it'll certainly be interesting to see what future polls show on this.
National Dems have just increased their chances at a major House pick-up this Fall, recruiting former Nevada state Senate minority leader and 2006 gubernatorial nominee Dina Titus to run against incumbent Republican Jon Porter in a key swing district.
It's yet another sign that national Dems are successfully using their advantages in fundraising to find more candidates and expand the playing field for the 2008 elections. Titus only narrowly lost her campaign for governor after starting out way behind, and the ethics scandals that have faced the new Governor Jim Gibbons could inspire some buyer's remorse in her favor.
The Obama campaign is working very hard today to maximize the impact of the big surprise endorsement they received today from former DNC chair Joe Andrew -- he's hitting no less than three Indiana media markets today.
Andrew, who is from Indiana himself, did a presser this morning in Indianapolis, and Obama aides tell me that he's doing in-person TV interviews this afternoon in both Evansville and Louisville. He'll be campaigning in the state for Obama tomorrow.
It's unclear what sort of impact Andrew can have here -- he briefly ran for governor in 2003 and is now a D.C. corporate lawyer. But the Andrew endorsement is no small thing, since it potentially demonstrates that the spate of bad news that's buffeted Obama of late hasn't stopped some establishment Dems from seeing him as the better nominee.
A new batch of polls from Quinnipiac University lends weight to Hillary Clinton's argument that she's more electable against McCain than Obama -- it finds that she handily beats McCain in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, while Obama only wins in one of the three:
Sample: 1,494 Florida voters. Margin of error: ±2.5%.
On the bright side for Obama, his showings in Florida and Pennsylvania have improved since the last poll from a month ago. However, Hillary is still outperforming him in all three states.
A new Mason-Dixon poll of North Carolina confirms that this has state's primary has turned into a very close contest: Obama 49%, Clinton 42, a result within the five-point margin of error among 400 likely Dem primary voters.
As little as a week ago, before the re-emergence of Jeremiah Wright, Obama had double-digit leads in nearly every survey. Now, they nearly all show it to be a very close contest. Also, this poll further shows how racially-polarized the campaign is in this state: Obama has the support of 87% of blacks, while Hillary has 62% of whites.
Hillary's up in North Carolina with an uplifting new spot designed to maximize one of her key endorsements in the state -- Governor Mike Easley, who describes her as "resilient" and "determined" and destined to be a "great president."...
With the switch of former DNC chair Joe Andrew from Hillary to Obama, he has now crept to within 20 super-dels of Hillary: She's got 267, while he's got 248.
The three he's going to get this weekend will bring him to 251.
The newest FEC filings show the extent to which the Congressional Democrats have been able to throw their financial advantage around this cycle and expand the playing field, with the DCCC now making a major investment in the nationally-watched Mississippi special election.
The DCCC put in over $700,000 yesterday on behalf of Democrat Travis Childers, bringing their total spending so far to about $1.1 million. By comparison, the NRCC has only been able to spend about $590,000 to play defense in a deep-red Southern district.
A new SurveyUSA poll in Louisiana shows Democrats on track to win this Saturday's special election to fill the vacancy of former Rep. Richard Baker (R), who resigned in February to become a lobbyist.
The poll shows conservative Democrat Don Cazayoux with 50% support, with 41% for GOP candidate Woody Jenkins, a longtime controversial fixture in Louisiana politics.
This seat has not been held by a Democrat since the 1970s, and the district voted 59% for President Bush in 2004, so a Dem win here would be big news indeed.
A new Rasmussen poll of Indiana gives Hillary Clinton a narrow lead here: Clinton 46%, Obama 41%, a result within the five-point margin of error.
The poll also further illustrates the degree to which the negative tone of the Democratic race has taken a toll on both candidates: Only about half of Clinton supporters have a favorable opinion of Obama, and the same goes for Obama supporters' views of Clinton.
Hillary Clinton has lost a super-delegate this morning in a defection over to Barack Obama, Joe Andrew of Indiana. And just to make it look worse for her, Andrew is a super-delegate by virtue of his service as DNC chairman during Bill's administration, but is now calling for the party to unite behind Obama.
"While I was hopeful that a long, contested primary season would invigorate our party, the polls show that the tone and temperature of the race is now hurting us," Andrew wrote in an open letter.
"John McCain, without doing much of anything, is now competitive against both of our remaining candidates. We are doing his work for him and distracting Americans from the issues that really affect all of our lives."
A new InsiderAdvantage poll of North Carolina is the first one yet to actually show Hillary Clinton ahead in the crucial primary, demonstrating just how badly the latest controversies have hurt Barack Obama. The numbers, compared to the firm's last poll from two weeks ago:
Clinton 44% (+8) Obama 42% (-9)
The pollster's analysis has this caveat: "Our polling generally does not indicate the eventual compression of black voters that Obama usually enjoys just before Election Day. If that happens, my guess is that he will pull this out. However, this poll is clearly an indication of reaction to the latest statements by his former pastor; and it forces Sen. Obama to split resources between Indiana and North Carolina."
