The attacks are flying fast in the Pennsylvania, with a new round of robocalls from the Hillary campaign going after Obama.

One call says: "Every gallon of gas takes over three bucks from your pocket. So, why would Barack Obama vote for a Bush-Cheney energy bill that has put six billion in the pockets of big oil? Enough talk. It's time for action."

And another: "Barack Obama's health care plan fails to deliver health care for every American, just what the HMO's and pharmaceutical companies want. What's more, Sen. Obama's healthcare plan imposes a $900 hidden tax on families. That's $900 more than anyone should have to pay to stay healthy."

A key military surrogate for Barack Obama went after Hillary Clinton on the Bosnia story today -- triggering an accusation of hypocrisy from the Hillary camp in light of Obama's own words about the controversy during this week's debate, when he said people should let the story go.

"One of the inherent duties of the president of the United States is to lay a wreath at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier on Memorial Day," said Gen. Walter Stewart on an Obama campaign conference call this afternoon -- then proceeding to lambast Hillary over the Bosnia gaffes. "Imagine the lack of moral authority she has now to lay a wreath at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier on Memorial Day."

Clinton spokesman Phil Singer immediately pounced: "When it comes to negative campaign tactics, Senator Obama has been a hypocrite from day one, decrying attack politics from one side of his mouth while he and his campaign wage a character assassination effort from the other."

Obama spokesman Hari Sevugan disassociated the campaign from Stewart's remarks: "We obviously do not agree with that sentiment."

Barack Obama has two new ads out for the home stretch in Pennsylvania, attacking Hillary Clinton on both her policies and her overall political character.

This one lists the newspapers endorsing Obama, quoting both their praise for his candidacy and their condemnations of his opponent:

And this one goes after her health plan:

Hillary Clinton has taken a one-point lead in today's Gallup poll. While it's not statistically significant, it's in fact the first time in a month that she's had any kind of lead in Gallup's tracker. Here are the numbers, compared to yesterday:

Clinton 46% (+2)
Obama 45% (-2)

Less than a week ago, Obama was enjoying an 11-point lead -- a sign that the rough debate on Wednesday might have combined with the "small town" controversy to drag his numbers down quite a bit.

Well, this should get anti-war voters angry with Hillary Clinton -- and be a real political headache for the home stretch in Pennsylvania.

The Huffington Post has gotten their hands on a secret tape from a closed-door fundraiser held just after Super Tuesday, in which Hillary lambastes "the activist base of the Democratic Party" and their views on national security:

"We have been less successful in caucuses because it brings out the activist base of the Democratic Party. MoveOn didn't even want us to go into Afghanistan. I mean, that's what we're dealing with. And you know they turn out in great numbers. And they are very driven by their view of our positions, and it's primarily national security and foreign policy that drives them. I don't agree with them. They know I don't agree with them. So they flood into these caucuses and dominate them and really intimidate people who actually show up to support me."

MoveOn executive director Eli Pariser has already responded in very strong terms:

Senator Clinton has her facts wrong again. MoveOn never opposed the war in Afghanistan, and we set the record straight years ago when Karl Rove made the same claim. Senator Clinton's attack on our members is divisive at a time when Democrats will soon need to unify to beat Senator McCain. MoveOn is 3.2 million reliable voters and volunteers who are an important part of any winning Democratic coalition in November. They deserve better than to be dismissed using Republican talking points.

A veritable super-delegate deluge...

After picking up the support of Ohio Rep. Betty Sutton today, Hillary adds two more super-dels, her campaign announces.

They are former New Jersey Governors Jim Florio and Brendan Byrne, who both threw their support to Hillary today after being picked yesterday as add-on super-delegates.

So, Hillary's total super-del haul today: Three.

The latest Associated Press tally of overall delegates:

Obama 1,645; Hillary 1,504.

Separately, the AP projects that when the voting is concluded, Obama is likely to be less than 100 delegates short of the 2,025 needed to clinch the nomination.

I'd been meaning to do this for a few days now, and this is as good a time as any. Here's the rundown of which Pennsylvania newspapers have endorsed whom...

Papers endorsing Obama:

The Philadelphia Inquirer

Citizen's Voice

The Scranton Times-Tribune

The Allentown Morning Call

The Patriot News

Bucks County Courier

Pittsburgh Post-Gazette

Philadelphia Daily News

Papers endorsing Hillary:

The Daily Pennsylvanian

For what it's worth.

On the heels of today's Gallup tracking poll finding the race tightening to within three points comes this new Newsweek poll finding that Obama is pulling away and now leads Hillary nationally by 19 points among registered Dems.

Here are the numbers, compared with the last Newsweek poll finding a statistical dead heat in March:

Obama 54% (45%)

Hillary 35% (44%)

One key finding with regard to the debate: The poll was taken on April 16th and 17th -- which is to say, on one day before the debate, and on one day after. And the Newsweek pollster says that there was no real shift in support from one day to the next.

Separately, nearly half (46%) of Dems say super-dels should use their own judgment in picking which candidate to support, while 38% want them to back the popular vote winner, and only 12% want them to pick the winner of the pledged del count.

As I've said here before, if Obama were to emerge as the clear winner of both the pledged del count and popular vote, these numbers might shift -- perhaps dramatically -- in his direction.

Hillary gets a super-del -- Ohio Rep. Betty Sutton, her campaign announces.

"On March 4th, the majority of Democratic voters in the 13th Congressional District and Ohio chose to support Senator Hillary Clinton with their vote," Sutton said, according to Camp Hillary's release. "As the Representative for Ohio's 13th Congressional District, I am pledging my support to her as well."

Okay -- this is as good a time to make this point as any.

One thing that's polluted this whole debate badly has been the constantly shifting definitions people have been employing for "will of the people." The Obama campaign has actually been largely consistent on this point, saying that the super-dels should follow the winner of the national pledged del count.

But many super-dels have decided whom to support based on other metrics. Some have backed the candidate who won his or her state. Others have endorsed the one who won a majority of his or her Congressional district. The super-dels are obviously free to employ whichever metric they wish. But this constantly shifting definition of "will of the people" has only contributed to the messiness and confusion surrounding the process, which is already screwed up enough as it is.

Two of Hillary Clinton's most prominent fundraisers tore into Howard Dean in interviews with me today, sharply criticizing the DNC chair for saying yesterday that super-delegates should say which Dem candidate they support "starting now."

"Governor Dean should do what he has said he will do -- refrain from injecting himself into the primary process, as millions of Democrats have yet to cast their votes," Hillary national finance chair Hassan Nemazee, one of the most influential fundraisers in the Democratic Party, told me today.

"If he wishes to do something productive," Nemazee continued, "he should exhibit the leadership necessary to resolve the Florida and Michigan impasse, which has disenfranchised millions of Democratic voters."

A second prominent Democratic fundraiser, Robert Zimmerman, a Democratic National Committeeman and key Hillary fundraiser, sounded a similar note in an interview with me today.

"Howard Dean is more committed to pressuring the super delegates to make up their minds before the voting is done than he is to ensuring that Michigan and Florida's votes are counted," Zimmerman charged.

He added that Dean could "best ensure that we have a strong Democratic nominee and a united party" by focusing on those two states, rather than pressuring super-dels.

It's unusual for major institutional players like Nemazee and Zimmerman to attack the party chair in such biting terms, and the comments represent the boiling over of tensions between Dean and top Hillary money people that have simmered out of view for weeks.

Read more »

Today's Gallup national tracking poll finds that the Democratic primary race has tightened, with Hillary closing to within three points -- a finding that the pollsters say provides indications that Wednesday's debate could be undermining Obama's support.

Gallup finds that Obama is leading Hillary 47%-44%, down from an 11 point lead earlier this week. Gallup adds that last night's interviewing is the first they did since the debate, concluding:

In Thursday night's interviewing, Clinton received a greater share of national Democratic support than Obama, the first time she has done so in an individual night's interviewing since April 3. That stronger showing for Clinton helped to snap Obama's streak of statistically significant leads in the three-day rolling averages Gallup reports each day. Until today, he had led Clinton by a statistically significant margin in each of the prior 11 Gallup releases.

The full impact of the debate -- and the ensuing media coverage of it -- will be apparent in the coming days, and it will soon be clear if the debate has produced a shift back to a more competitive race, or if Clinton may have received just a temporary boost in support.

Former Senators Sam Nunn and David Boren, in a joint statement, throw their support to Obama -- giving him two high-profile southerners that are both key foreign policy voices in the Democratic Party.

Both will serve on Obama's national security team, giving the Obama camp an effective weapon against the Hillary campaign's claims that Obama has not passed the "commander in chief test."

Their full statements after the jump.

Read more »

You may have forgotten that there's this other guy out there who's also running for President, and he happens to be the GOP nominee.

It's easy to lose sight of John McCain amid the constant crush of news about the Dem primary, but even as the Dems continue to bludgeon each other, McCain is quietly building up his campaign apparatus -- something we hope to be tracking here a bit more closely in the weeks ahead.

At any rate, there's a bit of McCain news today that you shouldn't miss:

* McCain released his tax returns, reporting an income of nearly $260,000 (not including that of his far richer wife). Hey, maybe that's a good "gotcha" question for George Stephanopoulos to ask McCain on Sunday -- why won't you release your heiress wife's tax returns?

* McCain continued building up his campaign today, adding a new pollster and a new campaign official to oversee the key battleground states of Pennsylvania and Ohio.

* Yet another national poll finds McCain closing the gap with the Dems.

Here, from Obama spokesperson Bill Burton, is the response to Hillary's criticism of the Illinois Senator this morning for "complaining" about Wednesday's debate...

"Considering the fact that Senator Clinton sat on stage at the last debate and complained to all of America that she always gets the first question, her blatant hypocrisy here is stunning. But if she'd rather spend her time talking about the same distractions and divisions that Washington is obsessed with, that's her business. Barack Obama believes the American people deserve a real debate issues that actually matter like health care, the economy, bringing this war to an end."

The Obama camp's rapid response crew also blasted out this YouTube of Hillary talking at the last debate about always getting the first question.

The new Rasmussen poll shows the Pennsylvania primary tightening -- here are the numbers, compared to last Monday:

Hillary 47% (50%)

Obama 44% (41%)

One interesting tidbit from the poll: A surprising 12% say something they saw in the debate caused them to change their mind about how they're voting. This is a bit of a murky stat, but taken with the tightening of the race it could be a sign that the debate may have played against Hillary.

However, the poll also finds that Obama's support "appears to be a bit softer" than Hillary's, with six percent of Obama backers saying there's a good chance they could change their minds, while only two percent of Hillary supporters say that.

Total undecided: Nine percent. Total who still might change their mind: 12%.

Total knowledge we have about what's going to happen on Tuesday: Zero.

According to his calender, John McCain will appear on This Week with George Stephanopoulos this Sunday.

Something tells me that a lot of people will be watching to see if Steph asks McCain tough "gotcha" questions designed to gauge his "electability" and his ability to handle future attacks, as he claimed to be doing at Wednesday's Dem debate.

Anyone offering odds?

Late Update: John Aravosis has a good list of questions Steph might ask McCain.

Hillary does local Philly TV this morning, and opens up a new line of attack against Obama for "complaining" about what happened at Wednesday's debate...

Key quote:

We were both asked some pretty tough questions. That's part of what happens in a debate and a campaign. And I know he spent all day yesterday complaining about the hard questions he was asked.

But you know, being asked tough questions in a debate is nothing like the pressures you face inside the White House. And in fact when the going gets tough you can't just walk away...

I think we need a president who can take whatever comes your way.

Note that this follows Bill's suggestion yesterday that Obama was "whining," and note that Hillary hit the word "complain" again later in the broadcast -- suggesting that the Clinton camp has settled on a message that it'll be hitting hard for the next few days.

We'll bring you Obama's response when we get it.

Late Update: The Obama camp responds.

Did Hillary get a bounce after Obama's rough night in the debate on Wednesday?

Not if you believe Zogby's tracking poll of Pennsylvania. It finds that yesterday Hillary edged up two points from Wednesday, the day of the debate, while Obama only lost one. She now leads by four points, 47%-43%.

One bright spot for Hillary that could have something to do with Obama's "small town" comments: Zogby found that 56% say Hillary better understands the state, while only 28% -- half as many -- said the same of Obama.

Still, if Zogby is to be believed, the numbers are way too close for comfort for Hillary.

Curious to know more about the 25 Dean-appointed members of the convention credentials committee members who, if the race goes all the way to the convention, could decide Hillary's fate?

Meet them all right here.

My understanding of this suggests that it's unlikely that there will be a showdown on the credentials committee, however. It's unlikely that the credentials committee will vote on a proposal to settle the Michigan and Florida delegation problem that is flatly opposed by either candidate.

What's more, it's unlikely that in the end Hillary forces on the committee will bring a minority report to the floor if they oppose the majority-agreed-upon decision, because it would be all but certain to fail and she'd be blamed for the ensuing mess. But it's theoretically possible that it could play out this way, of course.

Here's a very useful roundup of today's super-delegate news.

Many super-dels are unswayed either by Hillary's arguments about Obama's supposed electability problem -- but some also are unswayed by the Obama camp's argument that her high unfavorables render her problematic, too.

And despite Howard Dean's demand that the super-dels start picking sides right now, dozens of them say they feel no rush to pick sides before the voting is over.

More super-del tidbits here.

Stephen Colbert had three very special guests tonight: Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama and John Edwards. Clinton and Edwards were in the studio, and Obama appeared via satellite.

The show broadcasts tonight at 11:30 p.m. ET, so here's a thread for you to share your views on the how the two candidates and one ex-candidate came off.

Howard Dean is moving up his ultimatum for superdelegates to make their decisions by July 1: "I need them to say who they're for starting now."

"We cannot give up two or three months of active campaigning and healing time," Dean elaborated. In other words, the pressure is on to get a Democratic nominee as soon as possible, perhaps especially in light of the attacks that were flying around at last night's debate.

Obama isn't the only pol using last night's debate to his advantage. On the trail today, Bill Clinton waded into the skirmish over ABC's performance, pointing to the loud complaining coming from Obama backers in order to rally his own wife's supporters:

"When I watched that debate last night, I got kinda tickled," the former President said at an American Legion Hall event in St. Mary's, Pennsylvania, "After the [debate], her opponents', oh, the people working were saying, 'Oh this is so negative, why are they doing this.' Well they've been beatin' up on her for 15 months. I didn't hear her whining when he said she was untruthful in Iowa or called her the senator from Punjab."

"And, you know, they said some pretty rough things about me, too. But you know, this is a contact sport. If you don't want to play, keep your uniform off," Clinton told a loudly cheering crowd.

Obama, seeking to turn his rough night at the debate to his advantage, takes shots at ABC's debate performance on the trail today in North Carolina -- and places himself above both ABC and Hillary by saying she "looked in her element"...

One thing Obama has been very adept at doing: When he takes a political hit, he neutralizes it by decrying it as the very sort of negative politicking he's trying to rise above.

In this case, he did this by describing the debate as "precisely why I'm running for president -- to change that kind of politics."

Hillary has tried this before, but it's not the sort of liberty the political press and pundits have been willing to permit her to take.

ABC debate moderator George Stephanopoulos responds to Obama, and defends his handling of the debate, here.

At some point amid the hailstorm of criticism that greeted ABC's handling of yesterday's Dem debate, moderator George Stephanopoulos received an email -- one of the many, many missives about the debate he's received -- from an Obama adviser.

"Feel like a candidate today?" the adviser asked.

In an interview with me moments ago, Stephanopoulos strongly defended his handling of the debate. He dismissed criticism that it had focused too heavily on "gotcha" questions, arguing that they had gone to the heart of the "electability" that, he said, is forefront in the minds of voters evaluating the two Dems.

"Overall, the questions were tough, fair, relevant, and appropriate," Stephanopoulos argued. And he rejected the claim by many Obama supporters that the debate had been stacked against him, saying Hillary had faced sharp questioning, too.

Today on the campaign trail Obama criticized ABC's handling of the debate, characterizing it as "the roll out of the Republican campaign against me in November."

Asked to respond, Stephanopoulos said that getting criticized "comes with the territory."

"Our job is to ask the questions," he said. "His job is to go out and win votes."

Asked to defend the fact that policy didn't come up for the first 40 or so minutes of the debate, Stephanopoulos said:

"We decided to focus at the top on the issues that had been at the center of the debate since the last debate. Everything we brought up in that front section had not come up since the last debate. And they all focused on the same theme -- which candidate would be a stronger Democratic candidate in Novembber."

"This is the core question for the campaigns, and a lot of Democratic voters right now. That's why we decided to lead with it."

Read more »

Suddenly, NAFTA mailers are everywhere. Here's Hillary's Pennsylvania mail piece -- forwarded to us by a political operative -- going after Obama on NAFTA by recycling the Goolsbee tale.

Click on the image to enlarge...

Obama hits Hillary on NAFTA in a Pennsylvania mailer. Click on below images to enlarge:

On an Obama campaign conference call moments ago, Obama campaign manager David Plouffe offered a novel push-back against Hillary's claims that she's better prepared for a general election.

Plouffe argued that because the Obama campaign hasn't run as brutal a campaign against Hillary as she has against him, she has not been thoroughly vetted and hence would also be vulnerable against the GOP, despite claiming the contrary.

"We have not run a scorched earth campaign," Plouffe claimed, adding that as a result, "the Republicans are going to have any number of issues to use against Senator Clinton."

The Clinton camp argues that the Obama campaign has repeatedly attacked Hillary's character as untrustworthy and unscrupulous, and has repeatedly questioned Hillary's electability without facing the same criticism for doing so.

Indeed, Plouffe did so on the very same call, saying: "The American people are not going to elect a president that they do not trust." It's hard, however, to see that as being quite in the same league with the hits on Wright, and now, Ayers.

Either way, one thing that's interesting about Plouffe's latest argument -- that their supposed lack of negativity would leave her vulnerable against the GOP -- is that it's kind of an inverse of the Clinton camp's argument that their harsh criticism of Obama is fair game in that it will air out Obama in advance of the general, should he be the nominee.

Late Update: Here's the audio from the conference call:

While both Democratic campaigns are arguing that they're the best ones to compete in the swing states, a new polling analysis from Gallup finds that they are equally competitive against John McCain in the key areas.

In the 12 states where President Bush or John Kerry won by less than six points, Obama leads McCain by a margin of 47%-43%. For her part, Hillary Clinton leads McCain by ... 47%-43%.

Don't worry, though -- we're sure each of the campaigns' spinmeisters will find something to pick through here.

While the GOP is having a terrible time raising money for their House and Senate races, portending further Dem gains in Congress, the Republicans are in fact having huge success in another area.

The Republican National Committee has announced that they have $31 million cash-on-hand at the end of March, money that can be used to assist John McCain as well as down-ballot races this Fall.

Quarterly figures aren't available yet for the DNC, but it's likely they'll be way behind -- at the end of February, they only had $4.8 million on hand, with $250,000 in outstanding debts.

This is essentially a tradeoff that comes with Howard Dean's 50-state strategy -- if the DNC's primary mission is to act as a financial and organizational clearinghouse for state parties and candidates, it ends up not raising very much money for itself. We'll find out in the months to come whether the Republicans can successfully exploit this weakness.

Late Update: A DNC source reminds us that the Dems don't have a nominee yet. When that happens, the DNC is confident that the fundraising will pick up significantly.

David Corn of Mother Jones and Hillary spokesperson Howard Wolfson went at it hard on the Hillary conference call today -- with Corn repeatedly demanding to know what Hillary thinks of the fact that her husband pardoned two members of the Weather Underground.

Wolfson said he'd ask her. It's probably a question that the Hillary campaign will be pressed on in the days ahead.

Hillary hit Obama hard over his ties to former Weather Underground member William Ayers at the debate yesterday. And on the call today, Hillary advisers kept up the pressure, pointing out that Ayers hosted an event at his home for Obama when he ran for state senator and that this was a legitimate topic for journalistic scrutiny.

It's an intriguing move, to say the least. The Clinton camp was so eager to get Ayers' name into the political conversation that they were willing to risk not one, but two possible blowbacks: First, the inevitable criticism they'll take for going so negative; and second, questions about Bill's pardons.

The Clinton camp appears to have gotten what they wanted -- for now. As Ben Smith notes, "Ayers" is "the fifth most searched term on Google, according to Google Trends."

But it remains to be seen whether there will be voter backlash over this, and whether reporters will pressure the Hillary campaign to respond to questions about Bill's pardons.

Late Update: Here's audio of the conference call:

On a Clinton campaign conference call this morning, Hillary's advisers were asked directly what their basis is for denying outright that she said "screw 'em" about white working class southerners in a meeting in 1995, as author Benjamin Barber alleges.

In response, the Hillary campaign floated the name of a new witness who hasn't yet been mentioned: Bruce Reed, the domestic policy adviser at the time.

As best as we can determine, he hasn't been quoted publicly on this yet.

Right now, as the Obama campaign points out, three eyewitnesses are alleging that she made the comment: Barber, Harry Boyte, the director of the University of Minnesota's Center for Democracy and Citizenship, and Alan Wolfe, who said flatly that "Barber and Boyte have it right."

Who is saying she didn't make it? Don Baer, a Clinton speechwriter at the time, and, now, Reed, who obviously isn't a neutral observer.

We'll let you know if Reed speaks out.

Late Update: Baer, it turns out, is now chairman of Penn, Schoen & Berland Associates.

Late Late Update: I should have made it clearer that the Obama campaign is pushing this issue with reporters, sending out links proving that the three witnesses have confirmed that she made the remarks. Hence the headline. I've edited the above to reflect this.

Looks like a pro-Obama outside group is coming in to rescue him from the "small town" flap. SEIU's new ad for Obama in Pennsylvania pushes back against Hillary Clinton on the "small town" controversy, using the energy issue as a pretext:

It's not exactly coordination so much as outright imitiating the themes in Obama's latest ads, that he doesn't take money from energy company lobbyists. But the imagery of ordinary, working-class people talking about how Barack Obama is different definitely seems to be a rebuttal to Hillary's own ad on the "small town" comments, which is running as her only ad in many parts of the state.

In a further indication that the House Democrats are going into this cycle in much better shape for the general election than their GOP counterparts, the Democratic candidates have more money on hand in about two thirds of the key races, ranging from Dem-held seats picked up in 2006 to newly-targeted seats this cycle.

For example, Democratic challengers have more than the Republican incumbents in four cases: Reps. Tim Walberg (R-MI), Randy Kuhl (R-NY), Jean Schmidt (R-OH) and Dave Reichert (R-WA). And also in nine open Republican-held seats, the Democratic candidates have out-raised the GOPers aiming to hold on to those seats.

In a sign that the Obama campaign is still working to push back on the "small town" flap, the campaign has rolled out the endorsement of Oklahoma superdelegate Reggie Whitten -- with an official press release that includes the phrase "small town" in a good way twice.

"I'm from the small town of Seminole, Oklahoma: a city that is predominantly hard-working middle class citizens," Whitten says. "It is important that our next President keep small towns like Seminole in mind when he talks about our economy. I am very sincere in my belief that Senator Obama will do just that."

A new Zogby poll of Pennsylvania shows a close race in the Democratic primary: Clinton 45%, Obama 44%.

The internals show Obama winning Philadelphia and the overall eastern region of the state, which if it pans out would guarantee a close delegate margin for the primary as a whole.

One word of caution: Zogby's record this cycle has had some notable misfires, including a predicted close race in Ohio and an Obama win in California.

A few last-minute odds and ends on the debate...

* There were questions about Wright, "small town," and Obama's flag-pin (or lack thereof), and none about Mark Penn or Colombia. The Clinton camp, which has been arguing that Obama hasn't received the front-runner's treatment yet, is very happy about this tonight.

* The Obama campaign, perhaps in a sign of urgency, rushed out a statement from campaign manager David Plouffe, emphasizing Hillary's attacks again and again. An excerpt...

"Tonight we saw a real choice between the old politics of point-scoring and distraction and a politics that focuses on bringing us together to actually solve the challenges we talk about every single election. Continuing the theme of her campaign, Senator Clinton used every single opportunity she had to launch misleading attack after misleading attack against Barack Obama, which is why polls show that most Americans think she's running the most negative campaign and don't believe she's trustworthy."

By contrast, the Hillary campaign didn't send out any statement; they think they won. Instead, their official reaction to the debate was to post this vid of a Philly focus group reacting to it...

* In an intriguing post-script, Hillary spokesperson Howard Wolfson appeared to defend ABC's silly gotcha conduct tonight. Asked on MSNBC by Keith Olbermann whether the candidates should really agree to debates such as these, Wolfson said that he thought that there were in fact some substantive questions, then added...

I think it's appropriate here for viewers at home here in Pennsylvania and around the country to look at these candidates. And how they answer some of the political questions that also come up because this is a political campaign and I think Senator Obama was asked a number of those kinds of questions, the kinds of questions that he's likely to see if he's the nominee in the fall. And he didn't handle them very well. And I think that voters watching at home will certainly take that into account.

It's in keeping with the Hillary camp's increasingly frequent argument that the Repubs are going to hit Obama with this stuff should he become the nominee -- so, hey, there's nothing wrong with us hitting him with the same stuff now.

Nonetheless, ABC is going to take a tremendous hit for this one. Obama supporters -- and perhaps some high-profile surrogates, as well -- will be expressing their displeasure with the network in no uncertain terms in the days ahead.

Now, over to you....

...with more wingnut-frame questions, including ones on gun control and even about affirmative action and Obama's well-off daughter.

So, thus far, questions on:

"Small-town" comments

Wright

Weather Underground

Flag-pin/patriotism

Gun control

Affirmative Action

...we miss any?

It appears that ABC is working hard to prove that it's capable of fielding debate moderators who bow to no one in their capacity for inanity, not even Tim Russert. After asking questions about Wright and the "small town" comments, the ABC moderators go on to ask Obama to account for his years-old connection to...

....former Weather Underground member William Ayers.

Obama, offering his explanation, seemed genuinely puzzled to be getting asked about this, saying that Ayers was merely a "guy who lives in my neighborhood," and made a surprise reference to Senator Tom Coburn...

The fact is that I'm also friendly with Tom Coburn, one of the most conservative Republicans in the United States Senate, who during his campaign once said that it might be appropriate to apply the death penalty to those who carried about abortions. Do I need to apologize for Mr. Coburn's statements?

In response, Hillary actually hit Obama over the Ayers connection (with a bonus reference to 9/11 thrown in):

I also believe that Senator Obama served on a board with Mr. Ayers for a period of time, the woods foundation, which was a paid directorship position. And if I'm not mistaken, that relationship with Mr. Ayers on this board continued after 9/11 and after his reported comments, which were deeply hurtful to people in New York, and I would hope to every American, because they were published on 9/11, and he said that he was just sorry they hadn't done more....

I know Senator Obama is a good man, and I respect him greatly. But I think this is an issue that certainly the Republicans will be raising.

Obama appeared to have a response ready:

President Clinton pardoned or commuted the sentences of two members of the Weather Underground, which I think is a slightly more significant act than me serving on a board with somebody for actions that he did 40 years ago.

Asked about Obama's pastor, Jeremiah Wright, Hillary slips a reference to the fact that the 9/11 attackers hit "my city" into her critique....

Obviously, one's choice of church and pastor is rooted in what one believes is what you're seeking in church, and what kind of fellowship you find in church.

But I have to say that for pastor wright to have given his first sermon after 9/11, and to have blamed the United States for the attack, which happened in my city of New York, would have been just intolerable for me. And therefore I would have not been able to stay in the church.

A bit later comes her claim that Wright's a legit topic, as well as a reference to Farrakhan and Hamas...

As leaders we have a choice of who we associate with, and who we apparently give some kind of seal of approval to. And I think that it wasn't only the specific remarks, but the relationship with Rev. Farrakhan, with giving the church bulleting over to the leader of Hamas to put a message in. These are problems, and they raise questions in people's minds. This is a legitimate area, as everything is when we run for office, for people to be exploring, and trying to find answers.

That's a lot of buttons pushed in a few short moments.

Hillary's attacks on Obama -- such as her claim that only she and McCain have met the "commander in chief test" -- have angered a lot of Dems who say she's never clearly stated that Obama can win a general election.

Well, now she has. It took George Stephanopoulos a couple tries, but after asking Hillary a second time whether she thought Obama can beat McCain, she said:

"Yes. Yes. Yes."

Hillary added that she thinks she's the candidate better positioned to beat him. When Obama was asked whether Hillary can beat McCain, he said, in what was perhaps a sly reference to her reluctance to admit that he can win:

"Absolutely. And I've said so before."

The debate's underway. ABC's Charlie Gibson quotes former New York governor Mario Cuomo, and asks the two Dems: Why not just agree to share a ticket, already?

Needless to say, neither candidate directly answered; Obama says it's premature; Hillary promises that no matter who wins the nomination, Dems will unify, yadda, yadda, yadda.

In response, Gibson allows: "I don't think Governor Cuomo has any takers yet."

And he never will.

We're blogging the debate right here.

Barack Obama has released his tax returns for the year 2007: Total income of $4.2 million between himself and Michelle.

The overwhelming majority of the money, $4 million, came from royalties on his two books, Dreams From My Father and The Audacity of Hope.

The Obamas also donated $240,370 to charity, and paid $1.4 million in federal taxes.

We'll be blogging tonight's debate, which starts at 8 P.M on ABC, right here at TPM Election Central.

Meanwhile, here's some good happy hour reading to kill the time until the debate gets underway...

The New Repubic's John Judis says that Obama's small-town comments could badly damage him in a general election, and argues that he'll have a tougher time remaking the electoral map than he claims.

But Open Left's Chris Bowers rebuts Judis, saying that the electorate has changed in ways that will render the old politics of conservative backlash against "liberal elitists" ineffective.

Mark Halperin points to all the bad things that didn't happen to Obama in the wake of the "small town" comments.

Media Matters catches yet another political observer making the transparently ridiculous case that no matter how partisan John McCain's behavior is, the press doesn't believe he really has his heart in it, so it doesn't really matter.

Atrios says Howard Kurtz has it right on the absurdity of multi-millionaire pundits claiming to understand what rubs working folks the wrong way.

And those who think Hillary's "commander in chief test" attacks on Obama are too rough might want to remember this ad against Howard Dean in 2004:

In case you needed further evidence that the Clinton forces think they have to go all-out against Barack Obama in order to rack up a significant victory, the American Leadership Project -- the 527 group set up by Hillary donors and big unions to finance pro-Hillary ads -- has a new spot up in Pennsylvania ripping Obama on health care:

The group is planning to spend $250,000 on the ad across several media markets. This is on top of Hillary's own ad campaign, which we've shown to be 100% negative at this point in most of the state.

I'm a bit late posting this, but I wanted to flag it -- there's an interesting number buried in the new Washington Post poll:

18. (ASKED OF LEANED DEMOCRATS) The Democratic nomination may be decided by so-called "super delegates" who can pick any candidate they choose. Do you think the super delegates should support the candidate who won the most (delegates) in primaries and caucuses; the candidate who won the most (overall votes); or the candidate they think is best, regardless of either delegate or vote totals?

Delegates 13

Overall votes 46

Candidate they think is best 37

The Hillary campaign is clinging to the hope that she'll somehow be able to eek out a long shot popular vote win, and support here appears stronger for the idea that the popular vote is the metric super-dels should use.

Obama, of course, is on track to win both the delegate count and the popular vote, and the total support voiced here for supporting either of those is 59% -- far higher than the 37% saying super-dels should exercise their own judgment.

Also, while the number supporting the idea that super-dels should do what they want is surprisingly high, my bet is that if Obama wins both the pledged del count and the popular vote this number would quickly drop.

The Democratic candidate has built up a strong financial advantage in the open Colorado Senate race, a key opportunity for a Dem pickup where the polls have been very close thus far.

The numbers for the first quarter: Congressman Mark Udall (D) took in $1.46 million, and has $4.2 million on hand. Former Congressman Bob Schaffer took in $1.02 million, with $2.2 million on hand.

We've been covering Schaffer's past ties to Jack Abramoff at TPMmuckraker.

The Clinton campaign has been demanding that Obama release his 1997-1999 tax returns, and today on an Obama campaign conference call, Obama campaign manager David Plouffe was asked if he would do just that.

Plouffe's answer:

"We released our full tax returns for the entire decade, same period...we'll be releasing shortly our full 2007 tax returns."

The Obama campaign confirms that Plouffe was referring to 2000-2006, the same period that the Clintons released their returns for a few weeks ago. Plouffe didn't address the question about the 1997-1999 returns.

Hillary's returns from the 1990s -- when she was First Lady -- are available, obviously. It's still unclear whether Obama's 1997-1999 returns will be released.

Late Update: Here's some audio of the Obama campaign conference call:

Gallup is just out with the most fine-grained polling analysis I've seen yet on whether Obama's "small town" comments have hurt him, and it finds that the answer for now is No.

Gallup looked at the support Obama has among the constituencies he was referring to in his remarks, and found that his backing has dropped among them slightly, but by statistically insignificant amounts. Gallup found:

* Among Democratic voters who make $24,000 or less, Obama's support has dropped three points, from 47%-44%.

* Among Democratic voters with no college education, his support has dropped one point, from 41%-40%.

* Among Democratic voters who say they are worried about money, his support has dropped two points, from 55%-53%.

* Among Democratic voters who say religion is an important part of their lives, his support dropped one point, from 49%-48%.

Gallup's conclusion: "It certainly appears that, as of April 14 interviewing, Obama's remarks have not hurt him -- either among the Democratic electorate as a whole or among the Democratic constituencies Obama was referring to."

One caveat: Hillary is likely to continue running her ad hitting Obama over the comments between now and next Tuesday. It would certainly count for something if the Hillary campaign succeeds in swinging some three percent of the vote with the comments.

But the above polling suggests this might not happen. Either way, we won't know for certain until the votes are counted -- and the exit polls are in.

Late Update: Today's Gallup tracking poll shows a slight contraction in Obama's national lead, from 11 points down to eight. We'll find out over the next few days whether this was just noise and Obama's lead expands again, or whether Clinton can make real inroads thanks to the "small town" comments.

Here's a glimpse into Hillary's ad strategy in the final stretch of the Pennsylvania primary:

In most of Pennsylvania's markets, the only TV ad Hillary is running right now is a negative one -- the spot hitting Obama over his "small town" comments, a political ad buyer who tracks buys in Pennsylvania tells me.

The buyer says that as of this morning, that ad -- and no positive spots -- are running in the Pittsburgh, Erie, Johnstown/Altoona, and Wilkes-Barre/Scranton markets.

Meanwhile, the buyer says, in the Philadelphia and Harrisburg markets, Hillary's ad campaign is 50% negative -- she's running two spots, the new spot hitting Obama over oil companies, and another spot touting Hillary's plans to right the economy that doesn't mention Obama.

According to the buyer, the Philadelphia and Harrisburg markets add up to a bit over half the state's households.

Upshot: Nearly half the state's households are right now seeing only the "small town" spot, and the remaining half are seeing her economy spot and the oil spot hitting Obama, the buyer says.

Of course, this could still change at any time. Asked for a comment, Hillary Pennsylvania spokesperson Mark Nevins would only say: "We don't discuss our ad strategy. The colonel never gives away the secret recipe."

Late Update: There's still more: Ben Smith has obtained the script of a new ad hitting Obama that the pro-Clinton third party group American Leadership Project is set to run.

Hillary Clinton has a new ad in Indiana, promising to keep defense-related factory jobs in America:

On the one hand there's no direct mention of Barack Obama or the "small town" comments, but on the other hand the overall tone and imagery are clearly an appeal to the same economically-distressed voters that Obama was talking about.

In a sign of just how seriously the GOP is working to stop the bleeding in the Senate, incumbent Senator John Sununu (R) is maintaining a better than 2-1 cash advantage over Dem challenger Jeanne Shaheen in the closely-watched New Hampshire Senate race.

Sununu took in just over $1 million for the first quarter, actually slightly less than Shaheen's $1.2 million, but maintains a cash-on-hand advantage of $4.3 million to the former Dem governor's $2 million.

Sununu will need the money, though -- the polls have mostly put him way behind Shaheen thus far in their rematch.

Here's Obama's response to Hillary's ad yesterday accusing the Obama campaign of being misleading for saying he doesn't take money from "oil companies"...

The ad does sharpen his message here by stressing that Obama is the "only candidate who doesn't take a dime from oil company PACs or lobbyists."

The new survey of Pennsylvania from Public Policy Polling (D) gives Barack Obama a narrow lead over Hillary Clinton. Here are the numbers, compared to a week ago:

Obama 45% (+2)
Clinton 42% (-4)

Obama leads 77%-12% among African-American voters, while Clinton is ahead 49%-37% with whites. The poll was conducted Monday and Tuesday, entirely after the "small town" flap first broke out.

One caveat: PPP has been the only pollster to show Obama ahead in Pennsylvania, making this something of an outlier.

The big story for tonight will be the Democratic debate in Philadelphia, the first debate between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton in about a month and a half.

With the Pennsylvania primary happening this Tuesday, expect a lot of pressure for each candidate. Clinton will have to expand from her current narrow lead in the polls in order to really gain in delegates, and Obama could put the race away if he can actually win the primary.

The debate will begin at 8 p.m. ET, and will air on ABC.

Get ready for Zell Miller, Part II. Joe Lieberman says that he is prepared to speak at the Republican National Convention this year, perhaps even give the keynote, in order to help John McCain appeal to independent voters.

"If Sen. McCain, who I support so strongly, asked me to do it, if he thinks it will help him, I will," Lieberman told The Hill.

A new USA Today article casts some doubt on Barack Obama's lobbyist policies, pointing out that 38 members of his fundraising team are members of law firms that extensively engage in lobbying, including 31 law firm partners and six fundraisers with direct managerial authority over lobbyists.

Campaign spokesman Tommy Vietor said the campaign's policy of not accepting lobbyist money "isn't a perfect solution or symbol, it does reflect Obama's record of trying to change the way that Washington does business." Either way, expect the Clinton camp to hit Obama on this one, perhaps even at tonight's debate.

A new Zogby poll has Barack Obama leading Hillary Clinton by 13 points, with significant movement since the last poll from a month ago:

Obama 51% (+4)
Clinton 38% (-6)

One caveat: The poll was conducted Thursday through Saturday, mostly done before the "small town" flap broke out. On the other hand, other polls taken over the last week haven't shown the controversy affecting the numbers.

The new ABC/Washington Post poll shows Barack Obama leading Hillary Clinton by ten points nationwide. Here are the numbers, compared to about a month and a half ago:

Obama 51% (+1)
Clinton 41% (-2)

The internals have mostly bad news for Hillary Clinton -- for example, only 39% of Americans believe she is honest and trustworthy, with 58% saying the opposite, and her personal ratings are only 44% favorable to 54% unfavorable.

On the other hand, 50% of Dem-leaning respondents said it made no difference for the Democratic primaries to continue on, with 17% saying it was a good thing -- and 55% even said Clinton should stay in the race if she were to lose in Pennsylvania.

During a campaign event in Pennsylvania, Bill Clinton said that Hillary has done better with older voters because they are too smart to be fooled by Barack Obama and his aspersions on Bill's record.

"I think there is a big reason there's an age difference in a lot of these polls," said Bill. "Because once you've reached a certain age, you won't sit there and listen to somebody tell you there's really no difference between what happened in the Bush years and the Clinton years; that there's not much difference in how small-town Pennsylvania fared when I was president, and in this decade."

The new poll of Pennsylvania by Franklin and Marshall College, one of the state's most prominent pollsters, confirms that the Democratic race is a close one. There's been significant movement since their last poll from just under a month ago:

Clinton 46% (-5)
Obama 40% (+5)

Pollster Terry Madonna thinks the "small town" flap has yet to fully play out with the voters: "With the new commercial and the San Francisco statements, can she push the lead back to double digits?"

A new poll of Pennsylvania from Strategic Vision (R) shows a slight increase in Hillary Clinton's primary lead since last week, though the change is not statistically significant:

Clinton 49% (+2)
Obama 40% (-2)

Perhaps a serious area of concern is that both candidates trail John McCain here, possibly due in part to the acrimony of the primary race:

McCain (R) 47%, Clinton (D) 44%
McCain (R) 49%, Obama (D) 39%

The woman who broke the Obama "small town" story for The Huffington Post may have come under relentless fire from some Obama supporters after the news broke, but she has one word to describe the response she's since received from the Obama campaign itself: "Classy."

I just spoke briefly with the woman, Mayhill Fowler, and she said that though she created the worst and most sustained controversy for Obama since Jeremiah Wright's sermons surfaced, Obama campaign aides haven't directed any anger or punitive action in her direction.

"They haven't denied me any kind of access," Fowler said. "From the time I started following them around last June, they have been a classy operation, and I still think they are. They haven't treated me any differently than before."

Fowler rejected charges -- voiced in the blogosphere and elsewhere -- that she'd deliberately broken the story to harm Obama on Hillary's behalf.

"There are still a lot of conspiracy theories out there, that I'm a Clinton campaign plant. None of that is true," she said, adding that covering the campaign was a great pleasure that consumes her "24-7."

Fowler confirmed that a number of people shot the episode on their cellphones and at least one person filmed it with a video camera -- meaning that it's likely that video of the controversial comments themselves is still lurking out there.

One final tidbit: Fowler rejected the idea that the people Obama made his guns and religion remarks to were rich.

"I'm not sure that it's completely come out, but these were not really wealthy people."

Three new Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg polls show close primary races in Pennsylvania and Indiana, with Barack Obama posting a strong lead in North Carolina -- bad news for Hillary Clinton, as she at least needs good-sized wins in Pennsylvania and Indiana.

Pennsylvania
Clinton 46%, Obama 41%

Indiana
Obama 40%, Clinton 35%

North Carolina
Obama 47%, Clinton 34%

One caveat: Other recent polls have given Clinton the lead in Indiana, and this one might be criticized due to the higher undecided number.

Here, less than 24 hours later, is Obama's Pennsylvania ad responding to Hillary's spot from yesterday hitting him for the "small town" comments...

The spot shows Hillary getting booed for criticizing him, with a narrator saying:

"There's a reason people are rejecting Hillary Clinton's attacks. Because the same old Washington politics won't lower the price of gas or help our struggling economy. Barack Obama will represent all Americans. He offers a new approach."

Full script after the jump.

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Obama drops a new mailer in Pennsylvania that was forwarded our way.

It displays Obama talking to a crowd of hard hats, portrays him as the real foe of special interests that are hurting ordinary Americans, and hits Hillary for taking big bucks from Washington lobbyists and PACs. Click on the images below to enlarge...

This is something of a closing message for Obama as the two duke it out over the economically struggling voters that have been the subject of so much discussion of late in the context of Obama's "small town" comments. It speaks to these voters by mocking Hillary's defense of lobbyists as follows:

"She says they represent `real people.' Do they represent you?"

Here's another sign that the emergence of the Internet has raised fundraising expectations enormously for Congressional races all across the country.

The latest fundraising figures from Maine show that the two candidates have already made this the most expensive Senate race in state history -- and there are more than six months left to go.

Incumbent Susan Collins (R) raised over $960,00 in the first quarter of 2008, with $5.52 million raised overall and $4.51 million in cash-on-hand. Congressman Tom Allen (D) took in $700,000 for the first quarter, with $3.7 million raised in total and $2.7 million cash-on-hand.

As much as Allen has raised, it might not be enough to topple the incumbent, however: Collins holds a double-digit lead in all polls taken so far.

Today's Gallup tracking poll gives Barack Obama an 11-point lead over Hillary Clinton, his widest margin ever in Gallup's polling. Here are the numbers, compared to yesterday:

Obama 51% (+1)
Clinton 40% (+0)

The poll was conducted entirely after the "small town" controversy first erupted, a further indication that the whole flap has yet to actually harm Obama's poll numbers.

From a novel Obama campaign fundraising email that seeks to raise money off the dust-up over the "small town" comments...

A few days ago, Barack spoke about the frustrations that working people in this country are feeling and said what we all know is true: that many people are bitter and angry because they believe their government isn't listening to them.

...our opponents have been spinning the media and peddling fake outrage around the clock. John McCain's campaign, which will continue the George Bush economic policies that have devastated the middle class, called Barack out of touch and elitist. And Hillary Clinton, who is the candidate who said lobbyists represent real people, didn't just echo the Republican candidate's talking points: she actually used the very same words to pile on with more attacks.

Hillary campaign spokesperson Phil Singer attacked the email on today's campaign conference call, arguing that Obama had misrepresented his own comments by focusing on his claim that folks are "bitter" rather than on the guns and religion part.

"They are trying to recast what Senator Obama said and focus on the least controversial elements," Singer complained.

But the Clinton camp didn't address the letter's charge that Hillary and McCain are using identical language to hit Obama over this.

Late Update: Here's audio of this morning's Clinton campaign conference call:

A Clinton campaign source confirms to me that roughly 100 mayors from all over Pennsylvania will be endorsing her today at noon -- and a bunch of them will hit Obama over the "small town" comments.

Some twenty of them will be at an event in Harrisburg today, and number of these will pick up the "small town" refrain -- an effort by the Hillary campaign to get local officials who represent these small-town folks to keep the story going.

"These are the men and women who represent the people Senator Obama so casually dismissed as clinging to guns and religion," a Hillary campaign source says. "These mayors know better."

Obviously, the endorsements of individual lower-level officials don't mean much in isolation, but the Clinton campaign is hoping that a whole bunch of them echoing her criticism of Obama will add up to a chorus of sorts.

Late Update: As expected, 19 mayors actually showed up to the event today. I've asked the campaign how many of the 100 mayors had previously endorsed her; if the campaign answers, I'll keep you posted.

The Pennsylvania polls are coming fast and furious today -- and while most show a slight uptick in support for Hillary, they all appear to indicate that Obama's "small town" comments are not yet causing any big movement.

• The new CNN poll of polls shows a slight uptick in Hillary Clinton's Pennsylvania lead from late last week, but only from a four-point lead to a six-point lead. The new figure: Clinton 49%, Obama 43%.

• Meanwhile, the new Rasmussen poll has Clinton leading Barack Obama by nine points, not significantly changed since a week ago:

Clinton 50% (+2)
Obama 41% (-2)

As for primary voters' reactions to the "small town" comments, 51% disagree with the remarks, but on the other hand only 37% of respondents said it represented an elitist view, versus 48% who did not think so.

• A SurveyUSA poll finds that a majority of people in the Harrisburg area -- the just the sort of blue-collar place we might concern ourselves with -- were not offended by the remarks, with Democrats not offended by a 62%-33% margin.

• And a new Susquehanna poll has the race narrowing since a month ago, but with a very high undecided number:

Clinton 40% (-5)
Obama 37% (+6)

Late Update: The Susquehanna poll came out yesterday, but the interviews actually predate the "small town" comments.

Late Late Update: The SurveyUSA poll was just of the Harrisburg region, not the state as a whole.

Howard Wolfson, on a conference call with reporters just now, offered the campaign's first defense of the Hillary campaign's new ad attacking Obama over the "small town" comments.

Asked if the ad signaled a new level of negativity in the campaign that could damage Dem hopes for the fall, Wolfson said:

"The issues raised in the ad are important issues. There's been a great deal of concern about his remarks in California. He has offered several different explanations for them, none of them quite satisfying."

Wolfson continued that the ad "mirrors the reactions of many Pennsylvanians," and added that those voters believe that Obama's comments "condescended to them."

Early polling, however, may suggest that it's not yet clear whether the comments are taking hold with the broader electorate in the state.

One other telling quote from Wolfson on the "small town" comments: "It's something that we intend to continue to discuss, because it's important."

The new SurveyUSA poll of Pennsylvania shows Hillary Clinton leading Barack Obama by 14 points, not significantly different from last week:

Clinton 54% (-2)
Obama 40% (+2)

The poll was conducted Saturday through Monday, in the heat of Obama's "small town" flap -- a sign that the whole business might not really be hurting him all that much, at least for now.

John McCain will give a speech today on tax cuts and the economy, in which he will call upon the Republican Party to embrace fiscal restraint, and lambaste the Democrats -- especially Barack Obama -- as the party of big tax hikes. It should be an interesting look at how the GOP shifts gears into the general election and takes on Obama, now that the widespread assumption is that he will be their opponent.

"All these tax increases are the fine print under the slogan of 'hope,'" McCain will say. "They're going to raise your taxes by thousands of dollars per year -- and they have the audacity to hope you don't mind."

Although Hillary Clinton has an edge in Pennsylvania polls, an analysis by CQ shows that the current numbers would not project out to a huge delegate advantage. Of the 103 pledged delegates distributed at the district level -- another 55 will be allocated by statewide popular vote -- Clinton so far has an advantage of only 53 delegates to Obama's 50.

Assuming the statewide delegates closely match with the district votes, Clinton will need to seriously increase her lead at all levels in order to really put any kind of dent in Obama's pledged-delegate advantage.

John McCain has a new ad up in select markets in Ohio and Pennsylvania, pitching him as a bipartisan conciliator. "As President, John McCain will take the best ideas from both parties to spur innovation, invest in people and create jobs," the announcer says:

The last line seems to be a subtle knock against Barack Obama, whom McCain has accused of being shallow and lacking any real propsals: "Big ideas for serious problems. John McCain."

As promised, here is the new Quinnipiac poll of Pennsylvania.

It finds that while Hillary has halted Obama's progress by stopping the erosion of her support among whites and women, she still clings to a six point lead, 50%-44% -- unchanged from a week ago.

Some key findings:

* The poll found no discernible change in the matchup in polling on April 12-13, the period during which Obama's "small town" comments were heavily reported on by the Pennsylvania media.

* Fully one forth of Hillary supporters in the state would back McCain if Obama became the nominee.

* Hillary made up lots of ground in the Philadelphia suburbs, a key swing area -- she now trails Obama there by two points, down from 11 last week.

* Obama has noticeably increased his share of the male vote.

* Despite Hillary's lead, 55% of Pennsylvania voters think Obama will be the Dem nominee.

* There's been no real change in either candidate's favorability rating.

Full poll here.

Late Update: A new SurveyUSA poll shows a similar lack of movement in the race.

Now this is funny. The Huffington Post has discovered that at least three (and possibly four) "McCain Family Recipes" from the campaign's site, purportedly coming straight from Cindy McCain and intended to create a down-home image, appear to have actually been lifted from the Food Network's Web site.

The newest recipe on McCain's site: Crow.

A new SurveyUSA poll of Indiana shows Hillary Clinton expanding her lead over Barack Obama. Here are the numbers, compared to the last poll from two weeks ago:

Clinton 55% (+3)
Obama 39% (-4)

A win in Indiana would go a long way in bolstering Hillary Clinton's plan to keep going with the campaign.

Here's a first look at the first ad being run against John McCain by Progressive Media U.S.A., the new pro-Dem third-party group headed by David Brock that's planning to raise $40 million to bloody up the GOP nominee in advance of this fall's election...

The ad, called "Out of Touch," will be running on cable beginning tomorrow and can be seen in D.C. on CNN and MSNBC -- which is to say, it's a small buy aimed at an insider audience of potential future donors, political operatives, and the like.

Hillary chief strategist Geoffrey Garin told us in an interview over the weekend that Obama's "small town" comments were fair game for use in a political ad, and Hillary has now gone up with a new spot in Pennsylvania doing just that....

The ad features ordinary Pennsylvania residents expressing their displeasure with Obama's comments, with one saying she's "very insulted" by them, and another castigating Obama as "out of touch."

The ad also hits the religion button pretty hard, with the narrator stressing that word when reading Obama's original quote. The ad also includes this from a Pennsylvanian:

"I'm not clinging to my faith out of frustration and bitterness. I find that my faith is very uplifting."

Full script after the jump.

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The Obama campaign continues its push-back on criticism of his "small town" remarks with this new robocall from a key surrogate, Mayor John Brenner of York, PA.

The call, which was pumped into PA homes today, argues that Obama has "got it right" about the economic frustration and bitterness reigning in hard-scrabble small-town America. Give it a listen...

The Obama campaign has been working to move the debate away from one over his claim that folks "cling to guns or religion," and on to an argument over whether his characterization of the state of mind of the economically anxious is accurate.

In other words, Camp Obama wants the debate to be framed as whether Obama was right to say that voters are "bitter" about their economic circumstances and what caused them, which segues neatly into a debate with John McCain about the GOP's economic policies and what they've wrought. The robocall does this.

One other point: With the Clinton camp arguing to super-delegates that Obama's "small town" comments render him less electable this fall, the Obama camp has another challenge: Signaling that they're taking aggressive steps to deal with the political problem they've got -- without appearing to be worried about it. It seems fair to say that the Obama campaign has thus far succeeded at this.

Full transcript of the robocall after the jump.

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Rep. Geoff Davis (R-KY) has publicly apologized to Barack Obama after it was reported that he referred to Obama as "that boy" at a GOP fundraiser.

"My poor choice of words is regrettable and was in no way meant to impugn you or your integrity," Davis wrote in a letter that was delivered to Obama's Senate office. "I offer my sincere apology to you and ask for your forgiveness."

The remarks happened at a local GOP dinner in Davis' district on Saturday night. "I'm going to tell you something: That boy's finger does not need to be on the button," Davis declared.

The full letter is available after the jump.

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A new pair of polls from Michigan and Florida casts some doubt on the argument over whether the arguments over the states' rogue primaries would make one Democrat more electable than the other in these particular states:

Michigan (EPIC-MRA)
Obama (D) 43%, McCain (R) 41%
McCain (R) 46%, Clinton (D) 37%

Florida (Rasmussen)
McCain (R) 53%, Obama (D) 38%
Clinton (D) 45%, McCain (R) 44%

A failure to hold a revote or honor the January primary doesn't appear to have made Hillary Clinton more electable than Barack Obama in Michigan. On the other hand, it is possible but not conclusive that Obama has been hurt in Florida by the primary fiasco.

It's due out tomorrow morning from Quinnipiac.

It's possible, even likely, that a fair amount of the polling will have been done during the controversy over Obama's "small town" comments, which broke Friday late afternoon and were covered relentlessly by the Pennsylvania media over the weekend. So there will be keen interest in this poll, to say the least.

The last Q-poll found that Obama had narrowed the gap considerably with Hillary in the state.

An intriguing pattern has emerged in two special elections for the House in Louisiana and Mississippi: Both of the candidates backed by the National Republican Congressional Committee have had a bit of a, shall we say, white supremacy issue.

This is not to say that the two are white supremacists -- rather, they have both flirted with organizations and/or people who are known for, at a minimum, dabbling rather heavily in such sentiments.

The Mississippi case is fairly straightforward -- the GOP candidate is a mayor who had once agreed to accept a gift to his city from a white supremacist group, then backed off. The Louisiana example is a lot more complicated, involving attempts to cover up payments connected to the infamous Klansman/Neo-Nazi David Duke.

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Obama picks up the support of Steelers owner Dan Rooney, the campaign announces.

Rooney releases an open letter detailing his reasons, and the letter is mostly boilerplate, but in it, he does assert that this is an unusual move for him. It's something that could conceivably reassure blue collar voters put off by the "small town" comments.

Rooney's full letter after the jump.

Late Update: It needs to be said that this endorsement could be a big deal in western Pennsylvania, among the sort of voters that comprise Hillary's base. Obama spokesperson Sean Smith emails over the following:

Dan Rooney is an institution in Western Pennsylvania and understands the people and the region better than almost anyone. When he says that Barack Obama is one of us, it sends a very powerful and meaningful message to a lot of people.

Read more »

The GOP's single best pickup opportunity in the Senate right now is against Louisiana Dem Mary Landrieu -- but a new poll finds that she holds a solid lead over her Republican challenger, suggesting that this year's Senate map could be very rough indeed for the GOP.

The numbers from Rasmussen: Landrieu 55%, state Treasurer and ex-Dem John Kennedy (R) 39%. If Landrieu prevails this November, then the GOP is likely to be shut out on Senate pickups again, just as they were in 2006.

Camp Obama's push-back on Hillary's criticism of his "small town" remarks continues this morning -- in a speech before the Alliance for American Manufacturing in Pittsburgh, he again acknowledges error, but also gently mocks Hillary's efforts to appeal to working class voters this weekend by tossing back a shot...

Now it may be that I chose my words badly. It wasn't the first time and it won't be the last. But when I hear my opponents, both of whom have spent decades in Washington, saying I'm out of touch, it's time to cut through their rhetoric and look at the reality.

After all, you've heard this kind of rhetoric before. Around election time, the candidates can't do enough for you. They'll promise you anything, give you a long list of proposals and even come around, with TV crews in tow, to throw back a shot and a beer.

But if those same candidates are taking millions of dollars in contributions from the PACs and lobbyists, ask yourself, who are they going to be toasting once the election is over?

In addition to trying to re-frame the battle over this as an argument over whether Americans are "bitter" or not, poking fun at Hillary for this sort of staged politicking is a key component of Team Obama's push-back on the "small town" brouhaha (though Obama did some similar politicking in a bowling alley).

Full text of his prepared remarks after the jump.

Late Update: Clinton spokesperson Phil Singer responds:

With all due respect, this is the same politician who spent six days posing for clichéd camera shots that included bowling gutterballs, walking around a sports bar, feeding a baby cow, and buying a ham at the Philly market (albeit one that cost $99.99 a pound). Sen. Obama's speeches won't hide his condescending views of Americans living in small towns."

Read more »

Hillary Clinton has a new one-minute ad in North Carolina, as part of her NCAskMe.com campaign in which she's asked North Carolinians to submit questions to her online:

Clinton needs to win virtually every remaining primary in order to seriously dent Barack Obama's delegate lead, and he's been enjoying big leads in the North Carolina polls. An effort to be more open and accessible to the general public might help Clinton narrow that gap, especially as the campaign now takes advantage of an opening supplied by the "bitter" controversy.

A new Rasmussen poll has Barack Obama apparently losing the first rounds of the spin war over his "bitter" comments, with 56% disagreeing and only 25% agreeing

Perhaps more worrisome, a 45% plurality believe that the comments "reflect an elitist view of small-town America," versus only 37% who say it is not elitist. This is something he will probably have to address more, as it's a figure sure to be analyzed and exploited by the Republicans should he ultimately win the nomination.

As Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton battle for Indiana voters on May 6, one group of key Democrats have stayed on the sidelines: The state's five Dem House members, who face various pitfalls if they go either way -- perhaps making neutrality the safest course for now.

A loud and proud endorsement of Clinton -- and to a certain extent for Obama, too -- could come back to haunt those who represent districts likely to go heavily for McCain in November, while an endorsement of Obama could be seen as undermining Sen. Evan Bayh, the state's top Democrat and a Clinton backer.

Hillary Clinton will give a speech today before an Alliance for American Manufacturing forum in Pittsburgh, in which she she will call for greater government action to protect workers from unfair trade practices -- a sign that she might be feeling a need to shore up labor support in the wake of Mark Penn's work for the Colombia trade deal.

The speech will primary focus on China: "We need solutions to fix our trade laws, build a strong manufacturing base, and stand up to China and say that unsafe toys and unfair currency practices are unacceptable."

Barack Obama has enjoyed a groundswell of donations from hedge-fund managers, just edging out Hillary Clinton and way ahead of John McCain -- a sign that the markets are, right or wrong, betting on an Obama win in November.

The numbers from up until Feb. 29: Obama has received $2,196,734 from money managers, Clinton $2,046,550, and McCain only $772,375.

Obama hits the airwaves with a new ad starring Pennsylvania Senator Bob Casey that appears designed to reassure the economically struggling voters that were the subject of Obama's "small town" remarks.

The ad features Casey walking against the backdrop of Scranton, and without making any mention of the "small town" brouhaha, Casey attests to Obama's grasp of the struggle such voters are enduring.

"In towns like yours and mine, families are struggling with bills they can't afford and jobs moving away," Casey says, concluding: "Barack Obama knows Pennsylvania's hurting."

Full script after the jump.

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Hillary Clinton has a new ad in North Carolina, featuring an emotional moment of an elderly African-American woman, speaking at a campaign event about why she's for Hillary:

"With determination and God-given strength," the woman says, "she got to the top, polished like gold."

Barack Obama fired back at Hillary Clinton today, telling the United Steelworkers Union in Pennsylvania that Hillary is the one who is "out of touch," not him and his "bitter" comments:

(Key moment starts at around the 3:45 mark.)

"She knows better -- shame on her," Obama said, before launching into a heckling routine about Hillary's remembrances of being taught to shoot by her father. "She's talking like she's Annie Oakley."

When asked to elaborate on her experiences with guns and religion -- after her remarks yesterday about having been taught to shoot by her dad -- Hillary Clinton said that such a question "is not a relevant question in this debate."

Rather, the issue is about how the Democratic Party and its attitudes are perceived by working-class voters. "We can answer that some other time," Clinton told a press conference. "This is about what people feel is being said about them. I went to church on Easter. I mean, so?"

In a new round of comments likely to intensify the perception that he's for Barack Obama, Jimmy Carter said on ABC's This Week that it "would be very difficult to explain" and a "very serious mistake" is the Democratic super-delegates ultimately give the nomination to someone other than the winner of the primaries.

Carter did leave himself some wiggle room, though, by defining the primary winner as someone who won both the pledged delegates and the aggregate popular vote. He also acknowledged that his state went for Obama, "But if I decided later on to support Mrs. Clinton, I would feel free to do so."