And yet the cutesy talking point from the Clinton Brigade is that Obama can't "seal the deal."

Alright then, give us another week to test that thesis before we go with the candidate that bleeds a 20+ point lead down to nothing over the course of two weeks.

I know if I were a manager, I'd go with the salesman who attracts buyers from the big chain store, not the one who evidently has a tendency to drive away loyal customers.

Unfortunately, on Super Tuesday Zobgy said: Obama 49%, Clinton 36%. They were right about just about every other one, but that one they weren't. The real margin, as MSNBC shows was: Clinton 52%, Obama 42%. SurveyUSA had: Clinton 52%, Obama 42% on that Monday night before the vote.

I'll wait for that one even though I know their not perfect, but at least I can put more weight on it then most others.

By the way, TPM. When are we going to be able to post without having to constantly sign in and resign in then have to retype the password and retype it again and again...very frustrating. Still!

None of these polls have been accurate this election cycle, so its hard to put any stock in any of them...
Like Obama said this past weekend when he was asked about the polls showing him up and closing in TX and OH, he said, "remember New Hampshire."
Although, imo, Obama only needs to win one of the 2 big states, if he losses both, doubts will start to settle in about his ability to close the deal...With that said and the New Hampshire loss in the back of my mind, I really am nervous about tomorrow...

And on top of that, MSNBC shows Clinton 57%, Obama 40% in New York on Feb 5, Super Tuesday.

Feb 4 SurveyUSA
Clinton 56%, Obama 38%

Feb 4 Quinnipiac
Clinton 53%, Obama 39%

Seems to me that Quinnipiac might be more accurate.

C'mon, "idiotic"! We're waiting with quivering anticipation!

this is EXCELLENT NEWS...

Zogby is basically a self-admitted snake oil salesman... just look at his interview on "the daily show" immediately following the NH primary.

maybe he was just having fun (at his own expense), but i got the feeling that there was a bit too much honesty in what he was saying...

paraphrase: if these crazy people want to pay me a lot of money to come up with (these unreliable) numbers, then who am i to refuse?

Ok, I'm dumb, I should have looked closer before I posted.

MO-Pres (D)

Feb 5 Zogby
Obama 45%, Clinton 42%
Feb 4 SurveyUSA
Clinton 54%, Obama 43%
Feb 3 Mason-Dixon
Clinton 47%, Obama 41%
Feb 2 ARG
Obama 44%, Clinton 42%
Feb 1 Rasmussen
Clinton 47%, Obama 38%

I'm confused now... The only thing I can think of is that all this momentum going his way, with it being this close, will probably do him well in Ohio and the Zogby numbers up there might show a possible repeat of MO.

Also, Zogby's numbers are over a three day period so its very possible that the race is breaking to him even further in these last few days.

WHERE THE HELL IS THE CANADIAN MEMO STORY ON THIS SITE ....OBAMA DENIES IT ALL WEEK AND NOW A MEMO SHOWS UP PROVING HE LIES ............MSM IS COVERING IT BUT THE BLOGS HAVENT EVEN MENTIONED IT

Yes, I totally agree with you Mike on this one. Zogby has been unreliable.
Intrade futures shows Obama as the clear favorite in Texas but Hillary is still favored to win in Ohio.
Still, it is nice to see Obama with some momentum going into Tuesday.

These polls are driving me nuts. It's a toss-up and we'll find out tomorrow. They have as much credibility as the clintons, which is zero.

Bottom line is that the clintons can't close the deal. They were up by 20 points or more in virtually all the states that obama has won. There obviously is a problem that she can't close the deal and she should give it up. I wonder who makes the 3 am phone call on 3/5 to her? Will it take 5 rings before she answers it?

Zumper:

The memo stated that the campaign rhetoric may be more exaggerated than actual policy in an Obama presidency.

To which I say: thank God for that.

There is a stealth factor in a lot of polls, and that is the fact that a lot of young people only have cells, no land lines (esp. the ones in college), and these folks don't show up in the polls. And, no surprise here, college kids by a significant majority, vote for Obama.

Is it wrong that I find myself first searching for idiotic before reading any other posts on a new thread? I think it's wrong, but I just can't help myself.

Pollster is reliable (Poll of polls) and it shows Obama with significant momentum, and Clinton holding a 6 point lead. Don't be surprised if it turns out to be similar to Missouri (razor thin win for Obama). Texas will be a blowout. Not even close.

It's the ground game and organizing. The Obama campaign is improving in this area on a daily basis. They've hit a critical mass in numbers and are overwhelming anyone or anything getting in its way.

THIS IS EXCELLENT NEWS!!! FOR HILLARY!!!!

Zogby? Oh, the restaurant guidebook...I use it all the time!

I've been thinking about this for a while. Here's what I don't like about HRC (and Bill). They only seem to really make progress when they have been pushed back far enough and are motivated by fear of losing. They are at their best when their backs are in the corner, but when not pressed with the specter of virtual extinction, they become strangely inert and incapable of making forward progress. That's what Bill's entire presidency was like -- he was backed into a corner continually and he fought back everytime, but ultimately that was where all of his energy was spent -- in staying afloat. HRC's campaign seems to epitomize this trait as well. You can never take her out of the game entirely, but she is never going to be the ones to make forward progress.

I want forward progress and I guess I am willing to take a risk to get it. It's as simple as that.