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Zogby: Hillary Ahead In Texas, Tied In Ohio
The final Zogby tracking polls for today's big races put Hillary Clinton narrowly ahead in Texas, but only tied with Barack Obama in Ohio. On top of that, the undecideds are a fairly significant amount. Here are the numbers, compared to yesterday:
Ohio:
Clinton 44% (-1)
Obama 44% (-3)
Texas:
Clinton 47% (+3)
Obama 44% (-3)
From John Zogby's analysis: "Among those in Texas who were just making up their minds in the last few days, Hillary now leads by four percent, which pretty much tells the story."
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Clinton says she and McCain have 'experience'? I'm not sure that their many decades of experience as career politicians is what this country needs right now. I think we need someone who still remembers what life is like outside the beltway.
March 4, 2008 8:35 AM | Reply | Permalink
She has just as much experience as Nixon and Bush senior.
That experience really helped them out a lot.
March 4, 2008 8:46 AM | Reply | Permalink
With all these polls in the last 24 hrs its clear to me that only 1 of 2 things is going to happen today
1. If these polls are right then HRC is going to have a really good night
2. If these polls are wrong, BO is going to be pleasantly surprised tonight
March 4, 2008 8:38 AM | Reply | Permalink
Another poll that says something totally different?
It's hard to even follow these, no matter who you are rooting for.
And what the impact of them is, is another question. Do Clinton voters stay home because they see she has a lead? Do Obama voters come out in full force to get him back the lead? Does everybody who was going to vote, vote anyway?
I'm glad I don't live in Texas for a lot of reasons, but this whole voting twice thing is certainly one of them.
March 4, 2008 8:52 AM | Reply | Permalink
Who are these idiots that decide last minute? I don't think I want them voting in the first place.
March 4, 2008 8:58 AM | Reply | Permalink
Ugggh....Looks like we are going to have to hear how Hillary came back from the dead (despite the fact that she was up 20 points in these states only weeks ago). Hillary the comeback kid. I think I will choose not to watch tonight.
March 4, 2008 8:59 AM | Reply | Permalink
Zeus, Thor and the rest of the weather gods are going to determine the turnout in Ohio,,,,, especially the half north of I-70.
Standing in lines out of doors anywhere is not going to be happening, and the ice storm in the north is going to limit driving.
If it keeps up in this part of the state, we'll probably have get to the polls by bassboat or canoe.
Fun.
GOBAMA 08
March 4, 2008 9:04 AM | Reply | Permalink
Zogby is just trying to salvage his reputation. He made these numbers up.
This result makes no sense. Over 50% have voted in Texas and Obama leads 56 to 44. I think his poll was accurate yesterday.
Obama wins Texas by double digit and Hillary bare wins Ohio.
Poor Zogby
March 4, 2008 9:06 AM | Reply | Permalink
I was just going to ask, has Zogby ever been right? I used to LOVE his polls, since they always gave me warm fuzzies about my favored candidates, but these days I pretty much ignore anything with his name on it.
Come to think of it, that's pretty much what I do with every poll at this point. But subjectively, Zogby seems worst than most.
March 4, 2008 9:16 AM | Reply | Permalink
Has nobody told Zogby about the caucuses in Texas and thus of the limited significance of the popular percentages?
So the Clinton campaign were *not* the last to catch on to the rules of the Texas process after all?
March 4, 2008 9:18 AM | Reply | Permalink
Obama was up the entire time Texas was allowing early voting and he should dominate the caucus tonight. I think texas still goes to Obama, Ohio and RI to Clinton, VT to Obama. The Clinton camp and it seems the media will happily spin Clinton as "the comeback kid" despite the fact only two weeks ago she had double digit leads in all these states.
Hillary will stay in the race her hopes pinned on Obama getting caught in bed with a gay Nazi hooker.
March 4, 2008 9:20 AM | Reply | Permalink
"The last week's press coverage has featured a mix of stories on the question of relative scrutiny/fairness itself as well as more probing looks into Obama himself."
So you are admitting that the press is gaming the race. I think they want to drag his out because it is exciting to cover. When someone is up, they tear them down, when someone is down, they play up a comeback.
But this is silly. The math shows that she can't catch up. Why isn't that news? Why aren't hard numbers the story? Why the rush for "breaking news" in the last 48 hours before every election, giving no time for an adequate response.
Maybe you journalists are spending too much time in conference calls listen to fantasyland chatter from Ickes and Penn?
If Hillary doesn't win by 10-15 points in TX and OH, the story should be "Hillary couldn't catch up".
It's the delegates, stupid.
March 4, 2008 9:29 AM | Reply | Permalink
Senator Hillary Clinton picks John McCain over Senator Obama, for President. I guess she will not be looking for any support from those who have voted for Senator Obama. Watch her disparage a fellow Democrat, and praise the Republican.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ou4JnWQsxKw&eurl=http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0308/Clinton_on_Obama_and_McCain.html
March 4, 2008 9:32 AM | Reply | Permalink
Both these polls are within the margin of error. They say nothing useful except that the candidates are in an essential dead heat in both states.
March 4, 2008 9:38 AM | Reply | Permalink
Not completely certain why media outlets continue to report Zogby results as if they were reliable statistics. Must say, though - reading through a Zogby poll is usually reliable for a grin or two. It's like they're making an inside joke or something. Whatever, it's usually an amusing read.
March 4, 2008 9:49 AM | Reply | Permalink
I think Zogby just gets up in the morning, gets REALLY stoned and starts making up numbers. The pollster who told me that Obama would win by 8 in NH is telling me it's tied in OH (a day after Zogby was the ONLY poll that had Obama winning) and that Clinton is leading by 3 in TX (all other polls say it's tied).
Thanks, John Zogby, for reminding me why we wait until the votes get counted.
March 4, 2008 10:04 AM | Reply | Permalink
Somehow (though I've defended him a bit in the past) it comforts me that Zogby has Obama losing Texas.
Instead of posting numbers, I think the Zog-man should have just written "NO FREAKING CLUE" next to each state and called it a day.
March 4, 2008 10:12 AM | Reply | Permalink
In the state, Sen. Obama leads Sen. Clinton 47% to 44% in a Reuters/C-SPAN/Houston Chronicle poll, which also shows him leading her 47% to 45% in Ohio
interesting why this poll wasnt the headline.
but in any event the media attack is now in full force as i predicted.
March 4, 2008 10:45 AM | Reply | Permalink
Just floated back from the polls and the post office,,,,,, both in the same 'gro-sta',,,,,, noticed something curious in the mail, in the last week my wife has received 9 flossy-glossy Clinton mailers and only one from Obama. I got no Clinton mailers and the one from Obama.
Other folks noticed the same thing on the gender split on mailers. It could be only in this county as the female head of the local party is in a bitter fight to unseat an male incumbant, and wants to ride in on the female vote of Clinton's apron strings,,,,,, or not.
This part of Ohio is more West Virginia than anything else so anything is possible.
March 4, 2008 11:42 AM | Reply | Permalink
I started out being happy with Clinton, Edwards or Obama as a nominee. After Edwards failed to get traction and dropped out, I gravitated to Obama because I thought he was the most electable, but would have voted for either in the general election. After the last month, I can't imagine any scenario that would make me vote for Hillary. Everytime I see her on television I feel more about her the way I feel about Bush. I am an older women supposedly in her base, not so.
March 4, 2008 12:47 PM | Reply | Permalink