And Redfern is presumably a closet Hillary backer (even though he obviously has to be officially neutral)- his protege Gov. Strickland is on Hillary's team. So coming from Redfern this is a pretty major shot across the Clinton bow.

Strickland is not Redfern's protege. I think Mr. Redfern's statement shows that he is NOT a Clinton supporter--he is not letting the Clinton's move the goalposts. He is a realist, and knows that for a Dem to have a chance here in Nov, this primary needs to end sooner rather than Denver.

I stopped by two more polling locations. Turnout in Central Ohio is not good right now, outside from the OSU area :).

Well duh. This has been the case since she decided not to, or could not, contest the previous 11 caucuses/primaries. But again, the Clintons have manipulated the media into believing that mere victories in Ohio and Texas would be meaningful. The proportionate delegate system is Obama's friend at the moment. All he has to do is keep it close in both states and then pick up more delegates in Wyoming and Mississippi (which if you didn't know occur in the next week and don't count). It's called a 50-state strategy.

An 8 point win for Hillary is not enough. She needs to average a 20% margin (in pledged delegates) over all of today's states. And then she needs to sustain that through to the end of the primary season so that she goes into a contested convention with an 80 delegate lead (just 2.5% of delegates awarded at that time).

Even a sustained 30% margin of victory beginging today and continuing through the end of the season only has her catching Barack at the end of April. To catch Barack in March she needs to win by 40% of pledged delegates starting today.

The numbers just aren't there.

Chris is a top flight Dem leader here in Ohio,,,,, and has taken a very public and firm stand against some power politicos here in SE Ohio who have been involved in some truly awful local campaigning,,,,, and they all happen to be Clinton folks.
Chris is totally focused on restoring a credible and viable Democratic party statewide,,,,,, too many years of Republican officeholders that make even the Bushies blush with shame. Chris will support whichever candidate will help do that in the fall election,,,,,, my guess is that will be Obama.
Don't be too hard on the Clintons in re Ohio,,, they did years of groundwork that enabled Strickland and Brown to lead the state clean out of Republicans in the last election,,,, and folks know that. One of the clean outees, as it were, was the former Secy of State, Blackwell, Mr Voter Disenfranchisement hisself, who went out of his way to deliver Ohio to Bushie in 04.

What's the source for the poll watcher rejection story?

A little off topic, but is that Zogby poll right? Are Clinton and Obama really tied at 44%? That's a sizable shift from yesterday...

THIS IS EXCELLENT NEWS!!! FOR HILLARY!!!!

Look. At. The. Math.

Hillary can't win. The press would be treating Obama like Huckabee right now if he had lost 11 straight contests, and yet here they are with their "Comeback Kid" stories already written up.

If she doesn't win HUGE tonight, in real delegate totals, then she hasn't won anything. The numbers don't lie. But the press doesn't want to see this end, and I'm sure TPM Election Central will fall right in line and carry on with this fantasy that she's still got a chance.

By God, if such a chance exists, the press is going to give it to her.

8% in each? That's an interesting, sort random number. Not 5, not 10. I wonder where it comes from. Is this some sort of super delegate negotiated threshold?

I'll probably regret this...but I'm asking sincerely.

Can someone please explain how she cannot win...no matter what, as some in this thread are suggesting.

For the sake of discussion, let's say she does as stated she needs to...she wins in tx and oh by 8% each. What would the delegate count look like at that point? Would she make up any ground at all? If she did, why is it not possible for her win in the states left?

Genuinely curious. If there is a site I could look at instead of making you all do the leg work for me, that'd be fine too!

Thanks.

8%?

Not 6% or 9%?

Talk about a number picked out some nether region.

And what if it's 5% in TX and 15% in Ohio?

Look, a number doesn't acquire magical properties because it falls out of someone's mouth, or wherever.

Look, the real issue in the end is not the pledged delegate count, or popular vote count, or whatever, but the quality of the arguments for a candidate that can be presented to superdelegates after the entire primary process is completed.

They will decide the contest, and the persuasiveness of the arguments will be the key.

THIS IS EXCELLENT NEWS!! FOR HILLARY!!!

8% or more in OH will happen ... even with my rosy colored Hillary glasses on, I don't see winning by 8% in TX as a possibility, but I can see her getting it by 6%. Not that it matters, but RI could go for HC by as many as 15% ...

At the end of the day, it's not going to matter because once Clinton has won every "big state" contest the supers will line up with her and carry her to victory.

Edwards endorsement won't hurt either ...

Richardson can go $*&%&^ himself - clearly he thinks he's going to be the big O's VP ...

wah Obamaniacs wah ...

Low turnout in Central Ohio is most certainly not good for Obama. One of the local alternative papers that came out last thursday gave Obama a 52-31 lead in Central Ohio.

I think Hillary will pull all the surprises today and win by more than 10% in OH and 7% in TX and then march on to get the nomination. I do not see how Obama will comeback from tonight's defeat. His momentum has hit the peak and started to die starting this week. He has nothing left in his bag to offer and bring the energy back into his campaign.

He made some major blunder in going so strong with his message of meeting with the foes (now saying he will not meet with Hamas). He was so much speaking against NAFTA, turning out it to be a political position. So, in the end, he is no different than the rest, except that he has a thinner resume. Obama is done this weak. Hillary proved to be someone who is so strong that survived so many blows and still standing and probably come out as the winner like Rocky Balboa.

I think Hillary will pull all the surprises today and win by more than 10% in OH and 7% in TX and then march on to get the nomination.

By the way, why is the screwed-up login /commenting system STILL not fixed? Is Mark Penn in charge of it? ;)

Obama will lose today, and will no longer be neck to neck with Hillary, there are still lots of primaries left all the way to Puerto Rico. There is a lot of chance to win the pledged delegates. It is now possible for Hillary to win by 30/40% points in the upcoming primaries, because Obama has been exposed badly this week. I doubt he can win more than 27% in any primaries onwards.

Obama said he makes good judgment, but says he made a boneheaded decision to buy property from Rezko's wife? He keeping his links with Rezko all this time does not reflect good judgment.

He lied to the Americans about the meeting with Canadians by his adviser, and said that is what he knew then and this is what he knows now - a strategy of same old politics. So he is like the same old politicians but trying to portray him as someone different is just playing with the emotion and hopes of Americans.

He wants to us to believe that he is somebody who he is not. It would have been nice to know that he is what he is saying he is.

Do you mean voter registration cards are getting stamped wrong?

It may depend on what city you live in, since I'm not positive that every place in TX uses the same balloting system, but you don't stamp a ballot in Dallas. It's essentially a scantron like machine programmed to read black permanent marker.

You do get your voter's registration card stamped, and you get a stamp by your name on their list of registered voters. But you can just present your driver's license. You don't actually need to bring the voter's registration card.

You guys do know that it takes 2,025 delegates to win, right? That's it's not just the candidate with the highest number? If Obama goes to the convention with less than 2,025, that means he didn't get enough votes to win. The only rationale I've seen for Hillary dropping out is that she will "destroy" the party. I have yet to see a single factual argument on which this is based. Apparently, we're not supposed to follow the rules of the convention, but instead hand the nomination to Obama because his 20-year old supporters who have been Democrats for about two months will be heartbroken if he loses.

I'd like to know the last time a contested convention "destroyed" a party. The only destroying will be done by all of those Obama supporters who walk away from the party because their little adventure didn't work out the way they wanted, all the while pointing the finger at Hillary.

judging from the talking heads on the cable shows my guess is Obama is doing really well based on the exit pollings.

there hasnt been a single reference to a hillary landslide win anywhere.

wishfull thinking??

Facts: Obama is ahead in the primary election. The super delegates will not throw small donors, large numbers of activists, and large numbers of new voters into the trash bin to appease the Clintons. Super delegates do not like to vote for their own political suicide. Democratic Party elders will pressure for an end--just so Hillary doesn't get to say again that McCain is somehow better than Obama.

The adventure is over. Hillary lost. We're just waiting for the media and for Hillary to admit it.