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SurveyUSA: Obama Up By 8 Points In North Carolina Primary
A SurveyUSA poll of North Carolina released last night gives Barack Obama a 49%-41% lead for this May 6 primary.
From the internals: Obama leads 78%-17% among black voters, while Hillary Clinton leads 52%-35% among whites — a less racially-polarized result than we saw in Mississippi.
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NC has been pro Obama since the start of this year, it is so annoying when the MSM pretends she has a chance to win in NC.
March 12, 2008 8:47 AM | Reply | Permalink
Last I checked, 49-41 equals 8.
March 12, 2008 8:52 AM | Reply | Permalink
Joe,
You're absolutely right. SurveyUSA currently shows an 8-point margin. Kinda, sorta.
We now know that SurveyUSA has been pretty-much spot-on with its predictions of the white vote, and that like most other polls, it's consistently underestimated the extent of Obama's support among black voters (a problem that diminishes in its final surveys before each election, as undecideds come down off the fence). It's safe to presume that Obama will garner at least 85% of the black vote - last night, for example, he pulled in 90% in Mississippi.
SurveyUSA is predicting that 32% of voters in North Carolina will be black - and its accuracy this cycle is largely a result of its spot-on turnout predictions, produced by asking voters whether they'll be casting ballots and not by massaging data to fit pre-existing models. If that figure's accurate, this poll's predicting something like a 12-point Obama win.
March 12, 2008 8:59 AM | Reply | Permalink
I think its turn out is correct in terms of the younger section but i think its going to go more for Obama then it says,we are packed with colleges. Also there are quite a few cities that are going to go heavy Obama, one city that is most likely going to offset a lot of the western area is Asheville. If you dont know that city is extremely Liberal.
March 12, 2008 9:09 AM | Reply | Permalink
D'oh! The typo has been fixed to read as 8 points.
March 12, 2008 9:35 AM | Reply | Permalink
So Clinton leads amongst the "Deliverence" wing of the Democratic Party . . . That combined readily with the corporate controlled portion of the party means she is is going to loose North Carolina by how much?
Clinton's real problem is that Obama's early running to the right of her right of the center of the road approach has has the artifical human's all in a quandry.
Additionally, the continual fear-mongering and nastiness of Clinton's corporate-sponsored campaign does not play as well with flesh and blood American's . . . Mostly cuz they're and fodder in warfare and lack the ecomonies of scale to turn a buck from bloodshed . . . As Obama's Bill-Clintonesque "We feel one another's pain".
Frankly, I no longer care which Republican is going to win the Democrat Party's Presidential nomination. I want to read about the Senate and Congressional races. DEMs are showing up over two for every one REP at the polls. We will have a President registered as a DEM for the next four years. It is the make-up of Senate and the Supreme Court that is the isuue now and through November 2008.
March 12, 2008 9:13 AM | Reply | Permalink
I have no doubt that Obama will win my home state. Remember that NC Dems nominated African Amercian Charlotte Mayor Harvey Gantt twice against Jesse Helms (he also gave him a tougher fight than anyone else). Lots of colleges, fairly well-educated population. Almost all racists here have already become Republicans.
I look forward to taking my kids to hear him speak.
March 12, 2008 9:25 AM | Reply | Permalink
I can't find the actual vote count but it is possible for a 9 point difference to be correct as the result of rounding. For example, 49.4 - 40.5 gives a difference of 8.9.
March 12, 2008 9:35 AM | Reply | Permalink
What about the Indian American vs. Jewish vote?
The Asian vs Eastern European vote?
I'm so sick of this black vs white crap. Enough already. Majority rules, no matter what their race is.
Barack is winning more popular votes, delegates, and states. Why does it matter what their race is? Are they less important if they are white?
Subtle ignorance is everywhere.
March 12, 2008 9:38 AM | Reply | Permalink
It's the Clintons. They're been trying to define Obama as the "black candidate" since the beginning.
Even now, Clinton won't punish Ferraro because she's doing her job: making race the primary issue of the campaign.
March 12, 2008 9:44 AM | Reply | Permalink
Well said. Couldn't agree with you more.
March 12, 2008 9:50 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yes, but don't forget that PA is bigger than NC, so therefore NC doesn't count. Also the densely populated cities do not count because they tend to have a lot of those pesky AA and latte voters. Please also note that TX has been removed from the list of BIG states (their delegates do not count, but their population does - we won that, I mean popular vote is important if it's in a BIG state, which this isn't - at this point, but it may be by the time of the convention in Denver, if they qualify, otherwise we expect them to be rejected and denounced).
March 12, 2008 9:47 AM | Reply | Permalink
Great point, Texas is no longer a big state. It always goes Republican anyway.
It only mattered a week ago. Now PA speaks for the nation.
PA is what all Americans want, so whatever they do there, that's what the DNC should do.
Oh and seat FL and MI too because that's only fair for Hillary.
March 12, 2008 10:17 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'm wondering how much the 17% AA vote that Clinton's winning right now is going to drop because of the Ferraro dust-up.
March 12, 2008 10:01 AM | Reply | Permalink
As a former Raleigh resident, I expect Obama to blow her out in NC. The Raleigh/Durham/Chapel Hill triangle is packed with not just college students, but boasts more PhDs per capita than just about anywhere in the country. The cities are pretty liberal and out in the country are huge black populations. Now if only Edwards will get off his duff and give Obama an endorsement.
March 12, 2008 10:17 AM | Reply | Permalink
There is 52 University's in NC. according to http://statelibrary.dcr.state.nc.us/library/univers.htm
According to http://www.ncccs.cc.nc.us/colleges_map.aspx
There is 58 community colleges in NC.
March 12, 2008 10:35 AM | Reply | Permalink
A slight setback in MS thanks to Repub meddling in the 1st CD limits Obama to +5 in MS (the campaign had counted on +7). Still a win is a win and a gain is a gain and and a step along the path. Plus the pop vote should top another +100K. On to PA, and the tax return release (maybe). Obama should use the time to get out among the people, and let them get to know him, then the rest will take care of itself. Oh, and some more superd.s wouldn't hurt either.
March 12, 2008 10:47 AM | Reply | Permalink
Doh, sorry meant to say 4th CD. My bad.
March 12, 2008 11:05 AM | Reply | Permalink
Why is polling by race allowed. Isn't it just a form of racial profiling! What ever happened to one person one vote. If the aim is to create a color blind equal society, then why are polling firms allowed to engage in polling segregation tactics.
March 12, 2008 11:28 AM | Reply | Permalink
"Why is polling by race allowed."
Allowed? How could we prevent it? This is still a free country, despite the best attempts of the Bush administration.
March 12, 2008 12:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, another predominately Black state. Big deal.
Hillary's up 19 POINTs in Penn., a BIG state.
AND even with Miss. & Wyom. wins, if election had been winner-take-all, as IT WILL BE in the general election, Hillary is way ahead of Obama still.
Rae
March 12, 2008 12:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
The only categories Hillary is way ahead in is arrogance and moral unfitness.
March 12, 2008 2:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
A little less racially polarized than Mississippi but still very racially polarized. Unfortunately that seems to be the theme of this election and that is very bad news for everyone except the Republicans.
March 12, 2008 1:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeeehaw! I'm taking a ride on the Rae Spin Machine! More fun than a weekend in vegas with four packs o smokes, six sets of nylons, some rubbers and a fist full o dollars!
"Yeah, another predominately Black state. Big deal."
Last I checked, North Carolina is about 25 percent Af Am. But thanks for your patronization of a significant portion of the base.
"Hillary's up 19 POINTs in Penn., a BIG state."
Sigh.
Look, I'm going to let you down easy on this one. See, the funny thing is... dirt don't vote. The Bushies were making the same argument about all that "Red Expanse" after the 2004 election.
What matters is, ah, voters. Oh, what's that? Why, the populations statistics? Really? Well, let's take a look:
PA: 12,281,054
NC: 8,049,313
I'll save you the math - PA is the 6th most populous state, NC is the 10th. Pennsylvania has 158 delegates at stake. North Carolina has 134 delegates at stake.
Even more disappointing for your girl that NC doesn't let Republicans vote in the Dem primary. But they do let Independents. Care to make a wager which way they're heading?
She's up 19 points in Penn? I wouldn't want to have to limbo under that bar. She all but hung herself with two weeks in TX and OH. I can't wait to see what happens with over a month.
"AND even with Miss. & Wyom. wins, if election had been winner-take-all, as IT WILL BE in the general election, Hillary is way ahead of Obama still."
It bears repeating, if my aunt had balls, she'd be my uncle.
March 12, 2008 2:54 PM | Reply | Permalink