And yet, when Hillary wins Pennsylvania by 4 points or so, and cuts into Obama's delegate lead by about 5 delegates total - making her nomination that much more impossible given how few delegates there will be left to win - nobody will be talking about how frequently Obama keeps closing double-digit gaps literally in a matter of days.

It will be all about the myth of Hillary's momentum and her strategy to win the nomination, even though it will be a mathematic impossibility at that point.

she had a huge lead in texas and ohio too.

this is the pattern: Hillary has a huge lead initially, then, you know, they actually start campaigning and that lead closes and gets tighter and before you know it, its a competetive race.

i agree the gap will close. i also suspect Penn will go like Ohio. hopefully we will see proper expectations management from Team Obama.

And yet, when Hillary wins Pennsylvania by 4 points or so, and cuts into Obama's delegate lead by about 5 delegates total - making her nomination that much more impossible given how few delegates there will be left to win - nobody will be talking about how frequently Obama keeps closing double-digit gaps literally in a matter of days.

It will be all about the myth of Hillary's momentum and her strategy to win the nomination, even though it will be a mathematic impossibility at that point.

I have nothing to add. This is just so spot on as to bear repeating -- verbatim.

Anyone who thinks Hillary is ready to be CinC needs to read this article. Basically, it shows that Judging from how she manages her campaign Hillary has a lot in common with GWBush when it comes to managing complex problems. We know her track record with healthcare was a colossal failure and so was her judgment about taking this country to war. Managing complex problems is simply not her forte no matter how wonky she is about policy. Hillary will stick with folks just like Dubya does on the basis of loyalty independent of competence worst of all she can't control Bill whatsoever, according to this article she has a blindspot where he is concerned...here is an excerpt:

questions lingered about how she managed her campaign, with the internal sniping and second-guessing undermining her well-cultivated image as a steady-at-the-wheel chief executive surrounded by a phalanx of loyal and efficient aides.

“She hasn’t managed anything as complex as this before; that’s the problem with senators,” said James A. Thurber, a professor of government at American University who is an expert on presidential management. “She wasn’t as decisive as she should have been. And it’s a legitimate question to ask: Under great pressure from two different factions, can she make some hard decisions and move ahead? It seems to just fester. She doesn’t seem to know how to stop it or want to stop it.”

Insular management style
Over the last month, Mrs. Clinton, of New York, has become much more involved in the day-to-day operation of her campaign. In addition to Ms. Williams, she brought in two experienced political hands from her husband’s White House — Doug Sosnik, who was a political director, and Steve Ricchetti, a deputy chief of staff.

And Ms. Williams has sought to calm tensions in the headquarters through steps like opening the morning conference call to more aides to foster a greater sense of teamwork. One of her first acts, aides said, was to instruct Mark Penn — Mrs. Clinton’s chief strategist and a polarizing figure in the campaign — to stay off television.

Still, interviews with campaign aides, associates and friends suggest that Mrs. Clinton, at least until February, was a detached manager. Juggling the demands of being a candidate, she paid little attention to detail, delegated decisions large and small and deferred to advisers on critical questions. Mrs. Clinton accepted — or seemed unaware of — the intense factionalism and feuding that often paralyzed her campaign and that prevented her aides from reaching consensus on basic questions like what states to fight in and how to go after Mr. Obama, of Illinois.

Mrs. Clinton showed a tendency toward an insular management style, relying on a coterie of aides who have worked for her for years, her aides and associates said. Her choice of lieutenants — and her insistence on staying with them even when friends urged her to shake things up — was blamed by some associates for the campaign’s woes. Again and again, the senator was portrayed as a manager who valued loyalty and familiarity over experience and expertise.

Mrs. Clinton stood by Mr. Penn and Patti Solis Doyle, who was until last month her campaign manager, even as her campaign was at risk of letting Mr. Obama sew up the nomination. When some of her closest supporters pressed her to replace them — arguing that the two were clearly struggling with their jobs and had become divisive figures in the campaign — she responded by saying she would “think about it.”

From one friend to another
When Mrs. Clinton finally pushed out Ms. Solis Doyle, she chose Ms. Williams — like Ms. Solis Doyle, an old friend who had never before managed a presidential campaign.

Mrs. Clinton’s ability to manage the one person with whom she spoke most often, former President Bill Clinton, was also questioned by some of her advisers and supporters. Mr. Clinton moved in his own orbit — he heatedly argued with his wife’s advisers who wanted to write off South Carolina, defying them to campaign there — and took no direction from the campaign about what to say or where to go, some of them said. (Mr. Obama defeated Mrs. Clinton in the South Carolina Democratic primary by nearly 29 percentage points.)

Several aides, donors and supporters, who requested anonymity to recount private conversations with the candidate, said they had warned Mrs. Clinton that her husband’s attacks on Mr. Obama were demeaning to her and hurting her campaign. Mrs. Clinton replied that her husband became “carried away” at times but that she did not see any real harm from his approach, they said.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/23552134/

Unbeleiveable. No way is Hillary ready to lead on day one. Heck Solis and Penn are to Hillary what Rumsfeld and Brownie were to Bush.

There aren't many younger voters in PA--it's the oldest state in the union--hence Hillary's stronger showing.

I'm with Steve LaBonne on this.

Why is it that all the "definitive" states keep being ones that Hillary is the strongest in? I mean yeah, Ohio and Pennsylvania are swing states, but so is Missouri, so is Virginia this year (two consecutive wildly popular dem governors and of course jim webb), and so is Colorado. I'm not saying PA doesn't matter, but to say that if she wins PA then all of a sudden she has a legitimate argument for the nomination, that's silly. If Obama wins big tonight in MS, then her gains in Ohio are nullified.

In the states where they start, pre-campaigning, within 10 points of each other in the polls, he trounces her (VA, MD, SC). In the states where she starts with a 20 point lead, she usually wins by slim margins (OH and CA being exceptions). So explain to me again why she's the more electable candidate across the country?

I grew up in Ohio and have lived in Pennsylvania and I want to make a prediction for April 22 based on a single aspect of my experience there: When you get off the beaten path a little bit in both states, the level of blue-collar, uninformed, virulent white racism is significantly lower in PA than Ohio. I know there's a million other factors and a lot can happen between now and then, but I think Obama will do better in Pennsylvania than Ohio.

Hillary will lose Pennsylvania. Shock and Awe is awaiting.

American's there will finally see how Hillary is running her campaign and begin to shift to Senator Obama.

That SHIFT started today with Obama's team pointing out the exaggerations of the Clinton campaign on her foreign policy experience.

If Hillary continues to go negative -- that will hurt her even more. Already over half of the Democratic Party feels about her the way they fell about George W Bush -- she's on her way out looking very BAD.

Bill Clinton -- if you want a good legacy, you'd best tell Hillary to COOL IT!

"The new SurveyUSA poll of Pennsylvania gives Hillary Clinton a very healthy lead of 55%-36% for the April 22 primary."

Now where's the Zogby poll showing Obama up by 1?

I don't see him squeaking out a win in pa. He can campaign all he wants and the demographics are too in favor of clinton. He has to spin the insurmountable lead and that this is clinton country and that she should be wiping him out. He's got to play the expectation game better. I see between a 5 and 10 point clinton win.

I agree with the comment from TaraV. Fine, Clinton wins in Penn. Obama should take a cue from Hillary, and spend a couple of days campaigning in KY and NC and certainly IN, NOW. Let it be known that we are OK with Hillary winning in Penn, she is supposed to win there. But, Obama is going to win the nomination because he will have the most votes and elected delegates.

In other words- Please stop letting Hillary control the definition of the playing field. The media is buying it hook, line and sinker. Besides, BIG rallies in these other states will still make national news, will help Obama's chances in KY and IN, and give the perception of the inevitableness of his nomination.

Go Obama!

Obama ran a crap campaign in Ohio which did almost nothing to address people's real concerns here. (Personally, I think they decided to punt Ohio and go for Texas- a reasonable choice at that time.) People in Ohio voted for Hillary just because they remember better times from her husband's administration, not because she really offered them anything much herself. If Obama runs the right kind of campaign he can come very close in PA and maybe even pull it out. But it needs to start the minute the speeches are over in Mississippi, and it needs to be based on lots of specifics about jobs, jobs, jobs. And it needs to be HIM talking about jobs, not surrogates, in every corner of the state. If they don't do this it's a wasted opportunity to get this nonsense over with.

There aren't many younger voters in PA--it's the oldest state in the union--hence Hillary's stronger showing.

http://www.prb.org/Articles/2003/WhichUSStatesAretheOldest.aspx

It is an interesting point to ponder.
And a nice demographic that I think Barack Obama can appeal too...

Maybe it is time for his Nana to speak up in and ad? I know she is shy, but that would be decisively cool.

Make no mistake, Hillary will win PA.

Hillary will win PA and then go all the way to the convention without even a single snowball's chance in hell of becoming the nominee.

But she will win PA.

From the desk of:

Mark Poison Penn

The Clinton Camp have deployed Geraldine Ferraro to Pennsylvania to make the case with the voters that it is time for a change. They should not continue their historical pattern of always electing Presidents of the USA just because they happen to be black. Geraldine will plead with the voters to think outside the box, and make history by electing the first white president in over a century. Sure we know that they are comfortable with having had only black Presidents of the USA during their lifetimes, but why not give a white person a fair shot at the job.

Change we can all believe in.

nationally..... 77% of people believe Hillary will win Pennsylvania primary by huge numbers:):)

only 23% believe obama will win....:):)

First off, I live, breath, sleep and eat Obamaa and I live in WA. I did not even bother to send in my primary ballot - it was meaningless. But you damn well better believe I went and caucused for him. Use TX if you insist but WA has no place in this argument.

Second, your assumption of pulling even to within 50 PLEOs must mean you are including the bogus votes in FL and MI. Revotes would ultimately lead to some sort of split decision.

Finally, the logic of discounting a caucus delegate as undemocratic but accpeting the validity of a super delegate is seriously flawed. You may think the caucuses don't represent the people as well as a primaries but they damn well represent the people better than one individual.

Caught up in the excitement of Hillmentum, Senator Clinton's supporter writes:

"GO HILLARY GO HILLARY GO HILLARY!!!!"

*************
At the 1993 rally in Grant Park saluting the Bulls' third championship, power forward Horace Grant mentioned a similar New York chant. "You know how, during their introductions, the Knicks would play that really loud song . . , 'Go New York, Go New York Go/Go New York, Go New York Go'? [Pause.] Well . . . they're gone."

And the crowd in Chicago just laughed and laughed.

Admiral Fallon's resignation is going to put Iran on front page. Wonder how that's going to affect Hillary, considering her Iran vote.

Right, and I'll say it again just to get people thinking about it. I will be protesting on the streets of Denver to ensure the pledged delegates are not overturned. Me - a 40 year old mother of three who has never been involved in a political campaign or protest.

As an Obama supporter, Hillary's selection of Sinbad as her running mate makes me a little nervous. With that easy smile and bulletproof diplomatic/crisis handling resume of his, it will be hard for Obama to find someone of the same calibre, someone like Hillary who's been tested, experienced and ready to lead ON DAY ONE.
Oh wait, Obama/Crowe 08!

That said, I think it's wonderful that Sinbad is relevant again. I'd never thought he was that funny, but some of the quips he rattled off to The Sleuth had me rollin'.

WHERE ARE WE GOING TO EAT!? LOL

i have to blame the DNC for all this hate ....the primary system they have is a horror story ... all these months of campaigning ...and strippimg the the fourth and eighth largest states of their delagates.... .caucus's where 2 percent of voters pick the winner.....open primaries where outsiders can pick the winner.......super delagates where the winner is picked for political reasons...proportional distribution of delagates ....this set up is geared for no one to win 2025 delagates ....HRC wins 3 states obama wins one state and she only gains 7 delagates....what kind of genius came up with this math .....the more candidates are on the road the more they have to attack to try to separate themselves ...the more their electorate gets hateful and start saying things that are outrageous...15 months and still going ...thay cant keep saying the same thing so they resort to throwing things against the wall to see what sticks.....DNC created this mess and deserve to be laughed at....maybe this should go to the convention and tear this dem party apart so it can be rebuilt with some sanity and common sense

That's not a big enough lead Hillary. If Obama wins 55%-45% in Mississippi today, then Hillary needs to win more than 63% of all the remaining delegates to pull even with Obama in pledged delegates, and guess what..........

PUERTO RICO USES A CAUCUS SYSTEM.....

MANY THIS RACE IS SO OVER

Too bad they don't vote there for 6 WEEKS!!!!

Just to get a sense of how long that is in this 24-hour news cycle primary....6 weeks ago was before Super Tuesday!!

Just a quick example....6 weeks before the election in Wisconsin, Hillary was ahead in polls by between 5-15%. Obama won by 17%.

In Ohio, Clinton was up 20+ points 6 weeks before the election. She won by 10.

Let PA voters see both HRC and BO up close for a few weeks and see what happens. The past has shown these early polls to be instructive only as a baseline for Hillary. Would any of her supporters care to wager with me that she will maintain a 19% lead on election day in PA?

any takers?

OK. Here is how Hillary can win: THe republican race is over. Hillary cannot beat McCain. The republicans show up big time for Hillary. Period.

I did not read all the previous posts so if someone has already pointed this out, I didn;t mean to plagerize your idea.

100 REASONS NOT TO VOTE FOR HILLARY CLINTON

Please help spread it around....it'll give you something to do while waiting for PA.

>>I would much rather there be sincere controversies within the democratic party over policy than have several more weeks where the only thing the talking heads have to talk about are the daily snipes from campaign suregates and the latest ad.

There is nothing to talk about. The Obama has won. The race is over. It's virtually certain that he's going to win pledged delegates, most states and popular vote and there is absolutely no way the superdelegates are going to steer the Democratic Party into an iceberg by overturning it.

The MSM is going to continue portraying this as a neck and neck race until the very end, because the primaries have been a ratings boon and a cash cow for them. They're not going to kill their golden goose .. particularly now that the two candidates are starting to sling mud. Things are just now getting interesting for them.

But make no mistake about it .. this is just a dog and pony show at this point. Hillary has been beaten by the superior candidate. She's been outsmarted and outmaneuvered at every turn. She's just hoping hoping that Obama says or does something Gary Hart stupid between now and the convention.

Why doesn't the Obama team start hammering Clinton on her false claim of "experience." She has convinced people that she has the experience of governing when she does not. No matter how close she was to the decision making (and that is even debateable), she did not make the decisions. Bill did. So why is she getting away with the experience frame? I don't get it.

Register online in PA by March 24

http://my.barackobama.com/page/content/pahome

https://www.pavoterservices.state.pa.us/Pages/VoterRegistrationApplication.aspx

Spread the word and GOTV!

Neither Obama or Hillary will get the 2,025 delgates needed for nomination. Therefore, Hillary is banking on winning over the superdelegates for the prize when it goes to the convention. That is your answer from a Hillary supporter.

Hillary:
First female partner of Rose Law Firm
First female Board of Director for Wal-Mart
First female US Senator for New York
Next up:
First female US President

I see that the TV media finally has started thinking that Clinton is the better candidate than Obama after bashing her since Jan 1. Also notice that all the Afro American commentators side with Obama all the time. How racist can you get ?CNN specially is anti Clinton. Donna Brazille, Kelli Goff , Roland Martin, Dan Lothian and Amy Holmes ( who is supposed to be representing the Republicans) always talk against Clinton. Similarly Gwen Ifill ( another Afro American) on PBS and Meet The Press always talks against Clinton. Shame on you all. 50% of the commentators on CNN are Afro Americans and are 100% of the time talking against Clinton.These are the same commentators who would not have any jobs if they were not Afro Americans. Obama should not be made President because he has only 14 months experience in US senate out of which he spent 14 months running for presidency
Executive Level experience is what is needed. and to be president national & International level experience is what is important. Obama has none. Hillary has been in the Senate for 86 month. Also Hillary was Governor's wife in Arkansas for 8 years and later for 8 years' President's wife. She was not just a housewife. Being an attorney herself and a smart politician she was constantly advising Clinton and was his right hand person. Bill was named the best Governor and he was the best President with no deficits and strong economy under his administration and you have to give a lot of credit to her as well for this. Hillary has been to 88 countries representing USA & knows their leaders . Obama been to may be 10. Where is the BEEF? .

DNC ‘s Chairman Dean & Speaker Pelosi and some others, unknowingly devised the most ridiculous method for allocation of delegates rather than using a simple method where WINNER TAKES ALL the delegates in a state . That is the method which was used by the Republicans and they have a winner. Democrats need to use the same method for picking our winner and that is NO ROCKET SCIENCE to understand. The general Election in November will be run like that. The General Election is the Super Bowl and current primaries are the Playoffs. Have you ever heard that the rules for the Playoffs should be different from the rules for the Super Bowl? So let us take the count with WINNER TAKE ALL method. Hillary has already 1741 delegates from the states she has won and Obama has 1218 delegates . If she wins only Pennsylvania out of the remaining states, she will have 1892 delegates and Obama will have 1580. Now tell me who should be on top of the ticket?

The reason Obama needs to make a serious, substance-filled drive for Joe Lunchbucket's vote in PA, even if he can't beat Hillary, is simply that he's going to need Joe's vote in November- and not just in PA. The top three issues in November will be 1) jobs, 2) jobs, and 3) jobs. An effective campaign on the economy will destroy the clueless McCain. Obama needs to provide a lot more meat on that subject than he has done to date (having stuff on his website is not good enough!), and there's no time like the present to start.

Obama is not gonna win the popular vote. Think about it. Puerto Rico has 3 million democrats and 70% are for hillary and 10% are leaning towards hillary. He has not been successful in wooing the Latino vote at all.

Also a member of Jeremiah Wrights Racist Hate Preaching Congregation