And yet, when Hillary wins Pennsylvania by 4 points or so, and cuts into Obama's delegate lead by about 5 delegates total - making her nomination that much more impossible given how few delegates there will be left to win - nobody will be talking about how frequently Obama keeps closing double-digit gaps literally in a matter of days.

It will be all about the myth of Hillary's momentum and her strategy to win the nomination, even though it will be a mathematic impossibility at that point.

she had a huge lead in texas and ohio too.

this is the pattern: Hillary has a huge lead initially, then, you know, they actually start campaigning and that lead closes and gets tighter and before you know it, its a competetive race.

i agree the gap will close. i also suspect Penn will go like Ohio. hopefully we will see proper expectations management from Team Obama.

And yet, when Hillary wins Pennsylvania by 4 points or so, and cuts into Obama's delegate lead by about 5 delegates total - making her nomination that much more impossible given how few delegates there will be left to win - nobody will be talking about how frequently Obama keeps closing double-digit gaps literally in a matter of days.

It will be all about the myth of Hillary's momentum and her strategy to win the nomination, even though it will be a mathematic impossibility at that point.

I have nothing to add. This is just so spot on as to bear repeating -- verbatim.

Anyone who thinks Hillary is ready to be CinC needs to read this article. Basically, it shows that Judging from how she manages her campaign Hillary has a lot in common with GWBush when it comes to managing complex problems. We know her track record with healthcare was a colossal failure and so was her judgment about taking this country to war. Managing complex problems is simply not her forte no matter how wonky she is about policy. Hillary will stick with folks just like Dubya does on the basis of loyalty independent of competence worst of all she can't control Bill whatsoever, according to this article she has a blindspot where he is concerned...here is an excerpt:

questions lingered about how she managed her campaign, with the internal sniping and second-guessing undermining her well-cultivated image as a steady-at-the-wheel chief executive surrounded by a phalanx of loyal and efficient aides.

“She hasn’t managed anything as complex as this before; that’s the problem with senators,” said James A. Thurber, a professor of government at American University who is an expert on presidential management. “She wasn’t as decisive as she should have been. And it’s a legitimate question to ask: Under great pressure from two different factions, can she make some hard decisions and move ahead? It seems to just fester. She doesn’t seem to know how to stop it or want to stop it.”

Insular management style
Over the last month, Mrs. Clinton, of New York, has become much more involved in the day-to-day operation of her campaign. In addition to Ms. Williams, she brought in two experienced political hands from her husband’s White House — Doug Sosnik, who was a political director, and Steve Ricchetti, a deputy chief of staff.

And Ms. Williams has sought to calm tensions in the headquarters through steps like opening the morning conference call to more aides to foster a greater sense of teamwork. One of her first acts, aides said, was to instruct Mark Penn — Mrs. Clinton’s chief strategist and a polarizing figure in the campaign — to stay off television.

Still, interviews with campaign aides, associates and friends suggest that Mrs. Clinton, at least until February, was a detached manager. Juggling the demands of being a candidate, she paid little attention to detail, delegated decisions large and small and deferred to advisers on critical questions. Mrs. Clinton accepted — or seemed unaware of — the intense factionalism and feuding that often paralyzed her campaign and that prevented her aides from reaching consensus on basic questions like what states to fight in and how to go after Mr. Obama, of Illinois.

Mrs. Clinton showed a tendency toward an insular management style, relying on a coterie of aides who have worked for her for years, her aides and associates said. Her choice of lieutenants — and her insistence on staying with them even when friends urged her to shake things up — was blamed by some associates for the campaign’s woes. Again and again, the senator was portrayed as a manager who valued loyalty and familiarity over experience and expertise.

Mrs. Clinton stood by Mr. Penn and Patti Solis Doyle, who was until last month her campaign manager, even as her campaign was at risk of letting Mr. Obama sew up the nomination. When some of her closest supporters pressed her to replace them — arguing that the two were clearly struggling with their jobs and had become divisive figures in the campaign — she responded by saying she would “think about it.”

From one friend to another
When Mrs. Clinton finally pushed out Ms. Solis Doyle, she chose Ms. Williams — like Ms. Solis Doyle, an old friend who had never before managed a presidential campaign.

Mrs. Clinton’s ability to manage the one person with whom she spoke most often, former President Bill Clinton, was also questioned by some of her advisers and supporters. Mr. Clinton moved in his own orbit — he heatedly argued with his wife’s advisers who wanted to write off South Carolina, defying them to campaign there — and took no direction from the campaign about what to say or where to go, some of them said. (Mr. Obama defeated Mrs. Clinton in the South Carolina Democratic primary by nearly 29 percentage points.)

Several aides, donors and supporters, who requested anonymity to recount private conversations with the candidate, said they had warned Mrs. Clinton that her husband’s attacks on Mr. Obama were demeaning to her and hurting her campaign. Mrs. Clinton replied that her husband became “carried away” at times but that she did not see any real harm from his approach, they said.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/23552134/

Unbeleiveable. No way is Hillary ready to lead on day one. Heck Solis and Penn are to Hillary what Rumsfeld and Brownie were to Bush.

There aren't many younger voters in PA--it's the oldest state in the union--hence Hillary's stronger showing.

I'm with Steve LaBonne on this.

Why is it that all the "definitive" states keep being ones that Hillary is the strongest in? I mean yeah, Ohio and Pennsylvania are swing states, but so is Missouri, so is Virginia this year (two consecutive wildly popular dem governors and of course jim webb), and so is Colorado. I'm not saying PA doesn't matter, but to say that if she wins PA then all of a sudden she has a legitimate argument for the nomination, that's silly. If Obama wins big tonight in MS, then her gains in Ohio are nullified.

In the states where they start, pre-campaigning, within 10 points of each other in the polls, he trounces her (VA, MD, SC). In the states where she starts with a 20 point lead, she usually wins by slim margins (OH and CA being exceptions). So explain to me again why she's the more electable candidate across the country?

I grew up in Ohio and have lived in Pennsylvania and I want to make a prediction for April 22 based on a single aspect of my experience there: When you get off the beaten path a little bit in both states, the level of blue-collar, uninformed, virulent white racism is significantly lower in PA than Ohio. I know there's a million other factors and a lot can happen between now and then, but I think Obama will do better in Pennsylvania than Ohio.

Hillary will lose Pennsylvania. Shock and Awe is awaiting.

American's there will finally see how Hillary is running her campaign and begin to shift to Senator Obama.

That SHIFT started today with Obama's team pointing out the exaggerations of the Clinton campaign on her foreign policy experience.

If Hillary continues to go negative -- that will hurt her even more. Already over half of the Democratic Party feels about her the way they fell about George W Bush -- she's on her way out looking very BAD.

Bill Clinton -- if you want a good legacy, you'd best tell Hillary to COOL IT!

"The new SurveyUSA poll of Pennsylvania gives Hillary Clinton a very healthy lead of 55%-36% for the April 22 primary."

Now where's the Zogby poll showing Obama up by 1?

I don't see him squeaking out a win in pa. He can campaign all he wants and the demographics are too in favor of clinton. He has to spin the insurmountable lead and that this is clinton country and that she should be wiping him out. He's got to play the expectation game better. I see between a 5 and 10 point clinton win.

I agree with the comment from TaraV. Fine, Clinton wins in Penn. Obama should take a cue from Hillary, and spend a couple of days campaigning in KY and NC and certainly IN, NOW. Let it be known that we are OK with Hillary winning in Penn, she is supposed to win there. But, Obama is going to win the nomination because he will have the most votes and elected delegates.

In other words- Please stop letting Hillary control the definition of the playing field. The media is buying it hook, line and sinker. Besides, BIG rallies in these other states will still make national news, will help Obama's chances in KY and IN, and give the perception of the inevitableness of his nomination.

Go Obama!

Obama ran a crap campaign in Ohio which did almost nothing to address people's real concerns here. (Personally, I think they decided to punt Ohio and go for Texas- a reasonable choice at that time.) People in Ohio voted for Hillary just because they remember better times from her husband's administration, not because she really offered them anything much herself. If Obama runs the right kind of campaign he can come very close in PA and maybe even pull it out. But it needs to start the minute the speeches are over in Mississippi, and it needs to be based on lots of specifics about jobs, jobs, jobs. And it needs to be HIM talking about jobs, not surrogates, in every corner of the state. If they don't do this it's a wasted opportunity to get this nonsense over with.

There aren't many younger voters in PA--it's the oldest state in the union--hence Hillary's stronger showing.

http://www.prb.org/Articles/2003/WhichUSStatesAretheOldest.aspx

It is an interesting point to ponder.
And a nice demographic that I think Barack Obama can appeal too...

Maybe it is time for his Nana to speak up in and ad? I know she is shy, but that would be decisively cool.

Make no mistake, Hillary will win PA.

Hillary will win PA and then go all the way to the convention without even a single snowball's chance in hell of becoming the nominee.

But she will win PA.

From the desk of:

Mark Poison Penn

The Clinton Camp have deployed Geraldine Ferraro to Pennsylvania to make the case with the voters that it is time for a change. They should not continue their historical pattern of always electing Presidents of the USA just because they happen to be black. Geraldine will plead with the voters to think outside the box, and make history by electing the first white president in over a century. Sure we know that they are comfortable with having had only black Presidents of the USA during their lifetimes, but why not give a white person a fair shot at the job.

Change we can all believe in.

nationally..... 77% of people believe Hillary will win Pennsylvania primary by huge numbers:):)

only 23% believe obama will win....:):)

First off, I live, breath, sleep and eat Obamaa and I live in WA. I did not even bother to send in my primary ballot - it was meaningless. But you damn well better believe I went and caucused for him. Use TX if you insist but WA has no place in this argument.

Second, your assumption of pulling even to within 50 PLEOs must mean you are including the bogus votes in FL and MI. Revotes would ultimately lead to some sort of split decision.

Finally, the logic of discounting a caucus delegate as undemocratic but accpeting the validity of a super delegate is seriously flawed. You may think the caucuses don't represent the people as well as a primaries but they damn well represent the people better than one individual.

Caught up in the excitement of Hillmentum, Senator Clinton's supporter writes:

"GO HILLARY GO HILLARY GO HILLARY!!!!"

*************
At the 1993 rally in Grant Park saluting the Bulls' third championship, power forward Horace Grant mentioned a similar New York chant. "You know how, during their introductions, the Knicks would play that really loud song . . , 'Go New York, Go New York Go/Go New York, Go New York Go'? [Pause.] Well . . . they're gone."

And the crowd in Chicago just laughed and laughed.