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SurveyUSA: Hillary Ahead 2-1 In Kentucky Primary

The first poll of the Kentucky Democratic primary confirms everyone's suspicion that this state is set to go to Hillary Clinton in a big way. The numbers from SurveyUSA: Clinton 58%, Obama 29%.

The Kentucky primary will be held on May 20 — the same day as the primary in Oregon, where Obama is expected to win.


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Interestingly, 50% of likely voters are pro-life. And they are self-identified Democrats. I realize that some dems are pro-life, but 50%? Is that a Kentucky thing?

Well, that isn't as simple as it sounds. I am an openly gay man who would literally fight to uphold the right to privacy. Your body is yours and what you do to yourself or with other consenting adults is your business and only your business. I think, as is legal precedent in the US, that that right to privacy is certainly extended to cover abortion.

Yet, personally, I am troubled by the idea of abortion. We don't know when life begins. Science cannot explain exactly *why* a seed sprouts. I do know three women (that I know of) who have had abortions and they all admit it was the hardest decision they've ever made. The circumstances were just not there to adequately provide for a child.

They admit, and I agree with them (though I certainly did not say this to them), that they should have been more careful. But, as I know very well, we are human and accidents happen.

I certainly believe that it should be a last resort and not a form of birth control. And although, if asked in a survey, I wouldn't describe myself as pro-life, I could easily see many people (even Dems, especially in a conservative state like KY) consider themselves such, while not advocating in any way overturning Roe v. Wade and fully believing that abortion should be freely availabe with guaranteed safety.

Why haven't you posted the North Carolina poll? And the recent Gallup poll?

I haven't seen any polls out of Indiana. Do they exist?

Kentucky vendors -- ask for the money upfront! The following takes the biscuit! Senator Clinton is stiffing her health insurance providers. Thanks to Politico for this story.
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0308/9274.html

Guess I've been wrong about Obama's chances all along. If the good folks in Redneckistan prefer Hillary,who am I to argue? Thank god I've seen the light before that slick huckster Barack got my vote. I'm gonna write a big check to Hillary right now....Gotta Go! Incoming Sniper Fire

If the good folks in Redneckistan...

Have you ever been to KY? I think that it is a beautiful part of this fine country and you do it and its good citizens an injustice here. I am disappointed that they do not (yet) see eye to eye with myself and my fellow Obama supporters, but that is no reason to resort to name calling.

By the time Kentucky rolls around it will be a moot point I think. It pretty much ends with Hillary narrowly winning Pennsylvania at best, and Obama kicking her ass in North Carolina, and probably beating her in Indiana. After those there is nowhere else to go, especially with other pro-Obama states remaining, at that point it will be unavoidably obvious (more so that it is already) that she cannot possibly make up the difference.

Alternatively, if she kicks ass in PA, wins in Indiana, and gets close in NC, then this would be the icing on the cake for her momentum.

Yeah, and then we'll shoot down some of those pigs that'll be flying around in the sky and have us a big barbecue.

(No actual flying pigs were harmed in the making of this snark.)

Barbecue at McCain's! ;-)

Alas, in all seriousness that's where many of us fear the celebrations will be come November if Obama wins the primary.

I hear ya. I fear the same thing if Clinton were to become the nominee.

The difference is, I've also begun fearing her actions when she's denied.

Well, this is a good start for Clinton.

8 or 9 more states like Kentucky, and she'll be right back in this thing.

Hmmm...and now my posts are being held for comment.

And I have to sign in every time I post.

Am I being singled out for being too awesome? Or do other commenters have similar problems?

Jesus H, this commenting system is fucked up.

It isn't just you, it has been weeks since they redid their posting system and apparently they have decided not to try to fix the annoying bugs. More annoying than the double-triple login is the inability to preview or edit your blog posts.

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To be exact, it was the Thursday night prior to Super Tuesday, when the "24 hour max" process started, which still is left with broken promises. That's a long time to roll out software and leave so much unfixed and undone! Many people have simply given up and gone away. I myself post here far less than before.

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Why'd you ruin it? We could've made him totally paranoid!

Um, I mean, everything works great for me. I guess they don't like you, billysumday.

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This whole message board system is garbage. I think it's probably just misconfigured, but it should take hours--not weeks--to fix it.

I think that if you have a post with more than one URL in it, you're more likely to get that "held for approval" message or whatever it is. But not always. Maybe it's something about the ratio between the length of the article and the number of URLs in it, as some sort of lame attempt at filtering out spam.

May 20 is a long way away.

Anyone want to put money down that Hillary does not win Kentucky by 29 pts?

She won't be a viable candidate by the KY primary.

Can you say "Huckabee"

I thought you could

-Mr. Rogers

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I'm in.

Whew! I was worried you wouldn't find a Hillary-positive poll, you know, now that it's extremely unlikely she'll win.

Good work!

Take a drive through Kentucky as I did many times, and you'll understand why Hillary leads there overwhelmingly.

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Yeah. THOSE are just the people I want selecting the Democratic nominee.

Billy,

Similar Problems here which often result in an unwanted double post.

Also, why doesn't TPM Headline the HUGE Gallup and NC Leads? You can bet your butt that if HRC was up by 10 in a Gallup poll, TPM would be front-paging that poll all weekend long.

--Reader sick of the bias.

Relax, dude.

TPM headlines won't decide the election.

Gotalife and dembillc will not decide the election.

Oregon and Kentucky will be a wash, and Obama will still win.

you won't decide it either. ;)

OMG, disenfranchisement!!!1!

Kentucky is a wretched hole.

No surprise.

No need to go that far -- but, yeah, this New Yorker is embarrassed for his state.

No need to go that far -- but, yeah, this New Yorker is embarrassed for his state.

Awesome! I guess that means Kentucky will be in play in November. Unless it's a caucus. Then I will be confused.

Ah, the only credible poll.

Sick of the Obama bias too.

woot, 30 more delegates for Clinton!

At this rate, she's only be behind by 100 by the convention!

Go Hill!

Not many people are talking about it explicitly but there is a big chance that the reason HRC is doing so well in places like KY, S. Ohio, W Va, Western MD (the only place in Maryland where Obama got routed) is racism pure and simple. Granted a Dem can win the general without KY and WV. But without Ohio, Pa, and Mo. (and several others that are winnable but where the redneck count is high) it becomes a lot tougher.

I'm in the bag for Obama either way. But can anyone ease my fears that dumbfuck racists will put Ol Man McInsane in the white house?

Sure. Nevada, Iowa, Colorado, New Mexico, New Hampshire, and possibly Virginia and North Carolina.

Right, but it's Appalachia I'm worried about. That covers, in a general sense, the Ohio valley, PA and parts of Virginia. I hate the idea of pinning our hopes on flipping Colorado but losing other... oh well you get the idea.

I cannot assuage your fears, all I can say is these same people would probably not want a woman in power either.

Intolerance is intolerance. We can't worry about what the worst dregs of humanity may or may not do, all we can do is put our best candidate up against McCain, and work hard as Hell to make sure he or she wins.

Earthling,
The racism thing is a media meme. There are a lot of people, many of them white people in KY and NC and PA and IN, who still don't know much about Obama but they've heard of Clinton, so for them it is still the name recognition. They hear terms like muslim and racism and don't bother to find out more because they don't care much. Yet. But if they did find out something about Obama, they would support him.
I don't think it is racism against Obama, only ignorance.

It may seem impossible to those of us so caught up in campaign news, but it is parallel to people not knowing a whole lot about what's going on in basketball, not reading everything they can about the players and the predictions, and who don't hate one team and love another. Basketball fans might be appalled at the choices and the ignorance, but it exists.

There is still time for people in those states to learn more about Obama and then many of those white people so easily written off as racists will vote for him. Plus basketball season might be over by then.

I agree. Well put! Obama will campaign there and this usually improves his polling numbers.

Seriously, Saskatchewan never looked so good if Johnny Mac lands in the oval office. Think of it this way, how else on earth could Nostradamus' predictions come true? Even the Mayans looked into the future and said: "You know what? Just end it in 2012."

OK, just kidding. I'm not leaving. It'd be too much fun to watch John McCain play the fiddle.

Can one polling outfit please survey Indiana? We haven't had a poll since mid-February.

How many delegates are even at stake in Kentucky?

51, and Oregon has 52 where Obama is favored to win.

The only thing that truly depresses me about this news is that Hillary will undoubtedly--mark my words--co-opt "Kentucky Woman" by Neil Diamond as her Kentucky campaign song. That song will be blaring over the speakers as she is doing the clap-clap-point, clap-clap-point thing while walking the stage.

I just know it.

And then my love for all things Neil Diamond will slowly die and fade.

Now I sad.

As a Kentuckian, I suggest to you that she will not win by that margin. Obama will do fine in the larger metro areas of Louisville, Lexington, and probably Northern Kentucky, near Cincinnati. The rural areas, however, are Clinton's demographic...

Buts its a long way off, I suspect Obama will cut into her lead substantially. Just no where near close enough to win.

Eh, Cincinnati's a pretty conservative place too. I'm not getting my hopes up for Kentucky. At least until someone proves to me I should

Obama won big in Cincinnati(Hamilton county). He won't win in Kentucky but it won't be a landslide either.

Wow, really?? Amazing! I didn't think he stood a chance there!

Kentucky is filled with clay-eating Appalachians. Take this from a guy who grew up across the OHio River from them. Mouth-breathers, the lot of them.

Speaking as as someone born and raised in Kentucky who has often been known to breathe with his mouth closed, might I respectfully suggest that that we keep our egregious regionalistic stereotypes under our big ugly hats?

I can just about guarentee you that no one in Kentucky is really paying any attention yet. They just aren't used to having their votes matter in these things. Hell, North Carolina is still kind in denial about the concept.

I mean, come on, if the late states really wanted to be bothered with all this fuss, we'd move 'em up a bit.

Here is an interesting view on a possible HRC campaign tactic (relative to KY and other similiar states) utilizing the Race Chasm metric (states with more than 6% and less than 17% black population) as a "Clinton Firewall" check it out:
http://www.inthesetimes.com/article/3597/the_clinton_firewall/

*****CONGRATULATIONS!!!*******

Kentucky has just been inducted into the

"Primary States of America!"*

*for now.



That New Hampshire Lachrymose stunt is so yesterday.

Weep No More My Lady.

The sun shines bright in the old Kentucky home,
'Tis summer, the darkies are gay;
The corn-top's ripe and the meadow's in the bloom,
While the birds make music all the day.

The young folks roll on the little cabin floor,
All merry, all happy and bright;
By 'n' by Hard Times comes a-knocking at the door,
Then my old Kentucky home, goodnight.

Chorus
Weep no more my lady
Oh! weep no more today!
We will sing one song for the old Kentucky home,
For the Old Kentucky Home far away.

Bill and Hill feel right down home in Old Kentuck!!

The story told by "My Old Kentucky Home" is the lament of a slave sold South that conveyed a message about the cruelty of slavery. Stephen Foster wrote it after reading, and being moved by, Uncle Tom's Cabin.

The Kentucky General Assembly, in an admittedly unusual burst of progressive-mindedness, replaced "darkies" with "people" in the official state song version back in the 50s.

A blow-out victory on what could generally be seen as your own turf doesn't strike me as news, though the margin is pretty substantial. I expect it to close. At this point, I am starting to sense some sort of Appalachian trend towards Clinton, but I'm not sure what, if anything, this signifies.

Funny isn't it, Hillary is only favored in one area in NC, can you guess what Area that is :P

Does anyone doubt that this means that Kentucky is now a swing state? How long before we hear that?

Yeah, I thought a state that was going to go red anyways didn't count?

"As you know, this state has voted for a Clinton before. Twice in fact, and I think together we're gonna once again turn the bluegrass state blue."

- Hillary Clinton over the weekend to a Kentucky rally.

That didn't take long.

I sure hope HRC isn't planning to use KY to slip in the back door of the convention.

You know, I always though Hillary was probably a fan of the 'back door strategy'.

anybody get that feeling Kentucky is starting to count?

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Yee-haw.

Lets face it there is a large swath of the US where race matters more than the rest. Some of those states have a large enough counter population that favors Obama because of his race and he wins big. Some do not and he loses big.
Arkansas, Tennessee, Oklahoma, (not a 'southern' state but I lived there- it is a lot like AR in temperment)Kentucky and West Virgina are among them.
Unfortunately or fortunately depending on how you look at it, those states won't vote Dem in Nov unless hell freezes over so whether Obama wins the nom or not won't change change the outcome from those states. (Although, AR may be the exception given Clinton's history with the state)

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Oh, it's great to see how many "liberals" here think of disadvantaged fellow human beings as "clay eating" and "mouth breathers". Oops, I forgot it's ok if they're white.

P.S. I'm an Obama supporter.

Yeah, I found that distasteful also. I like Kentucky.

Are they ever going to poll IN?

Hillary's got this thing about sewed up.

Obama really should step aside for the good of the party, and the country!


Rae

haha, long time no see.

I finally get that you're kidding! Duh. Sorry for any snarky posts before.

Sarcasm is difficult to convey with emails and blogs and I often miss these things.

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Kentucky:

per-capita personal income was US$28,513, 43rd in the nation.

Kentucky's agricultural outputs are horses, cattle, tobacco, dairy products, hogs, soybeans, and corn. Its industrial outputs are transportation equipment, chemical products, electric equipment, machinery, food processing, tobacco products, coal, and tourism. The Eastern Kentucky Coal Fields are recognized as being among the most productive in the nation.

Kentucky ranks 4th among U.S. states in the number of automobiles and trucks assembled.[60] The Chevrolet Corvette, Cadillac XLR, Ford Explorer, Ford Super Duty trucks, Toyota Camry, Toyota Avalon, and Toyota Solara are assembled in Kentucky.

I have nothing to base this on (except knowing a lot of racists and being related to some of them) but I think that the longer the general election campaign can be, the more *hope* there is of these voters making the the all important switch from "a black man" to "Barack Obama". That's how all discrimination (racial, gender, any kind) breaks down: when you stop seeing the WHAT and become able to see the WHO.

But it requires time and exposure for that to happen, a chance for them to realize that it IS going to be one of these two people, like it or not, and there might be other things they want to consider. I don't think that kind of 'biting the bullet' is going to happen until it's just the two candidates, R and D, and the choice is squarely before them.

Yeah. If that were the case then you should also see fewer blacks voting for him. They're voting his skin color not the "content of his character" since no one even know what that is.

When they supported Bill Clinton, Al Gore, and John Kerry in the same numbers, what skin color were they voting for then. When are you going to demand that White Democrats repay the African American Community for such overwhelming support by actually voting for a qualified Black candidate in the same numbers that African Americans have vote for White Democrats over and over again.

Please stop burning those crosses. We are having enough problems with global warming without having hood shrouded vermin like you adding to the problem.

Except - blacks in general have voted for the candidates in such large numbers in the GENERAL election and not in the democratic primary. If Bill Clinton won a democratic primary in 92 with 90% of the black vote, please let me know where and when. In the 2004 campaign, many blacks supported Dean, Edwards, Kerry etc. There is a big ideological gap between Kerry and GWB. The ideological and policy gaps between Hillary & Obama are much smaller. So why the general evenness among white voters and the large gap for black voters? And you have the nerve to call the motives of white voters who are not backing Obama racist.

Maybe they are middle class voters who remember the relative peace and prosperity of the Clinton years with fondness - a time when we were reducing the national debt. Maybe they believe that Hillary's foreclosure plan is more aggressive than Obama's. Maybe they believe in true universal health care. Maybe they disagree with you and think Hillary is the best candidate.

Ascribing racisim to people simply because they don't vote for Obama is ignorance at it's worst.

IF HRC wins KY by 40 points (30-70) she would still only net 20 delegates... 1/8th of the number she needs to catch up. Really, she needs to win all of the remaining states by that much just to get back in the game.

Simply said, does HRC want to be known as the bigot candidate... that is what she has become...

HRC should be concerned that her support is coming from the KY, KKK, base

What? You Obammamites still claiming anyone who doesn't vote obama is a racist I see.

Hmm. And who do you claim played the race card??

LOL ... pretty pathetic there merlot.

RaeKKK in the Hood.

way to go, hillary!

clinton: $2.8 million raised, 8 hours left to go to raise and reach $3 million. 34,000 donors this drive.

just sent off another $25. the more you bitch, the more we give! have a good one!

Too bad, she needs all the money to pay off her small vendors from Iowa to Ohio. She's got no money.

My money's going to Obama.

Anyone want to bet Obama is roadkill in KY and PA.

The momentum has switched and Clinton is ready to sprint to the finish.

"Obama the Gelding" in the place position.

Ricky Skaggs for VP!

I bet Eric wet himself posting this.

Whatever helps you sleep, dear.

I can't wait to hear Hillary's surrogates explain why Washington, Wisconsin, and Minnesota don't matter but Kentucky does.

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And this is different from all those red states Obama won how? It's not as if there's a snowball's chance in hell McCain won't carry it come the general election. By the logic of HRC's campaign, it therefore doesn't count.

Wow guys! REALLY nice sentiments for your fellow dems in ky!! Thanx! The ONLY reason hrc is doing soo well at the moment is she, bill and chelsea have been spending time here lately. Kentucky may go for hrc but it will NOT be the blowout that the poll is reflecting. Being from Louisville, I predict Obama wins Jefferson county, the largest metro area in the state! When Obama has been here, he's had amazing turn outs!! REDNECKISTAN? Really? I'm so insulted I don't know what to say.

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Let me apologize, jobolisk, for the ignorant comments made about Kentucky. Kentucky has some of the loveliest countryside in America. I personally know that rural Kentucky has some of the finest people in America, too.
The French have the best definition of ignorance, which they pronounce eeegnorawnce: to not know.
I am sure some of the ignorance in these comments are coming from folks who've never been in Kentucky, or who don't stop to think that every region of this country has its faults.


Thank you DonnaG. The people here who insult the intelligence of Kentuckians aren't just guilty of not having visited our fine state..that's really letting them off easy. They are a shame on any state in which they reside.
They lack not only integrity, which one can be "stupid" and still have, but are proud of the fact that they don't have it.
My grandfather was a farmer...too sad to think he may have actually provided these people with food that sustained them. My maternal grandfather worked in the coal mines of Kentucky and most likely contributed to keeping these cold hearted people warm...on the outside. My relatives died on battlefields here and abroad to afford them the right to insult their fellow Americans any way they choose.
We say we are fighting "terrorists"..factions which intend to bring America to it' knees. Look at the posts above...does it make you wonder why we need even "fear" the unseen enemy when most are more than happy to "show themselves"?
God bless Kentucky.
L.J.

Please ignore this post. It is a test.

Isn't this a state that re-elected a crazy and/or senile Republican guy to the senate recently? Nuff said.

MERLOT! What is the KKK, ky base? anyone who happens to be from , or live in kentucky? Here's a clue: YOU'RE WRONG!!!!! Oh, and kentucky has already had a woman gov. back in the '80s. Martha Layne Collins.a democrat. some of you are real jerks! I've had too much coffee today. cheers!

Thanks for the reminder. Time to donate more to Obama's campaign to negate your $25.

Hillary has not paid any of the vendors in states that she has lost. She has only paid for vendors of states that she has won. Don't you know that only states that vote for Hillary matter? States that do not vote for Hillary do not matter and the same goes for any debts incurred in states where she lost.

If you only count the primaries where Hillary won, you can see quite easily that Hillary is going to win the nomination! All you need is a kindergarten education to realize this logic. State that she lost do not count. If Hillary supporters can understand this, why can't you?

Sincerely,
Kindergartners for Hillary 2008!

I love you Kentucky!

Are you saying that if a white person votes for another white person because they are white they are a racist. But if a black person votes for another black person because they're black they're not.

Well let's start with some defintions. A racist is someone who believes his race is genetically and culturally superior to others and, on that basis, is entitled to dominate and oppress the "inferior" races. A mere bigot, by contrast, is just someone who feels antipathy for other ethnic groups but without any accompanying delusions of genetic superiority.

I know this is upsetting to white people who want to validate their own racism by equating it to the ethnic resentment and anger of some blacks, but, sorry, not at all the same thing.

So let's look at your oh-so-clever questions again. The problem is that they're based on false premises. See, it isn't about who you're voting for, it's about who you're voting against.

If you're a white person and you vote for another white person solely or mostly because the other candidate is black, odds are pretty good that you're a racist. And if that white person displays an uncritical willingness to believe every stupid-ass lie that's told about the black candidate that comes to him in an email, but doesn't believe any bad thing about the white candidate, again, odds are pretty good that person is the kind of closet racist who won't even admit it to himself.

Now, if you're black and you vote for a black candidate because the other candidate is white, it could well be you're a bigot. Actual black racists, however, are rare as hen's teeth.

If, however, you're black and, after 400 years of oppression and exclusion, a viable candidate for president comes along who is black, but acceptable enough to whites that he has a good chance, and if that person says stuff that you like, while his opponent is someone who you perceive to have deliberately engaged in racially divisive politics, thereby crapping on you and all the support you've given her for the next thing to two decades, then, no, voting for him does not make you a racist. It just makes you smart enough to know when you're being shit on.

That is so uplifting. I remember MLK's moving speech where he said: I have a dream that one day white people will be able to vote for a candidate regardless of race 50/50, but black people will vote for a candidate simply because of the color of his skin.

I have a dream that one day a black candidate's campaign will take the innocent words of a former pesident and turn them into a racial slur "the idea that Barack Obama has been opposed to the Iraq War is a fairytale" and not correct the record until after the people of SC have voted.

I have a dream that one day a Black Preacher will make outrageous and sickening comments and have a future presidential candidate in his congregation that does not have the courage to distance himslef until he is running for president.

I have a dream that any and every criticism of a black candidate will be an example of racism, while we can make patronizing and sexist comments towards a female canidate at will without facing media scrutiny (and how could the media really scruitinize something they are a part of).

Please... vote for Barack becuase you agree with his policies, vote for barack because you think he's a uniter (even though he has very little demonstrable evidence of this claim other than his great speeches, but please don't defend voting for Barack simply because of the color of his skin.

Are you saying that if a white person votes for another white person because they are white they are a racist. But if a black person votes for another black person because they're black they're not.

For what its worth, 59% of Democrats anda whopping 64% of Republicans disagree with you.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/105904/Dems-Reps-Agree-Obama-Tougher-Opponent-McCain.aspx

Or, at least, that's the percentage that think Obama would be a tougher candidate against McCain than Hillary.

Mmmmmmm...fried chicken

OK following your explanation, a white person voting for a white person because they are white is a bigot. And a black person voting for a black person because they are black is one as well.

Some states will go McCain's way, no matter what. Kentucky be one. Much ado about bupkiss.

Well, that isn't as simple as it sounds. I am an openly gay man who would literally fight to uphold the right to privacy. Your body is yours and what you do to yourself or with other consenting adults is your business and only your business. I think, as is legal precedent in the US, that that right to privacy is certainly extended to cover abortion.

Yet, personally, I am troubled by the idea of abortion. We don't know when life begins. Science cannot explain exactly *why* a seed sprouts. I do know three women (that I know of) who have had abortions and they all admit it was the hardest decision they've ever made. The circumstances were just not there to adequately provide for a child.

They admit, and I agree with them (though I certainly did not say this to them), that they should have been more careful. But, as I know very well, we are human and accidents happen.

I certainly believe that it should be a last resort and not a form of birth control. And although, if asked in a survey, I wouldn't describe myself as pro-life, I could easily see many people (even Dems, especially in a conservative state like KY) consider themselves such, while not advocating in any way overturning Roe v. Wade and fully believing that abortion should be freely availabe with guaranteed safety.

Good news, Kentuckians -- it looks like your state will count!*

*Note: Kentucky will not count if Senator Obama somehow manages to close the gap and win.

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Frankly, I dont differentiaate much from stereotypes based on skin color and stereotypes based on geographci location. I find them all dispicable and intellectually lazy, I find the term mouthbreather or nedneck little more than a slur. You want to blame some states for Hillary staying in this tight rrace? Look no further than CA, NY, MA and NJ.

The fact is that there are many reasons that Hillary could be doing well than has nothing to do with race baiting. First and foremost, the Clintons have always performed well in Kentucky. Bill carrried the state twice for Democrats in the general election against non-black opponents. Those so called rednecks are also what we call working poor, and they carried this party for decades. They also probably haven't forgotten that they did quite well under Bill's eight years. But because they dont vote the way you want them to vote, you minimalize them the way soft racist "social progressives" like Geraldine Ferraro minimalize blacks (I pity them, but I shouldn't have to actually compete against them as equal human beings).

I voted for Obama, but when i hear discourse like above it saddens me. Not only is it inflammatory nonsense similar to what I could hear on the A.M. dial from Hannity or Rush, it gives his critics ammo ... because evidently some of his supporters really aren't interested in elevating the political discourse in this country, for them it really is little more than a fad.

Kentucky was a solid blue state until about the last couple of decades. Now it is a solid red state. It now has two Republican Senators and 4 of its 6 Reps are Republican. Although the governor is a Democrat, and Dems control the Ky House by a fairly large majority, the Ky Senate has a very narrow Republican majority.

A large majority of Ky voters are still registered as Democrats; however, many of these are very conservative Dems and identify much more closely with the Republican party.

Often in the Ky primary, there may be several candidates on the Democratic side, but only one (or none) on the Republican ticket for any partisan office. This means that registered Republicans may not be able to vote in primaries since Republicans cannot vote for Dems and vice-versa. Therefore, many registered Democrats are likely Republicans in disguise, just so they can vote in the primary.

I would guess that these Republicans-in-disguise would be more likely to vote for Hillary in the primary because they feel that she would be easier to defeat in the general election that Obama.

And Kentucky is the center of a progressive movement. Oops, I meant regressive!

Of course - NY, NJ, CA all bastions of racism because they voted for Hillary.

These Obama supporters are so pathetic - anytime anyone disagrees with their candidate it is race based. How about perhaps Rev Wright DID hurt Obama in Kentucky because he was so closely aligned with a bigot??? His words did not match his actions by remaining aligned with someone who had some views he found "reprehensible". Obama can travel the country lecturing people on race and give grand speeches on how America can address the race issue, but he still has not come to terms with the root issue - why he stayed as a member of the church while fully aware of "reprehensible" comments.

If Obama wins the dem nomination, I am getting my don't blame me I voted for Hillary sticker now. There is no way he can win the general election.

I don't blame any Clinton supporters for being racist. That's ridiculous.

I know why you disagree with Obama and point fingers at him over Wright (still)...it is simply because you support your own candidate--Hillary--so loyally that you don't want Obama to be right or nuanced or honest or anything good. I get it...and there's really nothing wrong with that at this point. I don't give Hillary as much leeway with lying and NAFTA and praising McCain as I probably should. Nobody is perfect.

However, if Barack Obama IS our nomineee, which looks all but inevitable, it would be nice if Clinton supporters could take a step back and see the good things in him...because there are a lot of them. We would do the same for your candidate.

And, please don't say "don't blame me" and walk away if the election doesn't go your way. That's not very mature. We should all be active and supportive to ANY democratic president...they are going to need it.

I will vote for Obama if he is the eventual nominee (not that it will matter because I am a NYer). But if Mccain beats Obama the revisionist storyline will be that Hillary damaged him in the primary and is responsible for his loss. The truth is all of this stuff would have come out in the general election. We have the advantage of knowing it now. If we elect Obama as our nominee I have no doubts that he cannot win the general election.

Wow. Those numbers might actually mean something to me if the state wasn't going to vote Republican in November anyway.

It's always disappointing to me when a Democrat lets emotion get in the way of intellectual honesty. How anyone can think that Obama is unelectable versus McCain, when every purported flaw that Obama has is trumped by the same flaw in McCain on a much larger scale, is beyond me.

The polls don't seem to support this, either, because Obama consistently does better against McCain than Clinton does...and bottom line, I have confidence that most of the 70% of Americans who disapprove of the Iraq War are going to vote for the candidate who DIDN'T offer up the promise of "100 years" in Iraq or "Bomb bomb bomb bomb bomb Iran."

It also disturbs me to see any Democrat fall for the Rev. Wright business. Not only is the Wright controversy based on a gross misrepresentation of Wright's POV, but it is also a slap in the face to a solidly mainstream American progressive Christian denomination. Plus, it's childish to boot--"hey, you have a friend who said some jerky things, so you must be a jerk!" And that is somehow worse than the total fabrication of a personal experience with sniper fire in Bosnia?

Thanks for trumpeting intellectual honesty - I am a big believer in it. Obama has indicated that he is more electable because he can attract Obama-cans and Reagan Democrat independents. Well guess what? The whole Wright controversy speaks very largely to that crowd (and to independent and fair minded democrats who are not blinded by the Obama halo).

To preach unity, while voting present every Sunday in a church whose leader said some reprehensible things by Obama's own account speaks volumes about his character. As long as it is "just words" he's all about unity, but when it comes to challenging bigotry within your own race he was silent when it mattered - until he ran for President. It smacks of opportunism and a lack of character to me as someone who abhors racism or bigotry from either side. I am a fiercely liberal democrat who does not question the patrioism of candidates or criticize him fro not wearing a flag pin, but I lost a ton of respect for him on a moral level.

Am I alone? I think not. Will it matter on the general election? I have no doubt it will. They Swiftboated John Kerry with false accusations about what happened to him in Vietnam. Do you really believe the Reverend Wright flap is just going to be brushed under the carpet and won't matter? That is neither intellectual nor honest - it is truly the politics of hope over reason.

hillary will win pa and wva and kentucky

...she probably will be very very close if not win Indiana as well

and puerto rico...the margins of her victories

will determine much

and then...if this party does NOT allow the florida and michigan voters to have their voice

...this nation will have truly "found itself coming around the corner"

...that's the real issue guys and girls...

it will spell the end of the democractic experiment...in the notion as a government ruled upon by "consent by the governed..."

it will no longer be a true democratic nation

but something hollow and a shell of itself
and that is the true thing to be afraid of


its been like that since 2000 in many ways...

and its been getting bad ever since the 68 assassinations of kennedy and king

but..to have the dem party head say..."primary elections are a bad thing..."

is just as sick as it gets guy

dean for napoleanic wars!!!


...i never thought this is the way democracy would come to an end fully....

and that i would be allive to witness this

hillary is not only carring the hopes of us supporters and the mid west and those latinos and those in the middle class and all of her supporters and citizens in califronia, new york and so many places...

but of the entire notion that a free and independent electorate is to have their nation pay attention to who is actually winning and winning seriously among ALL the states...in the union...

not just howard dean's "50 minus at least two or three or more"

...strategy

Have you actually listened to any of Rev. Wright's sermons in their entirety, or read any honest theological analyses of them?

I doubt it, or you wouldn't be pushing this meme of "hate speech from the pulpit," because you'd know the context, the true origins of the statements, and so forth. Rev. Wright was, after all, good enough to be invited to the Clinton White House for Bill's big "mea culpa" on Lewinsky, and he's someone who is well-respected in the most mainstream Midwestern theological circles.

Obama, of course, could be making hay out of HRC's association with the scary prayer group "The Family," but he's not.

In any case, I don't think the Rev. Wright story--which is an intellectually dishonest story at best--will have any legs in the general election. If it did, that would open the door for a "whose supporters have the most shocking soundbites?" back-and-forth with McCain, who really doesn't want to go there (Hagee, Robertson, et al).

Moreover, there are many American voters who really don't have any room to judge Obama for not leaving his church. For example, like millions of other Americans, I'm still a Catholic...but that doesn't mean I agree with covering up child molestation, or extreme pro-life wingnuttery, or even the ban on birth control.

We all hear things that range from annoying to outrageous at our places of worship, our jobs, our family gatherings--thankfully, most intelligent people can take the good and leave the bad behind.

On the one hand we have being endorsed by various crackpots with whom you are not affiliated (i.e. Guiliani/ Robertson; McCain/Hagee; RevWright being among like a million other religious figures at the National Bill Clinton Mea Culpa Prayer Breakfast) and choosing to for 20 years associate yourself with a Church whom Obama has said he would have left had Rev. Wright not been retiring. The back and forth with McCain / Hagee goes as far as I disagree with those comments, but I accept his endorsement. Obama criticized his comments and is left to explain why he remained a member of the Church while being aware of "reprehensible" comments that he totally disagreed with. It is intellectually dishonest to claim that there us no distinction.

Secondly, Obama said he himself would have left the Church had Wright not retired - only after he started running for president. Did he hear hateful speech he disagreed with in the Church. Yes and he admitted it (after denying initially hearing controversial comments). If the speeches are so mainstream, then why would Obama distance himself at all unless he is doing so out of politically expediency rather than his own comnvictiions which calls even to question his character even more.

And please elaborate on the alleged HRC commection with "The Family." Did their sermons inspire the title for her book? Has she called them one of her closest spiritual advisors? Has she been a member of their Church for 20 yrs? Have they claimed the 9-11 was the chickens coming home to roost and damn America? I think not, but please feel free to enlighten me.

Get real - this is not a false issue. You can recognize it now or in November, but please get your head out of the sand and realize that this is not about race baiting or gotcha for most people. It is about does Obama's actions live up to his words and in my opinion they fall woefully short.

And since you brought up Catholic Church - speaking as a non-practicing Catholic who grew up in Catholic schools & went to Church every Sunday, I vehemently disagree with the Church's stance on women in the Chruch, contraception, right to life/promotion of anti-abortion legislation as a political issue rather than a moral issue to be determined by individuals, the cover-ups over molestion. While I personally belive in the Bible and the basic tenets of Catholicism & Christianity, I will not be a part of a Church that stands for policies I find reprehensible.

Do I criticize those who remain and try to change the Church from within? Of course not. But sitting idly by while your pastor of 20 years makes comments you personally find outrageous and reprehensible and never addressing them until you are running for president... That to me signifies distancing yourself based on politcal expediency and a lack of character.

Hey Dijamo! Thank you for the post, as they are words to my heart. I so wanted to believe in Barack, but I too was getting bogged down by so many examples of his ingenuineness, most particularly the one you cite. Yes, he has sat idle by with his wife and daughters, and thus condoned (of not also agreed with) the reprehensible comments being frequently made by Reverend Wright. What made him so comfortable there, that he could attend the church for 20 years?

Oh, if only this nomination process lasted longer. People are beginning to catch MR. Golden Boy Barack Obama in too many inconsistencies, too many faux pas and ingenuineness. Kentucky sees right through that stuff; they know a fast-talking hippocrit when they see one. He says, let's put race aside and just talk about the issues, while his campaign staff cries wolf over every possible racial insensitivity, and then it is no surprise that he has felt most at home for many years in a church that preaches gospel against the government and hatred toward "Rich White People," and now they take a closer look at his true record in the Senate.

Go Hillary go!

This election has always been about race. It amazes me how in certain states 90% of African Americans can vote for Obama and there is nothing said about racism. Clearly it's there, clearly it exists. People view racism as the 'white man's problem'...Racism is very much alive in the African American community. I myself, have been a victim of that racism coming from the African American community. Point blank, there are some people who will vote for Obama because he's African American, and there will be some people who won't vote for him because he is. There are some people who will vote for Hillary just because she's a white woman, and there are some who won't vote for her because she's 1. white, 2. a woman.
Hillary will win in KY by a fairly big margin. She'll also win in West Virgina, other states of the like. My opinion is, if Obama gets the nod.. he SHOULD NOT expect to win states like Kentucky, West Virginia, Virginia, Tennessee, Arkansas, Ohio, Pennsylvania in the general election. It simply WILL NOT happen.

Dijamo,

Good points on Rev. Wright. Sadly, many people are blinded by sexism or clintonian hatred/jealousy and its hard for them to consider another viewpoint.

I'm a chicagoan and some tell me...well Rev. Wright isn't running for president. I told them get real. An advisor is generally someone looked up to, admired/revered/sometimes worshipped and depended on for advice, strategy and leadership. This applies to any level from grade school on up.

I've decided to NOT vote Obama under any circumstances because he is blocking revote efforts in Michigan/Florida. This is undemocratic and will practically guarantee a McCain or independent victory.

I'm also deeply disappointed with the vitriol of some obama supporters. Several of HIllary's prominent black supporters and superdelegates have received death threats. The media ignores this. If Obama can't get his supporters to be "nonviolent and civil", how am I supposed to trust him to help the world become less violent?
I won't even bring up his cousin, Raila Odinga!

Since Obama is so black power oriented, why should I trust America to his leadership. Dept of Defense said in 2006: 6510 blacks were killed by other blacks while 363 blacks have been killed in the war.

Blacks make up 13% of the population but account for half of all homicides. This is awful and we need to drastically reduce this. I would not put this responsiblity on his shoulder, but many blacks tell me they think he's the only person that can stop this. I told them, think again. Obama tried but could NOT stop the election violence in Kenya. I could go on and on.

as a proud kentuckian (yeah, thats right, kentuckian) i am glad to see this. most people do not really know facts, they are led be media. this election will be decided by the media in the end. i think Hillary has a decent chance of winning this nomination especially if fl. and mi. delegates are seated. and i find it extremely un-democratic and anti-american to push for the end of the primary election process by asking clinton to step down, where is the sense in that. if anything, this is helping the party. its getting all the (or in obama's case, most of) the negativities out of the way. this will allow us to go head strong into the general election ready to battle mccain with little or no baggage left over from the primaries. make sense? if it doesnt, you need to grow a brain or become republican. Also, how can people say that the rev. wright controversy has or will have no effect on obama? i beleive that it is impossible to look up to someone as an adviser, spiritual leader, friend, mentor and quote "like a father.." without sharing some of the person's views. i mean, people say its not obama that said those things, its wright, but did obama not look up to this man for 20+ years. think about someone you look up to, think hard and try not to be biased. do you or do you not look up to this person because you somewhat believe the same they do, or share the same views or opinions? the answer is yes. also, people say that you cannot reduce a career to 30 seconds of video, and the media was taking what he said out of context. I will be the first to agree with the person who can put words, paragraphs or sermons before or after the words "god damn america" and make that statement mean anything but what it says. then i would say that it was taken out of context, but the fact is, there is nothing you could put before or after these words that would make them okay...theological or not.

thanks

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