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Report: North Carolina's Democratic House Delegation Set To Endorse Obama
Barack Obama might be on the verge of a major coup in North Carolina, with the Wall St. Journal reporting that the whole Democratic delegation to the House, seven members in all and spanning the party's ideological spectrum, will soon endorse Obama as a group.
So far only one member has endorsed Obama, G. K. Butterfield, and the delegation had previously been backing favorite son John Edwards.
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Drip, drip, ...
March 30, 2008 11:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
WOW! This is going to really get the momentum going!
I wonder when soon is? Monday? Tuesday? The sooner the better.
March 30, 2008 11:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
Does anyone know how many superdelegates endorsed each of the candidates before any voting took place, and how many after Iowa? I am guessing those numbers would be very telling.
March 30, 2008 11:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hillary's lead among superdelegates was, according to the Democratic Convention Watch blog, of:
- 96 on 1/13
- 93 on 2/3
- 47 on 3/2
- 34 on 3/30
and it looks like 27 come tomorrow
Note: not all superdelegates are free agents, some are what is called add-on delegates, and it's likely Obama will get a +15 out of there, so right now you can count on a 10-15 superdelegates advantage for Hillary, while Obama is ahead 160-165 among pledged delegates.
March 30, 2008 11:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
Something interesting: among super delegates, they're pretty much tied among each publicly elected (thus publicly responsible) category: governors, representatives, senators.
But she holds huge leads among somewhat hidden superdelegates, namely 10-3 among DPL members and 140-107 among DNC members.
That's what I would call telling, to answer cswartout's question.
March 31, 2008 12:13 AM | Reply | Permalink
on 1/13 they have the sd count at 165-69 (=96)
now (counting the 6 NC) 246-219 (+5 more that have declared they will follow the voter delegates) (=22)
http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/2008/02/superdelegate-history-tracker.html
http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/2008/03/superdelegates-pledging-to-back.html
March 30, 2008 11:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
Meanwhile, crickets are heard at a certain home in NC sporting a basketball court and helipad.
On the other hand, perhaps this presages a coming out.
March 30, 2008 11:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
Funny!
Maybe, but doesn't Edwards want his own limelight, though?
March 30, 2008 11:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
The day begins with the WaPo story where HRC declares she's in this thing all the way to Denver. Bill's also quoted instructing the party to "chill out".
The day transpires with Obama taking a 10 point lead in the Gallup tracking poll and reports of Clinton's financial crunch. Obama has up to a $30M advantage on Campaign Hillary.
The day ends with reports of Obama securing a sweep of endorsements from the NC House congressional delegation and from Senator Amy Klobuchar. The last one splitting the declared Senator endorsements right down the middle at 14/14.
One is reminded that for those who hang on too long in the world of politics, when the end arrives, it will usually come quickly and with a thud.
By the time we get to the PA primary, Hillary may need April 22nd more for as a dignified exit point than as a springboard to the nomination.
Stay tuned.....I think that I am hearing notes from The Last Post being played off in the near distance.
March 30, 2008 11:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ozzinny- Just to add an important event of the day-Obama wins Texas by winning Caucuses by 19 points.
March 31, 2008 12:09 AM | Reply | Permalink
19 points ? Link please. BOR has it about 12% with 87.5% delegates reporting.
March 31, 2008 12:23 AM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks Kash79 - good point.
And AMK, I believe that the case can be made that it doesn't really matter what the percentages in TX turn out to be. As the Speaker has reminded the world, this process is about delegates and who wins the most.
Hillary used the initial TX (and OH) results to frame the narrative of a momentum-changing victory. Now it transpires that she actually sustained a net loss of delegates in TX. What does that do to the underlying narrative?
March 31, 2008 12:46 AM | Reply | Permalink
Ozzinny
Don't get me wrong. I am a rabid BHO supporter. I was just stunned by the percentage since I was expecting around 12%. Such a steep margin of 19% in a state where both HRC and idiotic MSM have been claiming ad nauseum to be her "win", is indeed staggering.
March 31, 2008 1:06 AM | Reply | Permalink
Ickes already declared we Obama supporters don't know how to count. So, excuse my solidarity.
If it makes you any happier make it 18 points and not 19.
http://www.mcclatchydc.com/homepage/story/32023.html
March 31, 2008 12:48 AM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks kash. You have proved Ickes (about being non-counter) right. With all the HRC talk of so many matters not counting, no wonder you lost your counting power. /snark/
March 31, 2008 1:10 AM | Reply | Permalink
amk is right -- it's going to be closer to 12 points. The real question now is whether Barack gets +7 delegates this weekend (and +3 overall in Texas) or +9 this weekend (and +5 overall).
Right now, he is literally a few hundredths of a percentage point on the wrong side of the +9 (+5) the campaign projected, so that part's going to be a squeaker.
But either way, Barack has won Texas.
The best -- and most up-to-date -- place to monitor the progress is here.
March 31, 2008 1:19 AM | Reply | Permalink
amk- I just realized that you're one among us who cannot count and doesn' t count. Sorry for the confusion.
March 31, 2008 12:59 AM | Reply | Permalink
"There are some folks saying we ought to stop these elections," she said Saturday in Indiana, which also has a May 6 primary. "I didn't think we believed that in America. I thought we of all people knew how important it was to give everyone a chance to have their voices heard and their votes counted."
March 30, 2008 11:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
... so then, at the convention, the superdelegates and not-so-pledged pledged delegates can exercise their independent judgment and usurp the will of the aforementioned voters, rendering their voices meaningless
P.S. If you don't believe this is what America believes in, some of my friends with lots of cash might write you a nasty letter.
March 31, 2008 12:30 AM | Reply | Permalink
I guess then we need to ask Edwards, Dodd, Biden, etc. all to return to the race? Since they were forced out of the race, doesn't that mean their supporters are not having their voices heard and their votes counted? When you think about it, it was kinda un-American for Edwards to drop out. I didn't think we believed that in America!
We should insist that all primary candidates stay in the race until the convention! Then we can let the credentials committee assess which one is the least unelectable and will lose by the smallest margin in the general.
Why bother having a credentials committee if we're not going to hand over the nominating process to them?
March 31, 2008 1:37 AM | Reply | Permalink
Paging Idiotic... Please report to the Bridge...
March 31, 2008 12:10 AM | Reply | Permalink
I for one hope she hangs in there at least through the PA primary. Obama is going to do better than most people expect, and Hillary will be faced with a stark reality she can accept. Forcing her out before PA will leave a lasting legacy of bitterness and resentment.
A less than stellar showing in PA (winning margin of
Looks like Reid was correct, that things are being done, and Dean has put out the word that he would like the superdelegates to start committing by July.
One of the fine points of warfare is to defeat the enemy but give them a chance to leave the field with some sense of dignity. That way the ensuing search for comity and peace will be easier. So far Obama is showing good generalship in this regard.
March 31, 2008 12:20 AM | Reply | Permalink
So if Bill Richardson is Judas, then these delegates would be...Roman centurions?
March 31, 2008 12:23 AM | Reply | Permalink
My text got cut off somehow: "A less than stellar showing in PA (winning margin of less than 5%) will confront her with a stark reality she can accept. That and her financial problems will allow her to step down with a rationale other than being coerced by others. In other words, she can exit gracefully."
March 31, 2008 12:27 AM | Reply | Permalink
I guess Democrats have drawn the line at NC.
A story ends and a story begins.
Now John Edwards has only two options left- none of them include endorsing Hillary.
March 31, 2008 12:28 AM | Reply | Permalink
On ABC today Donna Brazile was emphatic in saying that the superdelegates would decide by June 10th (when the primary process is over) or soon thereafter. There's no way this goes on longer than the second week in June. If Obama comes close in Pa. or wins both NC and IN on May 6th, it could be over sooner. Hopefully the McCain "Free Ride Express" won't be rolling on much longer than another five weeks or so.
March 31, 2008 12:44 AM | Reply | Permalink
Holy, moly.....and a double whoa!.....
March 31, 2008 12:44 AM | Reply | Permalink
Boy, I've had my PA expectations set appropriately low. I've read enough educated people who have said, short of something very dramatic happening, he is absolutely going to lose PA. I wonder if that something dramatic is starting to happen. Can you believe it though...still three whole weeks to PA!!
BTW, everyone should note that at this stage of the game, each SD is effectively a two for one pick up for Obama. It adds one to his column and takes one away from the remaining available pile for Hillary - pushing her required take rate up higher and higher.
March 31, 2008 12:52 AM | Reply | Permalink
This may be bigger than Casey and Richardson. A mass endorsement of seven people? Obama will be about 25 short of Hillary's superdelegate lead. The moment that tipping point hits, the game is over.
Brian
http://www.politicalinaction.com
March 31, 2008 1:02 AM | Reply | Permalink
The Casey & NC7 endorsements are qualitatively different from that of Richardson.
The Casey/NC7 pre-primary endorsements are aimed at the voters in PA and NC. The Richardson endorsement is of a more national focus.
The Casey endorsement is worth as much as 10 percentage points on Apr 22. The impact of the NC7 will be less marked, perhaps 5 percentage points, for the reason that Obama already has such a very large lead against HRC in NC.
March 31, 2008 2:51 AM | Reply | Permalink
"There are some folks saying we ought to stop these elections," she said Saturday in Indiana, which also has a May 6 primary. "I didn't think we believed that in America. I thought we of all people knew how important it was to give everyone a chance to have their voices heard and their votes counted."
This, I believe, is from the same person who said "It will all be over with on Feb. 5th." ???
March 31, 2008 1:11 AM | Reply | Permalink
The WSJ article said the reps are "poised to endorse" sometime before the May 6 NC primary, so it may be awhile before it's official.
March 31, 2008 1:46 AM | Reply | Permalink
OT, Iraq Distilled
http://i198.photobucket.com/albums/aa82/angryrakkasan/Sadr_Maliki_America_Iran.jpg
March 31, 2008 1:47 AM | Reply | Permalink
Listen closely,I believe I hear Lady Soul, Ms.Aretha Franklin,warming up backstage..
March 31, 2008 1:58 AM | Reply | Permalink
I would respect Edwards more if he endorsed Hillary, if that's who he believes is better qualified. Instead he tries to stand alluringly on the sidelines posing as La Belle Dame sans Merci.
Guess he wasn't very Presidential after all.
March 31, 2008 2:25 AM | Reply | Permalink
Getalife,weren't you "taking over this blog"? Guess you'll have to get Chelsea to run in 2016. Take heart, she's probably too smart to lie about Sniper Fire. God Damn America(n liars)!
March 31, 2008 2:36 AM | Reply | Permalink
I wouldn't get overconfident about PA if I were y'all. There are vast areas that are very white, very rural and very unlikely to vote for a largely unknown black fella.
That said, Obama is ahead in the pledged delegate count by 157+. The Clintons only picked up a net 9 in Ohio winning by 10 points...so even a 20 point *blowout* would amount to at most a 30 or so delegate gain for the broke Clintons.
Think how hard it will be, if it's possible at all, to make up those 157+ delegates out of what states are left:
Some states with large delegate hauls won by Clinton by more than 8 points:
California +38
New York +46
New Jersey +11
Ohio +9
Total of net delegates added to Clinton from the above big states is 104.
It's going to become more and more evident as days go on how futile this *all the way* nonsense is...especially to those superdelegates that will have to get reelected themselves.
Keep refuting the *this is an incredibly close race* meme the Clintons keep repeating over and over. They say it enough the mindless press will accept it as truth.
It's not close. It's dang near impossible. Just keep repeating it and write your elected representatives... ;0
March 31, 2008 3:28 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'm afraid this is an (evidently unconsciously) prejudiced statement:
"I wouldn't get overconfident about PA if I were y'all. There are vast areas that are very white, very rural and very unlikely to vote for a largely unknown black fella."
Why does color and degree of urbanism necessarily determine how one votes?
March 31, 2008 8:41 AM | Reply | Permalink
Okay, you are witnessing a coup d’état. The conventional wisdom, even among those in the Hillary campaign, is that she not only has to win PA, but NC and IN on May 6th to make her campaign viable.
The fact that you are seeing the entire NC delegation weighing in for Obama is to effectively end the race on May 6th.
Clever, very clever. Pelosi and Reid are right, this will be over soon.
March 31, 2008 7:44 AM | Reply | Permalink
Let's not get ahead of ourselves here. Endorsements do not always translate into votes. (Obama does seem to be doing well in NC already) But, the gaining of Supers is significant.
Let's leave it at that.
March 31, 2008 8:18 AM | Reply | Permalink
Question, do these totals include the superdelegates she has lost? Lantos was hers and he died, Spitzer was hers and he screwed hookers, so have they been subtracting superdelegates as they drop, or as they switch?
March 31, 2008 8:25 AM | Reply | Permalink
I have been very impressed at how quickly Demconwatch has been updating the totals. In other words, I think that the answer to your question is yes. Certainly if folks are using the Demconwatch totals then they will have seen Santos and Spitzer removed from Clinton column within just a few minutes of the announcements of Santos' death and Spitzer's retirement.
March 31, 2008 10:54 AM | Reply | Permalink
This is what predict -- slowly the super delegates are going to jump on Obama bandwagon -- to the point that winning the rest of predicted delegates -using that famous Obama delegate spreadsheet as guide - he will win the nomination. I think they are aiming to May NC and indiana primary to basically announce that Obama is going to win.
March 31, 2008 8:49 AM | Reply | Permalink
A question for the room...
Since conventional wisdom tells us that Obama will seat the Florida and Michigan delegations once he has secured the nomination, won't he need enough Superdelegates to get to 2208 delegate votes? How many more Supers endorsements will this require?
March 31, 2008 9:09 AM | Reply | Permalink
Of course he'll need superdelegates to get him to 2024. How many remains to be seen since we don't yet know his delegate nets in the remaining 10 contests.
March 31, 2008 10:01 AM | Reply | Permalink
Folks: Just a reminder that today is the last day to make a donation to the Obama campaign that will show up in the next fundraising report. Since we all know Hillary is in big financial trouble - not paying her bills, running out of the money given to her by the big power brokers - it would be a great help to show the superdelegates how much more support Barack has - and remind them that it's mostly from us little folks.
I just made another $25 donation. Even $5 would be great. Let's show the party who's got the real power - so everyone can compare the financial health of the two campaigns before PA or NC.
March 31, 2008 9:53 AM | Reply | Permalink
Keep in mind while you tout the rural white people of PA and Obama's chances...he took Maine without too many problems and we're kinda rural and largely pasty white populous.
March 31, 2008 12:47 PM | Reply | Permalink