Rendell: Isn't Popular Vote As Important As Pledged Del Count?

A key Clinton surrogate, Pennsylvania Governor Ed Rendell, has just given voice to a Clinton campaign argument that's been bubbling below the surface but is rarely voiced quite this explicitly: The idea that the popular vote is at least as democratic a metric for judging the winner as the pledged delegate count is.

On a conference call with reporters moments ago, Rendell said: "Let's assume that Senator Clinton goes ahead in the popular vote count." He then asked, "which is more democratic" -- choosing the winner of the popular vote or the winner of the pledged delegate count.

"The way we select delegates is not all that democratic," Rendell continued, in a reference to caucus voting. "The rules were going in that super-delegates were there to exercise their judgment...as a super-delegate I want to make sure we win in the fall, and I'm gonna take the candidate who can do that."

As I reported here yesterday, at a private powwow with major donors, Hillary advisers conveyed the message that her success depends on their ability to persuade the super-dels to consider three "data points" -- the pledged delegate count, the popular vote, and the specific states won by each candidate.

As Rendell shows, the argument that the popular vote is at least as "democratic" a metric as the pledged del count is going to be a key one, and we'll hear more of it going forward.

Late Update: Rendell was talking about what would happen if she had the popular vote lead when it's all over, but even so, it seems worth noting that Obama is ahead in the popular vote right now, according to Real Clear Politics, even when you factor in Florida and Michigan.


Comments (100)

Its a good thing Obama is winning the popular vote by over 700,000.

Rendell: "as a super-delegate I want to make sure we win in the fall, and I'm gonna take the candidate who can do that."

What would it take to convince Ed that he's wrong in his choice of best candidate for the fall? Given that the answer is likely nothing, there's nothing anyone can say or do that would make him change his mind, this is a totally ridiculous argument.

We should refer to trying to change the rules in the middle of the game by its real name: cheating.

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I'm honestly surprised at degree that Ed Rendell seems to be willing to allow Hillary to essentially run amok in his own backyard. He's already basically called many of his own voters racists. And keep in mind, Pennsylvania is a closed primary, so he was calling registered Democrats racists. He has been a vocal supporter of Hillary Clinton, even when she was elevating John McCain over Barack and during the Ferraro blowup. Now he has become the spokesman for the "moving of the goalposts" strategy that Clinton has been forced to embrace.

Someone should ask Rendell what he feels the effect of comments like those made by Ferraro and the cumulative effects of a bitter 6 week primary in his state may have on his ability to deliver the state of Pennsylvania to Democrats in November.

There is a set of metrics in place to determine the nominee. All parties know these metrics going into the process. To delegitimize this process now does absolutely nobody, least of all the party as a whole, any good.

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More like 1,000,000 according to the Obama camp. There's a lot of caucus states that haven't reported popular vote counts yet.

How exactly does she expect to overcome that?

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Well Obama's people should just say "okay." Because they're going to win the popular vote count too.

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This is a wonderful way to disenfrancise the caucus states, where a much smaller proportion of the population will vote.

Which, of course, is the goal.

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But wait, isn't the Obama argument that caucuses don't disenfranchise voters, and so should be taken with all the seriousness of an election?

I mean, people point out that the Texas caucus swung 16 points more in Obama's direction than did the primary in Texas, and the WA caucus gave him 31 points more than did the WA election, and say that obviously voters were being disenfranchised by the caucus, and that Clinton voters were obviously being very unfairly discriminated against.

But Obama supporters have said, No, of course caucuses don't disenfranchise voters - everybody can show up, nobody's preventing them!

Isn't that true anymore?

Just tell me what's true!

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EXACTLY! Almost surely Rendell is working with the equation

PRIMARY VOTE = POPULAR VOTE

I don't know the math here - but I am assuming that if you look at primary only states Clinton may have the lead on votes.

I don't really believe many superdelegates are stupid enough to line up behind that argument, but surely some are or they would not float it.

It does, as you suggest, have the effect of alienating caucus states.

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YES, THAT IS WHAT ED RENDELL IS UP TO!!!

Check out this site.

It shows what Obama and Clinton have won JUST THROUGH CAUCUSES, INCLUDING FL and MI!!!!! (AND NOT UPDATED TO INCLUDE MS.)

Here is the answer:

Candidate Obama Clinton
TOTAL 12,838,762 13,084,646
Florida 569,041 857,208
Michigan 0 328,151
Tot-MI/FL 12,269,721 11,899,287
Mississippi 255,809 155,686
Tot-FL/MI+MS 12,525,530 12,054,973


Clearly they are preparing to put forward the following argument:

1) Caucuses are undemocratic - we should focus on popular vote from primaries and there Hillary Clinton has a 100K lead over Obama (including MS).
2) Hillary Clinton has a good chance to extend that lead with a big win in PA.
3) The FL and MI primary votes should stand AS IS because it is not the voters fault that the DNC said they broke the rules and that Obama (in deference to the DNC) did not run.

That is what the Clinton camp is holding on to.

Sheesh!

Not according to da rules. We all know what rules mean to the clintonistas. Nothing.

All they keep doing is moving the goal posts so that she can keep nuking the party and dem nominee to prepare for another run in 2012. Who's the challenger on the horizon if her game plan plays out. Anyone know? I want to start organizing and donating now.

You go girl.

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If you think our guy won't be fighting for the nomination like this should the roles be reversed, God forbid, you're fooling yourself. I would expect him to make the fight and win the battle. I don't think he's above fighting political battles, if I did, I wouldn't vote for him. I think he's better than Clinton at these fights...thus his lead in the election.

Actually, no I don't think that obama would be doing what the clintons are doing. If I did, I would not be supporting him. He has integrity, cares about people, the country and the democratic party. All the clintons care about are their personal glory and nothing else.

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Actually concerning your point about nuking the other candidate...you're right, if I thought he would do that to help his chances for a future run, I wouldn't vote for him. I'm talking about convincing Supers to support him based upon what he has won and his ability to win in the GE. That's what I was referring to, not the self-serving aspect of Clinton's strategy for a run in 2012. Although, I'm going to continue to hope she isn't doing that.

Oh, ok, I'm with you. The problem is that if the roles were reversed, the supers would have intervened mid-way through february and the media would be treating obama like a loser like the huckster was treated and obama wouldn't have any money to continue campaigning. He probably would have been forced out 3 weeks ago. That's the big difference.

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I've thought that on occassion as well.

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Translation?

Isn't the right way to look at this is the way that gives it to Hillary?

Good god...the process is the process. Shrillary wasn't complaining about pledged delegates when SUPER TUESDAY was supposed to lock it up for her.

What a f*cking nightmare. Is it ever going to end? My gag reflex literally triggers anytime sime Hillbot comes from a different angle trying to steal this thing.

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If by "more democratic" you mean DISENFRANCHISING caucus states!!

Caucuses have lower turn out, so how can they compete with primary results?

States are allowed to determine their own method - primary, caucus, or both (TX) -- and by counting delegates, you respect each states results.

Clinton is trying to disnefranchise states which don't favor her, and to cherry pick the very very few states that do.

Also note that "big states" are already accounted for plenty in the delegate apportionment. ie. California has far more delegates than midsize or small states. Essentially, she's trying to doublecount the big states.

Bottomline: Delegates are the way this is decided, not some other bs method which happens to be convenient for cheatocrat Clinton.

Bingo. Clinton lost all credibility on the issue after she said - once she 'won' - that Michigan and Fla should be seated as is. Which means Obama gets zero delegates from Mich. How can anyone but the most hardcore Hillary cheaters defend this kind of crap? Now her excuse is, "well, that was Barack's decision to take his name off the ballot." EL BARFO.

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What a funny position coming from the campaign that has been trying to hijack the election in the most undemocratic way possible, superdelegates and stealing pledged delegates.

Oh, and you can't make up the popular vote either, Obama is ahead by about a million, so good luck with that.

Of course, they'll try to calculate the popular vote leaving out all the people who caucused...but even then he is still clearly ahead. Unless Hillary has another California lying around next week, I don't see this even being an issue. A 10% win in Pennsylvania isn't going to change a damn thing, in popular vote or delegates.

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The other difference between popular votes and delegates is that it's harder to get a precise figure on popular votes, given the way caucus votes are counted. Clinton supporters tend to forget, for example, that Washington State's popular vote count hasn't been released yet.

Therefore, even though every reputable tally has Obama way up, by a margin that can't be overcome by Pennsylvania, there's enough haze that some questions can be raised about who actually might have the lead when all is said and done

And Clinton supporters also want to count Michigan votes, absurd as it is since Obama honored his promise and took his name off the ballot. Her supporters have nothing to say about Clinton's integrity on this issue.

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Oh Clinton supporters have something to say. They say she's a fighter, and they like it, even when she fights dirty.

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Yeah, and not to mention places like California, where it took weeks to get around to counting a million ballots, voters who favored Obama, and then NYC, where 80 districts, some in heavily African American districts gave Obama ZERO votes.

I'm not sure which is easier to manipulate, the popular vote or delegates..

Either way, Obama leads by a large margin, and there aren't enough states left for Hillary to make it up, in fact Obama is likely to gain even more compared to her.

*and I second the poster above who mentioned the gag reflex.

Those zero votes in NY. What kills me is when the news reports have several people saying, "I voted for Obama." and their district has recorded no votes for him and no one seems interested in figuring out why or how that happened. The media then says, "Are you saying there was voter fraud?!" and the voters are like, "Hell, yeah!" and the media just says, "Well, that's just the opinion of those 12 people. Now on to Today's Missing White Woman!".

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LOL! Sad but true.

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Caucus states should count just as much as any. Changing the rules in the middle of the game is not fair. If Rendell wants to push for a national primary, settled by popular vote, in 12 then he should do so after this one is resolved. There is no good argument for changing the rules in the middle of the game.

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Changing the rules? What on earth are you talking about? The rules clearly allow for superdelegates to exercise their judgement. The popular vote isn't an unreasonable thing to take into consideration.

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http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/3/13/11136/3289/192/475758

Hillary KNEW the rules. Adhering to them is a different matter

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I suppose that's a good point. However, I still think there's something to the contention that the Hillary camp is arguing for a new metric because they are losing by the original metric. That's not "changing the rules" in the sense of the formal rules of the convention, but it is trying to change them in an informal way. As has been pointed out, this approach that Rendel is pushing for pretty severely undercounts the influence of caucus states. It's awful hard to argue that that's "more democratic". Of course, the Clinton campaign is trying to argue that a primary with one candidate on the ballot is "democratic" and that elections held when every candidate, including Hillary, was saying they wouldn't count should now count. Here is audio of Hillary saying that Michigan won't count:
http://www.jabberwonk.com/flinker.cfm?cliid=zydzt

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It is a difficult situation re: caucus states and popular votes I agree, but equally, these states *decided* that they wouldn't give all citizens a fair, equal and anonymous vote by holding primaries.
The real problem, I think, is that the whole delegate system (both in primaries and the GE) is designed to disenfranchise voters. People elect delegates, who can to varying degrees exercise their judgement on who to vote for, and delegate apportionment is only loosely proportional. When the elections aren't close, none of this matters, but when it's very close (eg now, or back in 2000 when Gore won 1 million more votes), it raises difficult questions on who the people have voted for. I imagine most people here wish it was the popular vote that was counted back in 2000?
The superdelegates need to weigh these matters up, as the rules allow. Some have chosen to disregard the popular vote in their own states - eg John Kerry and Kennedy, and it's up to the others now to decide how to vote their conscience for the good of the party.
The key point though, is that the judgement of superdelegates is an integral part of the nomination process, not some changing-the-rules-midstream concoction.

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I don't disagree that reforms of our nominating process could make it more democratic. As an Iowan who likes the participatory aspect of the caucuses, I can't quite agree with the characterization of them as undemocratic. "Democracy" is a varied concept. I'll grant that expanded participation is a desiderata under that concept, but anonymity is not necessarily. Consider the town hall tradition of democratic participation, for example. And, btw, the exit polls show wide representation of the groups Hillary has claimed are disenfranchised by caucuses.

In any case, I think that a conversation about reforms from Hillary's supporters would be more credible if they had been advocates of these kinds of reforms before she started losing. In the present context, it seems designed to discredit the likely Democratic nominee. Our process is not perfect, but it is not so flawed that the winner can be easily discredited. Obama has been winning by persuading voters and organizing nation-wide, 50 state support.

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Though I definitely agree with you Play, that Hillary wouldn't be pushing the superdelegate issue if she could avoid it!

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I would take Governor Rendell's position more seriously if he at least would acknowledge that the 'popular vote' tallies fail to count the numbers of voters who caucused. How can there be real comparisons, when structurally, all those individuals are not counted?

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At least at the moment (and thank goodness) the delegates, popular vote, and state tallies all agree. Let's hope, for the sake of peace, that this fact doesn't change.

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It's a Hail Mary.

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I remember way back in February, as South Carolina was getting ready to vote, The Clintons first floated the idea of claiming Florida and Michigan. Josh headed a post "No Way." Since then, The Clintons have successfully put across the idea that it's only fair that Florida and Michigan count in some way, shape or form. And that Pennsylvania should count for more somehow. The gaming, the racism, the Muslim rumors, the lying, cheating and filth as Keith so aptly put it have got to stop. Barack needs to change the narrative and call her on her crap once and for all.

The Clinton campaign is doing what any 3 year old knows works - if someone says "No" to something, you just whine and whine until they begin to negotiate with you just to make it stop!

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Someone please remind me why the Democratic Party has nominating rules at all.

Am I the only person thinking that there might be more than a few Americans who think a party that can't even nominate a candidate without all this nonsense is non functional and should not be handed power?

Because on the other side they're seeing that a whole lot of folks who hate McCain are willing to work with him to accomplish things. On this side, well it turns out everyone on this side is a racist or a misogynyst.

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Certainly "popular vote" should be considered along with "pledged delegates," "coattails" and other factors. But I call bullshit when HRC tries to count MI and FL.

How can you count popular votes from races where:

1) the voters were told their votes would not count. (MI and FL are the only two states in the country where Dem turn-out was lower than Repub turn-out);

2) the candidates are not allowed to campaign;

3) one of the candidate's name does not appear on the ballot;

Calling these "democratic elections" is a claim that would make Joe Stalin blush, but appearently the Clintons and many of their supporters have no shame.

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But the rules state that you need the most delegates to win. Are you going to complain about the electoral college in November, Governor? I doubt it. So shut up.

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The Clinton camp argument that "Hillary will win in the popular vote and that's what matters" is going to gradually become "Given all the money Obama's campaign has spent on advertising, if he doesn't win the popular vote by a substantial margin, there's a problem."

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desperately grasping at straws IS EXCELLENT NEWS!! FOR HILLARY!!!

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Wow Wow Wow!

I must have just woke up from having a very strange dream. In it I saw Hillary Clinton campaigning, debating, and doing everything in her power to try and win in the very first State Contest. In my dream that State was Iowa and it was holding caucuses. Did that happen or not Mr. Rendell?

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What rules state that superdelegates must gravitate to the winner of the most pledged delegates and not to the winner of the popular vote?

And what was your position on such when Gore won the popular vote in 2000?

Just wondering.

While we're at it, what rules state that superdelegates must gravitate to the winner of the most pledged delegates or the winner of the popular vote?

Don't forget that those are not the only metrics that count in Hillaryland.

Just give it to her already people. Bill owes it to her. Many party bigwigs owe him, and now hence owe her.

This Obama character is just a nuisance on Hillary's path to the coronation.

And as for Gore, sure people were upset he won the popular vote and didn't become President, but everyone accepted it because them's the rules.

What really pissed people off was the way the Supreme Court helped Bush steal Florida's Electoral College delegates.

Looks like Obama will win both the most delegates and the popular vote (with or without caucus go-ers) -- as I believe Gore did in the 2000 general election -- yet Camp Hillary would still have us believe she should be the Dem nominee, Super Delegates playing the role of Supreme Court in this year's fracas.

The rule of g.d. common sense that say that if, after 2000 and 2004, she gets the nomination under circumstances that look like stealing to Obama supporters, she will lose at least half of his voters in the general?

Look, no matter how much magical thinking and star wishing you guys apply, the mathmatics are ineluctable at this point. The best she can do now is to come to Denver behind in the pledged delgate cound and with an argument to the supers that says "if you count votes the way I say they should be counted, I have a slight popular vote majority." Obama will be there saying, "Hello? Pledged delegate lead and by my math, I'm ahead in the popular vote."

If she gets the nomination under those circumstances, after an angry and divisive floor fight the likes of which we haven't seen since 1968, do you really think Obama's supporters aren't going to go off like, well, Democrats did during the recount in 2000? Do you think any African American is going to turn out to vote for her after that? Do you not see how more than half of the rest of Obama's supporters will be carefully weighing whether four years of McCain would we worse than eight years of her?

And outside the convention hall, we'll be lucky if the worst thing we see in Denver is a mass demonstration, even assuming the anti-globalization anarchists leave their half-assed ninja suits and firebombs at home.

But hey, the risk of all of those things is totally worth it as long as she gets the nomination, right? That's more important than anything.

re: "anti-globalization anarchists leave their half-assed ninja suits and firebombs at home"

Can I still bring my liberated beagle?

Well, use your own judgment, but I'd think the combination of teargas and altitude sickness wouldn't be very good for him.

Oh, and my position on Gore in 2000 was that if W had fairly won Florida by a clear majority, he would have been entitled to the office even if California ran the popular vote up for Gore. As it happened, however, between Jeb's massive disenfranchisement of black men and the GOP's vote suppression tactics, the problems with the machine's and the Supreme Court's decision to stop the recount for reasons that made no damn sense at all, it was pretty much stolen.

And, btw, had Gore taken the high road and demanded a recount in every county rather than trying to play games and cream off the counties he thought were best for him, we wouldn't be having this conversation.

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Obama is up by over 800,000, if you include all the caucus states (w/ estimates for how many turned out in states where totals weren't reported), so this seems silly. Of course, if you throw in the Florida straw poll, the Michigan Potemkin election, and leave out caucus states, then, all of a sudden, it's close.

But the main point is: what popular vote? I mean, how can we compare/compile the popular vote of all these states when some states have early voting, and others don't. Some have absentee balloting, others don't. Some were caucuses, others primaries. Some included independents, others didn't. Some included not just independents but also Republicans. Some you could register (or re-register) the day of the election, some you had to register a week or two in advance, some you had to register a month in advance.

There's no uniformity at all in what's being measured in each of these states. I mean, this was one of the main reasons why we use delegates in the first place. As a proxy for popular support that ignores all those logistical issues of just adding votes up from different states.

What's more, sure, sometimes Obama might benefit from "delegate math". But Clinton has too. Look at Alabama, e.g. where Clinton only got 42% of the votes but got 48% of the delegates.

It's very very unlikely the Hillary will able to legitimately overtake Obama in the popular vote without also overtaking him with delegates. But that's not the play here; the play is to then say, "well, ok, so we don't know how many people actually voted for Obama in caucus states, if you can even call that voting at all, so let's ignore those...and, well, Michigan and Florida voted, so let's count those...and look, Hillary won!"

It's just another stab at the same argument: Obama's states should be ignored, and we should include MI and FL in Hillary's column even though their elections were total shams.

Pretty gross.

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Other posters have already pointed out that the caucus states make it hard to measure the popular vote. But laying that concern aside, there's a more fundamental problem with the popular vote - different states have different rules.

Think about that for a moment. Would we consider a general election legitimate if in one state, half the voting age population could cast ballots, and in another, the entire voting age population were eligible? But that's effectively how this system works - some states feature open primaries, some states have closed primaries. Tallying those results means nothing.

The only way to consider the nomination process legitimate is to start with this presumption: both candidates knew the rules and the metrics according to which success would be judged, and competed on that basis. Anything else leads to endless arguments over legitimacy.

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Hillary is destroying the Democratic party and any chance of the Democrats winning the election in the Fall. Can't some of the party elders talk to her before her scorched earth policy goes completely nuclear?

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"This is a wonderful way to disenfrancise the caucus states, where a much smaller proportion of the population will vote."

Wake up small state, mid size state, red state, super delegates!

This is offensive. Essentially only Ohio matters to these anti-democratic thieves.

CHEATOCRATS!

this whole nominating process sucks. it should be a straight popular vote (no caucuses allowed) or it should be a winner-take-all in each state like the republicans (ouch! it hurts to say that!)

superdelegates, proportional allocation, caucuses, voting order of the states, etc. is f-ed up in a major way.

it's easy to blame the candidates for the mess that we're in, but i think that's totally misdirected. the reality is that any serious candidate is going to fight for the nomination. some tactics work, some don't... some are ugly, some are less ugly... whoever designed the process should have thought of this eventuality between 2 strong candidates... and if they thought that superdelegates was the best way to break a near-tie or deadlocked situation, then they are now going to pay the price for this very undemocratic nominating process...

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kensdad, you sound sort of like the leaders in MI and FL last summer who said, 'This whole primary calendar sucks, so we're gonna break the rules we earlier agreed to". Chaos ensued for the whole party.
I guess that chaos is fine with you, who say, "This whole system sucks [counting delegates won], so it's ok to change the rules we all agreed to at the beginning.

i didn't say anything about changing the rules during this election season...

do you support the idea that superdelegates are free to exercise their own judgement? because that's the way that the rules read during this election season.

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Exactly. Further, delegates are awarded to areas based upon the intensity of Democratic support in past contests.
Rendell is right on this though: as a super-delegate, he can vote for anyone he chooses. And, if he wants to invent this specious "democracy of the popular vote" as a way of covering his ass when he votes as a superdelegate in August, I'm okay with that, too.
But I've got a problem with his trying to misinform the public. What's "democratic" about a willfully bamboozled voting public?

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I was an Iowa caucus-goer.

If they are going to use popular vote then they better figure out the numbers from the caucus states because I want my vote included.

If the caucus states aren't included then popular vote is not important. Focus on the pledged delegates.

As usual, the Clinton camp wants to change/break the rules.

I'm sick of it.

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Folks: Do not miss a very important concession. The Clinton Camp just blinked. Rendell is actually admitting that Senator Obama will win the most elected delegates.

Now, for his claim about the popular vote count. The voters went into the polling booths and caucuses knowing what they were voting for; the selection of elected delegates. They were under no illusions that they were entering into a cumulative nation wide popular vote contest. To try and change the meaning of what all those people were voting for, after the fact, would be to spit in the face of those who voted to select delgates to cast their proxy votes at the national convention.

Well, it was about time they realized the big state argument wasn't working.

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The key point is this:

The rules are that most delegates wins. The entire campaign strategy would shift if it were pure popular vote. Everyone would campaign in CA, NY, TX, FL, and a handful of other states from day one, and completely ignore the small states. The nomination process uses delegates for the same reason that the national election uses electoral votes -- because we have 50 States in our Union, and the president shouldn't be chosen by a handful of population centers. Furthermore, just ask Al Gore: since November isn't about the popular vote but rather an electoral system that gives the smaller states greater weight, the way to get the strongest candidate for November is to choose someone who has a true nationwide following.

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Ding, ding, ding...we have a winner here. This is the right rebuttal.

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How do Clinton and her surrogates continue to make these preposterous 'arguments' with a straight face?

If it were based on the popular vote - THEN IT WOULD BE - but it isn't. The process depends on the delegates.

Clinton and her campaign are so blinded by ambition they have NO SHAME.

March Madness Bracketology

In order to advance to the next round, you have to have the higher seed, or score more points, or score more three-point shots, or have a higher shooting percentage, or get more rebounds, or commit fewer turnovers, or have older players, or have an older coach, or be predicted to do best against the next opponent, or make more steals.

We decide during or after the game. I think HRC is depending on the last criterion.

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Smarter than a 5th Grader
______________________
I ask for your help in stopping the spread of the popular vote myth throughout the media for the Democratic nomination. Many TV, radio and newspaper, and internet blogs continue to claim that a valid path for the superdelegates to choose Hillary Clinton is if she wins the so-called popular vote. However, the popular vote should *not* be considered in the discussion (and thus be removed from all conversation, and be disregarded by the superdelegtes) because adding caucus results to primary results is like adding apples and oranges (nevermind that it's not even a part of any of the contest rules!).

Not an apples-to-apples comparison: The popular vote in caucus states inherently under-represents the state's population when compared to that of primary states, because fewer people participate in caucuses. Therefore, we use delegates to 'normalize' these two systems: the number of delegates won is representative of how the state voted, regardless of the system it chooses to select them.

Some 5th grade math: It's like adding 1/4 to 1/2. Before you add 1/4 to 1/2, you have to first create a common demoninator - the delegate is that common demoninator.

Let's take an example: Washington state (which Obama won) vs Oklahoma (which Clinton won). Since Washington State is a relatively populous state, it's awarded 78 delegates. However, since it used caucuses to determine it's delegates, it added very little to Obama's popular vote advantage (+90,000 according to dailykos), despite his winning by a HUGE margin there (53-25 in delegates). Compare that to Clinton's win in Oklahoma, which is about half the size of Washington: She won the popular vote in Oklahoma 55%-31%, though only came away with a 10 delegate advantage (24-14). However, she gained a +100,000 popular vote advantage since it's a primary state and many more people participated than in Washington's caucus.

Eventhough Clinton comes out ahead in the popular vote between these two states (Okla -(minus) Wash = +10,000), I don't think anybody would debate that her Oklahoma win was more significant than Obama's Washington state win (Okla isn't a "big state" afterall!).

I'd love it if all the news programs (and talk shows) stopped trying to use the popular vote to compare these two candidates. We have had this system which has been effective at normalizing these two processes for a very, very, long time, so please focus on the only math that matters: the delegate math!

Of course, the Clinton campaign will continue to push the popular vote question, and dedicate quite a bit of time discussing this myth leading up to Pennsylvania, Michigan and Florida, since it's the only numbers that they can spin the media into believing, though this is really 5th grade math, and they definitely aren't 'Smarter than a 5th Grader' here.

Please help stop the spread of the popular vote myth and put and end to this.

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Yes, and now there's a twist on the BIG state strategy. The U.S. will now no longer be a republic of individual states. We will now have one BIG state to be called Clintonia. It will have one Governor (Ferraro), two senators (Bill and Chelsea) and absolutely no representatives (too wishy-washy). All voting will be done by mail (send directly to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue via Pennsylvania).

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Come on people, Rendells just BEGGING for help. He knows Hillary is losing and wants to try and make voters THINK its the popular vote that COUNTS(according to the DNC RULES)

They want to stir the pot and remind folks how angry they were when Gore won popular vote but lost because of Florida in 2000.

Don't be Bamboozled.

Besides - I happen to BELIEVE Obama will have that count at the end of the day as he CURRENTLY does by almost a million.

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She's more a complainer than a fighter. She complains about the media being biased, she complains that the caucus system isn't democratic. In one debate she even complained that the order of questions wasn't fair. I know complaining that the referee wasn't fair is a legitimate tactic in some sports but the people who take that angle aren't ever considered "fighters"

When I was a kid, when I was losing a game, I'd try this, too: "Let's make it two out of three!"

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drosz

AMEN! The one constant in this campaign has been change. Whose campaign resembles the current administration? Does anymore need be said?

How funny, just last night I posted on this topic:

http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/2008/03/the-popular-vote-is-meaningles.php

The gist of it is this: the pledged delegate count is the 'real' popular vote.

(Which means Obama is winning the popular vote 52 to 46%)

Did you know that Rendell is currently retrofitting Pennsylvania's voting booths to make them higher?

That way, Hillary's supporters will be able to vote without having to remove their pointy, white hoods.

People should consider the counterfactual for a moment. Imagine if Clinton had an insurmountable pledged delegate lead right now.

Who thinks serious Party insiders would be coming up with alternative metrics and other hurdles for her to jump over? Declaring that she's unelectable unless she can carry every single state that her opponent currently has a lead in.

Let's be honest about what's going on here. This is the Party machine desperately trying to save its own. It's insiders who won't give up power. And it stinks. We look like some some Third World country where the Jefe has tried and failed to pick his successor and is now resorting to a Council of Guardians or the like.

At least the Republicans had the decency to give up on their machine candidate when it was clear he wasn't going to win the primaries.

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We'er talking about starting world war 111 in the democratic party! DUH!

Isn't the whole idea of the electoral process to eliminate big states with millions of people controlling every election?

Sorry Clinton, it's the rules. Obey them.

Right Ed, except that the nomination is given to the person with the most Delegates.

Now, if you want to try to convince the rest of the supers to vote for Hillary with your fuzzy math, please do so with the knowledge that you will be tearing apart the Democratic party, and not only handing the Presidency to McCain, but several other Republicans for a decade or two to come.

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The select delegates are proxy voters select by the voters in their States to go to the national convention and vote according to how they were elected.

The proxy delegates are to represent the will of the voters in each state, and not the will of an amorphous nationally tally.


Ask Rendell the following: How many US Senators are there, how many are from the largest state in the union, and how many are from the smallest state in the union. Get it Rendell. The smallest state has the same weight in the "world's greatest deliberative body" as the largest state, despite the fact that one state's population size dwarf's the other state's.

The founding fathers wanted it that way. Rendell, you are no Thomas Jefferson so STFU you double dealing jerk.

What gets me is this: If the rules are so obviously unfair, what have all these influential Democrats like Rendell and the Clintons being doing in the four years between Presidential elections about improving the rules? Have we ever heard from them of any perceived issues with the rules until Obama started doing well? And the fact that he has conspicuously played by the rules (and, yes, "played" the rules) is now to be held against his vast army of supporters so that Clinton can do an end-run?

Another problem with changing the rules is that it betrays the party members who have strategized with honoring the rules in mind. It's clear that Obama (and Axelrod) would have run a very different campaign if, say, the winner was to be chosen by "popular vote" (a meaningless term in the nomination process) and was to be ultimately decided by Michigan and Florida.

i dont get this argument seeing as how they're BEHIND in popular vote just like they're behind in everything else.

I think it's brilliant, even if unintentionally so. By spreading this argument, they will lead many people who read press about the argument to implicitly assume that since the Clinton campaign is arguing in favor of the popular vote, the Clinton campaign must be winning the popular vote.

The media, ever lazy, is unlikely to dissuade people from making this association by asking the question "who's winning the popular vote, though?" in press on the subject.

Ed Rendell is a son of a bitch.

RCP Info.

Popular vote total: Obama is leading by +703,726 votes.
Popular vote (with florida): Obama is leading by +408,954 votes.
Popular vote (with florida/michigan: Obama is leading by +80,645
which means he is leading between +0.2% to +2.6%

Obama has 212 super delegates and 1,406 pledged delegates...total: 1,618

Clinton has 248 super delegates and 1,246 pledged delegates....total: 1,494

Clinton has 36 more super delegates than Obama
Obama has 160 more pledged delegates

Obama is leading Clinton by 1.5% in the National Poll.... 45.8% to 44.3%

Clinton is leading Obama by 16.0% in the Pennsylvania primary Poll.... 51.8% to 35.8%

566 delegates left to hand out...however, does not include michigan or florida.

Clinton has won 17 Races
American Somoa, Arz., Ark, Calif, Fla, Mass,Mich,New Mexico, Nev. N.H., N.J., N.Y., Ohio, Okla,Rhode Island, Tenn.,Texas primary.

Obama has won 30 Races....wow
Ala., alaska, colo,conn.,D.C.,Del.,Democrates Abroad,Ga.,Hawaii,Idaho,Ill.,Iowa,Kan.,Louisiana,
Maine, Maryland, minn.,mississippi, missouri, nebraska, S. Carolina, N. Dakota, US Virgin Islands, Utah, Vermont, Virgina, Washington Caucus and primary, Wisconsin, Texas Caucus.

Puerto Rico will not have a caucus on June 7th, They will be holding an open primary on June 1st.

I appreciate your thoroughness listing all this information. The point many of us are making, however -- in stark opposition to Rendell's suggestion -- is that the popular vote has no meaning when states use vastly different methods to determine nominee preference.

The very reason for having delegates is to translate each state's results into a meaningful representation of popular sentiment that can be added to results in the other states.

In essence, the delegate count is the "real" popular vote, and Obama is winning that by 6% over Clinton.

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Very thorough. Two things:

Are you *really* counting Michigan in your "popular vote" math? Really?

And second, I'm pretty sure the difference in total superdelegates is 32 right now. He had a couple more endorse him this past week.

And polls are used to elect candidates . . . oh, that's right, NEVER. Elections are based on votes and delegates, not some half-assed survey of 2,000 voters who may or may not be telling the truth about their choice. So your poll data, unfortunately, does not help your case or change the fact that OBAMA IS WINNING, BIG-TIME.

One more time ObaFans:
One of the rules and metrics blah blah blah which Obama and HRC compete under says that super delegates are to use their own best judgement in deciding. That is the rule and Obama accepted it. Here he is as guilty of wanting to move the goal posts as is HRC. And that's OK. It is not cheating.

Rendell is putting forth the metrics he thinks should guide the supers in their choices just as Obama has put forward his own metrics, something that neither Rendell nor HRC nor Obama have the ability to impose on the convention.
In fact Obama himself has used popular vote, number of states won, and elected delegate count as arguments that he is all round winner and the supers should support him. HRC agrees with this while including the caveat that Big Blue Primary States should count for more than Little Red Caucus States. There is something to be said for that argument but not very much.

Why are ObaFans in such a tizzy over Rendell's suggesting something that BHO himself has put forward?