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Rasmussen: McCain Edging Both Dems In New Jersey
A new Rasmussen poll of New Jersey shows that this Northeastern state could be a toss-up this cycle, with John McCain edging both Democrats within the margin of error:
McCain (R) 46%, Obama (D) 45%
McCain (R) 45%, Clinton (D) 42%
It's interesting to note that Hillary Clinton has a home-region advantage here, but is actually performing behind Barack Obama against McCain — potentially putting a dent in the Clinton camp's argument about being more electable in Democratic base states.
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Until the race is officially decided for some time, no polls like this reflect the reality. Supporters of both actively campaigning Dem candidates will claim that they will not vote for the other, because they know it helps their candidate's media narrative. My guess would be that on average the polling, until the Dem race is decided (officially) and has sunk in, will tilt between 10 & 20 % more republican than reality.
By the way, John McCain is not actually leading both democrats. They are tied, unless that poll has less than a 1% margin of error.
March 31, 2008 9:22 AM | Reply | Permalink
The NJ machine, with all its provincial dynasties and epic corruption, will deliver the state for whichever Democrat is the nominee. Polls don't tell us about organization, arm-twisting, pay-to-play, etc.
March 31, 2008 9:25 AM | Reply | Permalink
I feel like a Cubs fan. Even when they've got a decent team and lots of momentum, they still find some way to lose.
March 31, 2008 9:29 AM | Reply | Permalink
well, if anyone can blow a clear advantage, it is you people. You know, I knew W wsa an idiot, and an unprincipled one at that, but the unbearable smugness of Gore deterred me from voting for him. And in 2004 I thought Kerry to be such an insufferable pompous ass I actually gave W 25 bucks just to get the thank you email to forward to my silly dumb bunny liberal friends. And now you fools are about to annoint a hack politician as your standard bearer. It's actually a little creepy to watch the Obama worship, is just because he's black and doesn't talk and dress like a thug? Clinton has been an incredible sleazeball in the past, but at least she's demonstrably smart. Since when did competence stop being a quality you people consider in voting for a politician?
March 31, 2008 9:31 AM | Reply | Permalink
Well, as you voted for Bush, I'm sure this point will be lost on you, but I actually value judgement in a politician.
So, for me the choice is between McCain, who can't even decide if he's pro-condom or not; Clinton, who was for NAFTA and the Iraq war before she was against it; and Obama.
Who is, like it or not, the best candidate.
And Obama will be President in 2008.
Oh, and please post the donation you made to McCain. I need a laugh.
March 31, 2008 9:59 AM | Reply | Permalink
You just admitted to voting for Bush twice because you feel threatened by confident Democrats. Kind of takes the bite out of your lecture on competence.
March 31, 2008 10:06 AM | Reply | Permalink
Dear Milla,
Well, I believe that we were looking to vote for competence in Gore, and looking to vote for at least a superior relative competence in Kerry. I, for one, look forward to voting for Obama, who actually inspires Americans to participate passionately and personally in American civics.
It seems like the rationales for your votes are not very thoughtful.
March 31, 2008 9:53 AM | Reply | Permalink
So you're upset that Democrats are nominating the former head of the Harvard Law Review, a professor of constitutional law, and a career politician at the state and recently national level, while you voted for George Bush TWICE? And somehow we're the ones who are guilty of voting for incompetence?
You're either joking or ridiculous.
March 31, 2008 9:55 AM | Reply | Permalink
"It's interesting to note that Hillary Clinton has a home-region advantage here, but is actually performing behind Barack Obama against McCain..."
Interesting, but not at all surprising. The more I've come to know Hillary Clinton, the less I like her, too. She'd have been better off not to campaign at all.
In fact, she's the anti-Obama in that way. He's been behind everywhere until people actually got to know him (and I expect that to continue when he can finally go toe-to-toe with McCain). She was 'inevitable' until people actually took a look at her. Last summer, I would have gladly voted for Hillary Clinton. Now, I wouldn't vote for her in any capacity (OK, yes, I'd hold my nose and vote for her against McCain, but I wouldn't like it much).
March 31, 2008 10:10 AM | Reply | Permalink
NJ always polls red and Republicans always throw in resources thinking they can take it and then come election time it always goes blue. I will literally eat a hat rack if NJ votes for McCain.
March 31, 2008 10:16 AM | Reply | Permalink
I agree with folks like Jayasurya that I have a hard time crediting a McCain victory in NJ regardless of whom we nominate. More worrisome, to my mind, are states like WI and OR which show indications of inching towards the red column. If we cannot even hold on to the states which Kerry carried, we will be in real trouble. Flipping OH or VA is all for nought if we cannot hold on to the states which we carried in 2004.
March 31, 2008 10:46 AM | Reply | Permalink
Until the Democrats coalesce around a single nominee, these polls are meaningless, specially when they are this close.
March 31, 2008 10:52 AM | Reply | Permalink
If Hillary destroys the Democratic party on her way out the door then you'll see trends like this all the way to November. She will do more damage than good by staying in at this point. Our beloved media is doing us no favors by perpetuating the myth that she is still in this race.
When Hillary says she's going to stay in until August, what she's saying is that she is going to continue to dig up as much dirt on Obama as she can between now and the convention to try to scare the piss out of the super delegates. This scorched-earth policy is disgusting and fatal to the party's chances in November.
If it fails (which it probably will) then she will have succeeded in giving McCain tons of ammo against Obama. If she somehow gets the nomination using these tactics, then she will alienate a huge swathe of the party and will appear to the rest of the country as a conniving, back-stabbing opportunist who will stop at nothing to get power.
Either way, we lose in November. When will the powers that-be step forward and tell her that enough is enough?
March 31, 2008 11:17 AM | Reply | Permalink
oh you dumb bunnies. I wrote that I gave W 25 bucks in 04, because it was easy, and I liked the idea of irking my silly liberal friends, and because I thought America (of the KKK of A!) desserved four more years of the moron. But I didn't vote for him. He's a nasty little fuck as well as a moron. And Obama doesn't impress me at all. Any African-American male with an 80th percentile LSAT can get into HLS, and they don't even need to grade onto the review. So I ain't so convinced that Obama-wan is so smart.
March 31, 2008 11:21 AM | Reply | Permalink
You have friends?
March 31, 2008 11:33 AM | Reply | Permalink
Hey, I hear the only reason Barack Obama got to be editor of the Harvard Law Review was because he's a black man. If he had been a white man or a woman (of any race) he wouldn't have been in that position he was in. And don't disagree with me. You're just attacking me because I'm Asian! How's that?
March 31, 2008 12:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
I always find the Rasmussen polls implausible
March 31, 2008 11:43 AM | Reply | Permalink
New Jersey always appears as a swing state early, then comes home in a big way on election day.
See: polling/results for the 2006 Senate race.
In the end, the Republicans waste money and we win. As such, I say "Hooray!" to this poll.
March 31, 2008 12:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'd just like to point out that polling done by SurveyUSA has put Obama one point behind McCain in Texas. For some reason, people only seem to care about how the blue states are moving towards McCain, and not the red states towards Obama.
http://www.surveyusa.com/index.php/2008/03/06/electoral-math-as-of-030608-obama-280-mccain-258/
It's an electoral college map, and, admittedly, done at the beginning of the month. But the facts are still there. Scroll down for poll numbers in all the states.
The other thing to realize is, KevinQ is right -- none of this really matters at this point in the race. There's still too much support for both Obama and Hillary to get an accurate read of how they would do in the general election against McCain. Wait til the Dem. Primary is wrapped up, then we'll really be able to see.
March 31, 2008 1:30 PM | Reply | Permalink