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Poll: One Quarter Of Florida Dems Less Likely To Vote For Nominee Without Delegates
A new poll out of Florida, commissioned by the St. Petersburg Times, gives some credence to the Hillary campaign's argument that the failure to seat the state's delegation could cause serious damage to the eventual Dem nominee this Fall.
If Florida's delegates are not counted, are you any less likely to support the Democratic candidate for president?
No, not less likely 66%
Yes, much less likely 14%
Yes, somewhat less likely 10%
Don't know/refused 9%
That's a full 24% of of Florida Democratic voters, saying this whole fiasco could cause them to sour on the national party and the eventual nominee.
As for a hypothetical new primary, at this point an impossibility, it would be a close race: Hillary 46%, Obama 37%.
(Via Ben Smith)
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What a crock. Emotions are high now - once there is an election in the fall, their minds will change.
March 18, 2008 5:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
I suppose that the slight silver lining to this is that we were never really likely to carry Florida in the first place. As such, this is unlikely to make much of a difference.
March 18, 2008 5:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
Why waste the gd money, just split the delegates 50/50. This is absurd. Clinton didn't break 50% with everything in her favor, she probably won't break 50% now.
March 18, 2008 5:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Florida Democrats point the finger of blame for the primary debacle in several directions:
28 percent blame Republican leaders in the Legislature (where the blame belongs)
25 percent blame Democratic National Committee Chairman Howard Dean (my guess this is Eric's 25%, the misinformed)
20 percent blame the Florida Democratic party. (where the blame belongs)
March 18, 2008 5:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hey FLA: Snap out of it!
Seriously, FL Democrats are actually going to vote for the Animated Corpse(TM) just because their delegates won't get seated? Get a grip people.
March 18, 2008 5:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
That's really dishonest of you.
McSame's not that animated.
March 18, 2008 6:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, it's the same as all the folks around here who stomp their feet and say they'll vote for McCain if Obama doesn't get the nom.
March 18, 2008 8:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Eric, I read this the exact opposite way.
Recall that this is an ongoing situation in which the respondents are materially involved in. I will assume some premises, please dispute if you disagree:
1. Some number of respondents will use their answer to affect discourse, as a bluff or threat. Incidentally, these people have probably chosen the more extreme "much less likely" option.
2. Those who say they would not vote are more likely to be Clinton supporters.
3. Clinton's support in the state is, conservatively, 55% right now. In other words, only half of Clinton supporters while this is still an issue that can be affected chooses not to argue with it.
From this, I conclude that there is at most a contingent of 5-11% of Democrats who would not vote Democratic or at all if Obama is the nominee. This is not statistically significant from the overall crossover estimate.
So this is, to paraphrase one of our favourites here, NOT EXCELLENT NEWS!!! FOR HILLARY!!
March 18, 2008 6:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
For some reason I can't reply to your posts former poster Gregg D. You know I disagree on that and its the 50 state strategy. Even if dems don't carry florida, dems need to pick up house and state legislative seats, so a play for it has to be made and obama has a better chance than the clintons to take the state.
March 18, 2008 6:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
As it happens, dear Michael A, I agree with you. I do think that Obama would be a bigger help to our downticket candidates than would Clinton. Meanwhile, I agree with the idea of the 50 state strategy, but that does not mean that I legitimately expect that we will win all 50 this time around.
March 18, 2008 6:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
There's not a single piece of evidence in support of that statement, but there is evidence suggesting Clinton has a better chance than Obama in beating McCain in Florida
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/fl/florida_mccain_vs_clinton-417.html
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/fl/florida_mccain_vs_obama-418.html
You shouldn't need to lie to make your candidate sound good!
March 18, 2008 6:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
I am not sure that those links really constitute evidence that Clinton has a better chance than Obama of beating McCain in the fall. It would be nearer the mark to say that she has a better chance than Obama of losing by a narrow margin. To the extent that polls taken 8 months out count as evidence, however, it seems that the evidence suggests that they would both lose FL. In this respect I think that the Pollster graphs (which track the same data as RCP) are more helpful, because they show not just an average of the numbers but also the trendline linking the data points. As you can see, McCain is gaining against both Clinton and Obama.
March 18, 2008 6:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
My argument was more with the meme that Obama has a better chance against McCain; they each do better than the other in some states, but overall pretty similar (Hillary seems to be slightly ascendent atm).
If you remember your statistics, though, if the polls show Hillary closer on average to McCain than Obama, then they do, in fact, suggest that she has a better chance of winning against McCain than Obama. It's just that the probability is below 50%.
March 18, 2008 7:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
Eric,
Of course many Florida Democrats report that they're less likely to vote for the nominee if their greivances aren't addressed. The only suprise is that the number isn't even higher.
But this is a classic illustration of how to lie with statistics. The only question that matters is whether, in November, the pull the lever for McCain or for a Democrat (or whether they stay home entirely). I'd submit that these numbers measure anger and frustration, not the electoral impact of those emotions. I may be "much less likely," but still make the same choice I did before. There's really not much in these numbers we didn't already know.
March 18, 2008 6:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
That is many months from now. Likely things will heat up and people will surprise themselves by going out to vote! After all, they may have other candidates on the ballot. Congress people, for example. Once they're there, they will likely cast a vote.
People are not all that good about forecasting what they will do in 6+ months.
March 18, 2008 6:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
Exactly. Only 14% say it is makes them much less likely to vote Democratic. This is a remarkably low number for a poll like this. The idea that this reflects "serious damage" strikes me as patently ridiculous.
March 18, 2008 6:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
I love these comments!
- "We were never likely to carry Florida". Right! We will compete in red states, not the swing states. Smart and totally in line with the politics. Done!
- "This is many months from now. They will come around. What matters is what they do in November". OK. Let's call their bluff for now, then come back and check on them in November: "Snap out of it, kids, vote for us!"
- Karl Marx is impressive, as always.
March 18, 2008 6:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
They'll come around.
March 18, 2008 6:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wishful thinking
March 18, 2008 7:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
george bush and john mccain make this more than just "wishful thinking"
the lesson of cutting off your nose to spite your face comes to mind
if the voter of Florida want to vote their PAST GRIEVANCES, I think mccain is the more apt target of their ire
what are people more likely to be pissed about in November, the Democratic Primary process, or the Iraq clusterfuck
which pisses YOU off more right now ???
March 19, 2008 4:54 AM | Reply | Permalink
Hillary voters won't vote for Obama! It's news!
McCain/Clinton '08!!!!!!!!!!!!!
March 18, 2008 6:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
A Modest Proposal:
Figure out which States were displaced by Michigan and Florida jumping ahead of them.
Total up how the cumulative elected delegates were split in those displaced States, between Obama and Clinton.
Divide the full Florida and Michigan elected delegate totals in proportion to how the elected delegates in the displaced States went between the two candidates.
I think that would satisfy all. It would seat all the Florida and Michigan delegations, and it would not reward them for having jumped out of turn.
You will not get a fairer solution than that. It cost no money or time, and both States get to avoid being treated as outlaws at the convention.
March 18, 2008 7:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Typical Obamite response to the problems: screw the Michigan and Florida voters.
March 19, 2008 2:27 AM | Reply | Permalink
This is such a poorly designed survey question on so many levels --- ("No, not less likely". Triple-negative anyone?). Plus, the "middle" response, which in this case is a "yes, less likely" always gets an advantage over the "edge" responses, so its probably inflated a bit. And, they have a good 7 months to think it over. I don't think there is much one can draw from it.
March 18, 2008 7:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
If citizen's choose to NOT exercise their right to vote and Florida goes to John McCain by a small margin, that is their decision.
If the Dems lose the election and our country goes down the toilet for another 4 years, those 25% will have nobody to blame but themselves.
March 18, 2008 7:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
So---one of the states Hillary could carry, but barack probably cannot---will vote for McCain anyway. Might as well go with the candidate who can carry the states that Hillary cannot. Write off Florida----Hillary's attempted theft of delegates there has ruined democrat chances anyway.
March 18, 2008 8:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
Florida and Michigan both need their delegates to be seated and revotes are the only fair solution. But, any suggestion that during the general election, when all of this will have been out of the news for a year that this will be the deciding factor for that large a percentage of people is BS.
We should revote and seat the delegates because it's the right thing to do. The DNC should even pay for the cheapest methods possible and Dean should say, "We don't like this but we don't blame our rank and file members so we're doing this... this time, never again."
But that's a moral argument.
People won't care about this a year from now. You'd have to believe that everyone reads and comments on blogs to believe otherwise.
March 18, 2008 8:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
Both Michigan and Florida have been close and will be close in November. Obama's strategists have either written off these states in the GE or think that he can persuade enough voters in the fall which is doubtful. Despite the tenor of this site the statistics at Pollster is that the Clinton voters were more dissatisfied with the prospect of Obama than vice versa. Clinton keeps the Reagan Democrats and Obama loses them.
March 19, 2008 2:32 AM | Reply | Permalink
Very bad news for Hillary:
http://www.surveyusa.com/index.php/2008/03/06/electoral-math-as-of-030608-clinton-276-mccain-262/
She can't win without Florida.
Not a big problem for Obama:
http://www.surveyusa.com/index.php/2008/03/06/electoral-math-as-of-030608-obama-280-mccain-258/
For Obama, Florida is just gravy.
March 18, 2008 8:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
You're crazy, observer2. Those survey numbers are way too close to comfortably call for the Dems in the GE. One terrorist attack or international incident between Aug. and Nov., and McCain is the president.
March 18, 2008 10:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
Unless the clintons steal the nomination, then its mccain as president in 08, regardless of what happens. The f'n buffoon still doesn't know that the sunnis hate the shiites, even after 5 years of the travesty in iraq. Al Queda is training in iran?????? WTF?????
March 19, 2008 1:37 AM | Reply | Permalink
Actually went and looked at the results, such as they were, and found the following:
a) Poll was of people who were "interested" in voting in both the Republican and Democratic primaries, or as we call them out here in the real world, "everyone."
b) Only 16% said not having delegates counted would make them "much less likely" to vote for the Democratic nominee.
How many of that 16% would have voted for the Democratic nominee anyway, ummm, who knows, but it could well be next to zero given that they were polling Republicans as well as Democrats.
And, hell, let's face it, if we had to win Florida to win the presidency under the best of circumstances we'd be screwed. Know how many times Florida has gone Democratic since 1952? Three. That's right three effing times. Take a look:
http://uselectionatlas.org/
(This is a great site, btw, even if he did guess wrong about which party was going to be "Blue" and which was going to be "Red" when he first started.)
In 1964, the biggest landslide for a Democrat in modern history, Florida, LBJ beat Goldwater by a whopping 1.15%. In 1976, 51.93% of Floridians voted for Jimmy Carter. And in 1996, the one year we really didn't need their stinkin' electoral votes, they generously voted to give Bill Clinton a second term with 48.02% Yep, that's right, if not for Ross Perot pulling close to 10% of the vote that year, Robert "Sunny Bob" Dole would have had Florida's electoral votes.
Screw Florida. They send the vilest Republicans and the most spineless DINOs in the nation to Congress, elect people named Bush governor, and waste our time and money in the general.
And as long as I've had my rant button pushed, Crist and the rest of the Republicans in that state have a lot of goddam nerve making pious pronouncements about anyone "disenfranchising" voters. Are you kidding me? The people who run the most thuggish disenfranchisment pograms in the nation have the gall to talk to the DNC about disenfranchisement?
March 18, 2008 8:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
Bravo!
March 18, 2008 9:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hypocrisy. America's favorite past-time.
March 18, 2008 9:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
WHAT THE HELL IS OBAMA IR CLINTON SUPPOSED TO DO ABOUT THIS?
Sorry for the shouting, but this is ONE issue that shouldn't divide us.
The Florida Democrats decided against having a revote. End of story.
Nothing Hillary or Obama can do about it now,
March 18, 2008 10:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
The Florida delegates will be seated at the convention, everybody agrees on that. They will probably divide them 50/50 which is the fair way to do it. If they do the proposed half-nelson in Florida, where Hillary nets about 19 delegates over Obama, than that is essentially saying that their primary did count when the rules says it didn't. This is just a poll put out there for the Clintons' benefit. They have a lot of power in the media and established officials. But hopefully not enough to steal the nomination. I'm counting on Pelosi, Kennedy, and Gore to keep that from happening.
March 19, 2008 3:12 AM | Reply | Permalink
The writing is on the wall for those who can read. The Clinton campaign's arguments will be proven correct by November. Either Hillary is the nominee, or Obama goes down to a massive and by Nov. not so stunning defeat. The Wright thing has sunk him--it was always there and it came out earlier than it might have. Obama has peaked. Can anybody still hear that old Willie Nelson tune, "turn out the lights, the party's over. . . " ?
March 19, 2008 9:15 AM | Reply | Permalink
"You're crazy, observer2. Those survey numbers are way too close to comfortably call for the Dems in the GE. One terrorist attack or international incident between Aug. and Nov., and McCain is the president."
Why? A terrorist incident will effectivly prove that Bush's war on privacy has not made us safer. GOP fail that test.
The bigger point is that Hillary needs FL. That's a problem, since it makes it easier for the GOP to steal that state and its over.
Obama has more margin for error. His whole candidacy doesn't rest on winning FL.
http://www.surveyusa.com/index.php/2008/03/06/electoral-math-as-of-030608-obama-280-mccain-258/
March 19, 2008 11:12 AM | Reply | Permalink
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December 29, 2008 4:13 AM | Reply | Permalink