GO NC!! From a VA ex-patriate.

That's still a lot of undecideds, which is one of the things Kos pointed out (specifically with the "white" vote).

I'm looking, like him, for a 20+ point win there, no matter what happens in Penn.

Also PPP Poll the other day:

PPP (D) 03/24 - 03/24 673 LV
Obama: 55
Clinton: 34

Obama +21.0

Well, NC doesn't count, because he was expected to win there.

Or something.

My sense is that Clinton is not going to take PA by anything like the poll numbers showing today. Obama says he will consider it a "victory" if he loses by 10%, but it will probably closer when you factor in that Clinton Fatigue is beginning to kick in big time. Factor in Bill "Judas" Richardson's endorsement (I assume Latinos in PA know who Richardson is), and Obama can come on strong. He is smart to underplay his chances though.

Unless Obama runs into another tsunami, Hillary will be lucky to win PA by 5-7%. That could be a deal killer for her because PA is the last state with ideal demographics for her.

With todays speech on the economy, Obama has gotten his game back. Clinton on the other hand is off her game and grasping at straws. (She has been spending a lot of time and emotional energy explaining Bosnia instead of real campaigning.) You can always tell she is in dire straits when Bill pops up out of his box, and he has lately.

And, with her(by proxy)attack on Pelosi she is probably not endearing herself to the supers, the very people she needs to take this from Obama. That was certainly an odd tactic for them to use, since it paints her and her surrogates as whiners. Funny how often it is that the most privileged are the biggest whiners.

Clinton will win PA, probably by margins very similar to her OH win. The demographics are very similar, she has the support of the Democratic governor and much of the establishment there. As a North Carolinian, I'd imagine the contest here will be close. Clinton starts a distinct underdog, but they are both investing in the state. It will be nowhere near the blowout Obama got in SC though.

I really don't imagine Gov. Richardson's endorsement is going to result in any substantial increase in Latino support for Obama. He left the race a long time ago and wasn't able to win Latino support himself when he was still running for president.

Just a clarification, but whomever eventually gets the nomination is going to receive it because of superdelegate support. Neither Clinton nor Obama is going to win enough pledged delegates to get this. Nothing's been taken away from anybody.

In addition, if Obama is all about counting every vote, why did his campaign block new contests in Michigan and Florida? Out of political self-interest. He's a politician, not a saint. He knows he'd lose Florida and fight a close contest in Michigan. But why alienate those states? It's not like he's actually going to win KS, MS, ID or any other deeply red state. Clinton would have a good chance at eclipsing his popular vote margin if revotes were held, putting a monkey wrench in his "claim" to the nomination.

As others note, I too think Clinton will rout Obama in Pennsylvania by at least as much as she did in Ohio. North Carolina will be different and I think Obama will not win by double-digits. In any case, I think the percentages will be more telling--a sweep of Black votes is anticipated but if the percent is lower, even now at 79% is lower than the 90% range he has been achieving it will mark a softening of his Black support. And, as well, if he loses the White vote it will feed the electability argument as Obama because he has become so polarizing. And like others, Richardson's Judas endorsement has no bearing on either of these states and likely none of the upcoming states.

A simple question: What will it take for HRC supporters to admit reality, she is a loser? Or as my 22 year old nephew says, Why would anyone support a candidate that is still living in the 70s... this is 2008?

Clinton's public image

The "electability" argument only works for Clinton if there is clear evidence that she is SIGNIFICANTLY more electable. We are nowhere near that. In fact, Rasmussen has the Clintons losing to McCain by 6 in Oregon, while Obama leads McCain by 6.

CT: Obama +17, Clintons +3
CA: Obama +9, Clintons +3
NV: Obama +4, Clintons +1
WA: Obama +6, MCCAIN + 3
MN: Obama +4, MCCAIN + 1
NY: Obama +11, Clintons +10
CO: Obama Tie, MCCAIN +14
NH: McCain +3, McCain +6
FL: McCain +4, McCain +7

Are there polls showing the Clintons ahead? Of course. The point is that the electability argument can never work when head-to-heads show the Clintons losing or endanger of losing key states like CA, WA, OR, and MN. There's no point in winning OH, if you lose a slew of smaller must haves.

The Clintons needs a huge scandal to hit Obama. They should wait for that from the sidelines. There's nothing to say that they couldn't step in later.

"And a fair number of white Democrats -- and they are the real swing group -- say she's hard to like, 43 percent"

Hillary's likable enough.

PS counts only if Hillary wins there. Otherwise the only upcoming Primary that counts is the one in Guam. Why is the Democratic party even counting delegates from states that Hillary did not win? Do they not know that the only states, delegates, and supporters that count are those that support Hillary?

Seriousely though... The queen has no clothes.

Nobody would be more excited about an Obama win in PA than me. However, short of some type of implosion in the Clinton camp, it's not gonna happen. She'll probably win PA with more or less the same margin she won Ohio. Obama will win NC by a little less than 10 pts.

Unless a sizable traunch of superdelegates show public support for Obama, I think this thing will limp into the convention, where Obama will probably win on the first round.

If Obama wins by more than 10 pts in NC and at least ten Supers support Obama in the same week, then perhaps Clinton will concede. At that point she may be looking for an "out" to save herself the embarrassment of losing at the convention.