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Poll: Hillary Widens Lead In Pennsylvania

The new Quinnipiac University poll (no link available yet) finds that Hillary is now leading Obama in Pennsylvania by 12 points among likely Dem voters, 53%-41%, double the six-point lead she held in the state in late February.

The survey also finds that the electorate in the state has grown more polarized as Hillary's support among whites has grown to 61% while Obama's lead among blacks has jumped to 76%. She's firmed up her base in other areas, too, increasing her lead among women and cutting into his lead among men -- movement that Quinnipiac concludes has given her a burst of momentum in the state.

The poll was taken March 10-16, meaning that for several days polling took place during the raging controversy over the incendiary remarks by Obama's pastor, Jeremiah Wright -- suggesting the likelihood that the comments (for the time being, anyway) have polarized the electorate and boosted Hillary's white support.


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Urg, I don't even know what to say, if this stupid Wright non-issue really effects anyone's candidate preference, I think I will lose all faith in democracy, this country, and Democrats.

How stupid can people get?

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If I was an automatic delegate, I'd be very interested in the PA results.

If I were an automatic delegate, I'd vote for Barack Obama.

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If I was an automatic delegate, I'd realize that I'm actually called a superdelegate. Just saying.

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I don't really like that term. Wiki says they're actually, "unpledged party leader and elected official delegates," so maybe I'll call them unpledged delegates.

You mean "super delegate"? You are an automatic moron for pushing Ickes term.

LOL!!!

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It would have been funny at Little Green Footballs.

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It is precisely because this type of racism stil exists that I have been so appalled by Obama's invocation of phony charges of racism.


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When did Obama ever invoke racism? I mean, show me the specific quotes where he actually claimed anyone was a racist.

Of course, the Hillary campaign has done everything they could to pretend that Obama was calling people racist or whatever. They know it would turn people off if Obama "played the race card", but since he hasn't done that, they've just falsely claimed that he has. Abetted by internet trolls such as yourself.

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He uses a mealy mouthed approach: I would never say that so and so is a racist but their campaign just did a racist thing.

If you haven't picked up how he does this I probably can't help you.

Kerry's intended laudatory remark about how great it is that Americans can support someone with Obama's background was portrayed by Obama as an attempted smear by the Clinton campaign despite the fact that Kerry had said the same thing long before he chose sides. And, of course, Obama accepted Kerry's grovelling apology.

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You mean, "I think its great that he was educated in a madrassa"?

That's sort of like "I think it's great that Hillary allows Bill to get some BJ action on the side."

Her base is filled with racists. What do you expect?

really, what other argument does Obama campaign have? except the one to accuse another side of being racist!

OK, the other argument is that her base is filled with people who are not educated. She banks on these ignorant masses to get her wins.

By the way, where are her tax returns?

And why did she authorize a war that has resulted in the death of 4,000 Americans, and tens of thousands of Iraqi's?

And why did she give Bush another blank check for Iran last year?

Oh, I forgot, her idiot supporters don't have a clue what I'm talking about.

bonox, hoost: stop acting like children, please. I swear it gets harder every day to even look at comments on sites. "Idiotic supporters", "her entire base is racist", "Obama's only argument is calling the other side racist". Really?? This is the level of discourse you guys want?

Breakdowns in PA polls between urban/metro areas and rural/small town areas would be interesting. The candidates probably get their polls broken down this way.

Divide and conquer. The tactics never change.

Maybe that's why we never get better results from our politicians?

Actually this is an IMPROVEMENT over SurveyUSA's poll from March 11th, which had Clinton with a 19 point lead.

I'd say 12 points was an improvement.

Not even close to the kind of utter blowout win she'd need to make a significant dent in the race. That's not intended as a slam, just a factual statement.

To call the Rev. Wright issue a non issue is absolutely absurd. It is important to democrats, and if Obama is the nominee, it will pale in comparison to Hillary in energizing the repulican base. For Rev. Wright to blame the killing of over 3000 innocent people from 86 different countries on anyone but the terrorists themselves is outrageous. Barack Obama is pretty slick saying he wasn't there when he said it, for anyone to believe that in over 5 years he had no knowledge of it being said is not believable; period. That is why I think he phrased his answer to say he wasn't there. You can simply say I am a racist if you wish, it is not true. I would rather think of myself as a patriotic, mainstream American. All black people in this country did not get here by way of slavery. Obama credits Kennedy for paving the way for his own father to come here and attend school. The truth is that people of all races still want to immigrate to this country. For whatever our history holds, it is still the land of the free and home of the brave. I will never accept the logic of Rev. Wright that America is bad. For all the hardships the Rev has had to bear, he did pastor a 8,000 memeber church and obtain 4 degrees. I hardly think that he has been held back by the white man to live his dream. It is that very freedom that lets him stand behind his pulpit and spew his hatred of America and the white man.

You are right, Obama hates whites, thinks we should have been attacked on 9/11, and thinks America is awful. Thanks for clearing that all up for me.

I do not wish to argue with you. Please do not twist my words. I did not say those things about Obama. There is an old saying, "you are known by the company you keep" that goes to the heart of Obama's problem with this.

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Huh, that pretty much summarized your rant. What are we missing? Before he was the muslim manchurian candidate and now he is the white-hating and america-hating manchurian candidate. I wonder what it will be next month. Can't beat him on the merits, so make garbage up. Pathetic.

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What you're really saying is that you believe in guilt by association.

How very Joe McCarthy of you---you must long for the return of the House Un-American Activities Committee and its red-baiting smear tactics.

You seem like the kind who would rat on his own family if it would benefit your own narrow, bigoted interests.

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Bingo.

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Show me where Obama has said anything like that. If his pastor says something, and then Obama says he disagrees with it, that doesn't mean he secretly agrees with it.

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well, notwithstanding I disagree with 99.9% of your post, wright is an issue, not nearly in the way that you describe it. Also, there is or was no dem candidate that could energize the republican base like the clintons can. They get the gold star on that one.

I understand, I knew that not many here would agree with my thoughts. I appreciate your civility, only wanted to express my opinion.

So, you don't think America was bad to black slaves, where MOST African-American came from?

You don't think it's bad medical experiments killed innocent people? Up until 1972?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tuskegee_Study_of_Untreated_Syphilis_in_the_Negro_Male

You think it was all right that it was illegal for blacks to marry whites? Until 1967?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anti-miscegenation_laws

Someone today at work wondered why blacks were still upset at "ancient history."

Tell that to someone's mother, who lived during it.

Tell that to somebody now, who still experiences racism in the perfect, never can be wrong, United States of America.

If I gave the impression that I think any of the things you mention was in some way ok, then I apoligize. I was speaking as to whether Rev. Wright was a problem for Obama, which I believe he is.

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Well, maybe it's a problem for you but in the general election the republicans have been backed by crazy preachers who claim that America deserved 9/11 because of TEH GHEY and the ACLU, McCain's best bud Hagge claimed that all catholics were devil worshipers, etc.

The ridiculous double standards on this Wright thing are absurd. And by the way, claiming that our foreign policy was in part responsible for 9/11 isn't just just reasonable, it's true. To claim otherwise is to cover your eyes and ears and agree with bush that "They hate us for our freedoms".

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Pretty stupid. Look at new hampshire and the success of the clintons race baiting or whatever you want to call it. I am very concerned. I guess we'll have to see how it plays out. Unfortunately, there is a large portion of the electorate that the right-wing corporate media spin on this issue may have an impact.

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Ugh, this comment system. This was a reply to wwjb

You can't exactly compare polls from two organizations to another, so the headline is technically correct. I don't think we'll know for a couple weeks how badly Wright has hurt Obama. I'm glad it came out now, not just because it allows Obama time to address the issue and repair the damage, but also because it will help shed light on how viable his candidacy really is. If the average voter is as disturbed by Wright as all the Clinton clutists, than this country is probably still too racist to elect a black man president. Then it will be clear that the only religion that matters in this country is lily-white, anti-gay, anti-Catholic and pro-rich. Anything different is unpatriotic and dangerous.

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I am getting awfully sick of concern trolls like the Unionsuit, here, telling us about Rev. Wright. There is a excellent article in the Washington Post today concerning Rev. Wright.Read it! Did you know he was a Marine Corp Vet? Did you know the 8000 member church you mention was 80! members when he took over. He built it up to its current status. Right leaning Dems like Unionsuit should appreciate he business acumen.

Personally I don't have a problem with what he said. We bitch about "terrorist" having no concern for human life and launch missiles from ships hundreds of miles away into Bagdad neighborhoods. We have planes flying daily bombing missions in Iraq right now. These bombs do not discriminate between "terrorists", women or children, We complain about Iran getting Nuclear weapons when we hold the largest stockpile in the world. We killed how many civilians in Nagasaki? 100,000, in seconds? One most know their past to know themselves. I don't hate American because I hold these views, but I do know truly know her.

You're forgetting that the dead women and children in Baghdad as well as those in Hiroshima and Nagasaki weren't white. Dead people who aren't white don't count. It's the white supremist Christian way. And God (who's also white) is on their side.

This is better than last week's 20-point SUSA poll. The previous Quinnipiac was conducted before HRC and McCain teamed up on BHO for 2-3 weeks.

HRC's success line is 20 points in PA.

Last week Clinton was up by 6 pts?

Did anyone else miss that poll? I haven't seen a PA poll under 10% yet.

I don't recall that poll either, but it was apparently taken in February, so it probably got lost in the noise of all the Texas and Ohio polling. In fact, with everything that happened since February, I'm kind of surprised her lead has only buumped by 6 in PA since that time.

Fact is, Wright's rant (and Obama's ascendancy generally) is exposing the deeply conflicted feelings many blacks have about "America" the symbol. Obama has to make history by both acknowledging this perspective and sowing the means for Americans to transcend it.

Obama holds a lead among college-educated whites (like myself) because we have seen this coming and already have an understanding, whereas non-college-educated whites (like many of my relatives) are not wholly racist, but just cannot reconcile the vitriol they hear from Wright with the idea that Obama is himself mainstream enough to represent all of America. This is a legitimate philosophical question.

Of course anyone with enough perspective on Obama understands he CAN represent all of America, but he has to seize the Wright problem, articulate better how he transcends the radical Wright perspective, and ensure the confidence of the broad swath of Americans. Its a big challenge, but it is part of what he had to know would be an inevitable dimension of his path to the presidency.

Task:

"he has to seize the Wright problem, articulate better how he transcends the radical Wright perspective, and ensure the confidence of the broad swath of Americans. Its a big challenge, but it is part of what he had to know would be an inevitable dimension of his path to the presidency."

DONE!


Wow. Did you forget to include male in your resume of qualifications to be insulting? The rest of the nation - that would be the majority who aren't white, college-educated, or male, and of course are Hillary supporters are what... ignorant trailer trash unaware of local, let alone world affairs?

Of course anyone with enough perspective can see that not only are your comments insulting, but also arrogantly condescending, and if that is the character of Obama's base, then you can have him.

"If I was an automatic delegate, I'd be very interested in the PA results"

hahahahahah

Greg, I'm not saying that I don't believe your numbers, but what's the point of pushing this before you can give us a link? Don't we deserve to see the data for ourselves?

excuse me....may I interrupt the crying for a minute to ask a question.....do you want creme cheese or butter with that Obama toast?????

LOL, you wish Kefa. Can't wait until Barack becomes President, and your head explodes.

Actually, I can wait. The more you build your anti-hopes up, the better it will be when your worse nightmare becomes reality:

A liberal black man is President!

Also, who puts cream cheese on toast?!

This analogy makes no sense!

What is Obama Toast?

mcdonald928, couldn't have said it better myself.

Kefa, as for your dried out moldy piece of toast, stick a fork in it. She has no chance to win pledge delegates, popular vote, and maybe even SUPER delegates. Scrap off the fuzz and keep eating it, because I sure don't want a piece of it. Toast left over from the 90's should just be thrown out with the trash.

MSNBC was saying last night while Obama has narrowed the SD lead to around 30, Obama actually leads Hillary among elected super delegates while Hillary leads among unelected party insider super delegates.

So, the only area in which she is beating Obama is in unelected party insiders.

Now there is something to be proud of.

>What is Obama Toast?

Pumpernickel???

Ooops.

More like swirled Rye.

Definitely a good marble rye. mmm...mmmmmmm

Strange poll. Like others, I wasn't aware that Clinton lead Obama by only 6% last month in Pennsylvania. How did that one slip through the cracks?

In any case, I don't see how anyone can spin a doubling of PA support for Clinton in three weeks as good news for Obama. Worse still, the poll, which is now at the Quinnipiac University website, shows a widening gap between PA black and white voters.

Obama's big speech on race relations may be a reaction to polls like this one moving in the wrong direction.

Here is the poll:

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1327.xml?ReleaseID=1158

The speech was intelligent, inspirational and a challenge for all Americans to move beyond old biases. My dad was a racist and I didn't disown him. He softened a little before he died at 85, but not a whole lot.

It took courage and leadership for Sen. Obama to give that honest speech. He is showing the kind of leadership we need. Obama '08!

Also, how many of those PA people are Rush lovers who won't vote for Hillary in Nov?

OK you people-I have tried to be polite, but now it is time to tell everybody TO GROW UP!!

Forget about the campaign strategizing by both sides that can lead to the petty discourse this blog is filled with. Do I like it? No! But this is the nature of the beast and it why Obama often downplays the tripe.

Go back first and foremost to your own clarity!
Why do we lean toward the left, or as in my case very far to the left?!

Because we believe in the great credos of our Declaration of Independence.

Because we believe that we are all brothers and sisters, regardless of race or ethnic background.

Because we really want peace, racial and cultural harmony and decent lifestyles for every American.

Because we want an economic system that is fair for the little guys-us- the individuals, and not just the corporate conglomerates.

Because we do not want our country to assert its imperialist will around the world, but rather, to forward the cause of human rights whenever and wherever we leave our national footprint.

Because we do not support this murderous and illegal Iraqi War.

Because we do not our military to widen this conflict by attacking Iran.

Because we want a Supreme Court that recognizes they are the last and often, the only place where the minority voice can be protected from being trampled by the majority voice.

We want change! We want to throw these neocon fanatics out of power..

WE HAVE TO ELECT A DEMOCRAT IN 2009. I am a passionate Obama supporter. I am so into Human Rights and Civil Rights that I switched from a very successful building career to become an attorney on the downward side of middle age. I have put my money where my mouth is!

I fervently hope Obama wins the nomination. BUT if Hillary wins instead, I will work with all my heart, mind and body to see that she gets elected in November.

WE CANNOT LET McCAIN WITH THIS PRESIDENCY OR WE WILL LOOSE OUR COUNTRY AND MAY NOT LIVE LONG ENOUGH TO EVEN HAVE A LEGITIMATE OPPORTUNITY TO GET IT BACK IN OUR LIFETIMES!

THINK LIFETIME APPOINTMENTS TO THE US SUPREME COURT!!

Thank You. I hope many people read this blog and takes it to heart.

David Wilbur, Esq.

I've been saying to Obama supporters for some time now that blaming Hillary wasn't going to solve the problem. Her alleged attacks were mild compared to what to expect from the Republiscum. This Wright issue is an example. It's time to abandom the Blame Hillary First approach to campaign troubles. Again, you won't have Hillary to kick around after the primaries, but you will still have the attacks.

Please practice what Obama preaches ...

Why is this poll a bold headline? And why is the movement in this poll over a month newsworthy, when there are plenty of other polls out there? Why isn't it reported that the full history of the poll is:
Feb 14: 52-36
Feb 27: 49-43
March 10-16: 53-41

The obsession with polling on this site without even the slightest clue about polling margins of error is disturbing. Over and over the TPM editors attribute causes to poll movements that can just as easily be attributed to random error. Quinnipiac poll moved 6% between Feb 27 and march 16. Take 2.7% from Obama and add to Clinton and voila!

Is there a single TPM editor who has the courage to take responsibility for their own ignorance? A single one?

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The test to see who's right, Obama or Wright, about the American zeitgeist, will be against this baseline in PA. Will Clinton's lead increase even further as a result of today's speech, or will it decrease?

My bet is that Wright is right - but of course I'd love to be shown wrong.

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