« Rep. Tom Reynolds (R-NY), Near-Casualty Of Foley-Gate, Is Retiring | Home | Major DNC Official: We Won't Compromise On Florida And Michigan »

Poll: Hillary Up By 16 Points In Pennsylvania

A new Franklin & Marshall College poll in Pennsylvania shows Hillary Clinton with a healthy 16-point lead for the primary. Here are the numbers, compared to their last poll from a month ago:

Clinton 51% (+7)
Obama 35% (+3)

The poll also shows that Barack Obama's favorability has taken a hit in the state, probably due in part to the Jeremiah Wright flap. His favorables among Dems stood at 47% to 25% unfavorable, compared to 57%-16% a month ago. Hillary's ratings are 65%-18%.

The poll was conducted before Obama's big speech this past Tuesday on race relations.


59 Comments

| Leave a comment

can we stick to posting polls when the fluctuations are outside the margin of error? I mean, as much as anyone else, I find it extremely important to read 1 to 2 posts a day dedicated to the fact that Hillary is up by 16 in PA. However, others might find it...a waste of time. If it is Hillary up by 23, or Hillary up by 5, or Obama up... then it is a story.

KevinQ has a smart idea. Could we also add: put the margin of error in each of these poll reports.

This one has a 5 % MoE, which suggests it is not a great poll to start with. Watching these things over time for trends is more useful than the day-to-day bouncing (especially as Kevin mentions, when lots of the movement is within MoE)....

user-pic

Right.

It's getting to be a waste of bandwidth and annoyance that the TPM pollmonkies find new ways to say "Nothing New" daily.

It's too reminiscent of the MSM great affinity for quantity over quality and need to generate endless crawls and filler to fill the news cycle. Franlky, I feel kind of insulted that ad revenue, which takes up my screen, and money donated to TPM, goes to generating fluff which then wastes my time and lowers the signal/noise ratio.

That's exactly what I hate about the MSM and why I refuse to consume it: all the crap which is insulting to the intelligence of the reader and comes across like bored/incompetent staff just phoning it in. Increasingly TPM is going in that direction.

I suspect that Obama's bigger problem is choosing Florida's Katherine Harris as his running mate.

It has become very apparent that Obama does not want FL and MI delegations to be seated under any circumstances and has been refusing to agree to the redo because of that.

Obama supporters on the net can find excuses for that but many of us cannot. And the netroots have become something of a liability to him with their aggressive tactics and their sense of entitlement and their statements to the effect that the party has to accept Obama or they will stay home.

You can't run as an aspirational candidate and then excuse disenfranchising two whole states.

It is in fact the Obama supporters who are demanding changes in the rules. They think its OK for the DNC to disqualify two states but not for superdelegates to have a vote at the convention. Well guess who many of the superdelegtes are - yes its the DNC!

The DNC does not in fact have the power to disqualify the delegations, they can only make a provisional ruling. The actual power is with the rules committee and the final power is the convention.

"It is in fact the Obama supporters who are demanding changes in the rules. They think its OK for the DNC to disqualify two states but not for superdelegates to have a vote at the convention. Well guess who many of the superdelegtes are - yes its the DNC!"

Uh, I have no problem with Superdelegates going for Obama in droves.

http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/03/17/superdelegates-a-shift-toward-obama/

Do you?

"Obama supporters on the net can find excuses for that but many of us cannot. And the netroots have become something of a liability to him with their aggressive tactics and their sense of entitlement and their statements to the effect that the party has to accept Obama or they will stay home"

I agree with your point of view. Many in the net are too young or too inexperienced to realize the explosive nature of showing thumbs down to michigan and florida. if there is no revote, you can just paint these 2 states red. in this primary season, when 48 of the 50 states are voting in the primary , those democratic voters in those 2 states are NOT going to forget they were not given the opportunity to be part of this experience! specially now that obama camp is trying to find all kinds of excuses to block the revote, it is going to come back hard to bite them. one might argue florida will go red anyways, but it always remain sufficiently close to use up valuable GOP resources in the sunshine state. And michigan .. well, if you are losing that state you can very well kiss blue presidency goodbye!

On the flip side, how do you think Obama supporters will feel if Hillary is nominated?

Riots in the street! (see, I can predict the future, too)

Hey chickface~ you do not appear to get it! The Obomb is fucking up the REAL election big time by being a big baby and not letting two of the biggest states have a god damn vote because he has to screw with shit to win ..... GET IT! .... and still the spoiled brat idea if we don't win we will stay home and let the right wing win another one .... GREAT! THANKS!

user-pic

BonoX,

What are you talking about?? You say:

"Many in the net are too young or too inexperienced to realize the explosive nature of showing thumbs down to michigan and florida."

It wasn't the young and inexperience who decided "showing thumbs down to" Michigan and Florida. Hillary, with her maturity and experience, is among those who agreed to "showing thumbs down to" Michigan and Florida.

And... even if you don't like it, ALL have the right to vote according to the rules; ALL the votes casted according to the rules have the same weight: Including the votes of the young and inexperienced.

I've given up.

This contest will not be decided by polls, Obama has won, and if it takes until the convention before anyone accepts that, so be it.

keep telling yourself that.


you'll be disappointed to see the supers shifting back to hillary, along with the national momentum in general, now that obama has dug himself a hole he can't get out of. he's toast. that speech was the biggest mistake of his life.

when hillary gets the nom, you can vote independent, not vote, move to canada, etc., blah blah take your ball and run home, blah. don't care.

Canada is actually looking pretty nice.

I hear with global warming, it will be an agricultural bread basket.

user-pic

The ordinary voters don't know and don't care about the DNC. What they care about is did they get to vote. The rest is spin.

If Clinton is nominated and no revote has been held she will be in a better position to take Michigan than would Obama simply because she left her name on the ballot.

The real story is that Hillary is stuck at 51% with the effort and time they have put in PA and inspite of the hit Obama has taken this week.

If you really think Obama will get less than 45% of the vote in PA. Think again.

user-pic

You are probably right. It will be another 55/45 primary. No material change in the delegate math and just more of the same. We will be stuck in this neverending primary until June unless the supers step in. It's like groundhog day.

user-pic

ex clinton. I think Obama will get 42%. Thinking again. Yep. Still think he will get less than 45%.

Then Hillary will need to get 56% to reach the "money zone" of a 14 point win.

We will see, Ombudsman, we will see. Long time until April 22. It is game on in Pennsylvania.

user-pic

Didn't we just have a PPP poll showing Clinton up in PA by 26 points a week ago?

Her lead is shrinking, and more importantly, there's a 14% undecided vote, apparently. That's huge in a state where she supposedly has a lock.

Exactly. Obama just needs to work in Pennsylvania more.

Obama should drop out now.

He can run in 2012 on withdrawing from Iraq, health care, and renegotiating trade agreements.

user-pic

16 points is not the margin Senator Clinton needs. She needs a 20 point lead in every remaining state and Michigan and Florida to tie in pledged delegates. She needs 26 points everywhere if Michigan and Florida are off the table.

Hillary is like Jake La Motta in Raging Bull.
"You couldn't knock me down Barack, you couldn't knowk me down" It's amazing that polls don't matter unless your candidate is up. HRC is the real deal.

We're well aware of that, dorker. He, too, had to cheat to become champion.

See this and weep, obamabots:

New poll out from Rasmussen.

Clinton: 55, Obama: 27, Undecided: 18

Clinton viewed favorably by 72%, Obama 53%

More at: http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_c ontent/politics/election_20082/2008_pres idential_election/west_virginia/west_vir ginia_democratic_presidential_primary


Someone at MyDD just looked at Rasmussenreports state tracking polls its sad.Obama is now behind McCain in NJ,Penn.,OH.,Mich,Mo.all the Southwest with Colorado going for McCain and they just took NH of going Dem. to leaning with Obama the nominee Oh yea add Maine and Virginia all the southern states to that list for McCain with Obama at the helm it is now looking like a landslide for McCain.

Disclaimer: This is most plagerized from MyDD to make Obamabots' lives here miserable. LOL!!!

Any idea where they stand in MA now? I was shocked to see McCain beating Obama in MA a while back. I wonder if that race is going to be a referendum on Patrick, Kerry and Kennedy. That could be very bad news.

Aimey - Looks like you could use a tinyurl. Love Rasmussen though. Just look at the lineup of thoughtful and balanced pundits they cite on the Obama speech.

Many pundits have already weighed in: Larry Sabato looks at The Crapshoot of Presidential Politics, Froma Harrop considers Divides Obama Doesn't Bridge, Dick Morris says Pastor Wright: This Too Shall Pass, Susan Estrich offers her thoughts on The Speech, Michelle Malkin Says Goodbye to the Glowbama Mystique, and Robert Novak looked at the Democratic Racial Divide.

If you (and Senator Clinton) really want to cast your lot with Michelle Malkin and Bob Novak . . . well I'm sure that won't come back to bite you in the butt.

I'd like to see the next poll compared to this one, post-obama race speech. Probably all within the margin of error though.

user-pic

A 16 point lead is okay. Obama needs to get on the grown in PA. Some good old fashion retail politics. Even if they don't vote for him, they know who he is for the general.

There ain't no general for him. He has a snowball change of winning PA if he were to win nomination. Bye-bye, Obama. Go back to your church! Next time your pastor is giving a sermon, keep your rabbit ears open. Don't fall asleep!

"rabbit ears" ?

Have you not found his ears are lovely and as big as rabbit ears?

No worries Aimey. Obama knew he wasn't getting the big ear vote.

"I think there will be people who don't vote for me because of race; there will be people who don't vote for me because of ideology; there will be people who don't vote for me because I got big ears," Mr. Obama said. "But you know, what I'm confident about is the overwhelming majority of voters in Pennsylvania and across the country are looking for someone that will deal with the real problems that we face as a country."

Thanks for posting the change from the last poll. (I'd prefer the exact date of the poll, but beggars can't be choosers.) What I can't figure is how Obama's favorables drop 10 points and he still gains 3 points. Did F&M start pushing undecideds?

While this poll isn't great news, we Obamabots can take solace from the penultimate paragraph in the article.

The silver lining to Obama's otherwise bleak outlook in Pennsylvania could be that Clinton, even if her lead holds up, is not likely to significantly erode Obama's lead in pledged delegates because of the complex formula Democrats use to award them, Madonna said.

hillary is doing great! go hillary!

keep telling yourself that ;)

i will! thanks :)

Obama never expected to win PA and the primary is still weeks away. He does need to do lots and lots of retail politics so people can ask him questions (ie small scale town halls not big rallies). As others have said, even though they might not vote for him now, they will know him better for the general.

I have to hope that despite Hillary's and the right wing's efforts to smear Obama and appeal to the worst in Americans, that collectively we will rise above this.


There has been recent posts about the sudden increase in the "angry" and mean-spirited pro-Hillary supporters here and on other websites.
In doing my own review of multiple sites,etc. - I agree with this.

Not sure if this is a concentrated effort, or who is REALLY behind it - but, to those who read and share opinions about your canidate (whoever it is ) on this site and others, just be aware there are some sad individuals out there whos only purpose is to demean and divide. These warped people are only hoping to cause disruption and resentment. PLEASE dont allow yourself to be "baited" into that arena. Call them out,(so others can know their intent) and move on....... There is A LOT of wonderful insight and ideas shared on this site (from all sides), and I hope THAT is the type of SUBSTANCE that elects our next president.

wow, and nothing about the months and months of anti-hillary speech around here? strange...i guess it's not okay when it's the other way around.

Here, Here!
AimeyMay is especially mean today.

Let's wait for the polling AFTER Tuesday's speech. I read a piece by Dan Balz of WaPo about how the speech was indeed historic. Professors are using it in their various classes for discussion, YouTube hits at over 1.6 mil, the text of the speech emailed extensively, etc. Whether Obama wins or not, this speech will be remembered. Obama has shown real leadership here.

SO...I think after this percolates a bit, we'll see a jump in the polls.

p.s. Perhaps the headline of this article could have a sub-text: (Pre-Speech)

i think the mean-spirited posts are a result of months and months of frustration over obama's supporters double-standard - meaning one can attack hillary, but anything other than praise for obama is unacceptable. as you sow, so you reap.

I really think we are at a point in this campaign where everyone needs to take a seat on the bench for a few minutes, have a drink of water, and towel off. Obama made the speech he had to make, and, yes, he's taking a hit in polling right now, which is to be expected, but I expect that to change in the next few days when the post-speech polls appear. Pennsylvania is still literally a month away, and Obama will probably close the gap, especially in the wake that much of Hillary's "experience" claims are now being shown to be rather empty with the release of White House records, as well as her support for NAFTA, which I imagine will not go over well with Pennsylvania voters. Obama is probably not going to win Pennsylvania, but he will probably close the gap to 8-10 points, and, if he does that, the game is effectively over, no matter how hard the Clinton campaign tries to spin it.

Also, McCain is getting a free pass right now, but I expect the press with start their real vetting process of him this summer, and I imagine that many voters will not like they find, and I expect Obama to regain the advantage in states where he's taking hits right now. All Obama has to do is run a commercial with a loop of McCain saying "100 years in Iraq" or one where Lieberman has to correct him. The contrast Tuesday was rather stunning between Obama and McCain with Obama looking very presidential and in complete command of a difficult moment, while McCain looked, let's face it, rather old. Plus, this election is going to be about the economy, and McCain really has nothing to offer. Let's make the Bush tax cuts permanent? That's it? 100 years in Iraq? Where's Al-Queda? Game over. Obama wins.

McCain is indeed having a breath of fresh air right now--not to mention the press he's getting for his recent Middle East excursion...and even Hillary--who constantly insinuates that the media is against her--is driving on a relatively smooth terrain.

I agree with Grinder. I'm interested in what the polls will show in the next few days after Obama's speech has sunk in with the American people. Some (obviously) will be turned off by the whole Wright controversy, but others will be drawn to the speech Obama gave on March 18th.

And considering how ridiculous this primary season has been so far, I'm positive the media will find another juicy story for the public to enjoy relatively soon. The focus is on Obama now, but I personally believe the lens will shift on someone else real, real quick.

Hoping for a mass exodus of super delegates from the Obama camp is all HRC supporters have left. There is nothing else left for them. It's the longest of mathematical long shots, yet they hang on and continue to drag Obama through the mud on their way down.

Hillary's hanging off the edge of the building and she's holding onto Obama's shirt, and she's ripping it! Hillary, let go of Obama's shirt!

Hey folks this is long race here and we still have a good ways to go. The Queen ain't no ways tired. She is ready to go 12 rounds is Obama? He wanted her to quit early. No way she said, I ain't no ways tired. Just let me win, he said. Nope, I'm just getting started. We are gonna go right to the convention and if that don't get it maybe longer. I read riots in prior posts..lololol yeah I can see it now. Who gives a shit if you punk asses riot. You don't riot or even protest over a war like we did how you gonna riot over a vote.lololololol. Funniest shit I ever read. Obama has never gone the full fight he will have to this time and the Queen is gonna knock his ass out. You may go back to your Kool-Aid now.

Who the hell is the Queen?

user-pic

To the Hillary trolls .....
get real --- its now clear that the clinton high rollers want to buy her an election in michigan and florida -- that is democracy? what banana republic are you from?

I think it's time to hit hard against the Clinton SPIN that Obama is somehow responsible for MI and Fl being "disenfranchised."

The FACT is that DNC cut those states out of the primary a long time ago and all the candidates supported it.

Let's make sure the FACT is not overtaken by the SPIN.

user-pic

Yes, Sara. I've been saying that for a while and it is important to have our voices heard.

Somehow there is a bunch out there sending over and over the false message that Obama is responsible for this mess; and has to bend over backwards to fix it.

If Hillary hadn't agreed to the DNC rules to later change her mind, we wouldn't be in this mess.

If Hillary had continued to accept and respect the rules and had continued to sent that message, instead of riling voters up, we wouldn't be in this mess.

Hillary wants Florida and Michigan to have a say in the election Barack Doesn't. Hillary has offered revote in Michigan and Obama has tried to obstruct that vote yet again.

Thats pretty clear to me.


So if the DNC seats the Florida and Michigan delegates AS IS I think the Obama folks better not cry too hard...

Hillary wants Florida and Michigan to have a say in the election Barack Doesn't. Hillary has offered revote in Michigan and Obama has tried to obstruct that vote yet again.

Thats pretty clear to me.


So if the DNC seats the Florida and Michigan delegates AS IS I think the Obama folks better not cry too hard...

It's sad to see many of these poss. Lots of finger-pointing, crowing, and spitting from both sides. Be ashamed of yourselves.


Once this party realizes that these two ARE the ticket, then it can move on to trying to win this election. Enough of this nomination crap; one cannot win without the other. Regular people have about had it with both of them and it's because Democrats bring the drama to the table much better than Republicans. They're too busy trying to fix their wars by starting new ones (a' la McCain).

Obama/Clinton, Clinton/Obama, whatever. One without the other, Democrats will lose '08. Should that happen, I will adhere to Hagel's advice of a true, Independent, new party being formed in America that will get elected (Obama/Hagel 2012?). Apparently, if the Constitution is outdated and needs 'Amendments', then our selection of parties should change as well.

Clinton on the ticket is toxic in November. Period. The ease with which HRC supporters cut-and-paste right-wing talking points would be terrifying were it not so, um, ironic. I can't wait for Malkin's endorsement of Clinton in the General. Right.

This may be weird for a political junkie to say, but our political media has always been fixated on the "horse race" nature of political campaigns. Of course, it's fun, but we cannot say emphatically in March how Ohio is going to vote in November, just because one candidate hits a pothole in the road for a few days and suddenly we're all Chicken Littles saying the sky is falling and John McCain is the next president. At this point in 1992 and even later in that spring, Bill Clinton was actually running third in polls behind GHWB and Ross Perot (remember him?) but then won comfortably in November. As I said earlier, yes McCain has gotten a bump this week, because of Obama's flat tire over Rev. Wright's comments. But he has fixed that tire in rather dramatic and even profound fashion this week, and I expect him to fully recover and be an even better candidate because of it. This election is going to be about the economy, and the Republicans, especially John McCain, have absolutely NO ideas to bring to table to improve things, other than their mantra of tax cuts. I know McCain has appeal, and I'm not minimizing that at all, but an election based on economic issues is not one he can win, and he knows it. And come the fall campaign, voters will know it as well.

Obamabots? This is getting rediculous. Why must Clinton supports reduce themselves to such childish games as name calling? The fact that you refer to Obama's supporters as "Obamabots" doesn't help your candidate's case -- all it does is increase the level of animosity between Clinton supports and Obama supporters. Don't get me wrong -- I would equally critical of an Obama supporter stooping to such tactics. Can we please all grow up people -- let's stick to logic, reason, and the issues at hand.

So is the Florida debacle being heard in the court system?

Look, nobody wants anyone to be disenfranchised, but at the expense of a fair revote- I don't think so. If it is not going to be a fair re-vote then the it is tainted, unworthy, unfounded etc.

This is a lesson for the DNC, perhaps change primary laws/rules/regulations for the future, but you can't just approve a revote without analysis etc. and making sure it is done fairly and democratically because this whole debacle is turning the tables on what was already decided, agreed upon. I wish the Democratic Party was a shining example of justice, truth, etc. But politics are politics, mistakes were made, people didn't think too far ahead. Those leaders in FL and MI who did this should be asked to resign (who decided to move up primary).I wouldn't be surprised if it was planned to happen like this.

an unfair revote cancels out the whole disenfranchisement argument. you cannot have one without the other, that is why it is a debacle. (in MI).

For MI, do a split, 50-50. I think that would be fair, no? Is Florida's a closed primary like MI?

Leave a comment

Advertise Liberally
Share
Close Social Web Email

"To" Email Address

Your Name

Your Email Address