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Rasmussen: Hillary Increases Her Lead In Ohio
A new Rasmussen poll of Ohio shows Hillary Clinton potentially pulling away in the Democratic primary, after the race had been much closer just a few days ago. Here are the numbers, compared to the poll released on Friday:
Clinton 50% (+3)
Obama 44% (-1)
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Ground game.
March 3, 2008 10:01 AM | Reply | Permalink
a 6% lead in Ohio, a state she has to win by about 20 points to even stay in this race (assuming she can win Texas by 20 points as well) is a story? That's pulling ahead?
Hey, if she is going to lose Texas, or even come close to a tie in Texas, she needs to win Ohio by, oh, 40 points to maintain ANY chance of ever turning this thing around, and even that probably won't work. So who gives a shit about these polls? She is screwed, period.
March 3, 2008 10:01 AM | Reply | Permalink
Anyone obsessed with the polling, I strongly urge you to check out ruralvotes.com/thefield
You'll see that Cleveland -- which should be good for Obama -- will come in very late, delaying any calls for Clinton even if she has a solid lead through most of the night.
Also, the blogger on the field has been extraordinarily accurate with his delegate count predicts, and he's made them for Ohio.
March 3, 2008 10:04 AM | Reply | Permalink
So Obama is up 2 % in a Zogby poll yesterday and down by 6 % in a Rasmussen today. Reading my tea leaves (Assam blend) is probably more accurate than all that polling.
March 3, 2008 10:05 AM | Reply | Permalink
I still predict a close race tomorrow in Ohio despite the recent Rasmussen poll. On the eve of the Wisconsin primary, Rasmussen had Obama leading in the state by only 4 points, the actual result was a 16 points win for Obama.
March 3, 2008 10:07 AM | Reply | Permalink
I still predict a close race tomorrow in Ohio despite the recent Rasmussen poll. On the eve of the Wisconsin primary, Rasmussen had Obama leading in the state by only 4 points, the actual result was a 16 points win for Obama.
March 3, 2008 10:07 AM | Reply | Permalink
The "Obama-loving" media is desperately carrying that kitchen sink to help Clinton extend this ratings-grabbing race for another six weeks. I think it's evident that this will be a split decision and that Clinton will continue to stump for McCain through the rest of spring.
March 3, 2008 10:22 AM | Reply | Permalink
Only one "poll" matters...
March 3, 2008 10:51 AM | Reply | Permalink
Even more interesting are the sideline poll numbers for the GE in New Jersey:
NJ-Pres
Mar 2 Rasmussen - McCain (R) 45%, Obama (D) 43%
NJ-Pres
Mar 2 Rasmussen - Clinton (D) 50%, McCain (R) 39%
Clinton holds on to the Big Blue States, Obama loses them to McCain. Of course the Repubs know this. Only an opponent running with the McGovern-proven Red State Strategy can ensure they take the GE this year of Republican caused war and recession. So it's no wonder they are cross-voting on mass to try to make Obama the nominee:
http://www.thecityedition.com/Pages/Archive/Winter08/2008Election.html
Clinton for 8 then Obama for 8, that's the only way to roll this time around. Sorry. If you don't "get it" you might need deprogramming (try taylormarsh.com, talkleft.com, theleftcoaster.com, and be creative).
March 3, 2008 11:06 AM | Reply | Permalink
Fumiste, you're very selectively picking your polls. You haven't mentioned that he's far more competitive than Clinton in Colorado, Minnesota, and New Hampshire amid a host of other states. As several polls have consistently shown, Obama is simply more electable then Clinton. New Jersey has a habit of flirting with Republicans, sucking in their money and resources, and then breaking their hearts come November. The advantage that Obama brings to the table with both his appeal and his resources is that he can turn many states that were formally considered solidly red into potential swing states that McCain will be forced to defend with fewer resources. I don't know about you, but I think this is a good thing, both for the short term goal of electing a Democratic President, and the longer term goal of electing a solidly progressive majority.
March 3, 2008 11:30 AM | Reply | Permalink
I think it would be dangerous as an Obama supporter to dismiss this one out of hand. Rasmussen has been off this primary season, but so have all of them. What this does show is late breaking movement toward Clinton. She's kept true to her word, and with the help of the Clinton-hating press has thrown the entire kitchen sink at Obama this past week. Whether it's 3 A.M. phone calls, pictures of Barack in "Muslim garb", unnamed sources leaking alleged conversations with the Canadian government that may or may not have occurred in both camps, questioning Barack's commitment to "rejecting" anti-Semitic remarks, or just plain almost-but-not-quite, rejecting the premise behind insinuations that Obama is somehow secretly a Muslim.
This thing has gotten slimy, but in her mind she had nowhere to go but up, and the Clinton's have never had a problem with slimy. She's managed to dominate the news cycle over the past week with negative Obama press, and due to her constant protests about how "unfair" the press has been to her and her campaign, she's come off largely unscathed for her efforts. It's a neat trick if you can pull it, and in a lot of other states, it wouldn't pay off. But in state like Ohio, where she possessed until very recently the "trusted" brand name, she's gone all out to reel back in those voters that started looking elsewhere.
I have no idea if this is what the Rasmussen poll is picking up on or if it's just an outlier from a poorly preforming polling unit, but it would be silly to dismiss it completely. If you're an Obama supporter, and you have the ability to volunteer some time, I'm sure they could use some phone bankers over the next 12 to 24 hours.
March 3, 2008 11:18 AM | Reply | Permalink