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Poll: Bitterness Of Pennsylvania Primary Could Spell Trouble For Dems In November

A new Rasmussen poll of Pennsylvania shows that the sheer bitterness of the Democratic race could spell trouble for the party down the road in this key big swing state.

The poll shows that the divisive Democratic primary is dragging down the prospects for party unity, at least for now: Only 55% of Clinton supporters say they are even just somewhat likely to back Obama if he's the nominee, and the same goes for only 55% of Obama supporters if Hillary is the nominee.

Here are the horse-race numbers compared to the previous poll from about two weeks ago:

Clinton 49% (-2)
Obama 39% (+1)

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The sooner we have a nominee, the sooner the bitterness will fade, the sooner that nominee can reach out to the others' supporters, and the sooner that we can go into the fall united.

I don't really buy this. I think a lot of partisans want to up the stakes so that pressure is brought to bear on the super-delegates.

"Ooh, look! If we don't end this soon for XXXXX, all hell will break loose!"

Come November, no Democrat will stay home and allow John McCain to have a chance to further ruin our country.

I am not so sanguine.

If Hillary takes it to the convention and gets nominated despite being behind in pledged delegates and the popular vote, I believe a lot of Obama supporters will stay home or vote for McCain. The perception will be that she stole it. Hillary and her supporters have a rather convenient case of amnesia about how upsetting election theft is to Democrats (and would be to them if the situation were reversed) after 2000 and 2004.

The only possible way that doesn't happen, is, as someone (Nagourny? Ambinder?) noted, Obama is caught with a second family in Idaho or a bunch of corpses in the crawlspace of his housse.

And, unfortunately, I am afraid that the increasingly unhinged thinking that's been incubated at Taylormarsh.com, MyDD.com and Hillaryis4.org is has spread into her campaign and is infecting her rank and file supporters. I am increasingly worried that many of them have so bought into their own propaganda that they really do think that he's an empty-headed affirmative action fraud who's taken millions in bribes from Tony Rezko and is a member of a dangerous racist cult that drinks the blood of white babies.

Yes, he is!

Winning in pledged delegates: Obama
Winning in total delegates: Obama
Winning in total contests: Obama
Winning in popular vote: Obama
Highest total fundraising: Obama

Actually, they might do something like that. I think there are Democrats who don't have anything to lose personally if McCain is elected. All they would have to do to tip to McCain would be to define their self interst more narrowly than usual and vote it.

billy, you are very right. for many moderate and conservative democrats mc cain is an easy sell. his amnesty position and iraq is the problem and with iraq the predominantly democratic senate and congress will tie his hands there. as far as amnesty...the american public will prevent that fiascoo from happening. can we live with mc cain over obama. you bet we can.

Michelle and Others:

There is no doubt that John McCain will place a right wing justice on the Supreme Court for at two reasons. First, he is pro-life, and second read into details of his endorsements from the Christian Right and you will find that that is the price he promises to pay in order to get their support.

Then please also google Rowe v. Wade and Scalia together and you will read how Scalia has said on a number of occasions that he is ready to overturn Rowe given the opportunity. (He is not alone on this by the way.) Secondly google “unitary executive” and read enough to get the gist of what it means. I will give you a primer: the President as both Commander in Chief and Chief Executive has the power to make decisions regardless of whether they are unconstitutional or against the law. What this means in law terms is that the office of the President will be above the law. When the Supreme Court makes such a holding it becomes the supreme law of the land. The only way it can be reversed is either for a changed Supreme Court to strike it down, or a constitutional amendment. End result: the President will be permanently above the law. Th ramifications of this are manifold, but to name one, for example this illegal wire tapping issue will simply be supported on the basis of the unitary executive and the were not even be an investigation! Any one who thinks that this congress is lame (which I agree with) will wish that we could have back the days of this lame congress, because there will no longer be a balance of power. It will be the first dispositive step toward a dictatorship that our government will have taken since the founding fathers created the constitution.

So anyone who thinks that it will be ok to vote for McCain if your candidate looses nomination fight (even if it is actually stolen) needs to think this through very carefully. The President will have virtually unlimited power if this should happen. That magic 5th Vote on the US Supreme Court which has had so many people hyper-concerned, including myself, is sure to happen during the next Presidency. To wit, Justice Stevens will be 89 in 2008! Will I be damn angry if either candidate steals the nomination- you are damn right I will be. But voting for McCain would be like “cutting off my nose to spite my face” as the saying goes.

Please consider this carefully.


billy, you are very right. for many moderate and conservative democrats mc cain is an easy sell. his amnesty position and iraq is the problem and with iraq the predominantly democratic senate and congress will tie his hands there. as far as amnesty...the american public will prevent that fiascoo from happening. can we live with mc cain over obama. you bet we can.

Because the Democratic House and Senate have been sooo effective so far in influencing Iraq policy. Not to mention that a McCain presidency probably means a Supreme Court that leans farther right than we've seen since the pre-New Deal days.

I will tell you one thing - at this point in the race, I'd be so revolted by pulling the lever for Hillary Clinton that I would be physically ill after doing so. But dammit, I would do it, because the future of this country is that important.

So get your hate on and vote for John Bush McSame this fall if you must. Maybe you'll realize you were behaving like a petulant child a few months later when the bombs start to drop on Iran.

Well said. Either democrat is still better than McCain.

I must admit as mad as I am about all the Clinton bashing from the Media and Obama supporters, I would have to think of voting for Obama. However he thought of him having Rev Wright over to stay in the Lincoln bedroom really turns my stomach.

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However he thought of him having Rev Wright over to stay in the Lincoln bedroom really turns my stomach.

Well, he could probably stay there either way. It's just that Obama would let him stay for free.

Haha.. I was thinking the same thing!

Within 10 points. Not bad with weeks to go.

At least mildly remarkable, actually. In the two-week period more or less defined by the controversy that supposedly threatened the very existence of Obama's campaign, he actually ended up gaining three points on his opponent, in a state cited as just the sort of place the Wright issue was likely to hurt him badly.

Attention, superdelegates, are you reading this?

What does this mean: "Only 55% of Clinton supporters say they are even just somewhat likely to back Obama if he's the nominee, and the same goes for only 55% of Obama supporters if Hillary is the nominee."

This is bull! "they are even just somewhat likely to back"

What a shock. Who could ever possibly have guessed this. And I'm sure it's only PA. No voters in other states feel the same way.

(Isn't this primary fun? We're so energized, and in the news, and organized. We're just unbeatable!)

So, all you bloggers who've been saying they don't think a long race necessarily hurt us in the fall? Whatcha think now?

A few weeks ago I was one of those folks saying that a long race was not necessarily a bad thing, but I am quickly coming around to the opposite point of view. It is not even the above poll, really, that has lead me to this conclusion. It is more the impression I get from listening to the call-in talk shows on my local NPR affiliate. If NPR listeners are getting bitter and retaliatory towards the other side, then you have to figure that the schism is reaching critical proportions. Better to end it soon so that the process of healing has as long as possible to work before November.

Public Policy Polling has Obama up 21% in North Carolina. Is that right?

These are the same people who had him only 1 pt ahead of her in NC last week. PPP has had a rather less than impressive track record so far this year, so I am not sure that I am any more impressed by this result than I was by last weeks, although of course, I would like this one to be true. Somehow, however, I am not really inclined to set much store by it.

It should help, however, to wipe that insufferably smirk off of the faces of certain Clinton supporters around here.

This poll is meaningless. Of course partisans in the middle of a heated battle are not going to say, you know the other side is just as pleasing to me. People are focused on trying to have their person win, so they are not in a frame of mind to suspend their current combative state of mind.

Ask the question in Mid October, and then you will see an entirely different response.

Despite his lies about wanting to be a Uniter,Barack Obama and his advisers have conducted a divisive "full assault" on Hillary's character. While talking a lot about the politics of hope, change and unity, Sen. Obama and his campaign have been conducting a relentless and singularly personal assault on Hillary's character. They have blanketed big states with false negative mailers and radio ads and have described Hillary and her campaign as "disingenuous," "divisive," "untruthful," "dishonest," "polarizing," "calculating," "saying whatever it takes to win," "attempting to deceive the American people," "one of the most secretive in America," “deliberately misleading,” “literally willing to do anything to win,” and “playing politics with war."
This "full assault" on Hillary's integrity and character has reached a new peak since Hillary's victories on March 4th. One of Sen. Obama's top surrogates equated President Clinton with Joe McCarthy; another called Hillary a "monster;" and his campaign manager held an angry conference call (audio) claiming that Hillary is "deeply flawed" and has "character issues." That's neither unifying nor hopeful. If Sen. Obama really is the prohibitive favorite some say he is, these negative attacks make absolutely no sense. Why would a frontrunner seek to attack and divide? If Sen. Obama can't unify Democrats in a primary, how can he unify Americans in a general election? Answer he can't. Obama should drop out immediatly and apologise to the Nation.

"disingenuous," "divisive," "untruthful," "dishonest," "polarizing," "calculating," "saying whatever it takes to win," "attempting to deceive the American people," "one of the most secretive in America," “deliberately misleading,” “literally willing to do anything to win,” and “playing politics with war."

Yup! Pretty much!

I smell a troll.
In any case, a quick response. McCarthyism was below the belt. Bill Clinton's comments weren't exactly innocent either, though. As for the monster thing, the woman who said that got fired immediately. As for criticisms like "deeply flawed," come on, Clinton's already hit him with five times that. He's entitled to punch back a little bit. The end of your statement can easily be reversed back to Clinton, but I won't do it, since such demands are ludicrous to both sides. Contented?

Obama has run the most divisive campaign in History and depite having the press and blogs in his pocket he has been unable to close the deal. As the Obama campaign resembles Bushies in there negativity I would say you are the troll.

Obama has run the most divisive campaign in History and depite having the press and blogs in his pocket he has been unable to close the deal. As the Obama campaign resembles Bushies in there negativity I would say you are the troll.

Hillary! DROP OUT NOW YOU SELFISH PIECE OF SHIT!!

wwjb....is your response idicative of how you would like voters to view your preferred candidate?

Excellent comment to show the typical Obama talking points. Drop out because you are ....!
Nice language you are probably the most well spoken Obama supporter out there.

From the same poll:

McCain is viewed favorably by 55% of voters nationwide and unfavorably by 42%.

Obama’s reviews are 46% favorable and 52% unfavorable.

For Clinton, those numbers are 45% favorable, 52% unfavorable

What a stupid poll. Ask people, before they've voted, if the person they REALLY want to win loses, would they back the other.

What do you THINK they are going to say?

I agree with Unabogie. This is being hyped, probably in part because the media feed on conflict to boost ratings. Remember, Bill Clinton didn't win the nomination for his first term until June, and he won the the presidency.

Remember that Ross Perot was splitting the Republican vote.

Despite his lies about wanting to be a Uniter,Barack Obama and his advisers have conducted a divisive "full assault" on Hillary's character.
Thanks for giving me my belly laugh for the day. Now, go tell her to stop "assaulting" her OWN character with her campaign of lying and smearing.

I do not recall Hillary saying she was all about Change you can believe in and that only she has the ability to build a coalition of Republicans and Independents to get the job done.
Obama says he is a different kind of candidate but his actions come right out of the Karl Rove playbook.

I think even if this goes all the way to the convention, that still leaves a few months for the Dem nominee to paint a striking contrast between themselves and McCain. Some people will still be bitter if their candidate isn't nominated but I think people will cool down when they realize how much is at stake in the election. Certainly a lot more than 55% of Clinton/Obama supporters would back the other Democratic candidate.

This is why Hillary needs to get out of the race. There is really no path to victory. Okay, there is one. That would be to completely deny the first african american candidate for president the nomination by overriding his groundswell of support with the house of lords. The fallout would be incomprehensible and could very well lead to the destruction of the democratic party. Therefore, it seems fairly obvious that she either needs to quit now or run a nice guy campaign like huckabee did while he knew it was impossible to win.

BTW, count me in as an Obama supporter that would write in Obama's name as my choice if the nomination was stolen from him by the house of lords. I won't vote republican, but I won't support the establishment either.

Some of this is so stupid.

I'm as big an Obama guy as it gets. And I could not be more disgusted with the Clinton machine.

That said, I'm used to voting for politician who disgust me, so voting for Hillary over McCain wouldn't be that different than voting for Bill over Dole, or Kerry over Bush. (Well, Bush is a bad example).

Now, if there were any viable progressive alternative to Team Clinton, I'd choose it. But there won't be. So even if Hillary steals the nomination from Obama, I'm still voting for her against McCain. And then I'm returning to my cynical hole, finally certain that politics and idealism don't mix.

On the other hand, if it is Hillary v. McCain, all my conservative friends and relatives will be so happy that my vote will do little to stop anything.

Exactly. Precisely right (in my humble opinion).

There's always Nader . . .

One thing to keep in mind is the "pass" the media gives to McCain, much like they did for Bush in 2000. HE gives them picnics. They like him. They know him too well to print they same things they will about a democrat.

Also remember, the amount of lies and distorted truths the media made about Gore, most of which many people still believe. The Daily Howler has all of it documented, if you care.

If you think the election in November will be a cakewalk, you're wrong.

If you think the democrats can't alienate an electorate that would have to hold tehir noses to vote for a member of the DLC (Hillary), you're wrong.

Or for a Obama, or for a woman, or for a person of color, or for...

this election can be lost. People may stay home.

I was pretty jazzed about Edwards. Not so much about what is left. The more they tear each other down, the more I think about how neither really represents me.

Why should I give false approval to a person who doesn't represent me? Where's the spark that gives me action?

Fear of McCain, the guy the conservatives hate? The guy that thought of being a democrat? The guy who the media loves and lavish on?

Dream on. Nothing is for sure.

The longer Hillary stays in this the more I'm convinced she's positioning herself for another attempt in 2012 as opposed to making a good faith effort to win it this year. I don't see a path to her claiming the nomination that doesn't feature a deeply divided party, and I don't think she does either. She knows Obama's the likely nominee, so a divided party this year only increases the chances she'll get another shot in 4 years.

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The Clinton's are LOSING by every critieria, with only the HOPE that Superdelegates MIGHT go against the wishes of voters and pledged Delegates. They KNOW their chances of defeating Obama are statiscally NIL. When BOTH Clintons praise the integrity of John McCain, while literally calling him a respected FRIEND of Hillary's, what are they doing that benefits the DEMOCRATIC PARTY! WHY even mention McCain? WHY though ommission IMPLY that Obama doesn't love his country? The Clinton's aren't being loyal Democrats, they are being self-serving EGOTISTS who care only about themselves at the expense of the DEMOCRATIC PARTY! They aren't just being divisive, they are deliberately being DESTRUCTIVE to the DEMORATIC PARTY'S chances of defeating John McCain! That is a FACT!

I don't think the numbers are nearly as troubling as the underlying reality.

Polarization, partisan rancor and demonizing have become our template for dealing with political differences. We literally no longer know how to react to disagreement other than to choose sides, dig in and lob mortar shells across No Man's Land - even among our own party.

Another gift that keeps on giving from RoveBush.

I think the poll is misleading in that most (but certainly not all) Democrats will come around in November regardless of who the nominee is, simply to avoid "100 Years In Iraq" McCain; but that doesn't alter the fact that this bitter primary contest is hurting the Democrats nationally.

McCain's numbers versus both Dem candidates have risen quite a bit lately, and IMO that is primarily because he's been able to sit back and look like the good guy while the Dems fight it out. This may not be permanent damage, but it is unnecessary damage. This race should have been over in February, and if Hillary's last name weren't "Clinton," it would have been.

On the other hand, perhaps we shouldn't discount the bitterness within the Democratic Party. The Carville-Richardson war of words is a good example of rifts in the party that may never be repaired. And with Clinton now pushing the racially divisive aspects of the Wright story in PA--a story McCain vowed not to pursue--even more Democrats will be alienated.

I'd say that the Clintons have lost the African-American vote for good at this point, and they're losing the good old "latte liberals" like me as well. The Clinton campaign may sneer at those voting blocs now, but they can't win a national election without them.

It is statements like this that will keep Obama from ever becoming President.

statements like what? are you commenting in the wrong story? there are no statements here, just poll results.

I would think a lot of African-Americans would be extremely upset with not only Hillary Clinton, but the Democratic party if Obama loses the nomination, despite having more elected delegates. I believe a large portion of that community will just sit such an election out under those circumstances.

But nothing short of the entire African-American community supporting the Democratic Nominee will ensure a Democratic victory in November. It would literally be suicide for the Democratic Party to award the nomination to Hillary over the votes of the people. (And its not the same in reverse, because unlike Obama, Hillary would not have an election taken away from her that she "won" - with more elected delegates).

I think every superdelegate knows that. Its why Hillary continuing on with this campaign assures only that she will have less influence in the party in the end and Bill Clinton will have lost much of his legacy. For what?

And I wonder how long the superdelegates now supporting Hillary are going to hang on for the ride? When its now obvious Obama will get the nomination in the end, which superdelegate wants to be on the USS Hillary as it sinks in the North Atlantic?

Yea, Pennslyvania will go to Hillary, but if Obama wins in North Carolina and Indiana, it will give the Superdelegates all they need to jump ship and nominate Obama. They will do it then, before the Kentucky primary (which he will likely lose).

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My ideal scenario for the Democratic Party is that the Clintons, knowing they can't defeat Obama, concede and provide their full and active support helping him and their party win the presidency. My second best scenario is, that despite the fact the Clintons know they can't defeat Obama, they continue to praise McCain, and through omission and or comission, try to damage Obama as much as they can. Next, Obama defeats the Clintons and wins the Democratic nomination for the presidency, and without the Clinton's full and active support defeats John McCain and wins the presidency. This would leave the Clintons exactly where I've come to beleive they deserve to be; on the outside looking in. Obama will forgive and forget for the sake of party unity, but never again will the Clintons be in a postion to place their personal amabitions ahead of the best interests of the Democratic Party.

Allow me to propose to you a third possibility; one far less desirable but nonetheless satisfying in certain respects: Clinton manages to damage Obama so badly that he withdraws from the race and leaves her the nomination. The nomination which he cedes to her, however, is not worth a pitcher of warm spit. Her gambit to rough up Obama leaves the democratic base so badly split that she goes down to flaming defeat, thus leaving the Clintons forever shut out of any leadership in the democratic party or elected office ever again. The downside of this is that it would mean that 1) the nation would have to endure at least 4 years of the McCain administration and 2) Bill Clinton's presently lustrous legacy would be forever tarnished among the whole political spectrum, both left and right. The upside, however, is that there would be a certain satisfaction in watching karma unfold in real time.

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"And, unfortunately, I am afraid that the increasingly unhinged thinking..."

Hey, NC Steve. Nice job parroting Michelle Malkin. We need more people calling each other mentally ill. It really raises the level of the debate. I suppose it doesn't matter, since the comment section here has become a cesspool, anyway.

Here's what reasonably minded Obama supporters (I assume there are some) need to digest.

If at the convention neither candidate clinches the nomination even after several rounds of voting, and their difference in delegates (since that is the only thing that matter in the actual nomination process) is less than the typical margin of error in polls, say 2-3%, then both side must agree that it is a statistical tie and the DNC must adopt some rules on the spot that allow the delegates to revote with no commitments or pledges.

That is the only fair way that a nominee can be selected without the latent animosity that will ensure a McCain victory.

If that fails then a coin toss really is the only sure fire way to end this thing fairly.

You think the supers are going to let this go to the convention?

Not going to happen. They are currently looking for any excuse to give it to Obama. Assuming he loses by a relatively small margin in PA (probably 15 or less does it), and wins NC and either wins or ties in Indiana, I think they will move en masse to him at that point.

They see polls like these and probably think the same thing I do - this thing needs to be wrapped up, quickly.

Except for the fact that margin of error does not apply to an election. An election is an exact count of votes between choices of those who have voted. Those who have voted are the only voices that count.

Margin of error exists because polls take a sample and apply it over a population and admit there is a possibility for some error in this. That does not apply to an election where there is a 100% representation of the population (those who voted).