Penn: Pennsylvania Will Show That Obama "Really Can't Win The General Election"

On the Clinton campaign conference call today, chief strategist Mark Penn discussed Pennsylvania, and made a rather strong statement about the significance of the state. He said the following about Hillary's expected win there...

"We believe this will again show that Hillary is ready to win and that Senator Obama really can't win the general election."

This stops about a milllionth of an inch short of an out-and-out declaration that Obama can't win a general. He seems to be saying that Obama's expected loss in Pennsylvania, and the scale of it, will show that he can't win a general election.

This is in keeping with earlier remarks by Hillary and her surrogates to the effect that he has not passed the "commander in chief test" sufficiently to win a general. Ben Smith is right to observer that this is a pretty strong thing to say. And later on the call, the Hillary people backtracked from the remark.

What this really reflects, I think, is the difficult (or perhaps impossible) balancing act the Hillary camp is trying to strike between portraying Obama as unfit for the general election to sow doubts among super-delegates while maintaining a posture of loyalty to the larger Democratic cause.


Comments (229)

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Why don't they just admit that Obama is lucky they are even letting him participate in the primary.

Also:

MAKE THESE DOUCHEBAGS GO AWAY! Jesus H.

Well, they don't want to brag.

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Has anyone else noticed how loathesome Mark Penn is? (I mean in the last 20 seconds).

It's just the logical extension of the argument that the small/red/caucus/large African-American population states don't count. Now ONLY Pennsylvania counts.

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I am so tired of this. I grew up in Pennsylvania and what Clinton and Penn won't tell you is this: Pennsylvania is old, so much of it's future has migrated to D.C. and Chicago and New York. Hillary is strongest among the elderly and Pennsylvania has one of the oldest demographics in the nation (including my mom!). I love my mother, my aunts and uncles, my neighbors, and everyone else back home, but they aren't the future and Pennsylvania isn't representative of anything other than itself.

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Exactly. Pennslyvania is a great state,full of great people. But it is one out of 50 states. And it is not the only state that gets counted in this or any other election. All the states count and all of our votes count.WE will not have it any other way! We WILL have a fair election or we will have a revolution. Take your choice . Sounds fair and reasonable to me. Or is that asking to much ?

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The other logical extension is that if your campaign is losing to the Obama campaign (that can't win the general election), then the Clinton campaign can't win the election either.

I don't why I'm invoking common sense or logic to the spewings of a campaign that lacks the same, but I thought I'd give it a try.

Little Fish says this sounds like Penn is playing with fire.

What this really reflects, I think, is the difficult (or perhaps impossible) balancing act the Hillary camp is trying to strike between portraying Obama as unfit for the general election to sow doubts among surrogates while maintaining a posture of loyalty to the larger Democratic cause.

You give him more credit than I'm willing to. Mark Penn's comments have sounded detached from actual reality since before the Iowa caucuses--starting with the hilarious rejection of the DesMoines Register poll.

Maybe he's on to something the rest of us can't see. Mostly, though, he sounds just plain goofy. Tell me again why he makes so much money for Clinton?

This is, of course, assuming no-one has seen the PA General Election polls:

SurveyUSA 2/26-28/08 632 RV McCain-40 Obama-50-

SurveyUSA 2/26-28/08 609 RV McCain-46 Clinton-47-

Mark Penn "really can't stop stuffing his fat face."

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balancing act? uh she fell off that tightrope a long long long time ago.

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Please Hillary, use this as an excuse to get rid of Penn for good!

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So if Obama is (as is likely ) the Democratic candidate , what will Mr Penn do ?

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Penn - Barack Obama winning the Presidential election only proves that America doesn't matter. Our strategy remains, as always, focused on winning Saskatchawan. Only big provinces matter

avatar What this really reflects, I think, is the difficult (or perhaps impossible) balancing act the Hillary camp is trying to strike between portraying Obama as unfit for the general election to sow doubts among surrogates while maintaining a posture of loyalty to the larger Democratic cause.

Shorter Greg Sargent: What it reflects is desperation on the part of the Clinton campaign.

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(more) attempted fratricide IS EXCELLENT NEWS!! FOR Monsters, Inc.!!!

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And everyone knows that good news for Monsters, Inc is good news for America.

I honestly wonder how much more good news can we possibly take.

idiotic...

You really should stop insulting monsters...

I've read that Godzilla, Rodan, King Kong, and Gamera are all Obama supporters...they don't want to be associated with that other campaign.

:)

Ok gregg, can you give me one example of the clintons ever "maintaining a posture of loyalty to the larger Democratic cause." Ever?

Don't hold your breath waiting.

The Clintons are loyal to the Clintons. Period.

Good freakin' point!

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Mark Penn, ugh. This guy is useless. If he's really just Clinton's message guy, someone over there needs to put him out of his misery. He's really awful at this. Didn't Gore fire him?

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This stops about a milllionth of an inch short of an out-and-out declaration that Obama can't win a general.
No it doesn't. They explicitly come out and say that Obama can't win the general. You even quote them. There was obviously intent in that message, so why distort it for them. So, let them stew in that comment, because they put it out there for you guys to dutifully report to see if that idea takes hold.

Clinton advisors now say that Obama cannot win the general. Not that Hillary can, but that Obama can't. When pressed on the why, they backtracked, but they have now put it out there. According to Hillary, for some reason, Obama can't win.

Now they need to be pressed on why, and if they offer up their Big State scenario, they need to be asked seriously and persistently, why Democrats that might vote for Hillary would not vote for Obama.

Let's get a real discussion about this one, not just press releases and whispers. My party, and my country could use a bit of disinfecting, and this is as good a time as any to start.

Thank you! I read Penn's quote and then read Sargent's tortured interpretation and literally LOLed.

Please.

These people keep pushing their firewall back, that it'll burn all the up to Denver and they'll say, "What firewall? We were trying to built a lake!". Looks more like they're trying to snow us.

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They explicitly come out and say that Obama can't win the general.

OK, I'm a pedant at heart, but, watch the grammar and syntax:

"We believe this will again show that Hillary is ready to win and that Senator Obama really can't win the general election."

We believe this will show... that Senator Obama really can't win the general election.

I.e., if this happens, we think it shows Obama can't win.

NOT "Obama can't win." Because of the built-in uncertainty of that run-of-the-mill word BELIEVE.

That's why it's "a millionth of an inch short" and not in fact "explicitly" saying it.

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That argument is missing something, if you really want to parse at that level.

He says it will show "again" that Obama cannot win the general. Which implies that it has already been shown previously that Obama cannot win the general.

In other words, Mark Penn is an idiot.

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Fair enough on "again," but it's still a conditional statement: if Obama loses here, we think it will show that Obama can't win. (Unstated but logical deduction from that premise: if Obama wins, we don't know what it shows.)

Fast-forward to the PA primary and contemplate an Obama loss. After that point, Penn might say "This proves that Obama can't win." But he hasn't quite said it yet.

Like I said, pedant.

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What Penn is really doing is trying to make a self-fulfilling prophecy. In other words, if Obama somehow can't win the general election, the only reason will be the Penn/Clinton/Ferraro race-baiting, slime-filled, McCain-backing campaign they are running in the primaries.

The Democratic Party's failure to come down hard against what Clinton is doing, in my mind, is just as scandalous as their failure to stand up to Bush since they took control of Congress. All of which is further proof why we need Obama not only in the White House, but as the leader of the Democratic Party.

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I read that a bit differently -- two separate clauses each independent of the other:

"We believe this will again show that Hillary is ready to win..." The preceding information will show Hillary (what they think) they've shown in the past.

"...Senator Obama really can't win the general election." I think that they've said what they intended in a very cut and dried manner -- explicitly, I believe.

Two statements, neither have any semblance of truth contained in them.

Now, I need to take some Advil, all this spinning has me dizzy.

I think the loyalty ship sailed some time ago. Let her run with McCain, since they are so clearly simpatico.

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You're all missing the obvious. He has to keep coming up with crap like this to keep getting paid. That's what flacks do for a living.

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Do you guys have a 24-hour feed directly into Clinton campaign HQ?

I'm getting real sick of reading every bullshit charge coming from fatfuck Penn or scumbag hitman Wolfson on this site.

Why do you think it's appropriate to broadcast every smear and distortion coming from the Clinton camp? You're in effect rewarding them for playing sleazy cheap, lying political game.

What you're doing is exactly what the lefy blogosphere has been railing about and trying to correct for the last ten years or so. I'd really like to hear you justify this stenography.

Michael, the Hillary camp repeatedly says she'll "enthusiastically" back Obama if he's the nominee. Wolfson says it in just about every conference call.

I'd call that "maintaining a posture" of loyalty to the larger Dem cause.

Ohhhh, ok, I take them at their word.

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Dude.

Greg is correct. As Hillary's protector, I can vouch for the fact that she has instructed all of us to support Barack Obama if he is nominated. He is a deeply flawed candidate and human being, but he is better than any machine.

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Whose ugly face is that on your posts?

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the gregger being rather easily spun IS EXCELLENT NEWS!! FOR HILLARY!!!

Alright, this is my favorite so far....

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But only "IF".

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Always remember that with any Clinton you have to know what their definition of "IS" is. Just quoting history. You can not trust these people.

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If you are gullible enough to accept this lip service as truth, then you would appear to be in the wrong line of work. The HRC campaign has overtly sought to paint Obama as an unelectable candidate for black people, who is inferior to John McCain on national security issues, and who lacks the fundamental experience necessary to be President.

Now, you may say she is just trying to win the nomination. But even HRC has to know that Obama is the likely nominee -- probably with a 80-90% shot of securing the nomination at present.

So, HRC is making comments that are unlikely to help HRC, but likely to diminish Obama's (and the Democrats) chances in a general election. She seems to be aiming for a run against McCain in 2012. That seems profoundly self-interested disloyal to me. Don't be so bloody credulous.

Hate to mince words, but I'd have to go with "pretext" over "posture."

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Of course, you believe them 1000%, because they have been so transparent, authentic, honest, and aboveboard. You take them at their words, as far as you know, because there is no basis in fact to believe otherwise, at this point in time, and you'd like to make that crystal clear?

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Seriously, what the hell...

Obama is currently polling better in PA in a head-to-head vs. McCain than Clinton is!!

How does Penn spin that?

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By ignoring it.

And going to buy a hamburger.

But stopping to cash his check along the way.

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taking a spare hamburger out of his pocket to eat in line at the bank

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OMG! He's Wimpie from Popeye!!

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What he means to say is that if Hillary can't win the nomination then they will do everything they can to see that Obama loses to McCain in the general. More of the scorched earth strategy that has become the hallmark of the Clinton campaign.

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Good to see you are back into your groove, Greg: posting non-stop spin from Penn, Ickes and Wolfson.

News = taking dictation of the daily talking points in conference calls with these three.

Good boy.

Ha...I thought the Clinton's phones all broke, with the lack of the 16 Clinton Daily Briefings. I admit that I was worried that Sargent was getting the DTs not being able to post horse manure all the time.

They had to lay off the conference calls for a while - they were busy talking on the Red Phone, trying to get Geraldine Ferraro out from under the bus in the ditch.

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I agree with commenters below -- don't stop posting this stuff. It's fascinating to see how lame and transparent this material is, and to witness the contempt in which HRC's team holds the press and the electorate.

The Bush years suggest that aiming very low has a pretty strong payoff . . . But I suspect at some point you actually can go broke underestimating the intelligence of the american people, or at least Democratic primary voters.

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I think the media should ask why Pennthinks this is so. I know why I think Clinton will be less electable in the general election than Obama will, but I'd like to hear what Penn thinks. I believe it is the same concern that Ferraro reaises...

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I sincerely hope that all the BOASTING of Hillary WINNING in Pennsylvania and Obama losing will awaken those voters to the bullish nature of Hillary's campaign.

She's so sure of winning she assumes the voters will support her after all that's she's done the past 3-4 wks.

This bragging may come around and hit them in the face with a resounding LOSS.

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The real story is that the Clinton camp keeps putting out ridiculous statements that damage Obama and then walk the statements back an inch or two to the point that they become barely or maybe somewhat defensible and less offensive and/or damaging to the Democrats' chances in the general, should Obama get the nomination.

Josh has recognized this in his posts. The pattern is clear, the desperation is clear, and the win-at-any-cost tactics need to be called out for what they are.

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Ummm, why does anyone care what Penn says? Greg, look back at some of Penn's earlier comments and see how much weight they carry.

Penn said in February that after Texas and Ohio Hillary would have the nomination in the bag.

Penn said way back when that after Super Tuesday Hillary would have the nomination in the bag.

So now we have Penn talking smack again, and what does it mean? It means nothing, becuase Penn is a PAID LIAR.

Ummm, why does anyone care what Penn says? Greg, look back at some of Penn's earlier comments and see how much weight they carry.

I'm going to guess two-seventy, two-seventy-five. Somewhere in there.

Come on, the spin itself is interesting, and necessary to see so when you hear it parroted on the nightly news without the frame Greg gives it, you'll know where it came from. Greg's not giving it as fact, merely showing us what they're saying. And "maintaing the posture of loyalty" is hardly a ringing endorsement of loyalty. It is a posture, nothing more. Give Greg a break. Anyway, if he didn't post the spin, what would we have to make fun of?

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I heard it said that there are a lot of colleges and universities in Penn.

If so, the youth in that state and surrounding states need to get seriously organized and get out the vote.

I'm a 54 year old white woman who STRONGLY supports Obama. I am middle-aged cynic who feels it is too late to see the changes I would like to see in my life time if younger voters do not become engergized even more than they have already demonstrated.

Young people need to see how truely important this election is for their future. They must now fight the Clinton machine with all their might to keep her from stealing this election.

To other middle-aged white women who support Obama I suggest we stop the "unwritten" rule of not speaking of politics, and start talking to our friends and family about what an Obama presidency could mean as opposed to a Clinton presidency. Hope, mending fences with allies, common sence foreign policy, judgement, and inspiration to challenge and move America forward not backward.

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"We believe this will again show that Hillary is ready to win and that Senator Obama really can't win the general election."

Um, Greg, how does this come up short of an outright declaration they think Obama can't win the GE? What do they have to say to make it an outright declaration?

"Senator Obama can't win the general election" would answer.

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Isn't that exactly what they said?

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From Kos's front page post:

At this point we know that 1) Obama will end the contest with the most pledged delegates, 2) Obama will likely end the contest with the popular vote tally, 3) Obama will end the contest with the most money and greatest fundraising potential, 4) Obama will end the contest with the most states, 5) Obama will end the contest with the best poll numbers against McCain, and 6) Obama will end the contest with the most primary state victories and caucus state victories.

Given that all those are true: What leg does the Clinton campaign really have to stand on?

"Tis but a flesh wound!"

That she won the popular vote and the Big State primaries (yes, excepting IL but don't be tedious) and it takes an awful lot of itty bitty Red caucus states to equal one Big Blue.

(And Wisconsin and Virginia and Georgia and Missouri and Minnesota and Washington and Maryland)

Yes, but those Big Blue states are going to remain Big Blue, no matter who the Democratic candidate is. So why is winning them in a Democratic primary such a crucial piece of evidence in the electability argument?

They aren't and that's the problem the Clinton's viewpoint. If Obama had won the reliably Democratic states, the Clinton's would be whining about how he's only appealing to Democrats and they're more electable because they appealed to the "unimportant" states and voters. If Clinton only won NY and AR, they'd be touting their broad appeal in red states and blue states.

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First of all, it's not given that Obama will get more popular votes.
BUT...here's a leg to stand on...it's entirely possible that Hillary will win more DELEGATES than OBAMA. She is likely going to win more popular votes, esp if they have a repeat in FL/MI.
She'll also have won every single solitary key state, and that matters to superdelegates, and voters...
I smell fear and desperation...shades of 1990s era GOPers.

What are the "key" states. Are those the states that Clinton has won? The states that always vote Democratic? Because it's been sort of proven that if you only focus on those states, the Democrats lose. I like that Obama is using Dean's 50-state strategy and engaging Democrats across the United States, since he's running for President of the United States as opposed to the Clinton's goal of Presidents of the 12 Important States and DC.

Because it's been sort of proven that if you only focus on those states, the Democrats lose.

Yes. See Kerry, John, 2004 Election. See Congressional races, 2002, 2004.

What a concept. 50 states. 50 contested states.

But I like the 12 IMPORTANT STATES (and DC).

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fabooj,

Yes! Nail on the head! Don't you wish there was more talk about the 50 state strategy? Hard to believe there isn't. Still confused, not enough people seem to realize that is the main reason we won in 2006. Barack talks about building a majority, but wish he would say 50 state strategy, it would grab more people, just my thought.

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I'd like to see that math...how does she win 64 percent of the remaining delegates? She didn't in Florida or Michigan. One state didn't even have a campaign, the other didn't even have Obama's name on the ballot. So how exactly does she win approximately 69 to 70 percent of the vote after those delegates are theoretically seated? keep in mend, those totals will only decrease Clinton's lead if a revote is taken in FL/MI. Explain.

"every single solitary key state"???

You mean like Missouri? Wisconsin? Virginia? Washington (state, not DC, though Obama won that too, of course)? These are all key states. And, unlike New York and California and Mass., could well go Red in November.

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If Hillary wins more pledged delegates than Obama, by all means, she deserves the nomination, especially since she would have to win over 65% in every remaining primary, which would be impressive, but unlikely.

If there's the smell of fear and desperation, it's not coming from the Obama camp.

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...it's entirely possible that Hillary will win more DELEGATES than OBAMA.
By what possible scenario do you see this happening, since he has had the lead in awarded delegates since the Iowa Caucuses, and she is currently roughly 100 elected delegates behind them? Do you imagine that she is going to steal those delegates from him? Or, do you imagine that she is going to convince the not-yet-released Edwards delegates to vote for her, "just because"?
She is likely going to win more popular votes, esp if they have a repeat in FL/MI.
She might have a fighting chance of ekeing out a bare majority in FL, notwithstanding Jacksonville, Orlando, Tallahassee, Gainesville, and West Palm... but you can't possibly believe that she is going to take MI, do you? She only managed to win 55% of votes cast on a cold winter night during a beauty contest against "Uncommitted." But you persist in parrotting her fantasy that she is gonna win both of those states? Lay out the detailed scenario for me, please.
She'll also have won every single solitary key state, and that matters to superdelegates, and voters...
As has been pointed out again and again and again... NY, NJ, MA, CA... these states are going to vote for Obama in the General Election if he's the nominee. But, in your world, superdelegates and voters should really worry about that? Perhaps they should instead worry about this: Senator Clinton, in happily throwing the "kitchen sink" at Senator Obama, is alienating increasingly larger portions of the democratic base. Imagine if those portions just stay home in Novemeber... perhaps your ruminating superdelegates and voters should be thinking on that.

You really have no clue about the delegate math, do you?

You can go do the research yourself, or you can take my word. Fact is, before Mississippi, she had to have 25 point blowouts in every single congressional district in every remaining race to catch up to the lead Obama built up by beating her in blowout after blowout. Now she needs more.

Or, forget all that. How about just playing some poker with me? I love playing cards with people who believe magical thinking will more than make up for complete innumeracy.

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If Hillary really believes that Obama can't win the general election then it makes perfect sense to make that case now. Obviously Obama supporters are going to disagree. We'll see what the Pennsylvania voters say and then the superdelegates will make the final call.

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...until the Super Delegates DO make a decision for Obama. In which case, let's go back to the whole Florida and Michigan thing.

Puerto Rico is the new firewall.

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From a reader over at Sullivan's place. It's worth a read and should be forwarded to every super-delegate sitting on the fence.

http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/2008/03/the-embarrassin.html

This is excellent news -- FOR HILLARY!


(Not trying to plagiarize, I just needed to get my fix and haven't seen ironic pop up today)

Woops. There he is up there. And I meant to say idiotic. But still: this is excellent news -- FOR HILLARY!!

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Careful, fat boy.

Berks County's election board is swamped with changes in party affiliation.

We added two ourselves just today. They're in the mail.

From Independent to Democrat.

Obama

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The fact that Hillary has not once gained ground on Obama over time in any state shows that she can't win the GE. She will not have the luxury of being spotted the kind of early advantages she's had in the primaries, as the most favored non-incumbent in US history. Penn's incompetence won't cut it in the GE. Hillary has to hold onto her early advantage in PA to show anything. She really needs a huge blowout. They've thrown the kitchen sink at Obama and still he gained ground on her in Ohio and won in Texas, despite her votes being padded by dittoheads. Furthermore, Obama continues to destroy her in all those "states that don't matter" because Hillary knows that she can't win them, won't compete, won't help downticket Dems, and won't help build the party if she somehow steals the nomination despite losing to Obama according to just about every metric available.

The fact that Hillary has not once gained ground on Obama over time in any state

Good point. The Clinton campaign was a juggernaut until voting actually started, and since then, it's been the campaign equivalent of the Exxon Valdez: leaking poisonous substances all over the environment, and losing voters by the day.

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John McCain may as well take a vacation till around Oct 29th, then show up for the Nov election day. Hillary's handing him the election on a Silver Platter.

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Obama may lose the general, but Hillary Clinton is all but guaranteed to lose the general.

No Democrat can win a national election with nine in ten African American voters vigorously opposed to him or her. Nine in ten African American voters actively oppose Hillary Clinton. It's stunning.

Just a fact.

If she grabs the nomination, Democrats lose. They lose Ohio, certainly: she can't win without urban areas, and they could lose California. Clinton could lose California.

That said, I think they probably hand it to her. Democrats are terrified of the Clintons.

Plus, it's "her turn".

Right. Hillary's campaign depends on absolute democratic support. This is a 50 plus 1 strategy, especially when 47 percent of the country disapproved of her before she even started campaigning. The problem is, Hillary's been cutting into her 50. How is she going to win?

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It's not just black folks. I've heard a lot of similar stuff from my latte-sipping friends of all races. What people fail to realize is that there are a lot of people voting for Obama that aren't closely aligned with him on the issues. (There really aren't any good candidates of either party for moderately liberal / libertarian types.) These people will have no compunctions about not voting for HRC in the fall if she is the nominee, because (1) they are turned off by the constant race-baiting by the HRC campaign; (2) they viscerally dislike HRC and her type of politics; and (3) they aren't too into having their taxes raised. In addition to voting power, these people have money.

If HRC loses even 5-10% of people who would otherwise vote Democratic, she will likely lose the election...

Why wait for PA? It's already obvious that Obama can't beat McCain. The Democratic nominee has to win NY or CA in order to win the general election. Hillary beat Obama in NY and CA. Therefore, he can't win NY and CA in the general election. Heck, he can't even win MA in the general election because Hillary beat him there too. So he obviously can't beat McCain. The logic is airtight.

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Sure, but I don't see how Hillary can win without Illinois, Missouri, Iowa, Wisconsin, and Minnesota. We are screwed if she is the nominee. As you say and Penn clearly implies, losing a primary shows that you will lose that state in the GE. So, a Hillary nomination means McCain will turn the Midwest red. This disaster must be averted.

That's a good point. In fact, McCain has won many more primaries than either Democrat, so he'll obviously win the general election. I guess that we're screwed.

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Now that is funny.

You know that's not what Penn is saying, right? We still have a sense of humor in the future, but it is somewhat more tentative.