Greg,

Would that Tupac Hunter be the same one who was yesterday more or less arguing with the Obama campaign via the press about whether or not it supported or opposed a revote?

http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/03/obama_campaign_denies_michigan.php

This is good for Obama isn't it? Does anyone know how the numbers are likely to shake out if both Florida and Michigan do re-votes?

I think it's good for Obama! Hillary only took 55% of the vote the first time, running against Mike Gravel and Dennis Kucinich.

This is definitely good for Obama. One poll has them tied, and a primary gives him an opportunity to take a state that matters from Clinton. If he can only avoid a redo of Fla, he should be golden.

They're apparently dealing with MI and FL separately, as well they should. Hard enough devising a last-minute primary without having to find a plan that two different sets of politicians will approve.

I think both re-votes are good for Obama. 40% of people in Michigan voted against Hillary the first time around. That's a lot to overcome.

And as for Florida, I don't think Clinton can win by 17% again after Obama actually campaigns in the state. It's been the trend in every contest - Obama shows up and Hillary's numbers drop.

I think Obama could take Michigan and Hillary will probably narrowly take Florida, which would basically be the same as just splitting both delegate counts 50-50. But only tens of millions more expensive.

Obama NEEDS to redo MI.
The DNC can take away delegates but not the Popular vote. Including the MI and FL popular vote, he only has an 80,000 vote advantage. That will be gone after PA. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/democratic_vote_count.html

Since He won't win the nomination via elected delegates, he needs the popular vote to convince the super delegates to make him the nominee.

Florida is going to have to accept one of three realities:
1. They accept a 50-50 split of its deleates.
2. They accept the 1/2 delegate scenario thats being floated around or
3.Screw 'em, they brought this on themselves. I'm so over all the freaking drama down there.

THIS IS EXCELLENT NEWS!! FOR HILLARY!!!

After hearing Ms. Clinton's radio interview regarding the state, yes, definitely redo.
Obama should show up in every nook and cranny of the state.

What happens to people who voted in the GOP primary? Are they going to be excluded from the primary?

Two things to consider:
- wasn't Kos rallying people to vote for Mitt in MI since the Dem primary wouldn't count? I imagine that people who did this will be pissed if they are now banned from the Dem re-vote.
- On the other hand, we've now been hearing and seeing evidence that the right wing (Rush) has been urging GOP voters to cast ballots for Hillary because they see her as the only way to mobilize the right wing in November.

Get on with it already!!!!! Can they schedule it for next week so that we can stop the clinton whining. Also, a condition should be no more debates.

Obama will win Michigan. He hasn't campaigned there and he's tied with Hillary 41-41. That's nearly 20% undecided. At the worst, it will be a narrow victory. At best, 10 points. However, the Michigan superdelegates are breaking for Hillary so she will be the end beneficiary.

Seating FL as it is, even with 1/2 delegates, is ridiculous because the electorate knew beforehand that their votes wouldn't count for anything. It's impossible to predict how many people stayed home because of that. Just because someone suggested this 1/2 seating of FL does not mean Obama or Hillary will accept it. Obama knows this plan would be ludicrous and Hillary won't seat anything less than a full delegation because she needs every delegate she can get. The State of Florida is too incompetent to set up and run an election by June, so look for this stalemate to continue and for a complete waste of everyone's time as nothing happens.

All the wild gesticulating and animosity by Obamites is amusing.

Let's simplify:
1. The popular vote is irrelevant.
2. The number and size of states is irrelevant.
3. Mulligans will not give either candidate a majority of delegates.
4. Neither candidate will go to the convention with the number of delegates for the nomination.

Then what are you going to do Obamites?

This will be either brokered by the party elders or a flip of the coin.

That's the end game. Deal with it..

No, by the rules the popular vote is irrelevant.

So it the amount of states.

I'm saying it.

No. By the rules:
The popular vote is irrelevant.
The amount and size of states is irrelevant.

I'm saying it.

The Super Delegates will keep their powder dry until the convention. That is their raison d'etre.

This will be brokered or by a flip of the coin.

Well if the DNC and SDs are to be pressured then they will fulfill their mandate which is to vote their conscience regardless of the popular vote, the amount of states and all other ephemera. Their mandate is to pick the best candidate for the party. The party. The one that will win the election for the party. Politics being a game of power and influence, the elders will exert their influence. So you're predicting backroom power politics to decide the nominee.

I believe the magic number will not be determined before the convention because the SDs are going o wait to see what they are getting for their vote. And make no mistake, even those that have declared can change anytime before the actual casting of votes.

That's the way the game is played.

The popular vote of the people will be inconclusive. A small majority is not a mandate.The SDs will vote for the party's interest. And they will wait to have their own version of a caucus/election which will be the final determinate.

It will go to the convention.

Here's another thought, slightly off-topic but perhaps relevant. Obama's campaign has consistently used the phrasing that they would abide by whatever the DNC decides. Clinton's camp has never said anything like that. That sounds like Obama is confident the DNC is more in line with his thinking. It's still quite likely that after all the ideas are floated and shot down, there are no re-votes in either state. The Credentials Committee is proportioned on delegate counts and about an additional 23 are appointed by Dean (and would presumably support sanctions - four of them already have). That sounds like an insurmountable voting bloc. So, if you're talking end-game, I like the prevailing currents.

On this subject, we should all contact Hillary Clinton at www.hillaryclinton.com and the DNC at www.democrats.org and remind them that:

- Hillary pledged not to "campaign or participate" in MI and FL
- Hillary did not object to the rules up front
- Hillary admitted that the votes would not count on Super Tuesday
- Hillary's current claim that the votes in MI and FL were fair, legal and should be counted is outrageous, because they weren't and her shallow motive is clear based on her previous actions and remarks.
- in order to uphold the rules, the MI and FL primaries cannot count.
- re-votes would drain precious contribution dollars from the general election, (much like her destrucitve, futile) campaign.
- revotes would be incredibly expensive relative the number of delegages that might go to one candidate or the other (if OH and TX are any indication, $2-$3 million dollars each)
- as a compromise, if the delegates must be seated, they should be split 50-50
- Hillary, the state representatives who ignored the rules and the voters should be happy to have their delegates seated at all, based on the fact that the rules were well known.
- Hillary should be thankful she isn't fined for campaigning.

IMHO.

We should all contact Hillary Clinton at www.hillaryclinton.com and the DNC at www.democrats.org and remind them that:

- Hillary pledged not to "campaign or participate" in MI and FL
- Hillary did not object to the rules up front
- Hillary admitted that the votes would not count on Super Tuesday
- Hillary's current claim that the votes in MI and FL were fair, legal and should be counted is outrageous, because they weren't and her shallow motive is clear based on her previous actions and remarks.
- in order to uphold the rules, the MI and FL primaries cannot count.
- revotes would drain precious contributions needed for the general election
- revotes would be incredibly expensive relative the number of delegages that might go to one candidate or the other (if OH and TX are any indication, $2-$3 million dollars each)
- as a compromise, if delegates must be seated, they should be split 50-50
- Hillary, the state representatives who ignored the rules and the voters should be happy to have their delegates seated at all, based on the fact that the rules were well known.
- Hillary should be thankful she isn't fined for campaigning.

IMHO.

Here's the rub. Obamites are saying that the rules must be abided and the rules cancelled the delegates. Well, the rules also never stated that there could be a re-vote so to have one would be changing the rules. Why is changing the rules for that more acceptable than changing the rules to seat the delegates. Well, it isn't. the rub of course is that the voters of the states should not be disenfranchised. The only real solution is to simply seat the delegates after the final primary. Because at that point those delgates will not matter one iota by the time this gets to the convention.

It will be brokered or decided by a coin toss, both of which will also require changing the rules. This nomination can and will not be decided without rules being changed. Which ones to change will

Leelanau County, Michigan's little finger, will go for Obama in a big way. Our democratic presidential preference caucus on February 9, although not sanctioned by the state party, voted 82% for Obama, 16% for Clinton, and 2% for "uncommitted". Presumably "uncommitted" will not be on the June ballot so we will go 85% for Obama if not more because we are all so tired of Hillary dragging this out.