Obama Still Has Popular Vote Lead — But Just Barely

So with Hillary's wins last night, where does the popular vote stand for the Democratic race? The bottom line is that Barack Obama still has an overall popular lead, albeit a very narrow one.

NBC has the crunched the numbers, and here's what they have:

DNC-Sanctioned Contests
Obama 12,920,961
Clinton 12,322,695

Including Florida
Obama 13,497,175
Clinton 13,193,681

Including Florida And Michigan
Clinton 13,521,832
Obama 13,497,175

Hillary takes a lead if both Florida and Michigan are included, but there is a caveat: Obama was not on the ballot in Michigan, and a lot of Obama supporters there cast their votes for "Uncommitted." None of those votes are included in his column here, which would theoretically put him ahead again.

In addition to the contests yet to be held, the vote totals are also subject to major changes if new, fully-binding elections are called in Florida and Michigan.


Comments (171)

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Are we really, truly this closely divided?

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And where the votes matter -- in big blue states -- she's well ahead.

People have gotten carried away by Obama's numbers in red states. Does an Alabama primary win really mean a damned thing?

Real Americans -- the ones who worry about putting fuel in the car to go to a low-paying job to put something to eat on the table -- are voting for Hillary.

Real Americans -- the grownups who want a person of substance in the White House -- are voting for Hillary.

Wait, I'm from Texas. Am I a real American or not?

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Uh, if you look closely you'll see that the majority of primary voters in Texas went to Clinton.

My point was, Texas is a RED state. As RED as it gets.

Therefore, according to YOUR theory, it doesn't count.

(on a side note, the caucus will go to Obama, but of course, Caucuses are anti-American.... even though they actually allow regular people to become delegates. Huh.)

Wow. From Texas. So you saw what happened up close. My family is down there and they said the crossover was horrendous. What do you think of the poll that puts Hillary within 4 pts of McCain? I think the response to the 3 AM call was positive in Texas -- and, considering that poll -- may actually have helped her against McCain. Sort of a split the diff thing.

I think Rush was effective, period.

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That makes perfect sense if this election is about being president of half the country

I guess I'm just an imaginary American because I'm supporting Obama.

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So only fake Americans voted for Obama? Got it.

Wait a second, why do blue state votes count for more? This seems exactly the opposite of reality to my mind. What we need is a candidate who can win in swing states (MO, OH, PA, IA, FL, NM, CO, VA, WI, MI, WA) by any margin at all, not someone who can run up impressive margins in states that we will win automatically. Maybe Clinton is that candidate; maybe Obama is. One way or another, however, being able to win solidly blue states by a larger margin than the other guy counts for nothing at all.

Exactly Greg. And if we look at what some people like to call "big swing" states, who won those by huge margins? Obama: Washington, Missouri and Virginia.

California and New York aren't swing states.

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11,000 votes in a Democratic Missouri primary is not anyone's definition of a "huge margin".

Ditto what Cube3 just said. I am as proud as can be that my state went for Obama, but the reality is that it just barely went for him. Indeed, the delegate counts were dead even - 47 apiece.

That said, I have said before and I will say again - I know that Obama can win MO and I know that Clinton cannot. I cannot prove this, but I know it to be true. I also know that McCain can win MO, so nobody should get too cocky about our chances in this state even if we do nominate Obama.

I know that Obama can win MO and I know that Clinton cannot. I cannot prove this, but I know it to be true.

This pretty much sums up the Obama supporter's mindset.

"Don't need to prove anything, we just feel real good about it!" Heh-heh-heh.

Sure, fair enough. Anyone who doubts me is well justified to do so. I am not making an argument, just voicing my own intuitions as someone born and raised in Missouri, so I can easily appreciate that those from elsewhere might find my post unconvincing.

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As someone whose family is all from Ohio (most still live there) and being a political junkie, my experience tells me the same thing about Hillary vs McCain in Ohio and Missouri and other similar states.

Hillary will get the partisan Dem votes, McCain will get the partisan Republican votes, but McCain will get far more of the independent votes and carry those states.

In midwest swing states, McCain will beat Hillary on experience, foreign policy, and "toughness." Her "Reagan Democrat" supporters are the same people who will prefer McCain more in the GE.

He'll also beat her on "change" after years of being called a "Maverick" and being known for campaign finance reform, while Hillary has been the epitome of a Democrtic establishment figure and doesn't really have any record of reform or even bucking the Democratic establishment. In fact, she's known as a triangulater.

She'll lose or break even with indies on economic issues, because she promoted the biggest blunders of Dem policy like NAFTA, and can;t really claim to be better than McCain. McCain is sure to hammer her on NAFTA, which will also depress voter turnout.

She'll lose or break even with indies who want out of Iraq, because she flip flopped on that too. And again, that will depress voter turnout because there won't be a candidate with a clean record on the issue.

Her medical insurance plan over emphasizes mandates, which are easy to scare people off, and which killed "Hillary Care" in 1992 making it DOA. Again, McCain is sure to hit Hillary on the mandates, and history has shown that mandates are political disasters in the real world beyond Democratic think tanks. (or in the case of No Child Left Behind, Republican think tanks.)

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Hey I always like your posts. I think that it really does matter. The crucial test for any candidate is if they can win the support of the base of the party. Moving to November without the base behind you invites disaster. This has always been the huge weakness of Obama's candidacy. It's based on a coalition which does not rest solidly on the base, but rather on 1st time, crossover & independent voters. In a very real sense it does not matter what kind of numbers Obama can put up in red states come november if he cannot bring the entire base out in traditional blue states & the base has chosen Hillary over & over.

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Well, in all fairness, I think Obama has drawn the females and older voters a few times. He has never won the Latinos.

But, yes, Obama needs to draw Hillary's supporters into his fold of men, young folks, and AAs. He leaves them with questions and then, like in Ohio and Texas, they decide to return to Hillary. Hillary is right that Obama is not closing the deal with the groups that support her.

Not true; Obama won Hispanics in the Potomac Primaries.

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In case I didn't say it, Obama needs to have the consistent and lasting support of Latinos. Virginia gave me hope after California and that went in the sewer after Texas. Obama needs to keep this support.

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The Latino vote in Virginia was only 2%. It's not a large enough sample to say he actually carried them there, given that the primary was an overall blowout that skewed the results in many demographics.

Obama's problem against McCain is that McCain's from a border state, with a moderate position on immigration. Obama could lose Latinos to McCain and mnight have to actually spend time and money to hang onto California.

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No way Obama would lose Hispanics to McCain. Are you nuts? No way in hell McCain takes the Hispanic vote.

McCain is already going anti-immigrant to tie up his conservative hawkishness with conservative xenophobia and nationalism generally, which also dovetails with white Evangelical fundamentalism. That's guarenteed.

Christ, McCain was just endorsed by a white Evangelical who calls the entire Catholic Church a Satanic cult. McCain accepted the endorsement gladly and wouldn't denounce him. The vast majority of Hispanics are Catholic, of course. McCain clearly has no intention of getting the Hispanic vote. Get real.

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btw,

the nut endorsing McCain (Hagee) is also virulently anti-immigrant and anti-Hispanic, and frequently equates immigrants with "terrorists."

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Reality check:

Indy voters, and new voters, will be decisive in swing states in 2008. They've broken overwhelmingly or Obama.

Hispanics have been breaking for Hillary from 50/50 to 65/35 at most. However, that's down considerably from a few moths ago, as Obama has been steadilly closing the gap with Hispanics in swing states. That's despite Hillary's huge name recognition advantage.

There's a reason for that: language barriers, less education, and lower incomes in the Hispanic community means their political allegiance changes more slowly and they're lagging behind the curve somewhat. Which is why they're politically where the rest of the country was a few moths ago, i.e. still favoring Hillary by 10+ points, but moving towards Obama.

Come the GE the Hispanic vote will support whoever the Democratic nominee is.

Again, the GE gets back to who can appeal to Indies and turn out new voters.

I think that getting the nomination is all that Obama really needs in order to win those elements of the base which are not already with him. I really do not believe that union workers or senior citizens will defect to McCain simply because Clinton is not on our ticket. I agree with Cube that Obama needs to do a better job reaching out to Clinton's constituencies, but I am not really worried that he would not be able to carry these constituencies in the GE if he got the nomination.

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If we knew the reason(s) that females and older voters supported Hillary, we would know if we had reason for concern in the GE. For example, if these folks voted for Hillary versus Obama because they felt Hillary would provide better security and military leadership...well, that might fail with the choices being Hillary and McCain.

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We do know the reasons.

By and large Hillary's lead with women is due to gender politics, though it diminished considerably in a short amount of time. There's no policy explanation for Hillary's lead with women. If anything things like NAFTA hurt women the most being the most economically vulnerable.

Hispanics are trending away from Hillary towards Obama as well. Hillary's remaining, but diminishing, lead with Hispanics (and some black leaders) is basically down to loyalty, fear, and patronage. Like all minority groups trying to get a seat at the establishment table, they fear breaking loyalty with establishment patrons.

Historically, disempowered minorities tend to patronize the biggest establishment figure to be their rainmaker. They're typically very afraid of backing another minority candidate as they fear the rebuke from the establishment. Ordinary working class blacks, Hispanics, and Asians, only a year ago would insist a black man becoming president or winning white states like Iowa was an absolute impossibility in 2008.

All American immigrant communities have done this. Italian Americans and Irish Americans used to back WASP patrons before Italian and Irish Catholics could run for higher offices.

They'll vote Obama in the GE if he gets the nomination, and quickly forget Hillary. Don't mistake loyalty based in fear and patronage for real support for her.


Greg asks: "Wait a second, why do blue state votes count for more?"

Because nothing proves you are the best Democratic candidate for the general election more than your ability to win states that the Democrats will win no matter who they run. If you win a Red State in the primary, it only proves that you are able to reach out to independents and Republicans.

Clear now?

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Yeah S1 - thank you for articulating pretty much EVERYTHING that's been wrong with the Democratic party for, oh, about 25 years.

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Wait, so Hillary Clinton isn't a Real American?

And where the votes matter -- in big blue states -- she's well ahead.

Can't get enough of that "Hillary wins the states that are big/blue/[insert latest Mark Penn generated adjective____]" meme. Remember that according to polls the vast majority (~75%) of Dem voters said they would vote for either Obama or Clinton. So if it's already a Dem stronghold (e.g. CA or NY), we don't have data showing either of the candidates won't carry it in November.

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Real Americans

Translation: White people who unquestioningly accept a system of private tyranny where one's worth is measured by their usefulness to the purpose of wealth production.

If that's what a Real American is . . . and you realize, don't you, that only in totalitarian societies can terms such as 'Real American' be employed with a straight face . . . then I'm glad to be unreal.

So you're saying that if Obama gets the nomination, all the Dems in CA, NY, et al will vote for McCain?? Riiiiight.

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Maybe not, but can you make that same argument hold in Missouri or Ohio or Florida or....See what I mean?

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Swing states like Missouri will go for Obama and not for Hillary for the reason that Obama brought out far more new voters and independents to support him, putting those states solidly in the blue column, that Hillary just can't, and doesn't, turn out.

btw, McCain also will have tremendous appeal to Indies, and the Republican base will unify behind him, especially against Hillary who they've loathed for 16 years.

Which is why we need to field a candidate who can challenge McCain with Indies, i.e. Obama, not just appeal to the base in safe states like CA and NY, i.e. Hillary.

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Why do votes there matter more? let's not have any crap about these primaries meaning anything about the November election. Obama will carry CA, NY, and MA; Hillary would lose TX, and carry IL and MD. The results mean nothing for November; only for the nomination, and all votes count the same for that.

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then why have a primary there in the first place?

should there be a primary in Illinois or new york since everyone know who the winner will be in those states?

Why do Hillary's talking points always sound like they were written by Karl Rove?

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As someone who lives in one of those no-count pink states that have an un-American caucus system --- you know, where you have to interact with your fellow citizens for two hours as if you cared about the result -- I can confirm that Hillary will lose here easily. "Here" is a wretched little state in the Pacific Northwest of no special note except for its unnaturally large population of kids who hardly know how to wipe their noses let along distinguish right from wrong, much less apprehend god's own truth that Hillary Clinton is the best thing to come along since Betsy Ross, Amen. But, hell, what with Texas, Florida, Missosuri, and Virginia to fall back on, Hillary won't be needing us anyway. Eleven electoral votes. What a joke.

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Wow. "Real Americans," huh? Whew. I guess you're the one to make that call.

Let's see.... I was born 57 years ago in Saint Mary's Hospital in Long Beach, California, and grew up on a succession of military bases around the world and in many states. I went to high school in Reno, Nevada, and Citrus Heights, California. I did my undergrad at UC Santa Cruz and my graduate degrees at UC San Diego. I now live in Florida, holding on for dear life to a job I don't like simply because the economy here has utterly tanked and there are precious few places hiring in what I do. I have a wife and two step kids. My kid wants to join the Navy but wants to wait until Bush leaves office, but he's being tempted to join early because not even McDonald's is hiring right now. I'm a board member of my local Democratic Club.

I was a strong, contributing supporter of John Edwards. After he dropped out, I was initially somewhat indifferent as between Obama and Clinton. Hillary changed that for me when she began channeling Karl Rove.

I guess I'm not a "Real American" because I don't like the crap that Hillary's been shoveling.

This kind of "Real American" comment is the kind of politics of which I am thoroughly sick and tired and why I wouldn't vote for Hillary if you paid me.

If you are a Democrat living in a red state, the primaries are your *only* opportunity to be heard in presidential selection. I am very disturbed by this assertion that we don't matter because we'll go red in November. This is the season where we actually do matter...We will be heard.

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The whole discussion about "winning" primaries by narrow margins completely misses the important issues.

What's far more important is who is turning out independents and generally increasing the Democratic vote in preparation of running against McCain in the GE. Whether the Dem nominee can win swing states hinges on Independents and overall turnout.

Obama (or any Dem nominee) will easily win CA, NY, and IL and other safe blue states. Any Dem nominee will also win the existing partisan Democratic voters in swing states already motivated by Bush, such as Ohio.

However, Hillary's problem, and the problem of the DLC generally, has been their inability to win independents. In a nut shell: they're great at turnign out a majority of Democrats who represent a minority of the overall electorate in the GE. Not a great strategy for actually winning the GE.

Obama will also do better in OH and FL against McCain because he appeals to independents, who will be decisive in those states. Hillary can win Democratic primaries there, but she can't win against McCain in the GE, because she flip-flopped on Iraq, has NAFTA and such on her record, can't hold a candle to him on the "experience" issue, and will have alienated young and black voters if she takes the nomination by Super Delegates overruling the majority.

In 2000 and 2004 the Dems won only the safe states, and lost close elections everywhere else. Hillary has has again relied on the well established Democratic machine in CA, NY, and other large states. That's the same DLC mistake as before.

Obama has equaled Hillary with partisan Democrats, despite her huge advantages in name recognition and long time alliances. He's won independents by huge margins in more swing states like Iowa, Missouri, Virginia, and others in play in 2008. He's brought in new voters who can decisively move those swing states into the Democratic column.

A Hillary nomination by Super Delegate will be a disaster.

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Americans are strange fellow humans. From South Africa, where I live, you all come across as a bit mad... actually a bit out of control - perhaps its chemical (yet it is sometimes what we like about you. But how easily you lose your national sense of perspective and get bogged down in all sorts of ridiculous debates, complications and calculations. From here there is only one simple calculation for a democracy - whoever wins the popular vote wins! Simple and essential. You learnt nothing from Gore winning the popular vote but losing the Presidency. With you the loser can win! Why do you allow this to happen, where is your democratic backbone?

At the end of the day if the popular vote is not what decides the primaries your election system will be tainted once more, your happy democracy exposed once more as a dough-nut, tasty but hollow.

Worst of all, young Americans will soon become cynical old Americans.

S1, telling more than half of Democrats that they are not "Real Americans" is not a good way to advocate for your candidate.

Obviously if Obama's name had been on the Florida ballot, he would have gotten the 25,000 or so votes he would need to still be in the popular vote lead even if Florida votes are included.

Given the circumstances, the MI and FL numbers are pointless.

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As a Florida resident who voted for Edwards in what I knew was a futile and distorted primary, I would strongly resent the Florida and Michigan "primary" results being accepted by the DNC. It would be the height of injustice. Those primaries were botched and distorted in full knowledge of the rules and their consequences by all involved, including the respective state governments, who changed the primary dates, and the presidential candidates, who agreed to the rules, Senator Clinton included.

Fortunately Dr. Dean is standing firm on not changing the rules in the middle of the game to satisfy the increasingly strident Sen. Clinton. Her pose is that in calling for the Florida and Michigan delegates to be counted she is standing for the principle that all votes should be counted. Would she be making that case if Obama had won in Florida and Michigan or if she had Obama's current lead in pledged delegates?

Of course Michigan and Florida voters should count, but only if we can get a do-over, as our Republican Governor Crist recently suggested (in a cost-free bid for his own re-election: no way will room made in the strapped budget by our Republican majority House and Senate, something Crist knows full well.) Otherwise, Michigan and Florida Democrats must put the blame where it belongs - on their state governments - and content ourselves with voting in the general election.

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"And where the votes matter -- in big blue states -- she's well ahead."

Why would they matter there?

Kerry and Gore won all of those, and look where it got them.

Obama's wins in Missouri, Wisconsin, Colorado and Virginia are significant.

"Real Americans -- the grownups who want a person of substance in the White House -- are voting for Hillary."

The old Baby Boomer generation which has driven this country into the ground doesn't deserve the car keys anymore. You had your chance -- and failed. Now it's time for the next generation.

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This sort of silliness needs to stop. Hillary gets the older voters and you think the way for them to break for Obama is to insult them? Puh-leeze.

So how does Obama get females and older voters that are reliable Democrats to break for him. These folks back off and then go for Hillary right in the last days. If you aren't worried about this, I would submit that you absolutely need to be. And I would bet you that Obama is just as damned worried about what he has to do to close the deal with these folks. It is a problem.

The red states, no matter what size, are really charged up and I would like to see that continue. It may not mean the state is won for the Prez race, but it could be very beneficial for down-ticket Democrats.

Obama would have sewn this up if he could rely on a majority of either females or older voters. My take is that you have to refer to their grandmother status (who is your little darling supporting--answer, Obama). I don't view the 3AM ad as fear-mongering as much as recognizing that moms out in America worry about their kids and appreciate that a candidate recognized that worry and said I'll take care of it.

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By your logic, I guess Sen. Clinton needs to work on holding onto white males and blacks.

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tomjones, it's dependent on the demographics of a state. Enough females and older voters and Hillary is almost to the halfway mark. Enough younger folks and AAs and Obama is almost to the halfway mark.

Both have the same damned problem. When I've looked at the results, Hillary is swinging back and forth depending on the demographics of a state. Obama can sometimes draw in the females and older voters and then he has a huge victory. But Obama has to do this reliably and that is a problem.

If he solves the problem, I firmly believe he will have the nomination as Prez. If that were the case, I could tolerate Hillary as the VP.

This is Obama's problem to solve. Look, I'm an Obama supporter but I also know he has to step up to this problem and fix it. Ignoring it is not good enough.

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Your "math" is just flat wrong.

The only people Hillary keeps winning are the safest of Democratic voters. Poll after poll shows Hillary winning safe states and losing swing states and independents to McCain. Hillary doesn't turn out many new voters. Even her camapign themes of "change" and "yes she can" are lifted from Obama.

She'll be a bad joke against McCain in swing states with Indie voters.

Ohio is polling to be a very good state for McCain. He does better with hawkish and conservative Indies than Hillary does with anti-war and economic reform Indies. He actually is a hawk, and Hillary has flip-flopped all over on anti-war and Progressive issues.

McCain is often considered a "Maverick" and because the media is so easy on him, a Hillary nomination could actually make McCain the more reform and more independant candidate. :rolleyes: Which would be a real disaster.

Even worse, if Hillary wins via the SDs over ruling the pledged delegates, it'll alienate much of the Democrats and new voters, especially the anti-war, black, young, and progressive voters who turned out in droves for Obama and vastly expanded the Democratic party.

So what good does it do for her to win the primary in a state like Ohio if the Democrats are going to lose in November if she's the nominee.

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What will be very interesting to see is how the popular vote count changes with the remaining contests.

At least by my admittedly somewhat crude estimates, I'd expect the remaining contests to significantly favor Hillary overall, with Pennsylvania being the main prize.

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How many popular votes does a candidate need to be the Democratic nominee?

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As far as most superdelegates are concerned, probably only more popular votes than any other candidate.

Hm, I would have to see your math to know if your crude analysis was convincing, but I am skeptical. I think that it is premature to expect a blow-out lead in PA. Clinton had double digit leads in TX and OH this far out, and in the end she saw them both shrink dramtically. I expect that, given that PA is already shrunk, she cannot look forward to a real blow out there to shift the numbers. Meanwhile, North Carolina has much larger population than most folks realize and it favors Obama (at least according to present polls). I am skeptical of the ability to predict much about the popular vote this far out.

Yeh, MS and NC are both huge HRC strongholds.

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If Obama wasn't on the ballot in Michigan, why would you bother listing Michigan?

Ditto.

It's ridiculous for any serious press person to keep including it in any tallies. It understandable for Hillary partisans who are willing to take the nomination by any means necessary, but it's just silly for anyone else to do so.

And it was absolutely sickening to hear Hillary claim Florida and Michigan wins in her speech last night. Yuck.

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Why does OBama need a revote in FL? He was on the ballot and lost! Hillary got 250K more votes than Obama.

Huh? Obama does not need a re-vote there. Clinton does, or perhaps more charitably we all need a re-vote there. A re-vote so that those delegates from FL can be seated. Mind you, once that re-vote is held, I will eat my shoes if she wins by that same margin as she won in January. If no re-vote is held, however, that would suit Obama's purposes just fine. The delegates will not be seated and her margin of defeat will be just as wide as it is right now.

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He is clearly ahead, and Hillary just passed her last real chance to close the gap.

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Obama intrigues intelligent voters. He inspires the young. He's not a cynic. Suddenly that's enough for me. It's too nice a day to worry about this anymore. See you at the 19th hole.

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Ok, I ask this every time a popular vote thread is posted and nobody ever responds, so I have little hope of getting an answer now. But:

How do caucuses fit in here (real, full-blown caucuses)?

For example, the reported vote in Iowa gave Obama about 200 more county delegates. That is the only official number. The total popular vote would have given him around 20,000 more on top of that had it been tallied. But there is no way to come up with a number that could be used in these statistics with any sort of confidence. So, does Obama deserve credit for tens of thousands (maybe more) of votes not reported in all the real caucuses (not the prima-caucuses) in the states he's won?

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I agree. TPM guys, this is a question that needs answered.

I hear what you are saying and I will be the first to agree that popular vote totals are an imperfect measure. That said, imperfect though they might be, they are at least real numbers on which we can all agree. Caucus totals are not. As such, while I see the point you are trying to make, I am afraid that we have no better measure of the popular will than the popular vote totals which we are presently using.

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There is no way to make caucuses into real numbers that 100% refelect the popular will. I agree. However, to say that the popular will is reflected when you're ignoring tens of thousands of voters due to uncertainty is a flawed argument, in my opinion. In my Iowa pricinct Obama beat Clinton by well over 200 votes. Yet that's all the lead he gets from the entire state, even though he beat her by 10%.

My main point is that if we were able to accurately count the popular vote in the caucus states Obama would have a much more significant lead. As it is currently reported the popular vote numbers reflect a narrative that simply isn't true. I understand using the numbers for some analytical purposes, but I believe the truth deserves at least a disclaimer.

In this breakdown it appears on quick review that caucus states are simply omitted:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/democratic_vote_count.html

On closer look some of the caucuses are included in these totals (but obviously at lower percentage participation rates so the effect is much less on the total).

Sure, and that is why I think that most folks are more focused on delegate totals anyway. At least there one is comparing apples and apples, not apples and oranges (even if delegate totals are themselves a flawed measure of the popular will).

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I think people focus on delegate vote because that is the usual benchmark, and usually adequate to pick a clear frontrunner. This is a unique situation, and I think that Obama supporters should at least appreciate that. Would you be saying the same things if the roles were reversed?

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Yes. I understand talking about the popular vote in a close race. All I'm asking is that the talking heads say something like "of course this number doesn't have votes from caucus states completely figured in." Then go ahead and talk about how close it is. These lost votes are important precisely because of how close the totals are.

When one candidate has won all but one caucus I think this is important. Regardless of which candidate it is.

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Yeah Greg, I agree. Delegate count is all that matters. It just bothers me how often I see the popular vote total quoted on TV--omitting caucus states and counting two states who's votes don't matter seems like stacking the deck for Hillary.

Just for my own peace of mind:

Iowa: Obama +8.1% of 240,000 voters
Nevada: Clinton +5.5% of 116,000 voters
Washington: Obama +36.4% of 32,000 voters
Maine: Obama +19.6% of 45,000

So Obama has a popular vote lead in these four completely omitted states of something close to 33,528. Not as significant as I imagined, but enough to even up the +FL/MI total. The total voters I'm seeing seems especially small in WA, so I can't guarantee the accuracy. I'm not sure where the numbers come from in the other seven or so caucuses (as listed in the RCP link).

If Obama wasn't on the ballot in Michigan, why would you bother listing Michigan?

That would be akin to negative Clinton press.
Can't have that...

Must bend over backwards to be fair to the Queen.

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The popular vote is a measure that inherently favors Clinton. Fewer people typically participate in caucuses than primaries. Since Obama has performed well in states that happen have caucuses (many smaller, rural state, for instance), his performance is understated if you just look at the popular vote. So, relying on popular vote, would effectively disenfranchise voters in caucus states. Pledged delegates are the only meaningful way to compare popular support and popular enthusiasm.

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I'm interested in the reasons folks have for females and older votes staying with Hillary. These folks went to Obama in other states which seem to be the smaller states or the states that have not been reliably democratic at the national level.

Is it a matter of advertising in these larger states? Is it a matter of the Obama response to late-breaking semi-nasties that come up? Is it a matter of adequately responding to late-breaking ads like the 3AM ad?

Does Obama need to fire his ad campaign folks? his Lation outreach staff?

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Awesome parody, S1. Here's my question: Will the narrative allow Obama to be the rightful nominee if he loses Pa.? Or does a Clinton victory there just equal Obams wins in Miss and NC? It's looking like Pa. might just be the crucial contest.

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I think PA is the next crucial contest.

I don't understand why Michigan is discussed. I think that most students of democracy would concur that a meaningful election requires more than one name on the ballot.

Florida is similar. Clinton was widely scene as contesting those primaries whereas Obama was not. Clinton, as I recall, argued that Florida and Michigan's delegations should be seated before those votes. I wonder if Clinton would have argued that the Florida and Michigan delegations should be seated if Obama's name was also on the Michigan ballot. Here's why:

Momentum hyperbole aside, the demographics of each state are probably the greatest determinant of the state by state outcomes. I would venture that Michigan and Ohio would more or less negate each other if fair primary elections were held and would have negated each other if Obama's name had been on the Michigan ballot.

As is, continuing to list Florida and Michigan in hypothetical tallies lends legitimacy to these contests - effectively caving to Clinton spin.

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Michigan, like Ohio and PA, is a classic Rust Belt state.

I can't imagine why it would not incline in the same way as OH and PA, and for much the same reasons.

One difference would be that Obama no longer has the perception of momentum on his side.

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Why can't you simply draw conclusions for Michigan based on Ohio? Well, for one thing, we were blue in 2004 and 2000. I'm on the west side of the state, a Republican stronghold, and I've only heard people talking about Obama. I've heard very little about McSame and even less about Clinton.

I have relatives who are Dobson supporters who have talked about the possibility of voting for Obama. You think they hesitate for even a second if it's Clinton vs. McSame? No chance.

But if it goes like OH that would be a 10% margin and not a 100% margin as are included in the popular vote total above.

So am I a "real American" if I go to a decent paying job?


The point is, to my mind, that there is a system in place, for better or for worse, and the parties involved all agreed to it (of sound mind and body). You can talk about who "wins" a state, and you can talk about who "wins" the popular vote, but those issues simply aren't material. What's at issue, frankly, is what the super-delegates are going to do, since pledged delegates aren't going to do it for either candidate. Each candidate is entitled to argue the case for why he or she should receive the votes of the super-delegates but I don't see why one argument should succeed over another.

One could perhaps make a case that the super-delegates will be charged with the question of deciding who can beat John McCain, but I would imagine that if they decide this on the basis of "big" states, there will be considerable dissatisfaction within the party, so it's a big risk.

I think we're going to have a real test of the delegate system this time around.

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What’s really interesting is that Obama supporters assume that he is going to march into Washington and somehow magically change the culture overnight. It’s not going to happen. This argument is flawed on its face.

Obama’s mentor in the senate was Joe Lieberman. He campaigned for Joe Lieberman against Ned Lamont. So clearly, Obama is a politician, through and through, as evidenced by his support of a shameless pro-war Hawk. News Flash: both he and Clinton are professional politicians.

As for the tone of the pro-Obama posts, I know it must be frustrating to have actual voters ruin your perfectly laid plans. But try and keep your wits about you. And remember, insulting and denigrating those who support Sen. Clinton completely undermines all of your arguments, and guarantees that a large portion of the Democratic electorate will never vote for your candidate.

Also, how is it that at every opportunity, you regurgitate Republican talking points about Hillary and then accuse her of attacking Obama and handing her attack plan to the Republicans?

LOL, "our" plans aren't ruined yet.

Hillary won, what, 10 delegates last night?

Break out the champagne! Hail to the Chief!

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Obama supported Lamont:

"Ned Lamont has waged an impressive grass-roots campaign to give the people of Connecticut a choice in the November Senate election," Obama wrote. "Please join me in supporting Ned Lamont with your hard work on-the-ground in these closing weeks of the campaign."