Obama's Endorsement In Philly Mayor's Race Reverberating In Pennsylvania Primary?
I don't know a darn thing about Philadelphia politics, but this seems pretty interesting.
With the stakes having multiplied around the Pennsylvania contest in April, it seems that a recent decision by Barack Obama to endorse in the Philly mayor's race could have repercussions in this state's primary.
In last year's Philly race, Obama endorsed Rep. Chaka Fattah, who lost that race to current Philly Mayor Michael Nutter. As a result, as Philly blogger Will Bunch explains, Nutter endorsed Hillary some time ago, on the theory that the enemy of your enemy is your friend.
Fast forward to today: Bill is in Philly, trying to round up the support of local ward leaders for Hillary. Apparently genuflecting before these ward leaders is critical in machine-town Philly, and having the support of the mayor is evidently very helpful in winning them over.
Bottom line: Obama's endorsement in last year's mayor's race could conceivably have a limited impact in Pennsylvania. Or so we hear from the experts, such as Philly-based Atrios, who puts it this way: "I highly doubt Obama ever imagined his courtesy endorsement of Chaka Fattah in the mayoral race would end up being such an important misstep."















It's not important. Hillary doesn't have a real shot at winning the nomination by overtaking Obama's pledged delegate lead. On her "big comeback" day she cut his lead of 150 delegates by about 3%. A few votes in Philly aren't going to turn this around for her increasingly delusional campaign.
March 7, 2008 1:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama isn't going to lose the black vote in Philly just b/c the mayor didn't endorse him. That's ridiculous. Lots of black leaders in South Carolina endorsed Clinton (at least one after a questionable donation to his campaign account) and look what good that did her.
Greg, here's a better Will Bunch post in which he explains that the mayor's endorsement could actually hurt more among white ethnics than blacks, which may be possible. Like you, I don't know if that will really happen.
http://www.attytood.com/2008/03/hillarys_secret_weapon_1.html
Nutter's backing of Clinton is a mirror image of that 1999 endorsement. With 23 of 27 black ward leaders in Philadelphia supporting Barack Obama over Clinton, it's doubtful that the mayor will sway more than a handful of votes -- in African-American neighborhoods.
March 7, 2008 3:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm not getting you.
How is the Mayor of Philadelphia going to get an entire city to vote one way or another.
I can understand he may do photo-ops with Sen. Clinton, but does that really have any sway with voters?
Like you said so clearly, I have no idea how PA politics work, but I don't see this as news.
But then again, every time Hillary farts, you're there to applaud.
March 7, 2008 1:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
Has to do with the Dem machine that's available to party insiders; big city mayors can really crank up their GOTV infrastructure for national candidates when they want to.
March 7, 2008 1:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
Maybe. Nutter hasn't even taken office yet and in a heavily Democratic area where the primary is the more important race, he gathered in 36.7% of the vote.
I suspect that the power in Philly is not in the mayor's office but in the offices of the ward leaders. This is still true in almost all of the "old" big cities--I'm in St. Louis and it is certainly true here.
This is the reason Bill is there begging for access to GOTV data unique to each ward. The mayor can't provide that--each ward leader has that info tatooed to his/her hide so it is never out of sight.
March 7, 2008 3:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
More Hillary talking points.... I guess that's why they call it Talking Points Memo.
March 7, 2008 1:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
Does the mayor of Philadelphia have more influence on his black constituents or is it the other way around? I'm assuming the black vote in the next mayoral primary will be important. I think it's a gamble if this ends up being a "Florida 2000" style controversy. People remember which side of the controversy you were on for years to come.
March 7, 2008 1:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
You're right. For example, I bet African Americans in the city will fall right in line behind Bill and the mOnStEr. They will forgive the race card dealt earlier in the campaign. They will forgive the darkening of Obama's skin in a recent ad. They will forgive comparing him to Jesse Jackson and calling him a fairy tale. Yes, you're right, a "misstep" from last year will certainly haunt Obama from here on out.
March 7, 2008 1:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
This sort of amateurish Keystone Kops blather is exactly why Barack is totally unqualified to be POTUS. Clinton goes on the attack in a political campaign and she's a mOnStEr!!!! Oh, the humanity!
Do you thin-skinned rookies really think your or your guru-sensei-god-whatever are ready for the big leagues? Not yet you aren't.
Get a grip, and grow up. Out there where people have actual jobs, where they aren't living with mommy and daddy, and where daddy doesn't pay their car insurance and credit card bills - it's a pretty harsh place.
Clinton knows that. The majority of Americans knows that. It's time for the Kaptain and Krew of the Kool-Aid Express to figure it out.
Put another way: If Barack can't stand the heat he should get out of the kitchen.
March 7, 2008 1:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, you're certainly not any better. If a supporter blathers, it's somehow the candidate's fault?
March 7, 2008 3:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
Or... If Nutter wants to get re-elected as mayor of Philadelphia, he won't push too hard for Clinton. He may not want to remind the 45% of philly that is black that he backed Hillary Clinton. Pulling levers behind the scenes would be just as difficult for him, as black leaders in Philadelphia would not forget that.
March 7, 2008 1:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
"I don't know a darn thing about Philadelphia politics" That is the key line. Would you care to switch it to the title?
March 7, 2008 1:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
That is not good for obama.........
i see hillary pulling off a huge win here....
she has won all the big huge states so why wouldn't that continue.
Polls show her in the lead
she has more endorsements in that state then obama
and she has been campiagning in that state for about a month.
Nothing shows a obama win....
All the newspapers, online websites and news channels so an clinton win.
Polls and everything show a tight race in North Carolina too....
she just might win this thing, if she can get those delegates in michigan and florida seated.
March 7, 2008 1:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
she just might win this thing, if she can get those delegates in michigan and florida seated.
So in other words: "she just might win this thing, if she can get hordes of flying baboons to fly out of her ass."
And by the way, Hillary's a monster. Quote me on that.
March 7, 2008 1:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
Is anything ever GOOD NEWS!! FOR OBAMA!!?
He'll probably lose Pennsylvania by 10. But that's a state she needs to win by 30 at this point to significantly cut into his lead.
March 7, 2008 1:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is a "tight race"? Surely you jest?
March 7, 2008 2:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
attention "bias" cops: is Atrios biased against Obama for writing...
"I highly doubt Obama ever imagined his courtesy endorsement of Chaka Fattah in the mayoral race would end up being such an important misstep."
would love an answer to that one. of course, you'll probably say he is biased, sadly
March 7, 2008 1:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
Not really sure what your point is in offering this up. Personally, I prefer instead of egging on the more pretenious folks out there, you'd focus more attention on analyzing the politics of various events. And I say this as a genuine fan of TPM and its staff.
You folks have steadily become more of a conduit than a place for analysis and commentary. I can get Obama or Clinton's spin on the days action from them or any basic news outlet. I come here expecting MORE.
Just something to chew on.
March 7, 2008 1:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
Amen. How about focusing on things that are actually important to the election?
How many "Monster" stories are we going to get?
She said it. Hillary's camp reacted. Obama apologized on behalf of staff. Hillary sends out campaign emails based on comment. Staffer resigns.
Shouldn't that pretty much cover the whole issue?
And looking over the recent stories, not one mention of Howard Wolfson comparing Obama to Kenneth Starr. Talk about high journalistic integrity.
It is getting old. I'm not asking for 1 good comment balanced by a good comment for the other. Simply, if you're going to jump on Obama's campaign for a staffer's comment WHEN A HILLARY STAFFER DID THE SAME FRICKIN' THING, why the bias???
March 7, 2008 1:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
My post was directed to the "bias" argument, which I don't think is really salient to any particular point. I see more as a way to get some of the more petulant folks riled up. Sort of like pouring salt into an open wound.
March 7, 2008 1:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Perhaps this is just solidarity among people named Greg, but I think that Mr Sargent is correct. It is not "bias" to report significant (or at least potentially significant) happenings and observations, even if those happenings and observations bode well for one side or the other. This is newsworthy, quite regardless of whether it favors Clinton.
March 7, 2008 1:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
gregger's navel gazing IS EXCELLENT NEWS!!! FOR HILLARY!!!!
March 7, 2008 1:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
What's the theory you're going for Greg? I 'spose it could be that the mayor's GOTV operation is so awesome that rolling the Obama GOTV into town means little. Or I 'spose it could be that Obama doesn't have enough activists in the city to do adequate GOTV?
Look, Hillary got the Missouri Democratic "machine". Her state chair was a female Dem state rep known to be up and coming. Their GOTV operation did not match Obama's.
Is there some reason that this is NOT true in this case?
March 7, 2008 1:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
More important than even Storch as her state chair, she got Mayor Slay as well, but the city still went overwhelmingly for Obama. In other words, your point is even more apt than you made out.
March 7, 2008 1:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
How is this news?
March 7, 2008 1:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
This presumes that local ward politics can still "influence" the vote in their area. And I don't mean influence in a positive way. I mean it in the way that all political machines operate.
Obama's campaign, frankly, has lost complete control of the narrative of this campaign. I'm not sure what the fuck they are doing, but the fact that the candidate hasn't been heard from for essentially 48 hours plus is not helping anything. He needs to start leading, otherwise this thing is going to get away from him QUICKLY.
And this is not to say any of the crap that has been rolling out of the Clinton camp is valid or otherwise permanently damaging. It's that she's playing offense, setting the tone and agenda everyday. My guess is that this Powers thing interrupted their initial plan to recapture the narrative with their fundraising numbers. Well, deal with it.
And I say this as an Obama supporter who's dumped a shit load of cash into his campaign this cycle. Time to show and prove.
March 7, 2008 1:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
Just what I was going to say John SFL! I called Nutter's office yesterday to ask if he planned on running for re-election ever: thw woman who answered gave me the fax machine number in his office to send that question to. If he hasn't convinced the people in his own administration, he's gonna need a whole lot more persuasiveness for the people whom he owes for his job.
March 7, 2008 1:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
Tried to post before-- but will try again
I have lived in Philly and have a couple doubts on this one.
1) Philly may be a machine town- but it is also a Black one. I think African Americans come out for Obama like they did in SC- I don't care who he endorsed for mayor
2) Philly is University town.. These students may not have voted in the mayoral race- but you can bet the student population at Penn (and very Black) Drexel and Temple will be voting in droves for Obama.
3) The outer suburbs of Philly- the main line- are outside of the mayor's reach and are exactly Obama type supporters- liberal, highly educated and affluent.
4) The power of philly politics does not really extend beyond the city itself- the west of the state does its own thing and Pittsburgh hates Philly.
(that having been said the west and Pittsburgh are tough places for Obama- they are either very much Hillary demographics or the crazy militia types- they have a saying in PA- it's Philly in the east, Pittsburgh in the west, and Alabama in between- lots of militia and KKK types live in PA... go figure...)
March 7, 2008 1:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks for the insight. I think PA will be a very difficult contest for Obama. Here in Missouri, Hillary was snookered with a really puny GOTV effort put on by the local and state Dems who endorsed her. That won't happen in PA.
It means that Obama has to work for the Dems who live in the more conservative areas. I estimate he would need about a month to do that.
Any thoughts you have are most appreciated.
March 7, 2008 1:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
Golux, I work in Philly and live in the western burbs and agree with your analysis. Mayor Nutter is not an 0ld-time Philly pol and I don't think he controls much of the local street network. Broad swaths of Philly are good territory for Obama, as are parts of the suburbs. I think he will have a tough time in the middle of the state. Not sure about Pittsburgh. And while we are listing Philadelphia colleges and universities, don't forget LaSalle.
March 7, 2008 2:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
This really is a non-story. I think the term reverberating is a little over the top. Maybe you should get the clintons to change their talking points greg. Reverberating? That's plain silly.
March 7, 2008 1:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
my point was that this is an interesting theory being floated by philly bloggers who know what they're talking about. it wasn't meant as any huge deal
March 7, 2008 1:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
See my post above. I get the general gist and importance of the story. I was talking about your "maniac" baiting. Didn't really see the point of it.
March 7, 2008 1:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hey where is the coverage of THIS story?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OOLEK2lr3CM
March 7, 2008 1:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
Greg's totally justified in reporting this the way he did.
Jeebus, Kos said as much about So-Cal after the CA primary. The reality is that big city mayors usually have very effecient GOTV machines; that's not bias--it's reality.
So harden the f*ck up and donate, or phone-bank, or do something else constructive. At this rate Billy Glad's going show up and start his usual smug self-satisfied postings, and I know we don't want that...
March 7, 2008 1:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama picks another loser. First Powers, now Chaka. Hillary will win Penn by over 20%. Obama has to actually answer questions from the press now that the Obama love affair is over. Obama voted for Dick Cheney's Energy for goodness sake. The worst vote in History!
March 7, 2008 2:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
With 7 weeks to campaign? I'll take that bet.
March 7, 2008 2:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hyperbole much?
Of all the votes in American History that is your example of the worst?
Obama looked at the funds relegated towards clean energy out-weighed the negatives.
Ms. Clinton may disagree with that policy, but at least Obama didn't give anyone authorization to invade another country on false pretenses. Twice.
March 7, 2008 2:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, if she does and if she wins the nomination as a result, she will have my vote in the GE. That said, I think that you are delusional to imagine that her lead in PA will be >20%. She has not won an election yet by the same margin of her advantage two weeks out. Her current lead is only 15%, and that will certainly shrink over the next few months.
March 7, 2008 2:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
Neither candidate has enough delegates to put them over the top, so Obama being slightly ahead is irrelevant....especially since Hillary is now slightly ahead in the popular vote. It's going to be up to the super-delegates, plus the Michigan/Florida re-do's.
As far as Mississippi and Wyoming are concerned.....they won't change things much, simply not enough delegates. Pennsylvania is what everyone is looking at, because it is a key battleground state. Speaking of which; Obama hasn't won any big battleground states. Hillary has won all the big battlegrounds, including Ohio, Texas, and Florida. Pennsylvania is another she will likely win. She won New York and California... but they generally are considered Democratic strong-holds. It's these other big prizes, the ones that can swing red or blue, that will really matter in the fall. Hillary is stronger in these states, and can beat McCain because of it. How can Obama win the general election without holding any of these states? The short answer is....he can't. He could lose Ohio and Texas, maybe Florida and Pennsylvania to McCain. The super-delegates will have to consider this reality. The primaries exist in a vacuum. Obama's delegate lead is unspendable currency in the general election. Hillary's wins in the key battleground states is spendable currancy, they translate into potential to beat McCain in the real fight ahead. The primaries are the minor leagues, Hillary is a much stronger candidate in the important contest against McCain.
March 7, 2008 2:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hillary is ahead in the popular vote? Can you supply a link to that affect please?
March 7, 2008 2:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
Good grief!
Find a primary for any state. Write down totals for Dem and Rep leading candidate.
Find the general for the same state. Write down the totals for Dem and Rep candidates.
Compare the two.
I'm not going to shout although I am a bit inclined to shout. There is a HUGE difference between the two numbers. Why? Because a LOT LESS people come out to vote in a primary.
If you're smart, you get a great GOTV operation in the primary so you can turn out voters who will vote for you. If you can do that, you will win the primary.
Hillary thought she could do that just with media buys and a bit of campaigning. This won't work against a volunteer, grass roots campaign like Obama set up where the primary was treated more like the general in terms of GOTV.
The ONLY concern I've had with Obama's turnout is how the females and older votes who turn out to vote in the primary go reliably to Hillary and not to Obama. That concerns me in the rest of the primaries, not in the general.
I'm clarifying this because I could have written things up without clarity--or even completely wrong--and I want to make sure I'm getting my point across.
But let's not keep up this damned pretence that what happens in the primary translates over to the general. It doesn't work that way.
March 7, 2008 2:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
You don't know a darned thing about Philadelphia politics? Well, I do, since I live here. Michael Nutter does not have much of an organization. He was just elected, and his own election actually showed that the city's cancerous machine here is in terminal condition. While these people keep living in the past, the ward leaders are alive and well, for what it's worth, and doing more or less as they please; African-Americans and Obamaite whites are well represented among them. All of the above, however, is barely relevant in the contest between Hillary and Obama, as distinguished from, say, the selection of traffic court judges. Given the very strong sentiment for Obama here, as in every other big city with big numbers of blacks, students and yuppies, I can't imagine that Michael Nutter's endorsement is going to change any votes.
March 7, 2008 2:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks for the info. It seems to me there are a lot of folks in Philly who can come out to vote in the primary. In 2004, over a half million voted Dem in the primary; in the 2004 primary, Philly only had a bit over 94,000 Dem voters. That's a heckuva lot of Dem voters who could be persuaded to head down to the polling place to cast a vote for Obama.
Now that Hillary is wise to this, it may not work as well in Philly as it did here in St. Louis. But Obama's folks have a lot of experience now and can drive things effectively.
March 7, 2008 3:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
On July 27, 2004, Obama told the Chicago Tribune on Iraq: "There's not much of a difference between my position and George Bush's position at this stage." In his book, The Audacity of Hope, published in 2006, Obama wrote, "...on the merits I didn't consider the case against war to be cut-and- dried." And, in 2006, Obama clearly said, "I'm always careful to say that I was not in the Senate, so perhaps the reason I thought the war was such a bad idea was that I didn't have the benefit of US intelligence. And for those who did, it might have led to a different set of choices."
March 7, 2008 2:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Now that Obama is being asked tough questions by the Press he is sounding very much like a little child that is wondering why everybody is picking on him. He is going down in Flames.
March 7, 2008 2:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
You can talk all you want. Your candidate is going down, no matter how much she screams and moans about being called a name.
By the way, I'd like to give a shout out to Bill Clinton (and I guess Hillary, too, since this is part of her 35 years of experience). Thanks for passing on taking out Bin Laden in 1998. That proved to be a great decision.
And Hako, Obama is ahead of her by 600,000 votes. What is the problem with Clintonista math, anyway?
March 7, 2008 2:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
Since you want to give Bill a shout out-
The Clinton years were the best in our countries history, record Economy, no wars, Deficit turned into a huge surplus. But of course a four year old Obama supporter would not know that. Should you be watching Sesame street instead of Blogging?
March 7, 2008 4:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
Among the Bush-Cheney energy bill's provisions is an exemption for a method of gas drilling invented by Halliburton -- VicePresident Cheney's former employer -- that would prevent the EPA
from regulating it under the Safe Drinking Water Act. I for one think safe drinking water is very important. I guess you are a typical big money Obama supporter who only drinks bottled water.
March 7, 2008 2:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hako wrote:
Really? Clinton is ahead in the popular vote? Please cite. (not that it has any bearing on the nomination)
Are you honestly suggesting that Obama won't carry NY or CA?
It's Hillary who will not carry the "purple states" and will have to depend on Kerry's 50+1 strategy to will in November.
Clinton, at best will pick up a handful of delegates if she wins PA. Not even enough to cover her losses in WY & MS.
March 7, 2008 2:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
Greg,
Honestly, I've tried to avoid claims of bias on this site, because I don't believe that you're personally biased against Obama.
But, just for grins, I'd like you to compare the number of posts that are "bad for Hillary" versus those that are "bad for Obama." I'm betting Obama comes up on the short end probably three out of every four posts, on average.
Again, I don't think this is because you're biased. I think it's because you're locked into a method of reporting that breathlessly reports every attack in this race (and Hillary is doing 90% of the attacking), with a tone of "Hillary said what?! Oh, no she din't!"
Granted, you usually toss in a clarifying sentence at the end of the post. But, after your headline (Obama Attacked as Lying About Nafta, e.g.) and a full recitation of the charges, this simply doesn't cut it.
This is basically the type of reporting that we all came to the blogs to get away from. It really would be helpful if you could get away from this he said/she said style. It unfairly helps Hillary, because she's working the media by throwing out bullshit attack after bullshit attack (again, see "NAFTAgate") and all of these attacks are constituting the basic coverage of this race.
Spend a little more time analyzing the claims, and less rushing these distortions into print, and I'm sure that reasonable readers will stop claiming bias on your part.
March 7, 2008 3:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
Greg,
You are correct that Obama endorsed Fattah. However, you're missing a very large piece of the story. The **reason** why Nutter endorsed Clinton was because Obama did not call him on election night to congratulate him. Both Hillary and Bill did (separately) and Obama did not. I have talked to numerous people inside team Nutter and this story has been corroborated across the board.
There is going to be major backlash against Nutter for this. In fact, there are organizers right now planning protests of the mayor that will send a pretty strong shot across his bow.
Nutter is riding a big wave of popularity following his victory, but he will be very out of step with his constituents in the battle between Obama and Clinton. Philadelphia will be Obama country.
March 7, 2008 4:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
As a native Philadelphian, I can tell you that Hillary Clinton probably will take the city. It won't be a huge win, but she'll take it.
March 7, 2008 5:13 PM | Reply | Permalink