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Obama Catching Up To Hillary On Super-Delegates
A review of the super-delegate math by Bloomberg News shows just how quickly Barack Obama has caught up to Hillary Clinton. Among members of Congress and governors, Hillary only leads by a 103-96 margin, meaning that her lead of just under 40 supers comes almost entirely from Democratic National Committee members.
Meanwhile, Obama has done a better job than Hillary at picking up those supporters in the last few months. Since Iowa, he has gained 53 endorsements from the elected super-delegates, compared to only 12 for Hillary. And even after Hillary's comeback on March 4, Obama has gained nine total super-delegates to Hillary's one.
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Bye bye Hillary.
March 14, 2008 9:19 AM | Reply | Permalink
Sounds to me like more and more superdelegates -- especially elected officials -- are realizing that Obama will have a very positive impact on down ballot races while running with Hillary at the top of the ticket will be toxic.
It appears they are also recognizing that Obama believes in building the party (witness his active support for Foster in winning Hastert's seat and his whirlwind schedule supporting Dem candidates in 2006), while Hillary could care less about anything other than her own ambitions (witness everything she has done over the past month, plus spending tens of millions of dollars on her own reelection in 2006 against a no-name opponent rather than spreading the wealth to candidates in tough, decisive contests).
March 14, 2008 9:21 AM | Reply | Permalink
Wait, Eric Kleefeld. You Obama supporters were against superdelegates because they were anti-Democratic. Now you are cheering the fact that they are leaning towards Obama?
I am telling you. There is no one as hypocrite as an Obama supporter. And Kleefeld is the best example.
March 14, 2008 9:23 AM | Reply | Permalink
The difference is, the superdelegates supporting Obama aren't going against the results of the primaries. With Clinton, she depends upon them to overrule the results thus far. For further reading, see almost every other article on this subject.
March 14, 2008 9:36 AM | Reply | Permalink
Cheering? well Cheering that they aren't going to steal the election from the voters sure.
March 14, 2008 9:37 AM | Reply | Permalink
Eric's now an Obama supporter?!? What rock you been hidin' undah??
March 14, 2008 9:40 AM | Reply | Permalink
Crazytalk, dude.
I'm not aware of anyone at TPM who has taken any position on what the superdelegates should do, although Josh has been pretty clear on what he thinks they are, and are not, going to do.
What most of Obama's supporters seem think they should do is go with the candidate with the lead in pledged delegates. Which they appear to be doing.
What this particular Obama supporter thinks they should do is go with the candidate with the pledged delegate and popular vote lead, with due allowance made for states that don't release official voting totals and states where no valid election was held.
Oh, and btw, as of Monday, Hillary's net superdelegate lead since March 4 is zero, zip, nada. New York's constitution does provide for the replacement of the liutenant governor if the lt gov steps into the governor's shoes. Patterson was already a Hillary supporter, Spitzer is gone, and Hillary's down one.
March 14, 2008 9:42 AM | Reply | Permalink
Well I can only speak for myself as an Obama supporter, but I think superdelegates are undemocratic ONLY IF they significantly go against the will of the voters.
The fact that Obama is getting more supers right now matches the trend in his acquisition of individual votes and state delegates.
If Hillary was gaining in popular vote and delegates, or went into the convention with a significant lead in these counts, I'd expect the superdelegates to support her.
March 14, 2008 9:44 AM | Reply | Permalink
One other thing on republicans accepting obama as the nominee. The below website is a republican election website that I follow. I totally don't agree with the guys politics, but he is usually spot on with prognosticating elections. He is figuring the november election estimates with obama as the nominee.
http://www.electionprojection.com/
Now if only the dem establishment would shut the train wreck known as the clintons' campaign down.
March 14, 2008 9:24 AM | Reply | Permalink
I am having a bad morning this was posted on the wrong thread. However, the point is applicable to this thread as well.
Please Madame Speaker shut the clintons' train wreck down. It's a nightmare to watch. We need to concentrate on november, not watch the clintons try to tear down the party and run again in 2012.
March 14, 2008 9:33 AM | Reply | Permalink
I second that. I've read that site before in prior elections and yes the author is Republican and that clearly shows in his commentary but his polling work (as best I can tell) is excellent and avoids bias.
March 14, 2008 9:42 AM | Reply | Permalink
For the Clinton campaign, it was originally a matter of delegates. But when Obama overtook her in pledged delegates, it became a matter of who could "the big states" and who could win those unimportant states with their undemocratic election process. But when it broke that contrary to conventional wisdom, New York and California are not crucial swing states that need a firm hand to make blue in November, it became a matter of the popular vote. But when the notion of a Clinton popular vote became increasingly unlikely, the campaign began to stump on superdelegates.
But now, with Clinton's superdelegate lead diminishing rapidly, one has to wonder what new logical wonders the Clinton camp will start weaving out of thin air.
Personally, I think it's ultimately going to boil down to Hillary arguing, "I deserve this. It's mine. Give it to me."
March 14, 2008 9:37 AM | Reply | Permalink
If you've been listening to Mark Penn and TPM, it's now the winner of the Pennsylvania primary should be given the nomination.
March 14, 2008 11:59 AM | Reply | Permalink
Don't these super delegates understand Hillary is owed the Presidency? How dare they, or that young punk Obama, get between her and what is owed to her.
She doesn't need the super delegates anyway. Nor does she need the pledged delegates. She's going all the way to the convention one way or the other and if she doesn't get what she wants she is going to throw a temper tantrum!!!
Seriously though, I think she has two goals in mind at this point:
1) Make Obama unelectable
2) lay the groundwork for her 2012 run
You see when Obama loses because of Clinton sabotage Hillary will be able to come back in 2012 and say, "You see? That is what happens when you vote for Obama, vote for me this time."
March 14, 2008 9:40 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yep I agree with you 1000 percent. Any ideas on who is a good bet in 2012 as the leading Anti-Clintons candidate? I want to start working on my firewall and set the ground work for 2012.
March 14, 2008 9:47 AM | Reply | Permalink
Please, don't be a premature pessimist. As angry as I am about Clinton's pro-McCain campaign and as anxious as I am about the long-term impact, I still think there's an excellent chance that in 2012, we'll all be working for President Obama's reelection.
March 14, 2008 9:53 AM | Reply | Permalink
You're right its probably bad karma anyway. I'll stop.
March 14, 2008 9:58 AM | Reply | Permalink
I, too, remain cautiously optimistic.
I laid out what Clinton is TRYING to do, but I don't think she will succeed. Her advisors are just not competent enough to get the job done. So I think we are very likely to see a President Obama come January. Now, if the question is will Hillary run against him in 2012 the answer is, I don't know. I wouldn't be surprised, but a lot can happen in four years.
March 14, 2008 10:00 AM | Reply | Permalink
me likey
March 14, 2008 9:41 AM | Reply | Permalink
It's good to see Bloomberg and others in the media catching up with reality.
truthseeker-- at this point in the race, Hillary simply cannot catch up in pledged delegates. Obama has won more states and is ahead in the popular vote. And, it is increasingly clear that Obama is the candidate who will have the coattails to help down-ticket candidates, especially in red or swing states.
The combination of these factors make him the best choice for supers. Of course, those who choose to vote for Hillary because their constituents did so (like Barbara Boxer), I can understand and respect that. (In fact, if all the supers were forced to vote the way their constituents did, I think Obama would be even farther ahead!)
Hillary's only hope now is that the superdelegates will be dumb enough to buy her "only the person who wins the Ohio and/or PA primary can win the GE" argument. That combined with her considerable power and sway within the Democratic establishment. This is about old politics versus new politics.
March 14, 2008 9:43 AM | Reply | Permalink
Can I just add-- I love this blog but it is really tiresome to have some folks constantly accuse Eric, Greg et al. of being biased toward one candidate or the other.
March 14, 2008 9:45 AM | Reply | Permalink
I agree. I'm a rabid Obama partisan (What? You couldn't tell from my other postings?) but I feel that TPM has been very fair and that there is no hidden agenda other than posters expressing their honest views and observations.
March 14, 2008 9:56 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yep, it really is a waste of time.
March 14, 2008 9:56 AM | Reply | Permalink
Agreed
March 14, 2008 10:05 AM | Reply | Permalink
That's why the Clinton's are now turning the conversation to the caucus delegates they claim they can steal from Obama - they need to find a new pool of delegates they can point to as the means by which they will catch up with Obama, since their SD plan is not going so well.
Eventually they will put physics professors on conference calls, who will explain that delegates could theoretically cross-over from a parallel universe where Hillary is winning the race for the nomination. Her campaign will then argue that the primary season should be extended until the date on which the optimal conditions for such cross-over exist, so that all voices are heard and no one is disenfranchised.
March 14, 2008 9:47 AM | Reply | Permalink
That made me laugh out loud, heraldsquare.
Thank you for the smile. :O)
March 14, 2008 9:52 AM | Reply | Permalink
March 14, 2008 9:48 AM | Reply | Permalink
As I said, that is what she is TRYING to do, but like everything else her campaign has done, it isn't working.
March 14, 2008 10:04 AM | Reply | Permalink
The one superd endorsement I'd really like to see soon is Murtha for Obama. The Iraq war is his tentpole issue, and that makes it a no-brainer for him. Murtha could help Obama in western PA. It would also be great if Richardson would finally come out as an Obama supporter (we know it's true). As a final thought, I believe all supers should be free to vote as they see fit. I also believe that in the sense of political expediency and the future of the party they will make the right decision. The Age of Clinton has passed, on to the future.
March 14, 2008 9:49 AM | Reply | Permalink
The Democratic Convention Watch blog has been great and accurate all year on this stuff, and they have Obama actually winning the "elected officials" super delegate race right now, with 11 governors to her 10, 15 Senators to her 13, and 71 Reps to her 72.
She has 10 "DPL" (dem party leaders, I guess?) to his 4 and 139 DNCers to her 104
March 14, 2008 9:51 AM | Reply | Permalink
Truthseeker wrote:
I am telling you. There is no one as hypocrite as an Obama supporter. And Kleefeld is the best example.
Obama supporters do not make the claim that the supers are undemocratic. The issue has always been about using them as the only way to win.
March 14, 2008 9:54 AM | Reply | Permalink
I agree. If the Democrats don't win the White House in November it will clearly be Clinton's fault, due to her crude campaign tactics, and no amount of revisionist history will let her become a nominee in 2012.
March 14, 2008 9:59 AM | Reply | Permalink
Hillary supporters are asking superdelegates to overturn the results of the primaries. It's the only way she wins. Even if she picks up 60 pledged delegates with big wins in PA and a FL revote Obama will still be up by 90 or so.
There is some discussion on this at my blog post:
http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/2008/03/hillary-wins-nomination-via-su.php
March 14, 2008 10:01 AM | Reply | Permalink
The Dems are once again proving their ability to collectively piss in the wind and call the blow back rain.
Congrats on a job well done!
March 14, 2008 10:17 AM | Reply | Permalink
That was a funny and accurate description.
March 14, 2008 10:30 AM | Reply | Permalink
as long as one candidate wins both the popular vote and the pledged delegates vote, there's no question. can we get the candidates to agree on that?
March 14, 2008 10:25 AM | Reply | Permalink
Those super delegates who swing to Obama now, after knowing of his true beliefs and ties to his, pastor Wright - who now sounds more and more like a muslim preacher at a hate filled mosque, NOT a Christian pastor, may pay a price for those votes later.
I'm starting to wonder if Wright's church isn't a front for the Muslim teachings since its mainly anti-American hate speach filled with herey and blasphemy. That coupled with their admiration of Farrakhan, all should give everyone a cause for pause. We've been wanting to know Obama better. Now we're getting more insight into how he thinks. We got a peak at how Michelle thinks, with her statement "the first time I'm proud to be an american" statement. I thought at first it was just a mis-speak. Now I see this is what Obama's church preaches on a regular basis; Anti-American Hate.
Obama sat in that church over twenty years. He cannot now claim he renounces and be credible.
Rae
March 14, 2008 10:32 AM | Reply | Permalink
Baaaaahhhhhh!
What's your religion?
March 14, 2008 10:38 AM | Reply | Permalink
How dare you.
This is just slanderous and blatantly false. My family knows Obama and you could not be more wrong. He is a better, kinder, smarter and more patriotic man than most...even in the midst of this horrific campaign and the full glare of how nasty politics can be.
This mean-spirited goading and propaganda-spreading crap is why I agree with Michelle sometimes. Americans like you can repulse and shock me (also, Americans voting for Bush in '04? Not proud of America that day).
I am happy to see a trend that veers towards HONESTY, DECENCY and HOPE for the first time since Bill Clinton took office. Makes me suddenly proud to be an American and a Democrat again.
Hillary herself would probably condemn you for speaking like that "on her behalf." Disgusting.
March 14, 2008 10:59 AM | Reply | Permalink
That's just rae doing her typical clinton garbage. By the way on your point about clinton condemning her, nah she wouldn't, as far as I know. It's the archie bunker strategy.
March 14, 2008 11:10 AM | Reply | Permalink
Well said! Thank you.
I would further add this question of readers: Of those of you who attend religious services, how many of you have agreed with everything your priest, minister, rabbi, imam, or pastor ever said in a sermon?
Obama has made clear where he stands and his love of our country. And, unlike McCain, he has not accepted the endorsement and active support of religious "leaders" who spread hatred against other religions.
March 14, 2008 11:12 AM | Reply | Permalink
.
.
.
How dare you.
This is just slanderous and blatantly false. My family knows Obama and you could not be more wrong. He is a better, kinder, smarter and more patriotic man than most...even in the midst of this horrific campaign and the full glare of how nasty politics can be.
This mean-spirited goading and propaganda-spreading crap is why I agree with Michelle sometimes.
How dare I?
How dare YOU! You call yourself an American, while at the same time, you say you agree with Michelle Obama sometimes?
I dare because this guy, this unvetted guy, has been sitting in this mosque-disguised-as-a-church for over 20 years. The first time I heard such hate filled heresy and blasphemy, I would have been out of that church, looking for a new one.
Yet your guy sat there, week after week, eating up this hate filled speech. And don't tell me he didn't agree with it when his own wife has stated publicly a softer peddle of it with her "For the first time in my life I'm proud to be an American" remark.
That is total bullshit. YOu can't hate America while running to be its president. You might not like some policy and you maybe even hate it, but you don't then turn your hatred on the entire country at large - which of course includes the citizens. That preacher hates whites. Its obvious.
Its disgusting. Obama will never get elected now that people are seeing what he's about. This will only get worse in the general election. As they said, if you thought the swift boat attacks were bad, it was child's play compared to what they plan against barry obama in the general election.
I'm not willing to let my party lose another general election because a bunch of mindless goosebumped sheep are enamored with a guy who gives a good speech which runs tingles up their legs.
How dare YOU! YOu love the guy so much? Start a fan club. But he won't be my president. He won't be our president. Not with those views. He speaks the exact same crap the mosque that teach terroist teach - hate against America. I think his pastor is a muslim in disguise for a hidden agenda.
Rae
March 14, 2008 11:28 AM | Reply | Permalink
What's your religion? Baaaahhhhh!
March 14, 2008 11:34 AM | Reply | Permalink
Also, you forgot that his middle name is hussein and that he attended a terrorist madrassa in Indonesia and his head spins around and he's a martian in disguise and I'll think of somemore.
It's the archie bunker strategy in full bloom. Good job rae.
March 14, 2008 11:36 AM | Reply | Permalink
Uh...Security?
This cracker is downright scary.
March 14, 2008 11:43 AM | Reply | Permalink
.
.
EmmaP wrote:
Nahh, Obama and his parishioners aren't racist.
Thank you, Emma. You proved my point.
Rae
March 14, 2008 12:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
RaeKKK in the Hood!
March 14, 2008 12:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
Whatever dude.
It isn't like Hillary doesn't have some wacky religious background herself.
http://www.motherjones.com/news/feature/2007/09/hillarys-prayer.html
March 14, 2008 11:06 AM | Reply | Permalink
i'm starting to wonder if you have a serious mental disability.
March 14, 2008 11:16 AM | Reply | Permalink
Starting to?
March 14, 2008 11:37 AM | Reply | Permalink
Why not just say it Rae - Obama was supposed to be the 20th hijacker on 9/11 but al-Qaeda decided to have him run for president instead.
March 14, 2008 11:26 AM | Reply | Permalink
Well according to his pastor, America is responsible for 9/11 and deserved it. Apparantly its what Obama believes too.
March 14, 2008 12:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Somehow, I'm having a hard time taking the alarm expressed by all of Hillary's most irrationally rabid supporters very seriously.
He goes to church and therefore shares every belief, and endorses every statement made by his pastor? Does that mean that there are no devout Catholics using birth control? No Southern Baptists, dancing, playing cards and having pre-marital sex? Does that mean every Methodist believes homosexuality is a sin?
But hey, Sean Hannity, Bill-O and all the other rich white guys at Fox are totally with you on this one, so you must be right.
March 14, 2008 11:34 AM | Reply | Permalink
RaeKKK in the Hood!
March 14, 2008 12:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
Right, pointing out the manifold problems and injustices in this country, and demanding change, is hateful. Whereas shouting "America uber alles" and starting or supporting illegal wars of aggression is a wonderful thing.
I hold out little hope for this country as long as so many of its inhabitants continue to live in Topsy-Turvy Land. Pride goeth before a fall.
March 14, 2008 10:51 AM | Reply | Permalink
How many more super delegates backing Obama will it take for Clinton to throw in the towel?
If you believe that Obama will maintain his lead of 150 pledged delegates, then he will need an additional 116 (34% of remaining) to reach the magic 2025 total. On the other hand, Clinton will need another 228 (66% of remaining). This is based on CBSNews delegate counts.
So my guess is that the breaking point for Clinton is somewhere around 75 more (net) supers for Obama. At that point Clinton would have to win nearly all (85%) of remaining super delegates.
March 14, 2008 11:08 AM | Reply | Permalink
Ok clintonistas. Please explain for us what facts are wrong in this article, a must read for all.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/robert-creamer/helping-to-elect-other-de_b_91454.html
I wish people really remembered what happened in the 90's, as opposed to the clintons' triangulated version. Wake up please, will you!!!!
March 14, 2008 11:17 AM | Reply | Permalink
THIS IS EXCELLENT NEWS!! FOR HILLARY!!!
March 14, 2008 11:19 AM | Reply | Permalink
Make that 10 SD's for Obama since March 4th...
Wisconsin SD announced today in support of Obama (h/t Halperin).
http://thepage.time.com/2008/03/14/many-superdelegates-to-remain-uncommitted/
March 14, 2008 11:22 AM | Reply | Permalink
Bottom line, if Obama's beating Clinton on superdelegate recruits SINCE Texas and Ohio...the race is over. Clinton's racist Ohio/Pennsylvania policy is at odds with any smart SD strategy--I've got to think a lot of those career Dems are genuinely offended by her willingness to drive a stake through the heart of any and all Democratic party principles just to WIN.
March 14, 2008 11:25 AM | Reply | Permalink
"...Hillary's comeback on March 4..."?
Must have missed that. I thought Obama had at least as much of a delegate lead now as he had on March 3rd.
March 14, 2008 1:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
Good to see you, Rae. I missed your outrageous, pretend outrage.
March 14, 2008 4:24 PM | Reply | Permalink