Tomorrow's Clinton:

Texas does not count. Just another inflated boutique state.

Made me laugh. The `best political team` couldn't even get this one right - the political ticker right now has it 60-40 for Clinton.

So Bill Clinton trumpeted the need for HIllary to win Texas in order to go be the nominee, "without it I don't think she can be," he said. Well, she lost, and it won't matter especially considering her campaign's constant moving of the goal posts and rules (according to them). Josh's analysis today of the Washington Post interview makes that even more clear.

Here's one link but I'm sure it wouldn't take much to find more because it was the headline for so long before and after Texas and Ohio:http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/Vote2008/story?id=4318311

More than anything this is huge message to the super delegates. He's won another big state. Hillary's big selling point is the big state talking point especially with Pennsylvania coming up (although they're stingingly silent on North Carolina that has almost the same amount of delegates). So all of the pundits and headlines have a New Hampshire situation on their hands but called Texas too soon for Hillary.

I know that it will probably be ignored and all of the political analysis, punditry, headlines that spouted the significance of a win in both Texas and Ohio will not be taken back. Hillary will dismiss it and spin it in Bosnia fashion and her surrogates will too.

As hard as the Clinton campaign tried to block fair counting in Texas with intimidation and lots of lawyers in a Bush/Rove 2000 Florida way, they lost. If anything, I see parallels to Gore's loss in Florida and how it might have been if things were done fairly. Now, the super delegates must start stepping forward at a faster pace to stop Hillary's mission to destroy the Democratic Party's chances for reclaiming the presidency in 2008.

I'm a huge Obama supporter, but statements like this from his campaign worry me:

"Today's record-shattering turnout sends a clear message that the American people are ready for change in Washington and new leadership in the White House that will stand up for working families."

I realize we're trying to lure the mythical blue-collar vote, but I deplore the old-politics-style exaltation of "working families" as though the rest of us are somehow less worthy or even deviant.

CS, I'm afraid your snark detector is getting a little fuzzy this late on a Saturday night :)

Look at the screen name again (but for god's sake do NOT look at the avatar!!) and re-read the post with a memory of Mr. Penn's silly statements over the last couple months :-D

"political ticker"?? How about the netroots in TX who've been obsessively covering this all day. It's the coverage delmoi cited one minute before your bizarre post.

http://www.burntorangereport.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=5484

Hey, guess what, guys and gals. Hillary has too many negatives to be elected in this or any other year.

She voted for Bush's War on Iraq in 2002 and never apologized. I hate her, Joe Lieberman, George W. Bush, and Dick Cheney. If I have to, and only because of the Supreme Court, I will hold my nose and vote for her.

For Barack Obama, however, I will proudly work my ass off to get him elected.

That's a big difference. I will reluctantly vote for Hillary if she is the Democratic nominee, but I will actively and enthusiastically support Barack Obama for President.

What's this

the Clinton campaign's widespread attempts to prevent many Texans from participating in their district convention

What did the Clinton camp do? Are they really doing vote surpression??!!

"Campaigning is Hard, Caucusing is Easy" - Hillary Clinton

HIllary need to win Texas and Ohio in order to go be the nominee, "without it I don't think she can be" - Bill Clinton

I have no skills to do the following, but if anyone with internet savvy would do it I believe it would be very helpful as a tracking devise to show the delegate reality:

Create a map of the states and territories showing each state as the number of NET delegates won for each state, plus for each candidate who netted the most delegates. This map would show both Nevada and Texas as Obama states won. The result would show clearly the NET Obama lead of the 150-160 pledged delegates.

It would demonstrate in a very stark manner how impossible it would be for Clinton to catch up in pledged delegates in the remaining 10 contests.

This color coded map would then show Obama with an even overwhelming win in states and territories after all isn't this a race for delegates?

It would be a detailed tracking of the pledged delegates without the superdelegates.

Please someone use their skills to create such a map and post it and share it with the Obama campaign to share with the media.

I do not believe there are any caucuses in the general election. So I take a primary win in Texas as a win hor Hillary. Obama has money to burn and he wisely uses that money to get out the caucus voters. He will not have that advantage in the general election. In addition, almost all states are winner take all in the general election. In that type of count Hillary would be ahead in delegates, since she has won the most populous states.
Disenfranchising Florida and Michigan voters is a huge mistake for the general election. The Republicans handled that matter much better.
My conclusion is that the democratic primary system is severley flawed.
Right now it appears McCain will probably win whether it is Obama alone or Hillary alone.
That is troubling since there will probably be an influence on the Iraq war , Supreme court etc.
Right now I can only envision Obama and Hillary winning as a joint ticket. (Who knows, P/VP for 2 years and switch)
So bashing HRC ends up being pro-McCain and bashing Obama is pro-McCain and this primary season is almost going to be meaningless in terms of prediting the general election winner.
If you do not want a McCain presidence, I would urge you to stop bashing HRC and Obama and put pressure on both of their campaigns for a co-presidency, in whatever form.

I have no skills to do the following, but if anyone with internet savvy would do it I believe it would be very helpful as a tracking devise to show the delegate reality:

Create a map of the states and territories showing each state as the number of NET delegates won for each state, plus for each candidate who netted the most delegates. This map would show both Nevada and Texas as Obama states won. The result would show clearly the NET Obama lead of the 150-160 pledged delegates.

It would demonstrate in a very stark manner how impossible it would be for Clinton to catch up in pledged delegates in the remaining 10 contests.

This color coded map would then show Obama with an even overwhelming win in states and territories after all isn't this a race for delegates?

It would be a detailed tracking of the pledged delegates without the superdelegates.

Please someone use their skills to create such a map and post it and share it with the Obama campaign to share with the media.

So it's time we got honest with ourselves about what Hillary wants to do. If she gets primaries put in place in Florida and Michigan, and wins enough delegates/superdelegates to be nominated, fine. But even if those contests are held, if they fail to bring her over the top, she'll argue to the convention that the process was still unfair, and that as the best candidate (most obnoxious one at least) she must be nominated anyway.

If the convention doesn't nominate her, she'll claim (possibly in court) that the convention was unfair also, and she needs to be the nominee nonetheless. Maybe through election day and beyond.

Scorched earth has also been used by the Obama camp (many intermediaries used) against HRC:

1)HRC should drop out, put out by Dodd, etc., and then later retracted by Obama.

2)MSNBC- Hillary is pimping Chelsea.

3)Hillary is a monster

4)I can publicize my tax returns before you can.

5)attendees at her rally- " Hillary, Iron my shirt"

I know . Maybe Obama's people were not behind all these actions. But probably more than you would like to believe. McCain is loving it. Again a joint ticket is probably the only answer.

where's the TPM headline?:

OBAMA WINS TEXAS.

?

What Eric Kleefeld, official Obama-supporter from TPM, won't tell you, is that Hillary got many more votes in Texas, populraly speaking. Obama supporters love to rub popular vote in your face, but when they win an event with a minority, they are quick to joyfully brag about it.

Can someone please answer a couple of questions? As of midnight, only 56% of the delegates were reported to have been selected, and I have heard of no reporting since then. Does that mean that many caucuses are reconvening today in order to select the remaining 44%? What exactly has been going on between midnight and whatever is supposed to happen today? Or is it just a matter of certain caucus sites not calling in their results last night? I'm confused.

What Eric Kleefeld, official Obama-supporter from TPM, won't tell you, is that Hillary got many more votes in Texas, populraly speaking. Obama supporters love to rub popular vote in your face, but when they win an event with a minority, they are quick to joyfully brag about it.

In what sense besides the most narrow technical sense were caucus votes not "popular"?

We all were just people who voted and then linedup and caucused.

Now how the hell that translates into not being popular votes is way beyond me.

Okay, so explain this to me, Bill says Texas is must win. Chelsea says Texas is must win. Carville says they have to win Texas or it is over. Obama clearly wins Texas, by 5 delegates. Carville packs his bags and leaves Washington. The media still refuses to admit Obama won Texas. Hillary ignores all of their campaign's previous statements about having to win Texas. How's that work again..?

My magical time machine commentary, for those interested:

http://www.thepersonalispolitical.com/2008/03/obama-clearly-won-texas-its-official.html

Certainly sounds like Hillary is planning a scorched-earth campaign (give me what I want or you'll all be SORRY!!!) by taking this all the way to the credentials committee at the convention. Who I sincerely hope tell her to go pound sand, that she's trying to reverse a decision made well before the primaries that she agreed was acceptable to her campaign.

Seems to me the most likely result of her declaration of intent is that the superdelegates will get off their asses sooner rather than later and come out for Obama in numbers that would make any temper tantrum in front of the credentials committee a moot point, since by that point even seating the full MI and FL delegations won't give her a lead.

Please let me be right about this...

My husband commented last night (he could care less about politics) that he saw HRC in a clip and she was going on about her determination to fight to the end. I was on the computer, he walked in and said, "Wow, I just saw the real HRC on TV, and she is a ball buster (sorry guys). I just don't want someone not willing to compromise in the White House". That is how HRC is now perceived: a take no survivors my way or the highway type of person. A sad decline to a political career. I actually supported her, but cannot any longer.

other than the fact that they decided to go to bed and promised to resume reporting today. So far, nothing

From what I can tell, they were waiting on some precincts in Tarrant County last night when they went to bed. I suspect they are still asleep - possibly - they were up almost all night.

The next thing that happens is the votes are certified and then we have a state convention in Austin this summer to pick the delegates to go to the national.

Which is proportional, based on the votes last night.

And Obama won. But that's all I know right now and I'm not exactly sure what you are asking unless it's for a final tally, and we'll just have to wait, I suspect.

"Okay, so explain this to me, Bill says Texas is must win. Chelsea says Texas is must win. Carville says they have to win Texas or it is over. Obama clearly wins Texas, by 5 delegates. Carville packs his bags and leaves Washington. The media still refuses to admit Obama won Texas. Hillary ignores all of their campaign's previous statements about having to win Texas. How's that work again..?"

The explanation is quite simple:

Hillary won the primary and all Obama did was win the measly anti-democratic caucus. So what if Obama won more delegates? Primaries count because Hillary wins those sometimes, and besides what's the mainstream media gonna do--WRITE A RETRACTION?! Ha! Not in this lifetime.

Besides, Obama can't win in November because he's an ANGRY NEGRO HUSTLER. He's going to unleash AFRICANIZED BEES and call on the MOTHER SHIP to KILL WHITEY. And whatever white people are left will never get a job again because slave reparations will demand that they all either CONVERT TO ISLAM or DIE.

The new national anthem will be SUPERFLY. The new founding father will be MARCUS GARVEY.

Vote Hillary--before it's too late!

What a bitch.

In the primary, Hillary won with 51 percent of the vote to Obama's 47 percent.

Nuff said.

I look forward to the front page retractions of all of the "Hillary gets big win in Texas" headlines.

Tena, Burnt Orange started processing results again at 11:00 a.m. CT.

Y'all are always way ahead of me. :)

Burnt Orange Report - Results from TX County Conventions

TIMESTAMP - 11:10AM, 3/30/08

with 81.42% delegates reporting

BHO 56.04%

HRC 43.96%

Cute Article on Granma Obama

http://www.boston.com/news/nation/articles/2008/03/30/holding_down_the_obama_family_fort/

From the "best political team of CNN" at this hour

"Early results tallied by The Associated Press showed that Clinton had 301 delegates, or 60 percent, compared to Obama's 202 delegates, or 40 percent."

Yeah, right. Best indeed.

Except for the whole he actually won Texas thing.

Delegates matter. 'nuff said.

Sorry about the double post on Clinton's victory.

"After failing to oust Clinton, Obama arrogantly says Clinton 'welcome to stay' in race:

As though Hillary Clinton needed Barack Obama's permission to campaign for President. Democratic presidential hopeful Barack Obama on Saturday said Hillary Clinton can stay in the nominating race as long as she wants and expressed confidence that Democrats will coalesce around the winner despite the often bitter contest."

There is no quit with the Clintons.

They are fighters.

"Slate: As time goes by, Obama's
arrogance will come into question

His failure to even admit to the slightest mistake in the Wright affair plays into this meme, originally ratified by AP's Ron Fournier."

Great, another w.

Clinton admits mistakes.

gotalife,

I agree that Hillary can fight it all through the remaining primaries. I don't see her winning the delegate battle, but she can go that far. But, if she takes it to the convention floor, it spells doom for the party. The nominee, whether Clinton or Obama, will emerge damaged and the party split. In order for the nominee to come out with the best chance of winning, the convention cannot go down Ted Kennedy style. The loser has to accept it and rally around the winner. Otherwise, McCain will walk into the Oval Office.

The Clintons are fighters. But, one can take the fight too far.

Yes, Obama got more delegates, but my original post was about total votes. My point was that Obama supporters pretend popular vote is what matter. But in Texas, that seems not to matter to you.

You missed my point entirely. I under the procedure - really I do. If you want me to try to explain why terms used in procedure are terms used to differentiate processes, and not reality, I'll try, but it took me a year of law school to finally get it.

The precinct convention caucus votes were popular votes - we all lined up and voted. The decisions were based on popular vote.

This is not the general election. This is all a technical process that the Democratic Party uses to determine who the nominee is. The Primary votes and the Caucus votes have the same weight.

Sorry for posting almost the same thing twice. I didn't think it posted the first time and I rewrote it.

It's this comments system - it's a bit weird.

Obama also up 10 in Rasmussen tracking.

Carville today seems to be hinting that Hillary is about to go nuclear on Obama.

Well, first of all, I don't put much credence in anything Carville says.

In the second place, and I mean this - it will backfire. It already has. I truly believe that the more negative any of them goes, the worse they look to voters.

If she wants to throw the entire Democratic party to the Repug wolves just because she's having a tantrum over losing, then to hell with anyone who is involved.

It's shameful. It's beyond shameful. He's the goddamn frontrunner for the Democratic nomination and Hillary Clinton is turning into a goddamn Repuglican right in front of my eyes.

by "We", i mean those of us who respect the Democratic party's nominating process. not Clinton supporters, apparently.

LMFAO. Your "respect" for the process apparently extends to trying to change the rules as to who the SDs can vote for.

Carville today seems to be hinting that Hillary is about to go nuclear on Obama.

Ducking sniper fire but asking --

What else can Sen. Clinton possibly do that she has not done already?

The only thing left is the strategy of Repeat and Rinse with the Scary Un-American Negro theme. *sigh* I’ll just continue to make more trips to his website to donate.

Unlike many of my fellow Obama supporters, I am not entirely opposed to Clinton staying in the race. I’m not entirely opposed to her hurling everything she has at him. I did not always feel that way. I recently changed my mind, sort of. However, I do think she should accept the results after all the primaries are over. A credentials committee fight on the convention floor does not enhance or indicate her much vaunted "toughness." It shows her to be a massively silly loser.

The Repuke 527’s are not going to be any easier to handle in the muck they plan on hurling at Obama. I’m glad Obama is on a bus ride through Penn. I hope he does a bus ride through IN and NC as well.

Last time we had the war hero and their 527's made him into a coward, liar and fraud. Why don't we have similarly nasty 527 like organizations who can work similar angles against McCain? Not everyone who was in that camp with McCain could possibly think McCain was the hero he's portraying himself to be. Is Rove not a current adviser to McCain? I do not believe that either of the Dem candidates is weak. I think McCain is weak. But with Rove at his back, be prepared to have a lot of people believe that gravity has reversed. It's not that we have weak candidates, it's that they are meaner and appeal to fear. They have been appealing to fear for decades, successfully.

McClatchy reports Obama took caucus by 59-41.

This means if the lump the popular votes together, he may even with both the pop and the delegates?

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/homepage/story/32023.html

From the Texas Star Telegram:

At stake are the 67 delegates that will be divvied up through the state's caucus system. In the March 4 primary, Clinton won Texas' popular vote 51-47 percent, giving her 65 delegates and Obama 61.

Last night, Obama finished 59, Clinton 41.

Of the 67 caucus delegates 42 will be pledged delegates and 25 will be superdelegates. If we apportion the 42 pledged delegates (the final will not be announced till June 6), then the breakout would be Obama 25, Clinton 17 (give or take a couple).

If we add these to the original we get Obama =61+25=87 delegates, Clinton 65+17=82 delegates, leaving Obama with a plurality of 5 for both phases of the Texas election. This is of course a guesstimate.

So definitely it look like Obama won Texas delegate-wise, which is the more important measure.

As far as the popular vote, it was Clinton 51/47 for the primary. For the caucus it was Obama 59/41.

The question is, what they do with the popular votes from the caucus. Are they added to the primarty votes to form a total?

Anybody know?

OOOPS! I edited my profile, and all of a sudden I can't see any avatars, my own or any one else's. Anybody know how I can restore them?

Hey, I'm from houston, TX and, according to the 9 p.m., the margin of victory so far is 59 to 41. Go Obama!!!

The percentages being quoted this morning (59% to 41%) are from AP's tally yesterday, based on "about half of the conventions reporting." According to Burnt Orange's posting at 9 a.m. CT this morning, based on about 61% of the conventions reporting, Obama now has 55.8% to Clinton's 44.2% . That's an 11.5 point lead compared to AP's earlier 18 point lead -- a big difference. I have no idea how that translates into delegates, but below a certain point (10% perhaps?) Obama's reported net gain of 9 caucus-awarded delegates is going to drop to 7. Would someone better informed please chime in?