Obama And Hillary Camps Battling In Today's Texas District Conventions
Today is a big day in Texas: The Democratic district conventions, the second step in the caucus process. The district conventions will elect delegates to the state Democratic convention, which will in turn select the federal delegates.
The conventional wisdom going in is that Barack Obama will get enough projected delegates today to more than beat Hillary's four-delegate advantage from the state primary, thus crowning him the overall winner of the "prima-caucus" system. A clearer picture should emerge tonight, and we'll be updating when that happens.
Late Update: The latest numbers, with 31% of total delegates counted by Burnt Orange Report, stand at Obama 55%, Clinton 45%.
Late Late Update: With just under 40% of the delegate numbers in, it's Obama 58% to Clinton 42%.
Even Later Update: The Obama campaign has declared victory.















THIS IS EXCELLENT NEWS! FOR HILLARY!
March 29, 2008 4:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oh, i can almost see all the left-wing blogs jumping up and down claiming that he won the texas primary.
Won't matter to them any tiny bit that their candidate will be losing by more than 80,000 votes even after accounting for all the caucus votes.
March 29, 2008 4:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
Jump Jump
up down
up down
delegates, baby, delegates, baby!
As I read the rules (but I could be confused) the nominating process is about achieving the most delegates. Perhaps I am just another Kool Aid drinker but...
March 29, 2008 4:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
How would you know? The caucus votes are not released in their entirety to the public.
March 29, 2008 4:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
Quote: "Won't matter to them any tiny bit that their candidate will be losing by more than 80,000 votes even after accounting for all the caucus vote"
Yeah. Guess we'll have to console ourselves with the knowledge that you can thank Rush Limbaugh for this margin.
*sniff!*
March 29, 2008 5:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
I thought the Limbaugh-ites were voting for Hillary, as they think she's more beatable. But it probably goes both ways. Wouldn't it be fine if they're so confused they cancel each other out?
March 29, 2008 5:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
Interesting way the Texans had in engineering a primary/caucus system to negate any "party mischief" of nefarious crossovers like the Limbaugh-ites where they could not vote in the caucus....so the popular vote strategy does not lead to the delegate count.
Obama appears to be within 33 or so of catching Clinton in the superdelegate count as well.
March 29, 2008 5:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
It does matter, but we didn't make the rules, so accepting what is, yes, I am jumping up and down.
March 29, 2008 9:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, it is a delegate race.
March 29, 2008 4:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
my understanding is that Obama had the delegate advantage in Texas not the other way around as you have it in the post. He won the caucuses that night although she won the primary. So that 4 delegate advantage is from the primary, the post makes it seem like he needs to make those up when he already did (even if it is not completely settled until all is said and done today, but still).
March 29, 2008 4:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
"The district conventions will elect delegates to the state Democratic convention, which will in turn select the federal delegates."
It ain't over 'til someone sings something...
March 29, 2008 5:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
oops. I see Eric did mention the primary. my bad.
March 29, 2008 4:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
Won't matter to them any tiny bit that their candidate will be losing by more than 80,000 votes even after accounting for all the caucus vote
Funny, I read differently on Slate.
March 29, 2008 4:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
your slate link is broken
March 29, 2008 4:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
Tena,
That link isn't working
March 29, 2008 4:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
There have been complaints this week from Obama delegates getting robocalls and mailers from Clinton and Clinton delegates getting robocalls and mailers from Obama. Apparently, the candidate affiliations on some of the delegate lists put out by the counties got inadvertently switched around. I don't think anything sinister was going on.
March 29, 2008 4:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hillary is fighting this one tooth and nail apparently. There's been a lot of reports of Nevada type shenanigans circulating right now.
Who said that caucuses don't matter?
March 29, 2008 4:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
Just goes to show how stupid and undemocratic the caucus system is. Same Primary, one candidates wins an election by 100,000 votes but loses in caucus system.
This caucus thing is a total hogwash.
March 29, 2008 5:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Perhaps. I am not a great fan of caucuses, but there is an argument to be made for them that they cut down on mischievious trickster-voters from outside the party. That said, whether or not they are "hogwash," this is the system that everyone (including Clinton's people) agreed to in Texas. The Canadian army did not occupy the government of Texas and force the democrats in that state to host a caucus; the democrats of Texas chose this system of their own free will. If you are not from Texas, it seems rather arrogant of you to tell the good people of that state how to run their own affairs, and if you are from Texas then this moment seems like rather a uselessly late point in the game to grouse about it.
For a man who takes such umbrage at all of Sen Obama's "whining," you certainly seem to be doing a great deal of it yourself.
March 29, 2008 5:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
when 10 people are voting in the primary - caucus is enough, but when millions of people are coming out to vote - caucus system becomes a farce... and thats what it turned out to be in Texas and many of the states.
"this is the system that everyone (including Clinton's people) agreed to in Texas" ow please don't give me the same old crap. I'm not telling anyone not to count the caucus after all the voting, just giving a plain fact on how ridiculous the caucus system is when it comes to high intensity election. And since you are at "Everyone agreed to the system before" argument, just remember when clinton camp argues super-delegates should vote their conscious and not the pledged delegate winner, they are arguing on the same premise.
March 29, 2008 5:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
No argument there. I have been saying all along that the each supers should vote for whomever s/he likes for whatever reason moves him or her.
March 29, 2008 6:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
Quote: "Just goes to show how stupid and undemocratic the caucus system is. Same Primary, one candidates wins an election by 100,000 votes but loses in caucus system.
This caucus thing is a total hogwash."
Yeah, Rush can get Republicans to vote for Hillary in the primary, but it's a lot to ask to expect him to throw the caucus as well. The level of commitment required to vote in a caucus tends to cut out the mischief-makers.
March 29, 2008 5:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, well your rush voters made your saint win all the other red states.. i guess they won't be voting for Obama either in November.
March 29, 2008 5:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
Quote: "Yeah, well your rush voters made your saint win all the other red states.. i guess they won't be voting for Obama either in November."
No, Rush didn't get Republicans to vote for Obama. Obama got Republicans to vote for Obama.
March 29, 2008 6:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
Really?? They were voting for Obama because they knew he would be easy to beat.
March 29, 2008 6:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't think so. I think the Republicans who voted for Obama are genuinely drawn to him. Whether or not they vote for him is another story, of course, since McCain for some reason has something of a reputation as a maverick.
No, I think it's safe to say that those Republicans who crossed over to make mischief voted for Hillary.
March 29, 2008 7:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
Just one correct fact would be nice.
First, the overall caucus attendance from March 4 swung Obama's favor if the partial results are anything near correct, more than the primary totals favored Clinton. So Obama actually gets more total support from Texas.
Secondly, the Republican numbers were about 6% of Democratic totals, breaking about 2-1 for Obama, until John McCain became the presumptive nominee. After that point, Republican crossover participation doubled to about 12-13% of total Democratic votes, breaking roughly 2-1 for Hillary. Essentially, this puts Republican support for Obama consistent across all states, as a percentage of total Democratic turnout, but a fourfold increase in Clinton support since Limbaugh gave the order. The statistical likelihood of this happening without influence is very slim.
March 29, 2008 9:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
Point to source data for your crossover assertions. Thanks.
March 30, 2008 8:40 AM | Reply | Permalink
I like Nelson of Florida's proposal for election reform.
One vote, winner takes all.
The money wasted on this election would be better served helping others with charity.
The Dem election process is stupid and wasteful.
March 29, 2008 5:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
Nelson would be happier in the Republican Party
March 29, 2008 5:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
Is Nelson the one that gets to cast that vote?
March 29, 2008 5:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
So, no primaries at all? Eliminate state-level parties? Stop whining about caucuses. If you don't like them, get your state to abolish them. Oops, sorry, my guess is that you don't live in a caucus state. In that case, better find some politico in the party machine who'll make a rule disallowing them. See how far you get there.
But I'll bet you didn't have any complaints when Hillary won the New Hampshire caucuses, right?
March 29, 2008 5:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
Then feel free to go form your own party where people have to vote the way you tell them to.
March 29, 2008 5:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
Caucuses are for voting.
I get my hogs washed in the triple load machine.
March 29, 2008 5:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Actually, in Texas, primaries are for voting; caucuses are for voting AND party-building! That's why we have both.
Texas is building a strong Democratic Party this year! :-)
March 30, 2008 2:03 AM | Reply | Permalink
For 2012, the Dem Party can consider banning caucuses, establishnig regional primaries, moving from total delegates to total votes, or creating winner-takes-all contests, whatever.
But for 2008, the rules were clear and transparent (to candidates who bothered to study them in advance). The effort to delegitimize caucuses because they were Obama victories is the real hogwash here. It smacks of the schoolyard bully frightened about losing rank.
March 29, 2008 5:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
The problem isn't caucuses. The problem isn't proportional delegates. The problem isn't, obviously, primaries.
The problem is having the nomination process spread out over six freakin' months.
Let states assign delegates however they want to. Caucuses, primaries, town meetings, rock-paper-scissors, who cares. But have them all do it on the same day. No more of this jockeying for position, and no more of this Iowa-New Hampshire garbage.
One day national primary would solve all of these problems and more.
March 29, 2008 5:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
meh... not really since that will just make it whoever is the most well known or has the most cash the winner every time.
March 29, 2008 5:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
When would you have it? How would a candidate like Obama get to make himself known to people intimately? The advantage would be for the Clinton every time. The celebrity candidate. And, if there's, say, six Democrats in your proposed election, the winner could walk away with...thirty percent of the vote, maybe?
March 29, 2008 5:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
it would also mean the establishment candidate would automatically win. it would completely get rid of handshake campaining and be a contest of name recognition, money raising for tv buys, and media manipulation.
i agree 6 months is too long. 3-4 months is plenty.
March 29, 2008 6:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
All on the same day is a problem. Candidates would not have time to go to every state personally within a reasonable time before the vote so the primaries would have to rely heavily on television ads and mailings. People wouldn't have the opportunity to interact with the candidates in person.
As messy as this insanely long primary season has been, both candidates have gotten to spend a lot of time with voters in every single state. Americans have so little faith in their leaders after he-who-shall-not-be-named for 8 years, it helps if they feel they personally know the person they are voting for.
March 30, 2008 12:01 AM | Reply | Permalink
Under that scenario, Hillary would have won.
March 30, 2008 1:28 AM | Reply | Permalink
Eliyah, That's what I was saying. Or meant, anyway. That Hillary's margin over Obama in the primary was in large part thanks to Limbaugh instructing his idiot listeners to vote for Hillary cuz they regard her as more beatable in the general.
March 29, 2008 5:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
Perhaps. I am not a great fan of caucuses, but there is an argument to be made for them that they cut down on mischievious trickster-voters from outside the party
Yep.
How exactly is a caucus not voting? We were all just voters. We came back for our precinct conventions and made ourselves heard again. How the hell is that not a popular vote, except in the most technical sense?
March 29, 2008 5:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
Quote: "One day national primary would solve all of these problems and more."
Yes, but there's an obvious problem to this, as well. Most candidates wouldn't have the money to run a national campaign from the git-go.
Maybe we should just have a silent auction.
March 29, 2008 5:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
I like the idea of regional primaries spaced out over two months. Alternate the order every four years, so no region gets too much influence over time. And if we're re-structuring everything, why not hold those primaries in April and May when they will be closer to the nominating conventions and the weather will be less of a factor?
March 29, 2008 5:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
i also like regional primaries: the southeast, then the northwest, then the midwest, etc. it allows the candidates to get to every state that will participate in each primary day, but ends this drawn out process where the pundits and bloggers chew over the results of one state for a week and half. and by shuffling the order randomly each time, no area will get too Iowaized.
March 29, 2008 9:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
I see the link is broken. Let me try again - I don't know why - I wish there was a preview function so you could fix broken links before they post.
Let me see what I can do - thanks guys.
March 29, 2008 5:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
A one day national primary would likely result in the "inevitable" candidate being shoved down our throats. That's what Clinton planned to do on not so superTuesday. Only Iowa saved us from the Clinton machine.
March 29, 2008 5:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
I say we just have 2 primaries/week(4 primaries/2 weeks is probably a better system, now that I think about it). The DNC holds a lottery and every state is given a random primary round. The candidates have 2 weeks to campaign in each of 4 states. Then move on to the next round. Let the states haggle over primary or caucus.
That's how it should be run.
March 29, 2008 5:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
when 10 people are voting in the primary - caucus is enough, but when millions of people are coming out to vote - caucus system becomes a farce.
O yes, how dare those people participate in our participatory democracy. Why, this must be stopped at all costs!
The people might actually take over.
I'm trying the Slate link again here If that doesn't work - I dunno.
March 29, 2008 6:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't think even you know what you just wrote.. it makes no sense!
March 29, 2008 6:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
Just got off the phone with my wife. She's on the way home from our county convention where she was an Obama delegate today. The primary vote in our county was almost exactly 50/50. Out of about 22,000 votes cast in the March 4 primary, Clinton won by 400 votes for a 50/49 advantage.
In this county, Clinton seemed to get a lot of Limbaugh-inspired crossover votes. She won heavily in the rural areas and a bunch of my wife's collegues (Republican doctors) all admitted voting for Clinton to mess up Democrats.
However, today at the caucus, Obama won 58/42 in terms of delegates to the state convention. My wife had a blast and says she applied her knowledge from watching survivor to win the precinct for Obama. Our own rural precinct voted 70/30 in favor of Clinton and the precinct caucus favored Clinton as well but not by such a wide margin. At today's convention our precinct had 7 Clinton delegates and 5 Obama delegates and were told that they were able to vote one delegate and one alternate to the state convention. My wife observed that the Clinton delegates were somewhat divided and several of them wanted to go to the Austin convention. So she got together with the other 4 Obama delegates and they schemed to put 2 names forward as delegate candidates but all agreed to only vote for just one candidate. So they held the precinct vote with 2 Clinton candidates and 2 Obama candidates and BAM... the two Clinton candidates split their vote 3-4 while all 5 Obama votes went to just one Obama candidate and despite being outnumbered 7-5 the Obama group managed to elect the single state delegate from their pecinct. The Clinton people never knew what hit them until the vote was over and then they were really pissed. They did manage to elect the alternate though.
My wife says she never would have thought of that strategy without watching survivor. So I guess you do learn something from TV.
March 29, 2008 6:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
"I like the idea of regional primaries spaced out over two months. Alternate the order every four years, so no region gets too much influence over time."
I guess that's better than a national primary. As a poor little lonely Utah progressive, my vote would be more effective in a regional primary than it does now. As for the GE, I long for direct elections. There's no excuse anymore for diluting the vote, without explaining to Americans that those in power don't truly want their vote to count after all.
That being said, closely spaced regional primaries don't allow the candidates to develop the way they do when groups of states vote together. Obama didn't win on Superdupermarvelouswonderful Tuesday; all he did was not lose, which made everyone prick their ears and get to know him. I'm not sure bi-weekly regional primaries would have allowed the narrative, as it were, to develop.
I just wish the Party would figure out a fair way to shorten the primary season someway, somehow.
March 29, 2008 7:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
i think the electoral college argument is that things like ballot stuffing effect only one state. That said, I don't like the winner take all aspect of the electoral college. Proportional allocation would be quite similar to a straight vote.
March 29, 2008 8:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
Actually, there were 22 contests on Super Tuesday. Obama won 13 to Clinton's 9 (New Mexico reporting about 2 weeks later.)
Unless my math is screwy 13 is bigger than 9. But with Clinton New Math, it is possible than none of Obama's wins count as wins, but count as either "losses" or "no contests" or "ties."
March 29, 2008 10:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
And what, pray tell, does this have to do with DEMOCRACY???
March 29, 2008 7:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
OMG! I Love it! This is a frickin movie script! Totally frickin Hilarius! It's also a great analogy for the 50% plus 1 vs. 50 State strategy!
March 30, 2008 2:57 AM | Reply | Permalink
Herding sheep is a cuacus.
Voting should be private.
That is why there is a curtain and when they exit poll , I tell them it is private.
March 29, 2008 6:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Voting should be private. That is why there is a curtain and when they exit poll , I tell them it is private.
Well, you're a Hillary supporter. Nobody blames you for being ashamed of your vote.
March 29, 2008 7:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
The nominating process is not "voting." It is a party discussion out of which a nominee emerges. Our primaries and caucuses are wildly democratic and broadly based compared to those of other democracies, like Great Britain.
March 29, 2008 8:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
DirkVA -- Exactly!
This whole sanctimonious "disenfranchisement" argument is utter nonsense in the context of a primary.
No one is guaranteed by the Constitution, election law, or any other authority, a "right" to a voice in the selection process of private non-profits, which is what the political parties are. The parties can make up any rules they want (within wide Constitutional bounds).
To me, it's just more evidence of the Clintons' cynicism that they are falsely crying "disenfranchisement" to serve their own ends, when no disenfranchisement has occurred.
Among other things, it denigrates the claim of people who have truly been disenfranchised because they have been barred from voting by arcane and complicated laws or through intentional provision of insufficient polling places, machines, etc. (like ex-felons, transient people, low-income people).
March 29, 2008 9:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
I do know how to post links, and though I didn't close the tag the last time, if it was going to work, that wouldn't have mattered. It didn't work, and I don't know why.
March 29, 2008 6:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
Tena,
Just paste the URL and then hit the space bar. It always works for me.
(If you want to make a long URL shorter you can do it via tinyurl.com
March 29, 2008 10:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
I got news for you. The official definition of the winner of the primary is the candidate who accumulates 2025 delegates or more. The criterion is delegates, not popular vote, despite what the Clinton team is trying to spin.
And, if neither candidate can get 2025 delegates, as is now certain, then the superdelegates decide. In that case, it still comes down to delegates, not popular vote. So once again, altogether now: delegates, delegates, delegates.
March 29, 2008 6:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
2024 now.
March 29, 2008 7:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
My wife says she never would have thought of that strategy without watching survivor. So I guess you do learn something from TV.
I love that story.
I made a decision not to be a precinct delegate - we were so heavily weighted in my precinct for Obama, that I wasn't worried and I can't go to Austin, if I'd made it that far. I thought it wasn't fair.
Anyway - Tell your wife another Texas female Democrat says: You rock!
March 29, 2008 6:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
You know we all argue from here to hell and back about the unfairness or fairness of the caucus system, but the remains: the caucusing states were realities long before this campaign started, and it is not as if this was sprung on the Clinton team as a surprise.
And despite what Bill and Hillary may think about caucuses, they opted to run for president and co-president. Nobody forced them. And now that they are behind the eight ball because of their failure to deal with the realities of caucuses, they are...well to put it mildly..whining.
To me the failure of Hillary to adapt her campaign to the realities of the caucusing system and engineer victories in enough of them to be ahead of the game is kind of convincing proof that she is lacking in the leadership department.
Hillary is one smart gal and very determined. But she has not been able to supplement her talents with leadership, innovation, inspiration, or a true commander in chief's ability to adapt to circumstances in the field.
Now, all she and Bill can do is whine about the "injustices" of the caucusing system. It would be like the New York Giants complaining about not understanding the defensive formations of the New England Patriots, and whining to the referee...look at them. They're lining up in a formation I don't understand. It's not fair!
Had they done that, who do you think would have won the Super Bowl?
On the other hand, the Obama team rolled up their sleeves, went to work, and found out about how caucuses work. That is leadership.
March 29, 2008 6:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama's run a nearly error-free campaign. It's been most impressive.
March 29, 2008 7:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes, and did the Giants whine? No, they didn't. They pulled out all the stops and made their last play look easy.
18-1, baby! Clinton forced the game into double-overtime, hasn't moved the ball since the first half, and the fans are heading for the parking lot. The Patriots thought they were entitled to the championship, too. Dare I hope for the same outcome now?
Oh, yes, and you're right about the rest.
March 29, 2008 7:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
All candidates went into an election on the same set of rules- the game started with the 0-0 score. We're into the fourth quarter and Hillary folks are whining about a million things because the chips fell the other way.
Show me an instance where Obama broke the rules set at the starting line or show may an instance how Hillary can win this election without breaking the rules that were in place when the score was 0-0.
Rest is nonsense.
March 29, 2008 6:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
kash: I like how the football metaphor of your post merged with mine. Lucky accident?
March 29, 2008 7:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
Suntzu:
I didn't read your post earlier, but I have to admit yours is a more conclusive argument than mine.
March 29, 2008 7:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
Anyway - Tell your wife another Texas female Democrat says: You rock!
Thanks.....and for what it's worth. The stereotypes don't necessarily hold in this thing. My wife is a a 30-something Latina and hard-core Obama supporter. In our precinct the biggest Clinton supporter is loud and pushy black woman who is our next door neighbor. According to my wife she was so loud and pushy that she managed to split the Clinton group in half which accounted for the Obama minority being able to ambush them and walk away with the delegate.
March 29, 2008 6:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks.....and for what it's worth. The stereotypes don't necessarily hold in this thing
I've seen that all over, but the percentages do tell the story. I'm just really glad your wife was so very smart - she was absolutely the right person to send because that is what those conventions are all about, I know. I've been there in the past.
Obama '08!!!!
March 29, 2008 7:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
Evening,
does anyone know when the final results from Texas will be communicated?
March 29, 2008 7:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
Just refresh this website every hour or so. http://www.burntorangereport.com/
March 29, 2008 7:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks for the link. From some of the comments on the site, there is mild chaos there, beginning with the false reports earlier of some conventions being cancelled.
With 26% of the conventions reporting Obama is ahead 55%-45%. Don't know how that would translate into a hard delegate count, but sounds nice for Obama.
Whether you like it or not, a caucus is participatory democracy, and the feeling one can get from it can be more meaningful than just walking up to a voting machine and pulling a lever or filling a form. Maybe by having both a primary and a caucus the Texans know something the rest of us don't know about democracy.
Hard to say though when you consider that down there they have been under the domination of people like Bush, Rove, and DeLay, and going back a few generations, LBJ and Connally. Not to mention the weird, some would say, unconstitutional gerrymandering under the Republicans like DeLay.
Strange country, Texas. Oh, I forgot, it's not a country, it's a state.
March 29, 2008 8:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
Texas is strange, yes. But I think Texas is going to give the Republican Party a nasty shock this November!
Our Democratic Parties are energized in a way that's never been seen before! Yeehaw!
March 30, 2008 2:00 AM | Reply | Permalink
The caucus delegates will not actually be awarded until the Texas State Democratic Convention is held the first week in June.
March 29, 2008 8:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
Actually, I am a Clinton supporter.
Voted for him twice, will vote for her twice and always will support the Clintons.
Proud of it.
March 29, 2008 7:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
But are you a Democrat?
Will you vote for Obama "if" he wins the nomination?
March 29, 2008 7:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
Of course.
Funny, I have been blogging with wingnuts arguing everytime they blamed President Clinton for w's disasters for years but never thought Dems would bash their President like they have this cycle.
March 29, 2008 8:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
This must mean, at best, that you will spend a lot of time voting on Senate races. Possibly even a Gubernatorial race or two. Good luck with that.
March 29, 2008 8:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
Like you, I voted for Bill twice, for Hillary twice (we seem both to be New Yorkers). But that was then and this is now. We need to move on. Nostalgia is not going to solve our national problems. I would love to see a woman for president, but not Hillary. Hillary just does not have the right stuff. Sorry.
March 29, 2008 9:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm curious - if Clinton does not get the caucus win in TX, can she tie it up in the courts?
March 29, 2008 7:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
They have threatened a challenge but so far no challenges yet. Maybe come Monday we will hear something.
http://www.kxmb.com/getArticle.asp?ArticleId=215574
March 29, 2008 9:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks for the info and link, suntzu.
March 29, 2008 11:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
Clinton Folks:
It's amusing to witness your new found and belated despise for Caucus process.
But you should be more appalled Hillary hadn't fired Mark Penn & Co. Her failure in caucus states speaks volume about her abilties as a cheif executive.
E.g., While Penn was learning the odd rules of the Texas Primary, Obama camp was making Power Point presentations to volunteers across the state.
I think Caucus are very important- because they reward voters who are actively involved in the political process and from all we witnessed so far even Mark Penn- on the top of the pyramid-doesn't appear all that involved in the political process- coz he continues to split his consulting time between Microsoft and Hillary.
Hillary inbability to run a grass root level organization is what is killing her, and a very democratic process called Caucus is exposing her inability.
March 29, 2008 8:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
kash: Funny you should mention Mark Penn because he went public with the claim that he was not in charge of the Clinton ground game, despite insisting on the title of Chief Strategist. Penn sees his job as mainly one of defining the "message" which is a pretty lofty concept, but it still leaves most of the work of running a campaign to someone else.
This rupture between idea and execution is one reason why Penn and Ickes are at each other's throats all the time.
In the large view, if this same kind of rupture carries through to a Hillary White House, I think we are going to have lots of problems ahead of us.
Bush redux.
March 29, 2008 8:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
Only contests that favor Hillary are fair! WHaaaaaaaAAA!!!
Change the rules mid-game to favor Hillary, or you're not a real Democrat! WHaaaaaaaAAA!
March 29, 2008 8:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yarrgh.
I just got back from our senate district convention. Clinton carried our county on March 4, by a margin of about 70/30.
Clinton supporters showed up en masse for our county convention, and the margin was still approximately 70/30. Our precinct caucus was allotted 21 delegates: 16 for Clinton and 5 for Obama.
We showed up, did as we were asked, and were seriously outnumbered and outvoted, so our precinct gave the delegate to Clinton.
4,000 people showed up. Check-in was one gigantic clusterf&*k. We arrived at 7, the doors opened at 8:30, we stood in line 20 feet away from the front door, and it took us an hour to get inside. The sign in started 30 minutes late and was extended 30 minutes.
That said, things went very smoothly, all things considered. I left at 4:30 once it became clear we were seriously outnumbered and the Clintonistas weren't going to give on anything.
Our county is on the border. Clinton did will primarily along the border and the (delegate poor) Rio Grande Valley. Elsewhere, Obama prevailed. The popular vote ratio was 60/40 here; but Obama did much better in the March 4 caucuses, suggesting he'd do extremely well in today's caucuses.
But with 25 percent of the returns in, [url=http://www.burntorangereport.com/frontPage.do]Burnt Orange Report[/url] suggests its a little closer thus far.
Judging by this [url=http://www.texasobserver.org/blog/index.php/2008/03/29/mass-confusion-at-fort-worth-convention/]Texas Observer blog report[/url], our little clusterf&*k really wasn't so bad.
I still think Obama will do much better in today's caucuses than he did in the popular vote, but the going is pretty brutal in some quarters.
March 29, 2008 8:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
As of 8:01 Texas Time.
36% reporting: Clinton 42% Obama 58%
March 29, 2008 9:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
Trivia, who said: Campaigning is difficult, Caucusing is easy!
March 29, 2008 9:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
If this thing becomes a blowout, look for the Clintons to file suit:
http://www.kxmb.com/getArticle.asp?ArticleId=215574
This article pertained to the March 4 election, but today's results may push them over the edge. Once again, though, if they file suit, they are risking backlash from party elders who don't want any more turbulence than we already have.
Even if she wins a suit, what would be the gain? A few more delegates? Is it worth tearing the party apart over?
March 29, 2008 9:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
You cant sue over party elections. I mean, you can sue but you can't win. The Clinton's tried to sue over the Las Vegas Strip caucuses and that suit got thrown out (and they won those caucuses anyway)
March 30, 2008 1:27 AM | Reply | Permalink
Somewhat off topic, but Huff Post has people really angry because they are censoring posts and delays are ridiculous. I suggested they come over here and blog.
March 29, 2008 9:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm wondering, if the Clinton campaign is cash poor, will they have the money to file all those threatened lawsuits?
March 29, 2008 10:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wow! I just saw your avatar change!
March 29, 2008 10:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama's lead in delegates so far is astounding:
http://www.burntorangereport.com/
Was anything of these dimensions expected?
March 29, 2008 10:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
Have you noticed that the MSM is hardly covering the Texas convention at all? Any thoughts about how they are going to color the Big Map after the Texas delegate count is final? Will they stripe it, differentiating between primary and caucus delegates, as if it were a split decision? Think of the visual impact of Texas colored in for Obama. Will anchors and reporters finally stop referring to the 'big Clinton wins in Ohio and Texas'?
March 29, 2008 10:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
One wonders...
March 29, 2008 10:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, I had to wait until my son was visiting from Pittsburgh to show me how to actually load an avatar! How sad is that? And after loading the first one up, I found the second one that I liked better. Cool that you saw it actually change!
March 29, 2008 11:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Since you mentioned it, in case you read this, how does one load an avatar?
March 29, 2008 11:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
log in, click on the edit portion of "Your profile (edit)"
scroll down the edit page to the item that reads
Photo (max 64 pixels wide)
click on file selection option to load an image file.
I like the avatars, wish more people used them.
March 30, 2008 11:53 AM | Reply | Permalink
Just noticed that rabbitsmorgasbord has an avatar now!
March 30, 2008 2:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
CNN's bias towards HRC so blatant. Sheesh.
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/
March 29, 2008 10:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
Was anything of these dimensions expected?
O yes it was. I was there that night - I knew. I've never seen anything like it in my life.
March 29, 2008 10:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
Really - primary night and the caucuses were the coolest thing I've seen happen in this state in my life, vis-a-vis an election.
March 29, 2008 10:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
Having spent some time in NH pre-primary, I would hate to see us lose the early, town hall/living room campaigning that goes on there and in Iowa. It's the best way to 'level' the playing field between the big money, establishment candidate and the one that just 'ring true' with the people up close and in person. If it weren't for those in the beginning, Mitt Romney and HRC would have been set in as nominees long ago, I think ... and I don't think the country would be better off for that!!
Odd idea: divide into 4 regions
-- have an 'early' contest in each region (which was the idea this year with IA, NH, NV and SC),
-- rotate which region goes first
-- rotate which state within a region goes first (great fun when it would be Hawaii's turn!)
-- then regional primaries (or caucuses if the states prefer, I suppose) later, in the same order that the 'early' contests were held.
Compress all that into a workable time period but allow enough between early contests and between regions for, as someone said, the 'story' to develop.
Sounds complex in words, but would be very simple on a chart or spreadsheet. I think it would maximize voter contact and minimize cost.
March 29, 2008 10:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think it would maximize voter contact and minimize cost.
I'm all for anything that would accomplish both those objectives. I'd like to see the time period set, and stop these people from running all the time instead of doing their jobs.
And it's entirely too expensive to run for office. It's insanely expensive.
March 29, 2008 11:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
Newest number: Obama - 59.60 %
Clinton - 40.40%
March 29, 2008 11:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
Latest report out of TX: 10:01 PM
57% reporting Clinton: 40% Obama: 60%
To be perfectly honest with you I do not understand the impact of these figures in terms of hard delegates, but it sure sounds nice for Obama.
What I do know is that of the 67 delegates to be determined by caucus (as opposed to the primary which has already been settled), about 25 will superdelegates with the remaining 42 to be pledged delegates, and this is what they are battling over today.
March 29, 2008 11:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't know if the traditional "early" states (i.e. Iowa and New Hampshire) would be willing to give up that status to other states within their regions, but I do agree that how we do it now is not great.
My own state is lumped into Super Tuesday, and it seems to almost guarantee we get ignored in the rush. I'm convinced that Hillary won here mainly because she was the known commodity, not because she was the better candidate. A visit or two from Obama would have definitely tightened up the race, if not changed it altogether.
March 29, 2008 11:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
The Clintons have complained about the Texas caucus process since the end of February. Senator Clinton said it "made grown men cry trying to figure it out", even though they have run twice under this system when Bill was running in 92 and 96. Then they tried to get the democratic party to delay the caucus. Now that they are officially losing, what will they pull next?
March 29, 2008 11:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm trying a link again. So far the html I've always used is not working here. Anyway, it's a link to the BurntOrangeReport front page. There's a link there to an explanation of our caucus system and what this means.
And it does a better job of explaining than I could.
March 29, 2008 11:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
Tena, here's the html I use:
Visit Our Site
Just remove the underscore in front of "A HREF" when you put the url in that you want to link to.
March 29, 2008 11:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
Alright, let's try that again...
A HREF="http://www.yourdomain.com/">Visit Our Site
So if you're able to see the html, then you'll need to add "
Or try this link
and copy the html for the "Anchor Tag and the Href Attribute"
March 30, 2008 12:10 AM | Reply | Permalink
Three items from Texas:
1) There were robo calls this week telling Democratic voters that the district conventions had been cancelled. The state party chair generously attributed this to “enthusiasm” turned to irresponsible acts. I call it dirty tricks.
2) One of my friends is a precinct chair. On March 4, her precinct caucus went 51-49 and they designated 6 delegates for Obama and 6 for Clinton. One of the Clinton supporters wanted to chair the delegation. Fine. On Wednesday of this week he called my friend with many questions; she patiently explained where the convention was being held and how to chair the delegation. On Wednesday evening, he filed a challenge to the Obama delegates from his own precinct. He and she had a conversation on Thursday where he was unbelievably rude. This morning my friend—just six days out of the hospital—went to the convention to make sure the Obama delegates were seated. His challenge was immediately thrown out.
My friend has been active in the Dem Party forever and has proudly displayed pictures with the Clintons in the 90s. Now she is simply disgusted.
Can someone help me understand how these tactics are supposed to build goodwill for Clinton and encourage people to vote for her in the general?
3) I work with college students. Several have told me that their Republican parents are interested in voting for Obama in the general. So is my Republican son-in-law. Not a word about any Republicans wanting to vote for Clinton in the fall!
March 29, 2008 11:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't doubt you, and I'm an Obama supporter, but unless you have some facts to back up this anecdotal evidence, it's really not worth anything.
(I'm just saying because I hear the same thing from Clinton supporters: Obama is gaming the system, etc, and I tell them the same thing)
March 29, 2008 11:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
My primary idea.
Create 10 "regions" with 5 states each
region 1 Far West
HI AL OR WA CA
region 2 High Plains(drifter)
MT ID WY ND SD
region 3 Southwest
NV UT CO AZ NM
region 4 New England
ME VT NH MASS RI
region 5 Mid Atlantic
NY PA NJ CONN DEL
region 6 Ohio Valley
OH WV MI IN KY
region 7 Southeast
VA NC SC MD TN
region 8 South
FL AL MS LA GA
region 9 Southern Plains
TX OK AR KS MO
region 10 Northern Plains
MN WI IA NE IL
The idea is to then have 6 primary dates on which the states can have either an election or caucaus as they choose. 5 of the dates will be an election with one state from each of the 10 regions participating. A primary day of 10 states at once. The additional primary date will be for DC, Guam, Virgin Islands, Samoa, Puerto Rico and Dems abroad.
The voting will begin on January 21 an proceed at three week intervals with the exception of 3/14 which will always be for DC and the other oddballs.
1/21, 2/15, 3/7, (3/14), 3/31, 4/21
In each region a lottery will determine what will be a 20 year fixed order for who goes first each year. Once every 5 election cycles one of the states in each group will go first. After 20 years the order shall repeat.This way every state gets a chance to be "first"(although they will share that honor with 9 other states) The March 14 election for DC and the oddballs will never change(unfortunately they'll never get to go first, you have to be a state for that).
I'm sure a similar logic system could be devised. But it won't. sigh.
March 29, 2008 11:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
you want 10 at the same time, geographically as far apart as you can imagine?
i prefer 5 regions, and 2 rounds. first round 5 states, with one from each region. then have regional primaries.
and start in march or april. We a just about done with the primaries right now, and the election is 7 months away. too much time.
week 1: 1
week 3: 2
week 5: 2
-------------- done with 1 state per region
week 8: region 1
week 10: region 2
week 12: region 3
week 14: region 4
week 16: region 5
March 30, 2008 12:26 AM | Reply | Permalink
For those who are insomniac, or who had too much coffee, or who have nothing better to do this saturday night, you can spend the next hour or two trying to sort this out. It purports to explain how the delegates are apportioned, including the 42 that are in play today.
http://www.burntorangereport.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=4877
March 29, 2008 11:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
El Passo (an hour behind the rest of TX) is reporting so she'll close the gap.
March 30, 2008 12:01 AM | Reply | Permalink
Honest to god, I appreciate the advice, but that's the HTML I've always used. It's a total mystery why this won't work for me here.
I've not had this happen anywhere else.
O well.
March 30, 2008 12:03 AM | Reply | Permalink
Well, Storm, like I said other logical systems could be devised. Not a bad idea.
You could compress my 10 regions into 5 pretty easily. Take the round one, 5 state initial primary like you suggest and have a lottery in each of the 5 regions to see who goes first. This puts the "getting to go first" into a 40 year election cycle, but that's okay. Better than now where nobody but Iowa and NH can go first.
The second round as well could have a lottery to determine which region is first. Again, each region could have their turn to be first every 5 election cycles. And again, better than now where some states never ever get to go first.
It's amazing that two digital entities on the Internet can come up with better proposals with only 10 minutes thought, than what exists. You'd think that the Party wasn't even trying. Nah, couldn't be that.
March 30, 2008 1:18 AM | Reply | Permalink
Hmm, check out CNN's delegate calculator. Which lets you try out different scenarios. If I give Hillary 64% of PA, and 56% of the rest of the states, and 55% of the super delegates, Obama still wins.
March 30, 2008 1:33 AM | Reply | Permalink
Actually, in Texas, primaries are for voting; caucuses are for voting AND party-building! That's why we have both.
Texas is building a strong Democratic Party this year! :-)
March 30, 2008 1:48 AM | Reply | Permalink
Actually, in Texas, primaries are for voting; caucuses are for voting AND party-building! That's why we have both.
Texas is building a strong Democratic Party this year! :-)
March 30, 2008 1:49 AM | Reply | Permalink
Actually, in Texas, primaries are for voting; caucuses are for voting AND party-building! That's why we have both.
Texas is building a strong Democratic Party this year! :-)
March 30, 2008 1:49 AM | Reply | Permalink
What the......?
I swear I didn't cause this!
Okay, well, I may have screwed up on the reply thingy, but I know I didn't cause a triple-post!
March 30, 2008 2:02 AM | Reply | Permalink
Where is the media coverage of these conventions???
I can't find anything even reporting these results at e.g. the ABC, CNN, or MSNBC sites, much less updating network state-by-state delegate totals.
March 30, 2008 12:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
I haven't checked any of the national news sources for results from the Texas conventions. You can find pretty up-to-date information on the Texas conventions at the Burnt Orange Report website:
http://www.burntorangereport.com/showDiary.do;jsessionid=A3084C5D8A27BC0E181715D114ADBAC9?diaryId=5484
March 30, 2008 3:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think Hillary's supporters are all suffering from her caucus envy...
March 31, 2008 11:08 AM | Reply | Permalink