In Private Pep-Talk To Top Donors, Hillary Predicts: "We're Gonna Win This"

In a private meeting in D.C. with her top fundraisers from all over the country today, Hillary gave a rousing pep-talk in which she flatly predicted, "we're gonna win this," according to a fundraiser who was present.

In a series of closed-door meetings in Washington today, fundraisers were given extensive presentations from top Hillary advisers and surrogates about strategy and about what needs to be done to win over super-delegates should she fail to close the pledged delegate gap, the fundraiser says.

The fundraiser adds that there were expressions of frustration with DNC chair Howard Dean for not doing enough to resolve the Florida and Michigan situations.

I reported below that the Hillary campaign summoned its top fundraisers for an all-day affair in D.C. today. The fundraiser who was present gave me a rough run-down on some of what transpired.

Fundraisers were given a presentation on Florida by Senator Bill Nelson, and one on Michigan by Senator Debbie Stabenow, and senior Hillary adviser Harold Ickes walked listeners through the challenges ahead. The presentations had a tone of optimism tempered by realism, the fundraiser said, adding that Ickes didn't try to persuade his listeners that she would be able to catch up with Obama in pledged delegates.

Rather, the clear message emerging from the presentations was that Hillary's success depends on the campaign's ability to persuade the super-delegates that they should be considering three "data points," as this fundraiser puts it, in considering whom to back: The pledged delegate count, the popular vote, and the specific states won by each candidate.

The fundraisers -- who included Hillary finance chairs Alan Patricof, Maureen White, and Hassan Nemazee -- persistently questioned Hillary advisers about what could be done about Florida and Michigan. There was a pronounced sense at the meetings that Howard Dean needs to do more to resolve the situations in those states. "There was very much a sense that people want Dean to do more," the fundraiser says.

Hillary spoke soon after noon to her top money people. "She took questions for most of the time," the fundraiser says, adding that she projected an "upbeat" air and that she said, "I'm a fighter, when I get knocked down, I get right up, we're gonna win this."

Anyway, take this for what it's worth. One other point: The fundraiser says that the tensions between Ickes, Mark Penn and other top advisers were held in check for once: "They didn't go at each other," the fundraiser quips.


Comments (236)

No, she's not.

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The pledged delegate count, the popular vote, and the specific states won by each candidate.

Pledged delegate count: She loses this argument.

Popular vote: She loses this argument as well.

Specific states: She loses this argument as well (unless she believes that he won't win California, New York, Massachusetts, etc.).

This pretty much underscores just how weak her case is going forward. Even if you buy her "states won" argument, the other two data points don't favor her at all.

We really need to expose these people...This is fraud at the expense of the party!

How neat! They even triangulate their data points as well!

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Thanks for sharing as they say to kids.

It's brilliant snark, beyond anything that the fictional West Wing writers ever did. If this the way they answer attacks, I relish the daily briefings in the BO white house.

Now that's an email worthy of a contribution.
Seriously, how do I get a copy I can forward on a site where I can give what I can afford.

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Fourth unspoken point: coattails. As Foster's recent Obama-backed win illustrates, Obama can get more Dems elected. So, he wins this argument as well.

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actually, with re-dos in florida and michigan, and victories in the remaining states expected to go to hrc.

1. she may indeed overtake him in pledged delegates, although admittedly slim.

2. with florida and michigan re-dos, she's likely to overtake him in popular vote.

3. but regardless of #s 1&2, since neither candidate will reach the required 2024 delegates to win outright, it will come down to super delegates, and the argument regarding the states is actually building on a early obama camp argument about how the super delegates should vote, namely that they should vote to reflect the votes of their state.

well, super delegates, like congressional representatives, are more numerous in big states with more people than in little states with fewer people.

if pledged delegates vote the way their states vote, hrc wins super delegates going away and, "voila!", wins the nomination.

...not such a silly argument afterall, eh?

hrc or bust!

You're out of your freaking mind.

Hope you like busts, diddy.

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My reply isn't based on any emotional connection to a particular candidate, but your claims on Hillary being able to secure more pledged delegates than Barack at this point is close to mathematically impossible. Even in states where a candidate "wins", usually the delegates are split - and most states seem to come down to a 60/40 or 55/45 type of split.

I don't pretend to know how the whole thing will play out, but it is now pretty obvious that the only way one of them can secure the nomination in the first round of voting will be to get enough superdelegates to put them over the threshold. Regardless, the backroom is where the nominee is obviously going to selected. The primaries and caucuses at this point are only serving to pressure those superdelegates into a certain voting position.

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"I'm a fighter, when I get knocked down, I get right up, we're gonna win this."

Yes, she will! Yes, we will!! Yes, we the people will!!!

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How do I join the cult? Is there a chip they put in your brain or do I have to give you the routing number to my checking account?

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You are missing the supreme irony of Aimey May. "Yes, we the people will" - figure out a way to subvert the pledged delegate count and popular vote decided by the people and steal the nomination for Empress Clinton!

How very Jeffersonian.

apparently all you need is to give Hillary your VISA card. Apparently it is like an ATM. They keep charging whether you know it or not.

Pretty sad really - check it out:
http://bluejersey.com/showDiary.do;jsessionid=9813449AE0DED021B8BD56515A85568C?diaryId=7104
"I voluntarily left the Hillary Finance Committee after I discovered more than $3,000 in unauthorized charges from HRC campaign on my own VISA card! And that set off a wave of overdrafts and $400 in bank charges that I was stuck with. And the compliance officer Allison Wright at Hillary VA headquarters refused to reimburse me for the charges. And the senior finance reps who I notified about more than $3,000 in unauthorized Visa Charges never once aplogized or empathized with my plight, much less sent me a "sorry for all the trouble" note and a check!

Unbelievably, it took me more than a month of pleading and begging via email to get the money back. I was told verbatim:

"Kathy Callahan, you are going to be with us all the way to the White House...So let's leave the money where it is and we'll save time on inevitable future donations and transactions!"

Wow sounds more like Scientology to me.

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"[i]If you're gonna be dumb, you gotta be tough
If you get knocked down, you better get back up
I aint the shapest knife in the drawer, but I know
enough to know,
If you're gonna be dumb, you gotta be tough[/i]"'

-Andrew Neville & the Poor Choices

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"Hillary spoke soon after noon to her top money people. "She took questions for most of the time," the fundraiser says, adding that she projected an "upbeat" air and that she said, "I'm a fighter, when I get knocked down, I get right up, we're gonna win this.'"

I think she's right. . .unless there are no revotes in Michigan and Florida. That will be the battle, with the Obama campaign doing its best to prevent a revote in both states, and the Clinton campaign doing the converse. I think Hillary will win this battle because nobody in their right mind is going to want to alienate the voters of Florida and Michigan. On this issue, Hillary Clinton can rightfully claim the high moral ground.

I think she's right.

Why? Based on what? Seriously?

How is she going to win this?

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I am happy to talk seriously, if you are serious about talking seriously. :)

I think HRC will win if there are revotes in MI and Florida, and that's how the campaign ends, with her winning big in those states and getting a lead in the popular vote, after wins in Pennsylvania, Indiana, Kentucky, Puerto Rico, and with potentially competitive showings in Oregon, North Carolina and West Virginia.

In short, in the end I think she takes the popular vote lead with a bang-up showing in Florida and Michigan. All of this depends, however, on revotes in Florida and Michigan.

And that's how I see her winning. Seriously. :)

She is not winning NC.

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She's not winning Indiana either.

not winning michigan either.

Wouldn't count on competitive in Oregon either.

How will you count the "popular vote" from caucuses?

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Hillary will argue that you don't, because they are "undemocratic".

Seriously, I have reached saturation with the ridiculousness of that campaign. I cannot think of any argument that I would be truly surprised to hear emanating from them if they thought it would give them a momentary advantage.

Take the registered Democrats in each state and multiply by the average percenatge turnout in all proimaries, then divide the votes in proportion to the caucus results.

Simply adding the actual caucus headcounts to the primary totals disenfranchises Democrats in caucus states.

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I promise this is not snark, but have you done any math on this? Such as projections of her popular vote wins before the potential re-votes, and what kind of showing she'd need for this to happen?

I only ask because I am skeptical that she will take a larger percentage of the vote in either state than she did when the votes were uncontested. I just have some trouble believing she will make up an 800,000 vote lead in these last contests, even with a big win in Florida.

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Fair question, and snark is not assumed. I have not done the math, and I would not know how to do it, starting with PA and going through all the states.

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Fair question, and snark is not assumed. I have not done the math, and I would not know how to do it, starting with PA and going through all the states.

Fair enough. Here's someone who has done the math, and does know how to do it:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

Educate yourself. It's the internet - there's no excuse not to...

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Mr. Frontero:

Congratulations, you are just one more eminently rude poster. Educate yourself sir, and you can start by paying attention to the issue that I was discussing with some of our colleagues on here. In between your rude admonition to me to "educate myself", you refer me to a website that does not address the issue of whether HRC can catch BHO in the popular vote. Internet or not, the most important thing to do when one is seeking to educate oneself is to pay attention. You failed. . .bigtime. Study harder.

And to think this all started when I gave an honest answer to what I considered to be a fair question.

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bslev:

I'm sorry.

I have a way of speaking sometimes that reflects my own beliefs - I'm big on education. But saying "Educate yourself" was poorly put. sigh.

No snark or rudeness was intended - which I thought to make clear by saying "Fair enough." But I failed, alas.

However, I will point out that the link I gave you does have what I said. It's there - and Clinton simply cannot win fairly, or in keeping with the expressed wishes of the voters.

You might also try here:

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/3/9/184226/0219

(An easier slog)

Or here:

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/3/6/05326/39800

Best - and again, my apologies.

Jaime

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umm - on Indiana

1) she trails in the polls
2) much of Democratic voge-heavy Northwest Indiana is the Chicago media market, which means they are already quite familiar with Obama

she MIGHT break even in Indiana, but that would not necessarily be a smart bet

Weren't Florida and Michigan punished for a reason? (I'm a Michigan Voter, disappointed with Levin, et al)

Also, if the DNC can get an election together, Barack and those who who support him will be there..

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I personally think everybody is high if they think they'll be able to organize a "re-do" in either state in enough time. Money issues aside, it would require a huge organizational effort in a very contracted (what, 4 months?) period of time. Don't forget, at least in Florida, a lot of people didn't even realize the primary had been moved up in the first place, and showed up on the normal day to vote!

Re vote or don't she will still be behind in states won, delegates, and popular vote once they are all counted. How does that make her right to anyone who can add?

Sen Obama is not fighting revotes he has said that he will go along with whatever the states and the party decide.

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The popular vote will matter and it will matter a great deal. That said, in 2000, the GOP tried to explain a way Gore's victory in the popular vote in the same way you seek to defend against a potential Hillary win in the popular vote this year. Like you, the GOP argued that Bush won more states, and even argued that Bush won more zipcodes than Gore did.

The "more states" argument won't impress superdelegates. Americans Abroad are undoubtedly a great bunch, but they ain't California.

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It's about pledged delegates, not popular vote. In the first case, there is virtually no chance of HRC winning the popular vote, even with a 20+% victory in PA. In the second place, pledged delegates allow a comparison between caucus and primary states. Caucus states will be systematically disenfranchized by a reliance on the popular vote. You are living in a fantasy world.

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Sorry but no, Bslev. The Obama campaign has stated that they will abide by whatever decision the DNC makes, for one, so who knows where this will go.

But the analogy you're trying to make is tangential. The 2000 election was a zero-sum game at the point that argument was made. The Obama campaign has reached a point where that line will be maintained *in spite of* the outcomes of the remaining contests. He would have to suffer a catastrophic fallout in support - essentially flip the dynamics we're seeing in play through the first 40 states.

But the sad reality I'm seeing in the Clinton campaign, reenforced by this article, is expectations management. I don't deny your support is genuine, and that you really *want* Senator Clinton to win. That's she's even hinting that she *can* is simply taking you for a ride.

And when you folks figure this out, it's gonna hurt. So don't say no one warned you.

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And with the condescending post of toothwalker, I say thanks folks and do continue with your circle jerk. I'll continue on the ride that HRC is taking me on. What on earth was I thinking? lol
I did try though.


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"And when you folks figure this out, it's gonna hurt. So don't say no one warned you."

Where does that come from? What's that all about? Are you eight?

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Bslev,

I'm sorry if that came across wrong - i'm not trying to be condescending, insulting, or 8. I'm saying this in all sincerity - i see this as her setting her followers up for a fall they're not prepared for by virtue of pretending she can get to the nod without playing it extremely *extremely* dirty to get there. She *cannot* by virtue of the rules as they stand.

I understand holding onto the hope, and i'm not begruding you that or calling you a loon or anything you might imagine - just stating cold hard fact as i see it.

I'm a middle-aged, self-made brought up from dirt man who has learned the hard way when a deal is too good to be true, and that's what's she's selling you folks. I'm sorry, but there it is.

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You seem a tad touchy here. Toothwalker's comment doesn't seem condescending or snarky at all. On the contrary, to me at least, it seems respectful and carefully expressed.

Potential, shmotential. She is behind in the popular vote now. She's been behind since her string of post-Super Tuesday defeats began, even counting Florida and Michigan.

The point the man is trying to make is that she is now running a destructive, divisive campaign when her hopes for winning are based, at this point, on magical thinking.

She bet her whole campaign on a crushing victory on Super Tuesday and failed to get it. The best case scenario for her after Obama's string of crushing popular and delegate wins after Super Tuesday is a brutal, divisive convention floor fight where she is behind in pledged delegates and both candidates have an arguable claim to be ahead in the popular vote.

Put simply, this means that it is no longer possible for her to win the nomination except under circumstances that are absolutely certain to set off a civil war in the party and lose us the general election. The only thing we seem to get from her, her campaign or her supporters when they are confronted by this inconvenient truth is consultant blather words and denial.

So yeah, it's a little frustrating for those of us who can and have done the math to listen to her nonsensical platitudes about how its still winnable for her.

But, isn't obvious to you that she will split there as well? Obama can probably win MI? Then what?

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I think that Hillary has to win in both Michigan and Florida in order to get the nomination. I think if Senator Obama wins Michigan, he gets the nod, particularly if he remains ahead in the popular vote.

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The high ground? Really? Do you think she'd be making the same case if Obama had "won" in Florida or Michigan? Her "principled" stand is nothing more than flagrantly self-interested demagoguery. As a Florida voter who voted for neither Hillary nor Obama, I would be mighty upset if the results of our distorted non-primary were to be accepted as legitimate. Furthermore, I haven't seen Obama trying to block a revote. I have seen him reiterate his position that he signed on to the rules and will continue to honor them. That, to me, looks like the high ground here.

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Rightfully claim the moral high ground? Senator Clinton initially wanted the delegations seated proportionate to the bogus votes that included a ballot lacking Senator Obama's name. The high ground? She's talking here with her supporters about a strategy to woo superdelegates under the assumption that she won't catch Sen. Obama's pledged delegate lead. There is no high ground here buddy just Your Highness.

''I have thought about this for a long time,'' Mrs. Clinton said at a rally in an airport hangar in Syracuse. ''I've always thought we had outlived the need for an Electoral College, and now that I am going to the Senate, I am going to try to do what I can to make clear that the popular vote, the will of the people, should be followed.''

''We are a very different country than we were 200 years ago,'' Mrs. Clinton said. ''We have mass communications, we have mobility through transportation means to knit our country together that was not conceived of at the time of the founders' proposals about how we elect our presidents. I believe strongly that in a democracy we should respect the will of the people.''

Well that was then and now she wants to steal the election. Does she not understand what this means? Is she really that fucking stupid.

"Is she really that fucking stupid."

Aperantly

great quote

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"Is she really that fucking stupid."

No, she's just that fucking selfish.

To quote none other than scumbag Republican media consultant Alex Castellanos, who gets it in a way that scumbag Hillary consultant Mark Penn does not:

"If the Clinton people knee-cap Obama, it would be like killing Santa Claus Xmas morning in front of the children. The children won't forget or forgive."

(Courtesy of Tom Edsall and Real Clear Politics.)

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By itself that quote is pretty funny, but I think too few people are considering the substance behind it.

Assume Hillary gets the nomination in a way that disenfranchises a significant number of Barack supports. Besides the current suggestion by polls (which I am not claiming make the result inevitable) that she cannot beat McCain in the general election, there is significant risk of causing long term damage to the Democratic party. Regardless of your view about him, it is difficult to deny that he has brought in new voters in various demographics plus appeals to a broad number of people in the so-called middle. If there is even the hint of unfair play, these people are going to be alienated from the party.

I am not saying people should vote for one candidate or the other, I am just asking that people require a fairness in the process then accept the results. When the process is deemed unfair, then no one will be satisfied - regardless of whether their candidate "wins".

The pledged delegate count, the popular vote, and the specific states won by each candidate.

Well, considering that Clinton is behind in the pledged delegate count, AND the popular vote, the only positive at this point is the states won by each candidate. And consider this: some of them are going to be blue no matter who the Democratic candidate is. Also, Clinton would finish behind both McCain and Obama in some of the states that Obama won, so, the Clinton campaign is reduced to talking about Ohio at this point. Wow. That would convince me to go fund raise.

Please. Someone make this stop.

It's simply astounding to me that people with big money to donate to political campaigns can be so stupid to believe a pitch like this, given Obama's lead in all those categories.

Then again, it's astounding to me that the Clintons think they can emerge from a campaign like this with any kind of respect or decency intact, or that people like me will just vote Democratic anyway, regardless.

Because they're very, very wrong...

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It's tragic that millions of voters and thousands of donors are not as smart as you are. Perhaps you should be running?

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come on. seriously. how can she win without thwarting the democratic process and stealing it with supers? how?

She can't. I can't imagine any superdel who is not committed to anyone yet, to go on the record supporter her. These are elected officials. They want to be re-elected. Think they want to be associated with all that Ferraro nonsense. She has just given her campaign the bubonic plague. No superdel is going to want to go anywhere near it.

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If Hillary's campaign was simply about electability, based on greater blue collar support in Ohio, I'd disagree with her overall conclusion, but I wouldn't object to her being in the race. However, her only realistic goal is to make Obama toxic to superdelegates; debatable arguments about electability will not cause a massive swing of superdelegates in her direction.

And to make him toxic, you have to diminish him as much as possible. The argument that he's not qualified but McCain is is only part of that argument. That his success is only due to his race fits neatly with the "unqualified" argument. But the Rezko thing as well; given no evidence of wrong doing, that too is simply an attempt to make him unelectable in the fall and is no way an argument about who is the better candidate.

It doesn't sound like Hillary or her surrogates made that point to the fundraisers, probably because the fundraisers -- presumably Democrats -- would be appalled at such a strategy. But it's there. It's obvious. It's their only option.

In the words of Sinbad, "Where's my invite?"

I'm beginning to wonder if she's cracking up. I can't tell if she's displaying some kind of garden variety denial or outright delusion. Next thing you know she'll climb a tree and refuse to come down.

Reminds you of W, doesn't it?

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I disagree. I think she will hold her breath and turn blue. Right before the Pennsylvania primary.

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Unfortunately, it looks like they're going to stay the course because their campaign has turned a corner.

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Well, duh. Of course she said that. What is she going to say, "We're going to lose this"? Even if that is the reality of the thing.

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In regards to the headline: As opposed to saying: "We're not going to win this?"

THis isn't news people...

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I think it's fair to say at this point that, unless Obama has an Elliott Spitzer-style meltdown, Hillary is pretty much finished for this year.

I personally think she's a better candidate than is reflected by her advisers (though she did hire them...).

This just wasn't her year. I just hope she doesn't damage the Party too much before she sucks it up and does the right thing. Unless she scorches too much earth, she'll be formidable in 2016.

No, Hil, you're going to lose this and lose ugly.

The fundraiser adds that there were expressions of frustration with DNC chair Howard Dean for not doing enough to resolve the Florida and Michigan situations.

Oh right, it's Howard Dean's fault that FL and MI violated DNC rules, so naturally he should be deferring to the entitled nominee and seating those delegates as selected! Dean has been eminently fair in this, giving FL and MI a second chance to meet the rules by scheduling a contest after February 5. The DNC never promised to help fund a second campaign in the event some states decided to play chicken with the DNC. It was unthinkable that any state would risk losing all its delegates by violating the DNC rules so why should there be any mechanism in place for the DNC to address this... except to disqualify those states' delegates? What else does HRC think he should be doing?? More silliness...

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Okay--Greg has proved his worth here. Who else but someone with a sympathy for Clinton could have scored this scoop from a Hillary fundraiser!

Good work, Greg!

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Hmm, a reporter, maybe?

Geez, people, get a clue! The reason the right wing constantly accuses the media of bias is because undermining people's trust in the media serves their purpose of winning by lying their asses off. Accusing anyone who reports something you don't like of bias doesn't help the progressive cause. It's like saying a mystery writer is guilty of murder.

A comforting thought has occurred to me: the longer she stays in, the more money she's going to have to raise, and the more difficult it's going to be to raise it.

Even if one overlooks the lack of basic decency and judgment, it amazes that she should aspire to be POTUS and CIC without even the least understanding of elementary arithmetic.

It is unlikely that her paid advisers will ever explain the mathematical impossibilities to her. Like Trippi, they'll bill the campaign for their fat fees so they can chill after her defeat in a beach in Florida, or in their case, Puerto Rico.

She's about as good with money as GWB was with the Iraq war budget:

From Matt Yglesias in The Atlantic

Nearly $100,000 went for party platters and groceries before the Iowa caucuses, even though the partying mood evaporated quickly. Rooms at the Bellagio luxury hotel in Las Vegas consumed more than $25,000; the Four Seasons, another $5,000. [...] The firm that includes Mark Penn, Mrs. Clinton’s chief strategist and pollster, and his team collected $3.8 million for fees and expenses in January; in total, including what the campaign still owes, the firm has billed more than $10 million for consulting, direct mail and other services, an amount other Democratic strategists who are not affiliated with either campaign called stunning.
http://matthewyglesias.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/02/spending_spree.php

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It's certainly not news that Hillary is telling her fundraisers that she can still win.

The most interesting bit is missing -- how they reacted. I wonder if Greg's contact could convey any sense of this.

Even if you accept that her plan for a superdelegate-driven victory is plausible, these people must be wondering how such a divided party can ever win the general election.

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The reaction of the donors is the most important part of the story that's missing. Greg, can you elaborate more on what the mysterious fundraiser told you?

I think that the lack of any mention of a response might be the most telling. Had their been major support and enthusiasm, it would have been parroted. Loud and proud. Since this report is devoid of emotion, one can only assume the negative might be a real possibility.

She was grilled for the whole time she was there. I bet that when Obama passes the threshold of having enough delegates to over come Michigan and Florida, you will see a sudden agreement to seat them as is, screw a re-vote. If the math we have seen holds steady, that should come soon. This is not going to stop until that line is crossed.

Come on O-Team - keep those supers coming. Drip Drip fills the bucket.

Does it not freak anybody else out that Hillary Clinton's peeps are holding meetings for special donors that have special interests to plug the idea that special delegates with special super powers are going to hold the key to crowning Hillary our nominee no matter what the hell the rest of us little voter-types might have to say about it?

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Translation: We're arrogant and irrational enough to stay in this race even though we have virtually no chance of winning the nomination without fracturing the party and costing the Democrats the White House. If we can't win, we'll take Obama down with us!


Talk about living inside a bubble. Jeez.

Supers aren't deaf, dumb & blind, unless they choose to be.

I have a feeling they're wide awake for this one, have their calculators out and know this isn't 1984.

It's the internet age... they are being watched... they all know it.

Whatever. Everybody duck after she gets her cash because you haven't seen ugly yet.

Three data points? She's going to lose on every single one! Great strategy, Hill.

I dearly hope she does lose this . . . and loses big, *and* loses ugly. All justice cries for it.

But I fear that the Clinton campaign's determination to bully the party establishment into handing her the nomination may, in the end, be the deciding factor. The only question the party faces is how, once it happens, they cover themselves for the painful two-or-three news cycles of outrage before the MSM goes to some new and distracting story and all the gutter depravity that has come before begins to . . . fade . . . from the minds of the public and everything goes back to bidness as usual.

They've got a few months to work out some mechanism along those lines (remember, allowing her to steal the nomination is the 'responsible' course under this system). That's more than enough time.

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I see her game here. If she somehow manages to score the popular vote lead, she'll claim that Obama is the one who's "stealing" the election. She'll go out to her supporters, who have now been told that, let's face it, Barack is only where he is because of the color of his skin, and she'll insist that it's he or is not playing fairly.

That is of course, if she can even catch up to the popular vote...or if she can even manage to last until PA. At the rate she's going, there probably won't even be a Democratic party this summer.


what does it mean to win the popular vote?
the votes aren't apples and apples. some are dem only, some allow mail in for a month. some caucuses don't even report the vote totals.

everyone agreed before playing that touching home plate the most number of times would win the game. Hillary has hit more triples and has more stolen bases, so wants everyone to declare her the winner, even though she is way down in runs.

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Hillary's new campaign manager is Ashley Alexandra Dupre, better known as "Kristen". Dupre's strategy calls for defining Obama as ready on Day One to be Client #10.

Randi Rhodes in Air America today was saying Hillary will go third-party to spoil 2008 for Barack.

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I heard that too.

I don't think it'll happen for one reason.

Traitor Joe may have won Senatorial election in CT, but he was never President. The Clintons have a legacy and still have some good will in this party. Should Hillary fracture this party, they will go down not as the best political family in the latter half of the 20th Century, but instead as the worst political pariahs in Democratic history.

Their egos, even considering how much they'd like to regain the White House, will prevent them from doing that. Well, their egos and two other reasons:

First: They would lose an Independent bid HUUUUUGE. It would gift-wrap the presidency to McCain.

Second: They'd have to be Froot-Loops if they think they'd be welcomed back into the Democratic party for another go-round in 2012. They'd be treated exactly as Liebermann is now. As a f*cking joke.

It'll never happen.

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that will never happen.
why?

because she owes to many favors to people that expect to get them.
who in their right minds would finance her?

Screw progressivism, the Democratic Party and winning the White House! Pick me, superdelegates! I've EARNED it!
The Clintons truly are a cancer on the Democratic Party. I never thought I'd say it, but after the last few days, I can't reach any other conclusion.
Go Walnuts!(?)

No, Hillary's strategy is shrewd. The first two "data points" seem to favor Obama, but she will frame the pledged-delegate count and the popular vote as virutal "ties" because they are so close. (And, you have to admit, those two data points will be very close -- 51/49 close, if not closer.)

Therefore (Hillary will argue), because the first two data points are too close to be determinative, the "states won" data point should be determinative. That will be the crux of her argument: I can win in the states that have to be won.

I'm not saying she's right, but this is clearly what she's doing.

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Actually, I do believe Obama is up 5-6 points on both metrics right now and is expected to maintain advantages of roughly that size.

53-47 is pretty definitive.

Also, she doesn't really win the "states won" argument, for a variety of reasons:

-the whole argument is logically incoherent. As should be obvious to anyone with a kindergarten-level education, winning a primary does not guarantee winning or even being strong in a given state in the general. Conversely, losing a primary does not preclude one from being strong in that state in the general. See: Bill Clinton, who lost Maryland, Mass, and NH in the primary before winning all 3 in the general, just for example.

-And the "stronger" argument doesn't even follow, either, since the candidates will be appealing to entirely different population groups in the general than they had to in the primary. As such, it should be no surprise that Obama actually runs stronger than Hillary in GE matchup polls of states she won in the primaries (NH, NV come to mind) whereas, at times, she runs stronger than him in states he won (SUSA had her running better in Missouri, e.g.)

-And he's actually won a whole host of important swing states (that Kerry both won and lost), and is expected to win others. These include: Iowa, Colorado, Wisconsin, Missouri, Virginia, North Carolina, Oregon, and Washington.

So basically, no. She's losing the popular vote decisively. She's losing pledged delegates decisively. What's more, this should be obvious by the fact that just about anyone who takes an actual look at the numbers says his leads are too big for her to overcome. If she can't catch up, than it's not so close it's basically a tie.

And her "important states" argument is both wrong on the merits and logically incoherent.

So yeah. She loses. This may sound like a great "super delegate" argument if you assume the supers are as stupid as, say, Wolf Blitzer, but of course, luckily for us, they're not, which is why Obama has continued to pick up their support post-TX and OH and Hillary...hasn't really seen her super-D #s spike at all</