Hillary Wins Texas, Networks Project
MSNBC and Fox project that Hillary wins Texas, giving her victories in both her crucial firewall states, and handing her three out of four victories tonight, ensuring that this campaign will continue, possibly all the way until the convention.
She leads Obama 51%-48% in Texas, with 74% reporting. It's a much tighter margin than in Ohio, as expected. But the win allows Hillary to claim that she's won all the big states, an argument that will make it easier for her to argue that she has a fair claim to continuing in the contest, despite her big deficit in pledged delegates.
The Clinton campaign will also seize on the victory in all the big states to argue that despite Obama's big pledged delegate lead, there's no clear victor here, and hence that neither candidate can win without super-delegates -- potentially setting the stage for a bruising intraparty battle with no clear resolution or end.















I call for Obama to concede.
He just lost three in a row, including Ohio. No one has ever one the presidency without winning Ohio. I heard that on MSNBC, so it must be the gospel truth, right?
Concede Obama! For the party! For the country!
March 5, 2008 1:00 AM | Reply | Permalink
" No one has ever one the presidency without winning Ohio."
That's because the nomination is usually decided long before Ohio votes.
March 5, 2008 1:12 AM | Reply | Permalink
"No one has ever one the presidency without being a white male"
March 5, 2008 2:22 AM | Reply | Permalink
lol, exactly.
March 5, 2008 5:32 AM | Reply | Permalink
" No one has ever one the presidency without winning Ohio."
That's because the nomination is usually decided long before Ohio votes.
March 5, 2008 1:12 AM | Reply | Permalink
3 in a row?? Wow, anyone who loses that many in a row has GOT to drop out!
Come on... Obama won 12 in a row (if you count VT going first), each by at least 17 points. It's impossible for Hillary to catch up in pledged delegates, and you want Obama to drop out? Please...
March 5, 2008 1:20 AM | Reply | Permalink
Hillary had a good night. It's been awhile.
March 5, 2008 1:03 AM | Reply | Permalink
Washiongton establishment, status quo, corporate-driven, Bush-Clinton-McCain poliitcs had a TERRIFIC night. Ohio and Texas love the Clintons and the Bushes. It is very scary folks. The Republicans won the Democratic primaries tonight too.
March 5, 2008 4:45 AM | Reply | Permalink
God help us all. President McCain.
March 5, 2008 1:03 AM | Reply | Permalink
This is good news, FOR JOHN MCCAIN!!
March 5, 2008 1:03 AM | Reply | Permalink
This beautiful night has been dedicated to Josh Marshall, Arianna Huffington and Kos.
March 5, 2008 1:06 AM | Reply | Permalink
Don't forget The Field.Com.
Obama will have Texas tomorrow.
But, even if he doesn't...he still has the delegates, people.
March 5, 2008 1:07 AM | Reply | Permalink
You people are going to have to realise that the reason there are super delegates is so that we don't get stuck with another loser. Read all the exit polls since day one, this guy will get creamed in the fall. If you review the events of the last week you will not be surprised by tonights results. I see very little hope for his future. Maybe things will now change for the better.
March 5, 2008 1:20 AM | Reply | Permalink
You can believe that. But direct head to head polling always shows Obama beating McCain every time. The problem is Hillary and her followers are all totally delusional.
March 5, 2008 2:16 AM | Reply | Permalink
Congratulations to Hillary for the win in the Texas primary.
March 5, 2008 1:08 AM | Reply | Permalink
Watch for it: HRC will use her primary win in TX, contrasted against her (impending) caucus loss, to illustrate the undemocratic nature of the caucus process.
March 5, 2008 1:12 AM | Reply | Permalink
Um, Obama's gonna win TX in primary delegates. Then, there's the caucus delegates. He'll win maybe as many delegates in TX, in fact, as Clinton will in OH. See here: link
Also, anyone notice when OH was called? About 9:55 CST. TX was called at 9:55 PST. Hmmm, I wonder why that time is so special?
March 5, 2008 1:14 AM | Reply | Permalink
Sometimes I think that this primary will never end.
March 5, 2008 1:17 AM | Reply | Permalink
How in the world does this mean "Hillary Wins Texas"? Just another example of the anti-Hillary bias I guess.
March 5, 2008 1:18 AM | Reply | Permalink
Obama will pull more delegates out of Texas than Hillary, and may very well end up more overall from today's primaries overall.
Hillary's entire campaign is now based on convincing super delegates (and the public) that it's okay for her to lose the pledged delegate count and still be appointed the dem nominee for 2008
here's to hoping people don't buy that BS
March 5, 2008 1:18 AM | Reply | Permalink
Congrats to the Clinton supporters on this blog.
Lessons from tonight...
The Dems will fight it out till the very end. Repub chances are greatly improved.
Obama needs better message/press control. Clinton spun what is essentially a save (from a 20 point lead) into a "comeback."
Going very, very negative works. Clinton still has a 50% negative rating. Obama will have use it and go much more negative with her. Reactive ads are not as good as proactive ads. Gloves off.
Clinton will tag team with McCain to win the nomination.
McCain would greatly prefer to run against her and will let her do it since he benefits.
This isn't so bad, McCain will have to divide his fire.
Denver is going to be fun (and probably tragic).
March 5, 2008 1:22 AM | Reply | Permalink
Get real! Your man, or love boy, has won 11 in a row and he was supposed to have all the momentum to carry him over the finish line. He did not. Everybody expects the margins to close as most of them are attributable to clinton's name recognition. The fact remains even with so much presence of Obama in these two states, with him out-spending her 4:1 with help from Union bosses, she still manages to win. That's all it counts!
Ask you a question! God forbidden if Obama won this nomination and suppose he trails McCain by 10 points one week ahead of election but ends up losing by 1%. You claim it as a victory for Obama?
March 5, 2008 7:44 AM | Reply | Permalink
Do you honestly think it's appropriate to keep referring to a 46-year-old man as a "love boy," you stupid cunt?
March 5, 2008 10:08 AM | Reply | Permalink
Do you honestly think it's appropriate to call someone a stupid cunt bremn61?
Are you uncomfortable with your man love for Love Boy? Really, there's nothing wrong with it.
March 5, 2008 9:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
AT 1:26 a.m. the New York Times gives Obama the caucuses by 56% to 44%. That's a larger margin that her popular vote win.
What's this about her winning Texas?
March 5, 2008 1:25 AM | Reply | Permalink
moral of the story, i guess, is that going "super negative" really does work. which is a pretty sad indictment of the judgment and critical thinking skills of the American public.
the media narrative over the next few days will be sickening: "Hillary's comeback", despite the fact that she was 20 points ahead in Ohio and Texas less than 2 weeks ago and has never been "down" outside of the margin of error in either state.
March 5, 2008 1:35 AM | Reply | Permalink
The kitchen sink strategy has worked. Expect more of the same. Just peachy. Can't wait.
March 5, 2008 1:48 AM | Reply | Permalink
And you know that McCain will not lay a glove on the queen. So Obama will be getting hammered from both sides from the next month. He'll either be tested by fire or, well... I don't want to think about it.
March 5, 2008 1:52 AM | Reply | Permalink
Obama is going to win the Texas Caucus, and he's going to end up with more delegates than Hillary out of that state.
March 5, 2008 1:57 AM | Reply | Permalink
In fact I haven't heard a single commentator (Rachel Maddow included) mention how much ground he made up in TX in two weeks.
I agree, it's gloves off. It's a clear criticism of Obama that he's pie in the sky and naive. It's time to prove that you can be hopeful for a new direction in this country while still taking care of business. Rachel Maddow just said that she doesn't think people shy away from him because they think he doesn't have the experience or policy credentials...they are afraid he's too timid and can't fight.
I'm depressed. I can't bring myself to go to bed...looking for solace on the blogs I guess. I just don't see how a protacted negative race helps in November. I think there needs to be more time to heal the wounds and bring the party together. John McCain starts tomorrow...
March 5, 2008 1:57 AM | Reply | Permalink
"In fact I haven't heard a single commentator (Rachel Maddow included) mention how much ground he made up in TX in two weeks."
The exact same thing happened on Super Tuesday. Matthews even called it an upset when Hillary won MA (which, I think, most polls showed she would win by double digits).
March 5, 2008 2:02 AM | Reply | Permalink
I felt the same way after GWB was selected in 2000 and again in 2004. I would have felt the same again if HRC had not won tonight.
Try to remind yourself that it's just an election, not the end of the world. Things will work out no matter who becomes the president. It's tough but it'll pass. Best of luck with getting through this.
March 5, 2008 3:43 AM | Reply | Permalink
"No one has ever one the presidency without winning Ohio."
I think you meant won, and coincidentally John McCain won Ohio too.
Let's not forget that McCain currently has a base problem in the general election. The only thing that will solve it for him is HRC getting the nomination.
To that point, given her negative, mudslinging, fighting spirit these past 4 days it's likely that HRC will ensure that the Democrats snatch defeat from the jaws of victory in this election. She can't red-phone McCain in the election, and he has a few well-known pieces of legislation with his name on it like McCain-Feingold that appeal to independents. The experience argument doesn't work against him, nor does the change argument. McCain will be able to point out that another Clinton Administration will be "Back to the Future" all over again, and it will be more Lincoln bedroom drama.
Obama can be a true anti-war candidate and call McCain's judgements into question. Moving forward I hope that Obama will now call HRC out on her real achievements in the Senate, which are not much aside from wagging her finger at General Petraeus over the surge...oh, and McCain gets to do an "I told you" so on that one one too.
What is the concrete example of leadership on national security in HRC's famed dossier of experience? Please tell me. And in the Senate too? Her leadership on healthcare reform in the 90's was dreadful and her record in the Senate isn't stuffed with any real examples of leadership either. Her campaign has also been poorly led; let's not forget that tonight Obama cut into a very large lead that she enjoyed in both Ohio and Texas only 2 weeks ago.
She's the smoke and mirrors candidate, and is also the one behind in pledged delegates, not Obama. But her own political ambition and sense of entitlement will not allow her to leave until she decimates any sense of unity the Democratic party might have had to win the White House.
Congratulations on winning tonight by going negative Hillary, and bravo to those in the Democratic party who rewarded her for doing so. How inspiring it will be to have Grandpa -vs- the Old Battle Ax in the Fall.
Oh, and one more uplifting comment about her new campaign mantra after this win...how about HRC expropriating Obama's "yes we can" to both "yes she can" and "yes we will". She and her supporters can't even organize a clear message around a stolen campaign slogan. What genius. Absoluetly awe inspiring rhetoric.
March 5, 2008 2:03 AM | Reply | Permalink
Negative campaigning definitely worked, just as it usually does.
Let me be more precise in what I think happened. Voters all over the country started out unfamiliar with Obama and Clinton had huge poll leads nearly everywhere. This is particularly true for the white working class demographic key to Ohio. They started out skeptical of this unfamiliar black guy with a foreign-sounding name.
As voters get to know Obama, these leads tend to vanish or reverse. Voters get comfortable with him. Or, they did until now. The attack ads interfered with the process. People who were already uncomfortable with Obama stayed that way because they were given reasons to (whether there was any validity to these reasons or not), ranging from inexperience, to dishonesty (the Canada flap), to personal corruption (Rezko), and even to crude bigotry (the Muslim smears).
March 5, 2008 2:13 AM | Reply | Permalink
I just use a delegate calculator for the Texas primary along with the most current (I think) district results and came up with this:
Obama: 67 delegates
Clinton: 59 delegates
Calculator: http://www.lonestarproject.net/DemPrimary.htm
Results: http://precinctconventionresults.txdemocrats.org/election08district
I assumed equal turnout increases over 2004. Also, many districts are still reporting fewer than 40%.
March 5, 2008 4:48 AM | Reply | Permalink
use -> used (my kingdom for an edit button!)
March 5, 2008 5:01 AM | Reply | Permalink
Congrats to the HRC campaign...she needed to win tonight and she did...I agree with Josh's sentiments that its now all about can BO hit back as hard as he was.
It will be interesting to see HRC cry out when the Obama camp goes negative, and from the tone of his camp, its about to get real dirty.
Its on now!!!
March 5, 2008 5:56 AM | Reply | Permalink
Why is everybody calling Texas when, at 6:30 am Wednesday, only 36% of the caucus precints info is available and he is winning it? The primary results being so close, can't the caucus affect it?
March 5, 2008 6:29 AM | Reply | Permalink
Obama will face a lot worse negative campaigning in the fall. Josh is right- this is when he has to learn how to fight back without stepping on his core message. If he can't do it now, he can't do it in the fall. So I'm not with the doom and gloom brigade- either the rest of this run will prepare him to be a much more formidable candidate in the general, or else he won't be able to cut it and we'll be better off with Clinton after all. Either way, not a negative scenario for the party at all, despite what Republican concern trolls pretend to think.
March 5, 2008 6:30 AM | Reply | Permalink
Steve, I agree with you in principle but disagree to the extent that one of HRC's negative attacks centered on how she and McCain were running on experience and Obama on one speech. The clear implication being that he was unfit to be president.
That is fine for a Republican to assert but it crosses the line within the Democratic party in my view. That, and the fact that she kept the muslim-smear alive by simply not saying no when asked about her thoughts on his faith, Obama is not a Muslim and to say otherwise is scurrilous and false. Those two very recent negative attacks may rough Obama up, but they also damage him within his own party if he does get the nomination.
March 5, 2008 7:09 AM | Reply | Permalink
"But the win allows Hillary to claim that she's won all the big states, an argument that will make it easier for her to argue that she has a fair claim to continuing in the contest, despite her big deficit in pledged delegates."
No her win doesn't allow Hillary to make this claim, you & the rest of the media allow this. Since her campaign introduced this "story line" weeks ago, the media has gradually bought in & now they spout it like it's truth. It's as if Obama hasn't won any big states & what difference does it make anyway? It's not as if either Dem candidate can't carry California or New York.
Shame of the lot of you for allowing her fairy tales to continue.
March 5, 2008 7:59 AM | Reply | Permalink
March 5, 2008 8:14 AM | Reply | Permalink
CNN Obama blunder on 3 AM call
An interesting response from Obama today regarding the 3 AM phone call ad.
Obama questioned whether Hillary had the experience to pick up that 3 AM call.
The interviewer then asked him to cite his security experience.
His response? "That's the point, neither of us do."
Not the best answer, especially if he goes against McCain. The speech against Iraq will only go so far.
WHAT AN IDIOT!!! SEE YOU IN THE COMMERCIAL
March 5, 2008 8:23 AM | Reply | Permalink
This is an unforced error on his part that started when he made his own "3 am" rebuttal ad. NEVER passively accept your opponent's frame.
His campaign has some adjustments to make. I think they will.
March 5, 2008 8:29 AM | Reply | Permalink
I hope Mark Penn will finally be fired alongside his ridiculously high consulting fee. This is the adjustment I will demand from the Clinton campaign.
March 5, 2008 8:40 AM | Reply | Permalink