Hillary Needs An Obama Collapse In Order To Win
The New York Times lays out the roadmap for a Hillary nomination despite her apparently insurmountable gap in the pledged delegates, involving overwhelming victories in the remaining primaries and a severe drop in Barack Obama's poll numbers in order to justify a nomination via supers.
In summary: "Mrs. Clinton's best hope now is that Mr. Obama, as a candidate, suffers a political collapse akin to what has happened to the subprime mortgage market, a view shared by aides in both campaigns." However, even this strategy might have been stymied by the relatively good reception to Obama's speech on race relations, and the subsequent endorsement from Bill Richardson.








Comments (64)
Of course, but it has been that way for a while now.
The real question is what is Clinton's next line of attack?
March 25, 2008 10:01 AM | Reply | Permalink
Hillary needs Obama to be vaporized in falling meteor shower in order to win!!!
McCain/Clinton '08!!!!!!!!!!
March 25, 2008 12:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
The next line of attack will be something about Obama "going on vacation" during the middle of the most important democratic primary in genarations. Coming in 5-4-3...
March 25, 2008 1:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obviously attacking Obama on Rev. Wright. Obama's speech on race did much to sqelch the controversy. That is the only thing Hillary has do go on. Since they all agree nothing short of a tsunami will stop Obama. Hillary must create a race war in order to win.
The the headline "He wouldn't have been my pastor"
shows the Clinton Campaign has already started this line.
My God, and this person can convince half of the Democratic Party she is president material?
We are doomed. Democrats - the party of logic, race, religion, ethic and social equality.
All republicans need to do is point to Hillary's actions during this time to convince voters that Dems are not who they say they are.
Who do we have to thank for this? Hillary Clinton, her campaign and her supporters.
March 25, 2008 2:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
What is with the media's "glass 1/2 full"...
wait scratch that, "glass 1/4 full"...
no, no that's not right, "glass 1/10 full"...
Yuck, ok one more try.
What is with the media's "glass 1/56.44 full" view on Hillary's chances to win? At what point does your chance to win become so small that the most logical story is not how you might still pull it out, but that you have lost?
There is a media bias alright, but it is not against Hillary Clinton.
March 25, 2008 10:11 AM | Reply | Permalink
What is with the media's "glass 1/56.44 full"
Shouldn't that be 100/5644ths? Or 25/1411ths? It's not good to mix fractions and decimals
March 25, 2008 11:05 AM | Reply | Permalink
Why, will I get a tummy ache?
March 25, 2008 1:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
You are spot on. The media has perpetuated this idea of nail-biter race when it's been over since WI, as Axelrod said if you remember. Here's a good story from politico. http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0308/9149.html
March 25, 2008 11:50 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yes, it has been that way for awhile now, Grover M. But the significance of the NY Times story and the others like it is that the media is finally understanding that is the reality, rather than continuing to portray the race as essentially tied. When it isn't.
March 25, 2008 10:17 AM | Reply | Permalink
The empress has no clothes, people. Any bets on when she'll finally concede, or do you think she'll go down kicking and screaming and turn into one of those crazy people mumbling to herself on the sidewalk, referring to herself as "Madame President"?
March 25, 2008 10:17 AM | Reply | Permalink
And yet, she stays in the race, to the detriment of everyone. Shameful.
March 25, 2008 10:18 AM | Reply | Permalink
Old news to us supporters.
March 25, 2008 10:19 AM | Reply | Permalink
So yesterday with a Philadelphia paper Hillary once again floated the notion that pledged delegates "under the rules" are free to vote for whomever they want at the convention (technically true but highly unlikely since they are selected based on being diehard supporters). Please party leaders, stop the insanity, I can't take this much longer!
March 25, 2008 10:25 AM | Reply | Permalink
Doh! Judas New York Times!
March 25, 2008 10:25 AM | Reply | Permalink
Good luck with hoping that Obama has a colossal collapse. One of the reasons I'm so sold on him is his astounding cool under pressure.
I just can't wait for the debates between Obama and McCain. I hope McCain loses it at least once.
March 25, 2008 10:26 AM | Reply | Permalink
DOn't get me wrong, I understand that it is good for the media to finally concede that this race is not close. I just wonder why they took so long to come to this conclusion.
And I still wonder what Hillary's next line of attack is going to be to make Obama less electable to the Supers.
March 25, 2008 10:27 AM | Reply | Permalink
Next? She's already doing it.
March 25, 2008 10:42 AM | Reply | Permalink
Her road map, as murky as it might be, has been laid out by Jonathan Chait in The New Republic two weeks ago, and David Brooks today in the Op-Ed pages of the NY Times. He also offers the most compelling explanation for why Clinton does not grasp what she might wind up doing to the party: too many years in the mega-spotlight of Clintonian politics.
He actually made sense. It's not that she's so hellbent on getting her way. It's that she's been so long in the business of showmanship politics that she can not, any longer, recognize reality. In that light, many politicians would be behaving the same way.
March 25, 2008 10:28 AM | Reply | Permalink
Here's a link to the brooks piece. It's actually a good read.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/25/opinion/25brooks.html?ref=opinion
I respectfully disagree with the conclusion though about showmanship politics. I really don't think clinton thrives on showmanship politics, mr. bill does but not h. clinton. Actually, she seems very uncomfortable on the trail and not enjoying the experience.
My hunch is that she is running for 2012. She is trying to bring down obama and play up mccain so that mccain wins in november and "she can ride to the rescue in 2012." There is no other logical explanation and why are all these people giving money to a lost cause, unless for 2012.
March 25, 2008 10:47 AM | Reply | Permalink
If this race was the other way around, she would be calling for Obama to drop out daily for the better of the party and America.
March 25, 2008 10:32 AM | Reply | Permalink
I agree strongly with this. Its part of the double standard that Obama has had to deal with. Not only has he had to deal with this, he has had to deal with fighting the Right without complete Democratic support (Clinton supporters certainly didn't help him), fighting McCain, fighting Bill Clinton, and fighting Hillary Clinton.
Not bad if you ask me.
March 25, 2008 11:21 AM | Reply | Permalink
If the circumstances were reversed and Barack was loosing the delegate race, number of primaries/caucus , popular vote and money race. Just think of the PRESSURE he would be under to STOP harming the election !! I am so sick of thedouble standard !
March 25, 2008 10:36 AM | Reply | Permalink
NyT closes:
As if Mrs. Clinton's predicament were the result of poor fortune, not a formidable opponent and her inept campaign
March 25, 2008 10:40 AM | Reply | Permalink
I wish the media would just say it for what it is, each delegate she uses to hijack the election and overturn the will of the people equals the disenfranchisement of over 10,000 for superdelegates, and anywhere from 4,000 to 12,000+ for pledged delegates, depending on state and turnout. This is her only path to the nomination, basically stuffing the ballots with 10,000 at a time, while at the same time whining about Florida and Michigan and the importance of every single vote. The hypocrisy is astounding, just as is the fact that NO ONE will point out the obvious. Here is my full take on it:
http://www.thepersonalispolitical.com/2008/03/hillarys-only-path-to-nomination.html
March 25, 2008 10:41 AM | Reply | Permalink
THIS IS EXCELLENT NEWS!! FOR HILLARY!!!
March 25, 2008 10:44 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yes, next. She has to ramp it up further to get to her goal of winning over the Supers.
The current lines of attack are not working. She will need more ammunition to scare the crap out of the Supers about Obama.
March 25, 2008 10:55 AM | Reply | Permalink
eh, intrade has Clinton at 20 or so, Obama at 80. The smart money says she has an outside shot. And it looks like Wright hasn't dented Obama that badly, but we won't really know until PA. It Clinton clobbers him, who knows? And I think the more it sinks in that Obama has a long and intimate relationship with a crazy fruitcake fanatic with crazy shit, ignorant and ugly ideas, it might hurt him after all. It should anyway.
I think the US is a country of morons though, so I actually am rooting for Obama. I laughed my ass off both times W won. Obama will be just as much of a loser : )
March 25, 2008 10:55 AM | Reply | Permalink
You can't tell anything by Pennsylvania. Pennsylvania still has a political machine. She should win in a landslide there because the machine is on her side.
By the way, Hillary Clinton only wins in places where there is an already built machine to help her.
March 25, 2008 11:05 AM | Reply | Permalink
What makes the people on intrade "smart"?
March 25, 2008 11:13 AM | Reply | Permalink
By the way, if you 'laughed your ass off' when W won and clearly think everyone in the U.S. is a moron then obviously you Hate America a lot more then rev. Wright.
March 25, 2008 11:14 AM | Reply | Permalink
Hillary is not trying to get the nomination this year. She is trying to assure that Barack Obama is not elected President this year so that she (Hillary) can win the nomination in 4 years.
March 25, 2008 11:02 AM | Reply | Permalink
So your saying there's a chance....
hat tip to Ben for his stylistic moviequote genius
March 25, 2008 11:03 AM | Reply | Permalink
An Obama collapse is virtually inevitable. The big question is "When?".
A) Before the Convention?
B) Between Convention and Election?
C) Between Election and Inauguration?
D) After Inauguration?
In terms of long-run damage to progressive prospects, (D) is probably the mostly disastrous.
March 25, 2008 11:04 AM | Reply | Permalink
By chance are you referring to the clintons 1st two terms in office? They decimated the democratic party and they did nothing to promote a democratic agenda. So either you want to relive that nightmare or you want president mccain. The only shot to change the direction of the country is with obama. We already know what will happen with the clintons and mccain. Same old, same old stagnation.
March 25, 2008 11:23 AM | Reply | Permalink
Nothing to see people, move along.
Just a troll....
March 25, 2008 12:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obviously Obama will need to make a corkscrew approach to the nomination to avoid the constant sniping from embittered HRC supporters. That's the true threshold for a Commander in Chief.
March 25, 2008 1:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's not just reality she has a problem with. It's right and wrong. If she couldn't for one single minute, realize the race relations is a core progressive/Democratic value and give it its due, then she's lost touch with anything decent. And she is unfit to be president.
Obama would have done it for her. I'm positive of that.
Obama will do what needs to be done to win HIllary supporters, and he will do it with grace and empathy. By Hillary's snarky reaction to the speech, and still making it about her, it is clear me to she will do nothing to win Obama supporters if she gets the nomination (God forbid).
That process needs to start very, very soon. Obama needs this time to re-build his support with the Hillary supporters who will be very unhappy. If you wait until August, then it's a two-front war. That would be devastating.
He weathered the Wright crisis taking a hit, but he is rebounding. What is of crucial importance is that Hillary did not rise very much through all that. What did rise were her unfavorable ratings throughout that period. And she is still viewed more unfavorably than Obama, after the Month from Hell. He held onto his support. It's of vital importance to recognize that fact.
March 25, 2008 11:12 AM | Reply | Permalink
While it's heartening to see the MSM and various parts of the blogging world finally take notice what has been obvious for weeks now, it needs to be made just as clear what the CLintons over all strategy maybe now, the 2012 nomination.
How many different ways have the Clintons made it clear to anyone wo is listening that McCain is a better choice than Barack? In order to be the nominee in '12, they need to weaken Barack's chances in the general. That, I think, is what their campaign is all about now.
March 25, 2008 11:14 AM | Reply | Permalink
It's hard for me to see how Hillary will do herself any favors with the Democratic base in 2012 by destroying the nominee in 2008.
March 25, 2008 1:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
An Obama collapse is virtually inevitable. The big question is "When?".
O really? Who died and made you Edgar Cayce? Did you see this in your dreams, or what?
You want to share where this conviction of yours came from? What it's based on?
Besides wishful thinking...
March 25, 2008 11:17 AM | Reply | Permalink
I have to tell you, I get nervous whenever I look at Pollster.com's cumulative graph on the side bar. Barack has been flat-lining for quite a while, and his line now shows a slight turn downward. (What a contrast to the soaring rocket of a few short weeks ago!) Hillary's line, on the other hand, is in steep ascent. It looks like we'll soon be witnessing only the second crossover during this entire campaign. If these trends continue and if Hillary wins blowouts in Pennsylvania and Indiana, I could easily see her pulling off an upset at the convention. Stampeding perceptions are the name of the game. There's not a thing rational about it.
Moral: keep soldiering on and take nothing for granted.
March 25, 2008 11:17 AM | Reply | Permalink
Obama is up double digits in Indiana, and will stay there.
The Pollster numbers do not reflect much of the rebound since last Tuesday. I will bet you against a second crossover.
NC has almost the number of delegates as PA (134 to 158). Obama will win NC, and Indiana, and Oregon, and it will be over.
If not before then.
It will take a dead girl or a live boy now.
March 25, 2008 12:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
I see your dead girl and raise you two live boys and a hermaphrodite dwarf.
March 25, 2008 1:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
From the desk of:
Howling Wolfson
Senator Hillary Rambo Clinton's next book will be titled:
IT TAKES A CLINTON TO RAZE OUR PARTY
...
March 25, 2008 11:18 AM | Reply | Permalink
you forgot E and F
E)in 2017, after my Inauguration.
F)in 2018, after I have been impeached.
March 25, 2008 11:22 AM | Reply | Permalink
Too bad for her, it's her collapse that is likely. Especailly after the blow from her baldfaced lie on Bosnia:
From Andrew Sullivan:
When even Tayor Marsh says she blew it. The Bosnia lie is a microcosm of the experience exaggeration on which the entire rationale of her candidacy lies. Clinton does have one solid substantive executive experience and the result of it was that she effectively killed universal healthcare for well over a decade. And she has one transcendent legislative judgment call, Iraq, and it was catastrophically wrong.
Even if she made it out of the primary race, this Swiftboat ad writes itself.
March 25, 2008 11:24 AM | Reply | Permalink
the smart money is smart because it reflects the opinions of people betting real money and making cold calculations, not getting all misty eyed about The Speech or coming in your pants when your see Obama's noble looking face on TV, looking noble and all. If Clinton wins by landslides in PA, WV and KY, and by wide margins in IN and NC, she probably will be the nominee. Not easy, she needs to run the board, but it could happen. Just probably not.
But man, after a few years of Obama, people will slowly realize just what a disaster affirmative action really is, writ large. He really will be a disaster like W, just a different flavor.
March 25, 2008 11:30 AM | Reply | Permalink
The affirmative action candidate? Geraldine, who knew you liked to post on TPM?
You make as much sense as the reader who stated "An Obama collapse is inevitable". Just too funny.
March 25, 2008 11:59 AM | Reply | Permalink
The new PA poll has Clinton 49-39. Two weeks to cut the lead by nine points, four more weeks to finish off the last ten....
March 25, 2008 1:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
the democratic party decided kerry was the most electable in 04. i recognized that as a mistake at the time, and i live in fear of clinton becoming the nominee on the same basis now. if she comes out of denver the republicans will be unified in a way never seen before. swift-boated? she will wish she was only swift-boated. clinton is a disater waiting to happen. her bosnia lie is only a harbinger.
March 25, 2008 11:46 AM | Reply | Permalink
the democratic party decided kerry was the most electable in 04. i recognized that as a mistake at the time, and i live in fear of clinton becoming the nominee on the same basis now. if she comes out of denver the republicans will be unified in a way never seen before. swift-boated? she will wish she was only swift-boated. clinton is a disater waiting to happen. her bosnia lie is only a harbinger.
March 25, 2008 11:46 AM | Reply | Permalink
the smart money is smart because it reflects the opinions of people betting real money and making cold calculations, not getting all misty eyed about The Speech or coming in your pants when your see Obama's noble looking face on TV, looking noble and all. I
Look, if y'all can't contain your bitterness, at least don't belittle my support for my candidate as being "misty-eyed, coming in my pants". I am not emotionally involved with Obama - I made a decision based on actual thought. Your problem seems to be that he inspires people and that's just killing you cause Sen. Clinton doesn't.
March 25, 2008 12:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
It sounds counter-intuitive, but the Obama campaign needs to "go positive" again. Now is the time. The negative stuff hurts Obama more than Clinton. Everyone expects Hillary to be deceitful, duplicitous, and disingenuous, so few of us are surprised when she is. Hey look, Hillary's making stuff up again! No one cares.
The opposite is true for Obama. And while he is able to stay positive himself in his stump and in interviews, his campaign is making the mistake of going tit for tat in the gutter with Howard Wolfson. Who really cares what idiotic thing Bill Clinton has to say? The campaign should be rolling its eyes not freaking out about him. Get on the offense again. And David Plouffe needs to take a couple of days off to get his thoughts together and his head screwed back on straight. He overreacts to even the most inconsequential slight.
I want to see the campaign build on the goodwill that followed the race speech. There is momentum to be squandered there. They shouldn't let that happen.
March 25, 2008 12:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
What would help in Pennsylvania is concrete proposals to deal with the housing crisis and sagging economy.
March 25, 2008 1:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
"But man, after a few years of Obama, people will slowly realize just what a disaster affirmative action really is, writ large."
Are you kidding?
Obama is a superior intellect to either of his rivals.
This won't convince the people who dismiss black candidates out of hand (a well-spoken AA man = "empty suit" automatically), but it convinces enough people to win.
March 25, 2008 12:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
Considering Obama has not been vetted yet in the slightest because of the Obama loving national media, I would say the chances of him having major skeletons in his closet are pretty good.
March 25, 2008 12:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
Your keen insight makes me ask, "You want to buy my swamp in Florida?"
March 25, 2008 1:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
You think he's been able to hide skeletons from what surely must be the fine-tooth comb with which the Clinton campaign has been subjecting his past?
Kindergarten papers, youthful drug use, a shady friend in real estate, and a pastor with a flair for incendiary statements...why bother with this stuff if there is worse to be found? I just don't buy it.
March 25, 2008 3:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sen. Obama is turning the Audacity of Hope into the audacity of nope. The bottom line is that Obama is afraid to let Michigan and Florida vote for fear Clinton will reveal the full breadth of Obama's Wright catastrophe. He simply can't afford for it to be revealed what Wright will cost going forward in states like Michigan and Florida, especially in the general election. He's putting himself above counting the votes. It's not shocking, because he wants to win, but it is short-sided. Make no mistake about it, Clinton needs these two states, needs their popular vote totals. But the reason Clinton didn't take her name off of the ballot in the beginning, as did Obama and other Dems, is that she knew how important Michigan could be in the general election. She was always thinking ahead.
But as bad as the Obama camp wants to declare this race over no one is at the magic number yet and until they are it won't be. Again, he has the advantage. However, he's still not home.
Frankly, it's difficult to see how anyone gets there, especially if Clinton has a big string of wins coming up, which is what Obama is dreading.
Every single Democratic senator and congress person is a "superdelegate." Howard Dean also is responsible for this mess. If they haven't heard from you, now is a good time to let them know that you believe Michigan and Florida's votes need to be counted. Or are we really going to let Obama give John McCain this gift?
March 25, 2008 12:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
Clinton was thinking ahead when she voted to authorize the Iraq War too. She didn't want to be cast as "weak on terror" when she ran for president in 2008. She was thinking ahead by five years. The trouble is, reality didn't follow her script. I would rather have a brilliant improviser like Obama than a president who thinks she can anticpate the outcome years in advance.
March 25, 2008 1:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama is tied with Clinton in recent Michigan polls. Why would he not want to split 128 delegates, and let the state feel important?
As is, any seating of FL/MI delegates disenfranchises me, and all the voters of the 48 states and several territories that followed party rules and kept contests to the DNC schedule.
And Rev. Wright will be as fresh as Teapot Dome by the time summer rolls around.
March 25, 2008 2:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
Howard Dean also is responsible for this mess.
Ok, you are officially a fool.
The reason there is that much excitement out there is largely due to Howard Dean who finally convinced the Democrats to quit listening to the Clintons and the DLC and doing focus group campaigning.
Oy - backwards - they just want to keep dragging us backwards to what doesn't work.
March 25, 2008 12:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
"It will take a dead girl or a live boy now."
Ick!!!
March 25, 2008 2:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
You are absolutely right on, in my opinion, regarding positivity AND David Plouffe--he needs a break.
March 25, 2008 3:32 PM | Reply | Permalink