I really am worried now about how the Clintonite concern trolls will take this.

Rasmussen disagrees---I did challenge you to keep postin the Gallup poll---figuring it would turn around for Obama, who I favor. I feel honor bound to point out---Rasmussen has it the opposite---so far.

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Saturday shows ongoing volatility in the Democratic Presidential Nomination. Nationally, Hillary Clinton now holds a very slight advantage over Barack Obama, 46% to 44%. Before the story broke about his former Pastor, Obama led Clinton by eight percentage points

Quick reaction:

Gallup said that their Tuesday night interviews (same night as the speech) still showed strong Clinton leanings. Obama has made gains on her every day since, taking the lead based on the strength of Friday night(!!) interviews being apparently much more favorable than the Tuesday night ones.

The two exclamation points are because of the long-documented problems with Friday night and Saturday night polling, problems that tend to favor Clinton over Obama. Friday night polls are much more likely to hit working-class and older people, who are more likely to be home, than upper-middle and younger people, who are more likely to be out. Now, to be sure, it'd not be the first time Obama ticked up on Friday night interviews, and they are problematic in general, so I wouldn't read too much into this. But between the glowing coverage of Obama's speech, the two big Iraq and Economy speeches, the Richardson endorsement, the Nagourney piece in the times speculating on whether Clinton can even win at this point, the follow-up Richardson interview where he basically urges Dems to start wrapping this thing up, and now some in the cable news catching on to the meme of "Clinton can't catch up"...and the problems with weekend polling...

I would wait until Wednesday's report on the Sun-Mon-Tue rolling average to try to figure out where the race stands now. That's the thing about these polls, they're somewhat trailing indicators..it's only after all this news has had a chance to trickle down, all these messages to get saturation, and all the problematic weekend polls and polls of days where the message had not yet reached saturation, that we can get an accurate picture of where things are. So, we'll see where things stand Wednesday.

"It would appear that Obama's big speech on Tuesday, combined with the Bill Richardson endorsement, have gone a long way in fixing his poll numbers for now. "

No, this is just the speech. The endorsement momentum is yet to be felt.

We all know polls taken at this point mean very little to the actual outcome of these elections, but this poll does show that Sen. Obama was able to take the best 'swift-boating' Fox News et al could throw at him and still stand tall. I don't see how anyone (john edwards!!) can continue to doubt his toughness and tenacity...

Fox news and the rest can manufacture anything, but if achieves nothing - accept to make them look small - then why be afraid. Let's be ready and prepared for anything, but let's also remember that Barack Obama is not John Kerry!

These polls don't do much- at best they capture the swing in public opinion, and the depth and length of it is almost unmeasurable. But I agree, Richardson endorsement gives certain validity and will help. Especially, when Hispanic voters begin to know the the H camp compared the governor with Judas and dismissed his endorsement as insignificant;

They are saying Richardson is today is because of Bill Clinton. So, can we now say Whatever Hillary is today is because of her husband? Nonsense

Give the man some credit for his own intellect, talent and politics- the way you should also give the credit for Hillary.

Let me be the first concern troll to step up to the plate. As to the endorsement power of the mighty Bill Richardson--well, I hope he has more mojo than Obama's Boyz from Massacusetts. (The beard doesn't help, either. Is he on vacation?) And I don't think we've heard the last sound bite from Rev. Wright. They'll be played every time Obama tries to unite us under his banner of hope. If he wants to win, he'd better drop that loser rhetoric and start talking like somebody who can actually do something.

Now now. It's not Eric's fault. He's trying. It's his EDITOR, DT.

Last Dog Death Watch Continues.....

8/10? Is that all? Check out the CBS poll. Obama's "uniter" numbers don't look very good. (But thanks for not calling me nasty names.)

The bigger reason why these polls are meaningless is because Hillary has already lost the nomination. It's just that she, Bill, a bunch of her supporters and the media aren't ready to face the facts.

Silver herron,

Clinton is not cheap . . . She is broke . . . Just like her running-mate McCain.

McCain-Clinton '08

Hi Jenn.

No need to guess - I get it. Nice to see you, too.

"l really am worried now about how the Clintonite concern trolls will take this.
Posted by observer2"

Funny...

Spirited Clinton adviser tells the New York Times that New Mexican governor's backing Obama during Holy Week was "appropriate" and "ironic" because it was like Judas selling out Jesus.

"Mr. Richardson's endorsement came right around the anniversary of the day when Judas sold out for 30 pieces of silver, so I think the timing is appropriate, if ironic," Mr. Carville said, referring to Holy Week.

TOTALLY AGREE!!!!!!!!!!!

I agree that the polls are irrelevant.

Obama The Great Deceiver will be shown for what he is more and more.

Clinton will win the remaining important primaries and have momentum going to the convention.

New scandals will taint Obama (the homophobic angle has not even seen the light of day....yet).

The DNC rules committee will establish new rules at the convention to resolve the stalemate as both candidates will be unable to clinch the nomination. All delegates will be released to vote as they wish. There will be lots of horse trading. Obama will cry foul.

By the convention Clinton's star will be rising, Obama The Deceiver's setting.

Neck and neck in the stretch, at the wire it's...it's...Clinton by a nose!

Whew. That was exciting.

Clinton vs. McCain.

fogu2,

Yeah, that was probably exciting for you, but before long you'll wake up from your wet dream into the cold light of reality.

Or maybe you won't. But if you're actually a Democrat we could use you in the real world the Fall when we try to take the White House away from the Republicans. Which will be a very important thing to do.

Ok, so Obama is God, what is the big deal?

Obama is my kind of guy, he learns from his own mistakes. He is humble and caring. He is a level headed individual, with tremendous amount of wisdom.

I don't know how he became what he is today, but I am glad he decided to show up on the national scene!

I have to think his background has something to do wth it. Does he speak another language? I know he can say: "Si, se puede." which is "Yes we can in Spanish. I can say: "Fuck yeah we can."

Now, we also know that Obama has been VERY successful at communicating. Basic, down to earth, old fashion communicator. People like to see him talk, just talk, 20K or so, or maybe even more, show up when he shows up! I always say, I LOVE to watch him THINK! Yes think. To me, he is the most articulate, clear thinking, logical, pragmatic leader...I do love to watch him think.

When he gets a question, no matter what it is or from whom, he pauses, focuses, and then gives you this brilliant response, then you go WOW! I usually stand up and start clapping in my living room.

Obama also says STUFF about hope and our future, he makes you want to be positive, he makes you want to work HARDER to help your country move forward. He says things about all of us working together to accomplish more. His words are like those posters you see in the office of your Sales Manager at work (if you ever worked in sales), highly motivational, soaring with the eagles, instead of pecking with the chicken, type of advice!

Obama himself is an example of what America could be. When I am feeling down I find myself playing videos of some of his speeches. I go back to the 2004 convention speech, makes me cry every time.

I also watched his speech this week about race, about 12 times. I also watch the Ted Kennedy endorsement speech, then from now on, I will be watching the Richardson endorsement over and over.
Kennedy and Richardson are people I respect, the words they used were powerful and touching. I love to watch grown man, experienced man, show affection, when they KNOW that there IS a there, there!

Nutshell: I am not suprised to see Obama rise to the mountain top!

You think it is far fetched that neither candidate will clinch the nomination?

You think it is far fetched that Clinton will win many of the most important upcoming primaries?

You think that it is far fetched that the rules committee will have to figure out a way to break the deadlock at the convention?

You think that the scandals will not continue with Obama? (ask him why he repeatedly refuses to have his picture taken with the mayor of San Francisco, who temporarily legalized gay marriage, even though he appeared at Obama fundraisers.)

You my Obamish friends are the ones that need to exit the Thetan spaceship and come back to Earth.

This is not even close to being over.

(from the battle deck of the Klingon bird of prey...fck some Thetans)

fogu2 wants to know why Obama wouldn't have his picture taken with Gavin Newsom (San Fran mayor)

As Lewis Black would say - It's them queers! (fogu2 wants you to think Barack is a homophobe!)

Or maybe it's just because Newsom endorsed Hillary?

No, no, there's something else...because it was the fact that Barack ducked out on photo-ops with Newsom that made Newsom piss off and endorse Clinton

Oh, I remember. It was the fact that Newsom, even though married to something close to a supermodel, still had to bang and rebang the wife of his best friend and chief of staff...and then drag all parties through a humiliating press conference (which he seemed to enjoy)

Got his own agenda much?

So, fogu2...looks like you just fogged yourself

Seriously folks...limbic brains like this don't just walk in to TPM off the street. They are getting paid. Don't feed the trolls!

fogu2,

No, you're right. It's not really over, and neither candidate can clinch the nomination based on the remaining primaries. But it's close to over.

It's fine with me if HC plays it out a while longer. I just want her to maintain some sort of focus on what's good for the Democratic Party, and be less willing to damage Obama, who will very likely be the Party's nominee in the Fall. That's all I ask, and due to the obvious importance of this election, it shouldn't be too much to ask. But she, Bill and her campaign continue to have problems with this.

THIS IS EXCELLENT NEWS!! FOR HILLARY!!!

Yes. Been keeping the numbers myself since the beginning (I'm a bit nerdy, I admit.)

First of all, the pledged delegate count has been Obama's since the Potomac primaries (thank you Virginia! Clinton's campaign never expected that 35% to 64% loss.)

In the remaining primaries, Obama wins in IN and NC should offset Clinton's win in PA. Clinton win in KY is offest by Obama win in OR. Clinton win in WV is offset by Obama win in MT and SD. Puerto Rico and Guam are unknown, but not enough delegates to matter.

Richardson was my first choice, so am more than happy to see him support Obama, and hope other super delegates follow quickly. Hillary's knee-capping has to end. Carville gave his life up when he married Cheney's gal Mary, and he and Bill Clinton have both lost what it takes.

Hasn't the pledged delegate count been Obama's since Iowa?

Well, yes, in a way. And Obama has won every month so far. But the % win that Clinton could expect, in looking at her history, made it improbable to expect a win of the nomination after the Potomac. The numbers (probabilities) really stacked up against her at that point.

the longer hillary stays in the more it is hurting our other democrat candidates. many republican senators that are running would be toast if the democrat challengers could ride along on obama's coattails. Instead, hillary & obama are fighting and mccain is getting away with major errors.

Yes, precisely, Mr. Hyperrevue.

"Oh, I see. You're saying he clinched the pledged delegates after the Potomac."

When you see the post-mortem of this primary, Virginia will be the key.

Obama and Hill are playing for second place. Neither one of them has a chance in the general election.

Get used to it- President McCain

the wright matter is a molehill -- what worries me is that americans always shiver with fright when the warmongers start forcing the leading democrats into a corner -- americans have little at stake in a war, or so they think, because military service is voluntary: as long as it's just the neighbor's kid who's stationed in iraq, americans can sit on their ample haunches, munching on anything that will make them fatter -- if charlie rangel were to succeed in bringing about a national service program, all families would have a stake in war, so they would be likelier to oppose war -- but as things are, when bush & cheney launch an attack against iran, leading democrats will cheer & americans will shift toward supporting mccain -- the american anti-war movement is a front: it's actually an anti-draft movement & it thrives on the continuing war in iraq, which only adds to the ranks of those opposing charlie rangel's plan -- in sum, our country is fated to keep waging war till it collapses

Freetospeak,

Thank you for posting your comment. I think you summed up why a lot of us feel the way we do about Obama.

Your guy is a homophobe. It's going to come out (pun intended) and once again he will have to explain.

Any other black stereotype you want to come up with about Obama and post?

Jesus.

Right. A homophobe who advocates for gay civil rights?

In Illinois he co-sponsored a bill prohibiting workplace and housing discrimination against gays AND transgenders. In the Senate he's co-sponsored bills to extend domestic benefits to gay federal employees. On the stump he advocates for the Matthew Shepard Act and for a federal non-discrimination act.

I was cut off above, but I was going to say that, alas, it is less damaging politically to be homophobic than to advocate for gay civil rights. I wish I lived in a world where homophobia could cost someone an election, but unfortunately this is not the case. Obama is taking the politically difficult, but right route. I wish he would call for full marriage, but I think this is best done a step at a time, too--and at least he supports a full repeal of DOMA, unlike Hillary.

.

Well I had determined that I was going to quit my Obama bashing and hope that the media would do a better job now that Obama's true colors had started to emerge.

I should have known better; This morning on the Chris Mathews show, Mathews tried to spin the "For the first time in my adult life, I am proud of my country" statement by using the corrected speech that Obama campaign put out to try to correct the record on what she had been saying on the stump.

The first time I heard this spin - this lie - was by Bill Schneider of CNN: When an outraged Lou Dobbs interviewed him regarding her statements, Bill Schneider kept correcting Dobbs that she said "really" proud meaning that she was always proud but now she was really proud.

She had given the original version of the speech several times before it came to her campaign's attention that people were feeling outraged by the statement and it might hurt the campaign when it was re-played as it was then sure to be. They then made the calculated decision to put out a new version of the speech rather than dropping the statement altogether, adding the word "really" to distort what she had orignally stated.

They had to do that since to just stop making the speech would not solve their problem since the statement was already out there on video. So they did the next best thing; Put out a video with the modified speech and hope it would be copied as much as the former and thereby mitigate the damage done. So they started making the modified speech to spin that argument.

And now Chris Mathews who is an Obama cheerleader like everyone else over at MSNBC, actually corrected his guest this morning who referred to that now infamous statement, saying that "she said 'really proud' " .

So I looked for a clip of the original speech and found this video which I was glad someone made, which shows how she changed the speech that day. After her modification, she stopped giving the speech altogether.

We know what she meant just like we know now, what her Pastor Wright meant. Neither, love this country or respect it.

SEE VIDEO BELOW AND JUDGE FOR YOURSELF:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EGjR81pFJI4