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Gallup: Obama Narrowly Ahead Of Hillary Nationally
Today's Gallup tracking poll shows a close national race between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton, in a campaign that has been characterized recently by repeated swings back and forth. Here are the numbers, compared to yesterday:
Obama 47% (-1)
Clinton 45% (+0)
Meanwhile, Gallup has the two of them doing equally well against John McCain:
Obama (D) 46%, McCain (R) 44%
Clinton (D) 47%, McCain (R) 45%
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Daily results? Really?
I think we all realize these are POINTLESS at this stage of the game.
March 12, 2008 1:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
No kidding. Here's a question for Kleefeld and Sargent, TPM's poll flunkies: Do they read their own page?
Election Central has the National Poll tracking graphic.... right there:
----->
Do they realize we can all see it? The story it tells is more comprehensive than random polls, and is basically the same as it's been for weeks.
Yet TPM's poll flunkies still feel compelled to pick a poll, at random, and report it as somehow more important "news." Come on. That's goofy "Situation Room" nonsense.
March 12, 2008 4:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
Rasmussen has it much higher.
March 12, 2008 1:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
seems Hillary's tearing down of Obama is having the desired affect. At least we'll know who to thank come November and a McCain victory over the Illinois senator.
March 12, 2008 1:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
Don't really care. National polls are meaningless both in the Democratic primary and in the general election matchups. Obama is winning the primary by a large margin in virtually every possible measurement, and he does MUCH better than Hillary against McCain in individual states, blue, purple and red.
March 12, 2008 2:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/democratic_presidential_nomination-191.html
Take a look at the chart
March 12, 2008 2:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks Hussein!
That chart on realclearpolitics really shows the reality of what is happening over the long term. I think it speaks for itself, and is worth looking at....
March 12, 2008 3:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's interesting that you folks keep blaring this on the front page when things are tight or Clinton takes a small lead, but ignore this poll when it's more favorable to Obama. You could avoid this appearance of inconsistency by recognizing that with 10 contests remaining, this polling is irrelevant (something that's been true since February 5th).
Just something to chew on.
March 12, 2008 2:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
Don't worry. TPM is trying to help Obama manage expectations!
/snark? /spin? It's hard to tell the difference these days.
March 12, 2008 3:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hillary's "big state" electability argument? Not really:
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/3/12/12552/6475/923/475043
March 12, 2008 2:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't like to accues TPM of bias, but it doesn't help that the one day they choose not to tout the Gallup poll on their front page was March 9th the day Obama showed a 5 point lead, the largest for any candidate since February.
Let's just skp the daily updates on the tracking polls.
March 12, 2008 2:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
Look folks, getting made at a blog about politics for reporting on polling results you don't like is kind of like, well the way Hillaryis44.org has a section devoted to polls that show Hillary ahead (and only polls that show her ahead).
Up or down, these national polls do matter because they are crucial to Hillary's attempts to persuade superdelegates that the won't pay a catastrophic price at the polls if they join her plot to steal the nomination.
March 12, 2008 2:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's because he is black.. Did you know he carried the overwhelming black vote in Idaho, Wyoming, Maine and Utah? (snark)
March 12, 2008 3:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
The "error" in the "margin of error" is random. So that 10 times very slowly until you absorb it. The true preference for the candidates may not change at all and yet this kind of sample will bounce around, making it look like trends, up and downs, reversal, etc....
It's one thing to report the number, another to attempt commentary to explain the ups or down when you can hardly account for the random aspect within the entire range we have observed for almost a month.
March 12, 2008 4:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
Maybe it's me, but I don't seem to remember the Gallup numbers getting a headline in Election Central when Barack was up 49-44 after the "week from hell". That being a recovery from four days previous when Hillary had gained a four point lead late last week, 48-44. Maybe someone can tell me if I missed it.
March 12, 2008 6:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
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May 14, 2008 4:32 AM | Reply | Permalink